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Perspectives on the timing of benefits of forest-based bioenergy

Annette Cowie, Göran Berndes, Tat Smith

Costs of climate changeIn 2010, climate change cost:700 billion USD

0.9% global GDP400,000 deaths per year – 90% children

Climate change + Carbon economy costs 1.2 trillion USDkills 4.975 million

DARA, 2012

Too late to avoid 2° C ? 2° C: target of the Copenhagen Accord to avoid

catastrophic outcomes Already increased by 1 degree At least 0.5 degree unavoidable – in train Without immediate and drastic action we

cannot meet the 2° C target

Task 38

Global Energy Assessment 2012

Task 38Negative emissions options

Afforestation, soil carbon management

Enhanced weathering

Direct air capture

Ocean fertilisation

“BECCS” – Bioenergy+ Carbon Capture &Storage

Atmosphere

Bioenergy – “carbon neutral”

Task 38

Global Energy Assessment 2012

Task 38

Global Energy Assessment 2012

Task 38

Global Energy Assessment 2012

Göran Berndes

Göran Berndes

Göran Berndes

Göran Berndes

Task 38 Climate change effects of biomass and bioenergy systems

IEA Bioenergy“Carbon debt” papers

Holtsmark, B. (2012). “Harvesting in boreal forests and the biofuel carbon debt.” Climatic Change 112(2): 415-428.

Hudiburg, T. W., Law B. E., Wirth C. and Luyssaert S. (2011). “Regional carbon dioxide implications of forest bioenergy production.” Nature Clim. Change 1(8): 419-42

Lamers P., Junginger M., (2013) " The ‘debt’ is in the detail: a synthesis of recent temporal forest carbon analyses on woody biomass for energy." Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorefining, in press.

McKechnie, J., S. Colombo, J. Chen, W. Mabee and H. L. MacLean (2011). “Forest bioenergy or forest carbon? Assessing trade-offs in greenhouse gas mitigation with wood-based fuels.” Environmental Science and Technology 45(2): 789-795.

Schulze, E.-D., C. Körner, B. E. Law, H. Haberl and S. Luyssaert (2012). “Large-scale bioenergy from additional harvest of forest biomass is neither sustainable nor greenhouse gas neutral.” GCB Bioenergy: 4(6): 611-616.

Searchinger, T et al (2009). “Fixing a critical climate accounting error.” Science 326(5952): 527-528.

Walker, T et al (2010). Massachussets Biomass Sustainability and Carbon Policy Study. Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences.

Zanchi, G., N. Pena and D. N. Bird (2010). The upfront carbon debt of bioenergy. Graz, Austria, Joanneum Research.

Task 38IEA Bioenergy Task 38“Climate change effects of biomass and bioenergy systems”

Participating countries:Australia, Brazil, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, USA

Task 38Objectives of Task 38Develop, demonstrate and promote standard methodology for GHG balances

Increase understanding of GHG outcomes of bioenergy and carbon sequestration

Emphasise overall atmospheric impact, whole life cycle

Promote international exchange of ideas, models and scientific results

Aid decision makers in selecting most effective mitigation options

Timing statement published July 2013ieabioenergy.com/iea-publications/

Annette Cowie, Göran Berndes, Tat Smith and others from Tasks 38, 40 and 43

Who is asking?

Task 38Life cycle perspective

Task 38Consider carbon stock change

“direct land use change dLUC”change in land use or management affects C in biomass and soil

Task 38Indirect landuse changeOutside system boundaryForm of “leakage”Off-site carbon stock change, methane, nitrous oxide emissions logging fire drainage of peatlands

Task 38

Fritsche, 2009

Task 38Task 38

Task 38Reference energy systemFossil energy source: average or marginal?Conversion efficiency

Displacement factor= efficiencybio /efficiencyref x CO2ref/CO2bio

Nearly always <1

Task 38Reference land useNatural forestIntegrated food/feed/timber/biomass systems

Task 38Spatial scale?

F Cherubini NTNU

Berndes et al 2011

Göran Berndes

Göran Berndes

Task 38Different perspectives

Stand vs landscape Individual operator vs national government Natural system vs managed system Clock starts at planting vs at harvest Short term vs long term Specific stage vs whole life cycle Biomass only vs integrated forest product system Average vs marginal reference system Debt vs investment

JRC report

http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/bf-ca/sites/bf-ca/files/files/documents/eur25354en_online-final.pdf

Task 38 Climate change effects of biomass and bioenergy systems

IEA BioenergyJRC report

Negative conclusion for forest-based bioenergy – too uncertain therefore too risky

Ignores forest management impacts on forest growth

Accepts as reference “natural carbon carrying capacity” without human intervention

Focus on short term “carbon neutrality”

Task 38 Climate change effects of biomass and bioenergy systems

IEA BioenergyIEA Bioenergy Statement:

Policymakers need to consider the big picture - the whole life cycle, the long term, human influences

Biomass for energy is usually one of several products from a managed forest

Forest C stocks fluctuate (at the stand level) over time and space - a forest is a mosaic of age classes

Forest C stock should be considered across the estate • A function of management and natural factors• May be increasing or decreasing or stable 49

Task 38 Climate change effects of biomass and bioenergy systems

IEA Bioenergy

If C stock decreases (relative to “without bioenergy” scenario), this is an emission that must be compensated through avoiding fossil fuels, before bioenergy gives net mitigation benefit

Loss in C stock can be minimised by investment in intensive forest management

GHG cost is an investment in establishing renewable energy system50

IEA Bioenergy Statement:

Task 38 Climate change effects of biomass and bioenergy systems

IEA Bioenergy

Bioenergy benefits increase in long term

Society should choose how to fill the available “emissions space”

GHG cost of forest bioenergy is an investment in establishing renewable energy system

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IEA Bioenergy Statement:

Task 38

Climate Change Effects of Biomass and Bioenergy Systems

IEA Bioenergy Task 38

http://task38.org/

[email protected]