Pakistan's Renewable Energy prospects_an update

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Renewable Energy : Prospects Update

IEEEP Annual Conference March 2013

Akhtar Ali Pro-Plan Associates

[email protected]

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Renewables share in Total Energy

Global = 17-18% O/W Traditional Biomass = 9% Other renewable = 8% 30 Countries have a share of more than 20% EU & US = 12% Europe & Majors = 10% Japan = 6%

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Global ScenarioShare of Renewable Energy

2030 2040 2050Conservative 10 – 15 15 -Moderate 22 35 40High 40% 60 80

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Share of Renewable Electricity

Countries Existing 2030 2050

Europe 21% 36 – 65 97 – 100

US 11% 15 – 71 30 – 90

Japan 10% 20 – 57 85 – 100

China 18% 25 – 43 50 – 92

India/Other Asia 31% 16 – 62 27 – 86

LA 54 – 86 60 – 100

Africa 50 34 – 92

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World Capacities of various Renewable Technologies - Status & Projections GW

2006 2011 2030

Hydro 800 970 1300 – 1740

Wind 74 238 920 – 2700

Solar PV 8 70 490 – 1000

CSP 0.40 1.8 40 – 140

Biomass 45 72 210 – 340

Geo thermal 9.5 11 30 – 50

Ocean 0.3 0.5 10 – 20

938+ 1362

World Total 4000

USA 900

Pakistan 25

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Countries Share in various RENUSA GER Spain Italy China India Japan ROW

Solar PV % 5.7 35.6 6.5 18.3 4.4 7.1

Solar Heating Added Capacity%

0.9 1.9 0.6 0.8 81% 1.5 8.1

Solar Heating Total Capacity%

1 5% 4 64.8 1.5

Wind Power Additions MW

4.8 2 1.1 17 3

WP total capacity MW

42 28 20 45 13

Hydro % Total 49 6

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Comparative features of various Renewable Technologies

Plant Size MW Capacity Factor %

Energy Cost US Cents / kwh

Biomass 25 – 100 70 – 80 7.9 – 17.6

Geo thermal 1 – 100 60 – 90 5.7 – 10.7

Hydro Power Grid base 1 – 18000 30 – 60 5 – 10

Micro Hydro 0.1 – 1000 kw - 5 – 40

Ocean (Tidal) 1 – 250 23 – 29 21 – 28

Solar PV roof top 3.5 kw 10 – 20 22

Solar PV Utility 2.5 – 100 10 – 20 20

Wind Power on shore 1.5 – 3.5 20 – 40 5.21 – 16.5

Biogas CHP 0.5 – 5 MW 80 11.8 – 35.2 USD/GJ

Bio diesel 16.5 – 177

Ethanol 20 – 102/L

Renewable Energy Cost TrendsLevelized cents/kWh in constant $20001

Wind

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

PVC

OE

ce

nts

/kW

h

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

40

30

20

10

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

BiomassGeothermal Solar thermal

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO

E c

en

ts/k

Wh

10

8

6

4

2

0

70

60

50

40

30

2010

0

15

12

9

6

3

0

Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.Updated: October 2002

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Wind Power in Pakistan• 2X50 MW projects already installed(Zorlu,FFC)• Several at Planning Stage• Total Potential Sindh-30,000 MW• Actual Potential : 10% of Total(2500 MW)• High Capacity Factor-31%• Unrealistically High Tariff-16 cents per kWh

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Feed in Tariff in EU RegionWind Power

5.11

7.4 7.5 7.78 7.80 8.6110.21 10.21 10.65

11.67 11.9613.00

17.21

0.002.004.006.008.00

10.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.00

US c

ents

/kw

h

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Wind Power capacity factors in selected countries%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

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Wind Is The Cheapest Power Source in Uruguay

• The average winning price in a recent Uruguayan auction for three 50MW wind power projects was US $63.70 per MWh. The cost of diesel or fuel-oil generated electricity in Uruguay is $135 – 140 per MWh.

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Wind Power in Brazil is Cheaper than Gas

• Developers of 44 wind farms bid an average of BRZ$99.58 (US$62) per MWh – below the average price for the two natural gas projects (BRZ$103.26), and a hydro project (BRZ$102)

• 1 USD=2 BRZ• http://www.greenwellfuture.com/

wind_power_in_brazil

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Comparative Solar Suitability of regions

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Solar PV Cells

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Family of PV cells and efficiencies

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Solar PV applications and Business models thereof

•Residential/small off-grid•Residential grid integrated•Utility distributed•Utility Power Plant

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Off-grid Solar PV application

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Grid Connected Residential PV application

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Schematic layout of Solar PV utility Power Plant

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Solar PV Cost & Tariff in various countries(2013)

Capital Cost USD/W Tariff CapacityPV Panels BoS Total Usc/kWh Factor%

India(regulated) 0.63 0.85 1.481 16.2 19India Auctions 11.8-15.9Europe(Germany) 0.78 0.9 1.68 17.55 10Spain/Italy 15.6 14.8USA(Calif,Texas,Florida) 15-17 18California Auctions 8.92-12 19Pakistan(proposed) 2.392 23.29 17_______________________________________________________________________

Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, PV-magazine, NEPRA)

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Comparative CAPEX for Solar PV utilities(centralized)in various regions(2013)in USD/W

India China Europe/USUS target 2020 (Sunshot)

Total(panels+ BoS)o/w 1.481 1.35 1.681 1

Panels 0.63 0.5 0.78 0.5

BOS o/w 0.85 0.85 0.9 0.5

land Civil Works(% of BoS) 14 0.2

Racking structures-do 13 0.2

Inverter-do 7 0.18

Grid Interface/do 15 0.12

Various incl IDC/do 10 0.2

Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, Solar Server, GTM Market Study)

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Comparative Solar PV Installed costs 2012-13(USD/W)IRTPV-March2013

Europe USA ChinaPV Module 0.69 0.69 0.50BoS 0.47 1.00 0.57Owner’s Cost(say)

0.25 0.25 0.25

Total 1.41 1.94 1.32

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Pakistan Projected Demand of REN(2025-50)

2013 2025 2050

Total Installed Capacity

25000 MW 50,000 MW 150,000 MW

REN Share(10,20,40%)

2500 10000 60,000

Wind 1500 5000 30,000

Solar PV 1500 5000 30,000

Hydro 6000 15000 30,000

Bio-Mass-gas BioCNG

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Pakistan Solar PV Tubes well market

•Total Tube well = 1,000,000•o/w Diesel = 834905 – 11000 MW• Electric = 85868 – 1104 MW• 40% run less than 800 hrs•Bulk of the Pumps 11-75 ft head •75-80% of Tube Wells in Punjab•Diesel – Number of days of Tube Well per year = 125•Electric Number of days of Tube Well per year = 184•10 – 15 -20 – 22 – 25 HP Avg 17•Replacement demand = 400,000 (1994 and older)•Average annual demand = 30,000 pumps @ 10 kw per = 300 MW/pr say = 100 MW (for 10,000 pumps)

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Item units Amount/ValueSolar PV capacity kW 15Capacity factor hours 1600Annual Electricity produced kWh 24000Replacement cost of Diesel Rs/kWh 25Annual Diesel replacement Rs/yr 600000CAPEX Solar PV and Pump Rs 1800000Investment Payback Period years 3Equity @30% Rs 540000Loan Rs 1260000Repayment period years 10interest rate %p.a 14Annual Debt servicng Rs 241,559 Annual saving for first 10 yrs Rs 298,441 Equity payback Period yrs $1.81 Present Value of 25 yrs saving Rs 5,446,224 Net Present Value @10% Rs 3,646,224 IRR % 33.31Electricity cost in1-10 years Rs/kWh 10.06 Electricity cost in11-25 years 0

Micro-economics of Solar PV in Tube-well visa-vis Diesel EngineCase study of a 15 kW Solar Tube-well replacing diesel engine

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ISSUES

•T & D Losses•High cost of Energy (circular debt)•High Capital Costs•Institutional Issues•Lack of Transparency•Lack of Competitions•Local content /technology

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