Panda to black swan final

Propellernet / Search and Social Experts

From Panda to Black Swan...via Turkeys and Guinea Pigs

Why are we surprised?

Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

1. The event is a surprise (to the observer)

2. The event has a major impact

3. The event is later rationalised by hindsight, as if it could have been expected

Defining black swan events...

Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

What is a Black Swan surprise for the turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for the turkey farmer

It depends on your point of view

One piece of advice I give to SEO masters is, don't chase after Google's algorithm, chase after your best interpretation of what users want, because that's what Google's chasing after.

Matt Cutts (Google) (2011)

But shouldn’t we bean industry of turkey farmers?!

UK Search Engine Market ShareFebruary 2012 - Experian Hitwise

GoogleBingYahoo!AskOthers91%

It’s not just good, old-fashioned altruism...

A Black Swan isn’t always a Panda

Tough love hurts...

At 7pm EST on Wednesday 9 February, JC Penney was the number one result for ‘Samsonite carry on luggage.’

By 9pm it was number 71

At 7pm on Wednesday, Penney was number one for ‘living room furniture.’

By 9pm it was number 68

... one moment Penney was the most visible online destination for living room furniture in the country.

The next it was essentially buried.

In other words...

[Cutts] said Google had detected previous guidelines violations related to JCPenney.com on three occasions... Each time, steps were taken that reduced Penney’s search results - Cutts avoids the word “punished” - but Google did not later “circle back” to the company to see if it was still breaking the rules.

Was JC Penney hit by a Black Swan?

Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

While it's easy to wonder how Google missed JC Penney's paid backlinks... the bigger question is how JC Penney apparently missed them too. 

Or an Invisible Gorilla?

Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

JC Penney did not authorize, and we were not involved with or aware of, the posting of the links that you sent to us, as it is against our natural search policies...

Or is it just ‘complicated’?

Identify areas of vulnerability to turn black swans white

Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

In 2012, I believe Google's search quality folks will roll out algorithmic changes in how they value low quality links that help them regain pride in their work.

The embarrassment and quality gap caused by linkspam is egregious and, if left to stand, gives competitors an opening while simultaneously weakening searchers' trust in Google's results.

Ready to roll...

Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

Just as "content farms" took their hits in 2011, I think link spam's up for some blows in 2012.

with the punches?

This is what some of your peers said

Everybody else is doing it

It works At worst Google will discount those links

Fast, short term results dominate our culture. My boss wants results now... and fast

Clients are asking us to produce results fast. We’re on a performance deal so paid links help us to achieve results...

“I’ve got a huge monthly bill for paid links and I don’t even know if they are working...

60% of respondents pay for links

40%

29%

32%

Attitudes to paid links and risk - 201265 respondents - we’d like more! goo.gl/gFptc

Do you pay for (followed) links as part of your SEO strategy?

57% are confident paid links are working...

57%

7%

36%

Attitudes to paid links and risk - 201265 respondents - we’d like more! goo.gl/gFptc

If you do buy (followed) links, do you think they are working for you?

10% of bosses / clients are in the dark....

54%

10%

37%

Attitudes to paid links and risk - 201265 respondents - we’d like more! goo.gl/gFptc

If you do buy (followed) links, does your boss/client understand your strategy and risks involved?

Visualising (in)vulnerability

Visualising vulnerability

Visualising vulnerability – life after Guinea Pig

Will experience in attempting to simulate reputation stand you in good stead this year?

What about 2013? And 2014?

What’s your insurance policy?

It’s a bit of a worry given that 50% ofSEO success is down to online reputation

How do you manage risk?

How transparent is activity?

How much do your colleagues understand about the decisions you’re taking and the reasoning behind them?

All images ©BBC

If we don’t start to innovate in these areas then others will

Are you ready for PR agencies to lead digital?!

Do we want to be directors or technicians?

Let’s go back to the turkey farm

Propellernet / Search and Social Experts

That’s it...

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