Panama Canal Outlook Jorge L. Quijano Administrator/CEO Panama Canal Authority Japan – November 21, 2014
Panama Canal Outlook
Jorge L. Quijano
Administrator/CEO
Panama Canal Authority
Japan – November 21, 2014
Yesterday
PANAMA AT A GLANCE
GDP growth rate – last 10 years 7.5%
GDP (P) 2013 (billion of dollars) $42.6
GDP per capita - 2013 (P)(in US$) $10,032
Population (million) 3.8
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.0
Inflation Rate 2013 (%) 4.1
Source: ACP/INEC (Contraloría General de la República) 2014.
The Panama Canal Trade and Main Users
* Measured in Million of Long Tons
Total Cargo Movement FY 2014 Total Cargo Movements
224.9 Million Long Tons USERS FY 2013* FY 2014* 2014 (%)
United States 136.5 154.1 68.5
China 46.4 51.5 22.8
Chile 29.0 29.5 13.1
Japan 20.0 21.7 9.5
Colombia 17.5 19.2 8.6
South Korea 16.8 19.1 8.5
Composition of Top 40 Customers by Country – In Tolls and Transits
239
210
162
109 107 97
88 87 80 77
57 54
28 23 19 19 9
1,140
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Tran
sits
Tolls
in M
illio
n D
olla
rs
Tolls Transits
Main Commodities to and from Japan in FY 2014
Total of 21.7 million long tons
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Origin
Destination
• 3.0% of world maritime trade
• 10.6% of grains
• 5.8% of chemicals
• 4.7% of containers
Panama Canal’s share of global seaborne trade
The Panama Canal’s Performance
2014 Transit Revenues (thousand of US dollars) $2,323,931
2014 Other Revenues (thousand of US dollars) $305,220
2014 Total Revenues (thousand of US dollars) $2,629,151
Employees 10,016
14,544
13,660
13,482
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2012 2013 2014
Vessel Transits
333.7 320.6 326.8
0
200
400
2012 2013 2014
Vessel Tonnage In millions of PC/UMS
1,852 1,850 1,910 395 374 414
163 187 305
2,411 2,411 2,629
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2012 2013 2014
Mill
ion
s o
f d
olla
rs
Fiscal Year
Revenues
Toll Revenues Transit Related Services Revenues Other Revenues
The Panama Canal’s value added service
The Panama Canal Service Offer
Reliability
Sustainability
Connectivity
Economies of Scale
Reliability
• Operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year
• Safe and secure
• 98% customer satisfaction
• Predictability: Published tariffs and fixed transit date with reservation
Sustainability – The Green Route
• The actions taken by ACP: Environmental management in operations and Canal Watershed sustainability programs
• The CO2 emission reduction in the planet as
a result of the Panama Canal route
• Become carbon neutral
Sustainability – Capital Investment Program
Fuel Pipeline and Tank Farm Tugboats Ground dams
Bridge over Atlantic side
Dredging
Launches
102 211
350 463
600 750
912 1,027
1,194 1,262 1,360
1,548
1,869
2,232 2,403
2,914
102 109 139 113 137 150 162 115 167
68 98 188
321 363
171
511
FY 2000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Accumulated Investment – Capex
(USD millions)
Panama: The Transportation and Logistics Hub of the Americas
Achieving the maximum potential of its geographical position
• 144 trade routes • 1700 ports • 160 countries
Panama’s Air Hub • 69 destinations • 30 countries
Connectivity
Economies of Scale
4,400 TEU’s 33.5 m (110’)
32.3 m (106’)
12.8 m (42’)
12.04 m (39.5’)
Existing Locks Max Vessel:
55 m (180’)
13,000 – 14,000 TEU’s
Beam 49 m (160’)
18.3 m (60’)
15.2 m (50’)
New Locks Max Vessel Size:
Dimensions of Locks and Vessels
Atlantic Site Post-Panamax Locks
Pacific Site Post-Panamax Locks
Atlantic entrance deepening and
widening
17.66 M m3
Pacific entrance deepening and widening
8.7 M m3
Increase of Gatun Lake’s maximum operating level
26.7 m 27.1 m
Gatun Lake widening and deepening and widening of Gaillard Cut ‘s navigation
channels
Pacific Access Channel 49 M m3
New
Locks ►
Access
channel ►
Existing Locks ▼
Existing Locks ▼
Expansion Program Components
BENEFITS FROM TRANSPORTATION COST SAVINGS
EXPORTERS SHIPPING LINES IMPORTERS CONSUMERS
Economies of scale; efficiencies in the supply chain; connectivity
Container Vessels
13,000 to 14,000 TEU
New volumes from:
- Latin America
Market Recovery from:
- West Coast United States
- Suez Canal
Dry Bulk
Up to 170,000 DWT - Coal from Colombia
- Metalurgical coal from Vancouver
- Iron Ore from Brazil in Minicapesize (85,000-120,000 DWT)
Liquid Bulk
Up to 150,000 DWT
- Tankers
- Petroleum Products
LNG/LPG
- LNG Up to 177,000m3
and VLGC
Rotterdam Antwerp
Bremerhaven Hamburg
Guayaquil
Callao
San Antonio
Cartagena
Long Beach
Kingston
P. Caucedo
Manzanillo P. Cabello
Chiwan
Shanghai
Ningbo
Kaohsiung
Qingdao
Hong Kong
Galveston
Miami
Brunswick
Charleston
New York
Napier
Noumea
Tilbury
San Juan PR
Antofagasta
Taipei
Yokohama Port Hueneme
Oakland
Baltimore
Melbourne Tauranga
Port Kembla
Auckland
Vancouver
Balboa
Seattle
Lázaro Cardenas
Pto. Quetzal
Buenaventura
Vancouver
Singapore
Tacoma
Inchon
Masan
Kobe Nagoya
Fremantle
Brisbane
Zarate
Rio Grande
Paranagua
Santos
Vitoria
Veracruz
Newark
Darwin
Muara
Manila
Jakarta
Jacksonville
Halifax
Freeport
Roundtrip:
• Panama Canal: 22,000 nm
• Suez Canal: 26,600 nm
• Approx. 14 days less
• Savings of 4,600 nm
• 2 Vessels less required
84 Days Roundtrip.
Weighted Avg.
Total Cost per TEU 5,000 TEU $1,430
8,000 TEU $1,254
12,000 TEU $1,138
70 Days Roundtrip.
Weighted Avg.
Total Cost per TEU 5,000 TEU $1,356
8,000 TEU $1,200
12,000 TEU $1,095
Average roundtrip utilization: 60% full TEU
• Headhaul: 80% full TEU
• Backhaul: 40% full TEU
Full Containership Services Northeast Asia – East Coast of the United States
Dry Bulk Grain Trade Grain Belt New Orleans, USA to Dalian, China
Fremantle
Brisbane
Darwin
Jakarta
Sources: ACP Route Choice Model
Norway Oslo Tórshavn
Rotterdam Antwerp
Denmark
Santa Marta
Los Angeles
Chiwan
Shanghai
Ningbo
Kaohsiung
Qingdao
Hong Kong
New Orleans
Charleston
New York
Napier
Noumea
London
Taipei
Yokohama San Francisco Baltimore
Melbourne Tauranga
Port Kembla
Auckland
Vancouver
Seattle
Vancouver
Singapore
Inchon
Masan
Kobe Nagoya
Fremantle
Brisbane
Darwin
Muara
Manila
Jakarta
Boston
45 Days
55K DWT: $77/MT
95K DWT: $67/MT
Panama Canal
Sea distance: 10,069 nm
Dalian
Savings of 5,284 nm
Approx. 16 days less
61 Days
55K DWT: $86/MT
95K DWT: $73/MT
Cape of Good Hope
Sea distance: 15,353 nm
30 Days
55K DWT: $103/MT
95K DWT: $98/MT
Vehicle Carrier Services Northeast Asia – East Coast of the United States
32 Days
Shipping Cost 6,500CEU $454/CEU 8,000CEU
$440/CEU
Panama Canal: 10,859 nm
Suez Canal: 14,490 nm
Approx. 8 days less
Savings of 3,631 nm
40 Days
Shipping Cost 6,500CEU $532/CEU 8,000CEU
$512/CEU
Miami
Rotterdam Antwerp
Bremerhaven Hamburg
Guayaquil
Callao
San Antonio
Cartagena
Long Beach
Kingston
P. Caucedo
Manzanillo P. Cabello
Chiwan
Shanghai
Ningbo
Kaohsiung
Qingdao
Hong Kong
Galveston Brunswick
Charleston
New York
Napier
Noumea
Tilbury
San Juan PR
Antofagasta
Taipei
Yokohama Port Hueneme
Oakland
Baltimore
Melbourne Tauranga
Port Kembla
Auckland
Vancouver
Balboa
Seattle
Lázaro Cardenas
Pto. Quetzal
Buenaventura
Vancouver
Singapore
Tacoma
Inchon
Kobe Nagoya
Fremantle
Brisbane
Zarate
Rio Grande
Paranagua
Santos
Vitoria
Veracruz
Newark
Darwin
Muara
Manila
Jakarta
Jacksonville
Halifax
Freeport
Masan
{
Lower 48 States Shale Plays
Source: Energy Information Administration, May 9, 2011.
LNG Trade – U.S. Gulf to Fukuoka, Japan
22 Days
Shipping Cost
LNG 155,000 m3: $33.7/m3
Panama Canal: 9,623 nm Savings of 4,494 nm
Approx. 10 days less
32 Days
Shipping Cost
LNG 155,000 m3: $47.56/m3
Suez Canal: 14,117 nm
LPG Trade – U.S. Gulf to Chiba, Japan
Panama Canal: 9,229 nm
Savings of 5,754 nm
Approx. 15 days less Cape of Good Hope:
15,765 nm