Page 1Rainer Münz E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G Rainer Münz KNOMAD Seminar Washington DC, May 1 st, 2014 Will International Migration Continue Forever?

Page 1Rainer Münz

E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G

Rainer Münz

KNOMAD Seminar

Washington DC, May 1st, 2014

Will International Migration Continue Forever?Reflections on Demography and Migration

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Unequal population growth

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Europe’s and Russia’s population is shrinking, MENA, Africa and W. Asia are growingProjected population growth, 2010-2050, in %

Source: Berlin Institute

to -20 %-20% - -5%-5% - 0%0% - 25%25% - 75%75% - 100%100% - 150%150% - 200%above 200%n. a.

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The main driver of this population change: Very unequal numbers of childrenNumber of children per woman (total fertility), 2010-2015

Source: UN DESA

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During the last six decades, the overall number of children per woman has halved Total fertility by world regions, 1950-2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015

AfricaAsiaEuropeLatin AmericaNorth AmericaOceaniaWorld

Source: UN DESA

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Young and ageing societies

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Since 170 years our life span has always increasedLife expectancy, 1840-2010, in years (highest national value)

Source: Oeppen u. Vauoel 2002

NorwayNew ZealandIslandSwedenJapanNetherlandsSwitzerlandAustralia

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Europe + Japan have the oldest population, MENA, Africa, South + SE Asia are still youngShare of age group 65+ in total population, in %

Source: UN DESA

n. a.

to 3%

3% - 6%

6% - 9%

9% - 12%

12% - 15%

above 15%

Seite 10

Europa wird älter

1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ag

e

in % Männer (2010) Frauen (2010)

Männer (2050) Frauen (2050)

Source: Eurostat

1950

2010

2050

Ag

eEurope is agingPopulation of EU 28 by age and gender

men

men

women (2010)

women (2050)

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Diverging trends affecting future labour forces and possibly labor migration

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The working-age population will shrink in Europe and China, but not in Africa and IndiaPopulation age 20-65, 1950-2050, in mn, by major countries / regions

Source: UN DESA

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Source: based on ILO data 2011

below -5%

-5% - 0%

0% - 10%

10%- 20%

above 20%

The labour supply in Europe and Russia will shrink, but it will increase in MENA and Africa Development of labour force until 2020, in %

?

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Economic imbalances

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Source: IMF

In recent years MENA and Africa were growing while Europe had a recessionAverage real GDP growth, 2008-12, in %

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Emerging markets continue to outgrow the advanced economiesContribution to global GDP growth

Source: Financial Times

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Global migration in history

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Four global flows:-Slave trade-European expansion-Indian migration-Chinese migration

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Northern and Southern

America, The Caribbean

Central Asia, Siberia

Australia, New Zealand

Palestine/Israel

Algeria

South Africa

Migration from Europe to less developed peripheriesEurope’s answer to rapid population growth70 mn Europeans migrated to overseas’ destinations

European expansion, 1750-1960: From settlement to labour migration

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China/Taiwan

Palestine/ Israel

India/ Pakistan

Germany/Austria, Poland/Ukraine, etc.

More migrants in the global South than in the North

World migration, 1945-1950

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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G

Migration pattern today

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Migration(a) stocks:232 million750 million

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Migration(a) flows:40 million

1990 2000 2010 2013

The number of international migrants increases

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population

I = Receiving country’s reported flow E = sending country’s reported flow… = no reported data available

Origin BE CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR IE ITBE I 80 587 4291 … … 3037 … … 1959

E … … … … … … … … …CZ I … 232 9258 … … 388 … … 915

E 78 47 950 2 66 70 283 31 197DK I … 65 2693 … … 764 … … 281

E 511 180 2540 133 229 1720 1333 264 782DE I … 1228 3221 … … 13746 … … 12902

E 4623 8909 2712 597 18106 16236 19060 2415 33802EE I … 4 169 947 … 60 … … 103

E … … … … … … … … …GR I … 57 278 12959 … 273 … … 638

E … … … … … … … … …ES I … 103 1665 14647 … … … … 2051

E 647 34 130 2109 4 38 2474 487 801FR I … 462 1488 18133 … … 8847 … 4647

E … … … … … … … … …IE I … 45 306 2046 … … 1649 … 292

E … … … … … … … … …IT I … 274 895 23702 … … 5796 … …

E 1414 20 155 9778 1 211 895 2933 130

Destination

There is, however, a lot of uncertainty Double-entry matrix for selected EU countries, 2003

Source: James Raymer

International migrants in 2013 by major macro region of origin and destination

In: 8.5 mOut: 36.7 m

In: 18.6 mOut 30.9 m In: 7.9 m

Out: 1.8 m

In: 70.8 mOut: 92.6 m

In: 72.4 mOut: 58.5 m

In: 53.1 mOut: 4.3 m

Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision

Emigrant stock: origin black Immigrant stock: destination yellow

Where do they come from? Where do they go to?International migrants by origin and destination, 1990, 2010, in mn

Source: United Nations, Population Division

Magnet societies: EU, US, Asia

20131990

International migrant stock by macro region, 1990 – 2013, in mn

Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision

Today migrants come from middle- and low-income countries

Net migration rates 2005-2010 (annual average per 1000)

But most of today‘s migrant sending countries will outgrow today‘s receiving countries Average GDP growth forecast, 2012-18 (in % per year)

Data Source: IMF

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Source: Eurostat, UN DESA

Net migration in Europe 2001-2010Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants

.

-2% to 0% 0 to +2+2% to +5%

below -5%-5% to -2%

above +5%

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Source: Eurostat and own calculations 2013

Net migration in Europe 2010-2012Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants

.

-2% to 0% 0 to +2+2% to +5%

below -5%-5% to -2%

above +5%

Direction changed recently

Above income levels of US-$ 9,000 per capita net-emigration stops Annual average net migration per 1000 inhabitants (2005-10)

Data Source: UN; Erste Research

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E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G

Migration patterns tomorrow?

1990 2000 2010 2013

The number of international migrants is projected to increase further

2030

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population

1990 2000 2010 2013

The number of international migrants is projected to increase further

2050

Source: United Nations, Population Division

Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population

Net migratory flows to more developed countries1950-2010 (actual), 2010-2100 (different projections), in mn

All more developed countries USA

xx xx

Source: Joel E. Cohen

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ne

t m

igra

nts

(m

illio

ns)

1950 2000 2050

year

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Ne

t m

igra

nts

(m

illio

ns)

1950 2000 2050

year

UNPDestimate

WPP2010projection

Gravity model

Linear model

Why does it matter?Contribution of international migration to population growth / decline by 2050 as proportion of the total population in 2010

  Per cent

Polynesia -45Micronesia -21Caribbean -14Central America -10Central Asia -8Northern Africa -6Western Africa -4Melanesia -4South-Central Asia -3Southern Asia -3Eastern Africa -2Middle Africa -2South-Eastern Asia -2South America -2Eastern Asia -1Southern Africa 1Eastern Europe 2Western Asia 3Southern Europe 8Western Europe 10Northern Europe 16Northern America 20Australia/New Zealand 36

Source: Francois Pelletier

Where does it matter?Contribution of natural growth and international migration to population growth/decline, 1950-2050 , in mn

04/19/23 39Source: Henning; Cohen

Page 40Rainer Münz

E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G

Thank you for your attention!

[email protected]