PAGASA/DOST Workshop on High Resolution Modelling using CCAM May 22, 2009.

PAGASA/DOSTPAGASA/DOST

Workshop on High Resolution Modelling using CCAM May 22, 2009

Background InformationBackground Informationmandated to provide public

weather forecasts and advisories, typhoon and flood warnings,

meteorological /climatological/ astronomical products, and other specialized services primarily for

the protection of life and property, and in support of economic

productivity

PAGASA

Philippine geography & Philippine geography & topographytopography

Archipelago, composed Archipelago, composed of 7,100 islands with low of 7,100 islands with low lying areaslying areas

Due to its geographical Due to its geographical setting, it is considered setting, it is considered as one of the countries as one of the countries of the world most prone of the world most prone to extreme climatic to extreme climatic events.events.

Among longest Among longest coastlines in the world coastlines in the world with 32,400 kms with 32,400 kms (susceptible to storm (susceptible to storm surges)surges)

Highly susceptible to sea Highly susceptible to sea level riselevel rise

OFFICE OF THE ADMINISTRATO

R

CLIMATOLOGY AND

AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION

WEATHER DIVISION

ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL SERVICES

FINANCIAL, PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

DIVISION

ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION

HYDRO-METEOROLOGY

DIVISION

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING

DIVISION

PAGASA REGIONAL SERVICES

DIVISIONS

(5)

FIELD STATIONSPAGASA Approved Rationalization Plan

− Synoptic Stations 58 (w/repairs)− Agromet Stations 21 (w/repairs)− Upper-air Stations 6 (rehab)− Weather Surveillance Radar 5 + 5 Dopplers − AWS 5 + new sites− MTSAT Receiving Facility 2− MODIS Receiving Facility 1 − FY-2D 1− World Area Forecast System (WAFS) 1− NOAA Satellite Receiving Facility 2− WEFAX Receiving Facility 4− Climat stations 90 (good)− CBRON, CBFEWS new sites− Ozone Monitoring− Background Air Pollution Monitoring (BAPMon)

OBSERVATION NETWORKS

Operational PAGASA Stations57 Synoptic Stations20 Agromet Stations90 Climat/Rain Stations.

Network of PAGASA StationsNetwork of PAGASA Stations

MAJOR SERVICESMAJOR SERVICES

Weather ServicesWeather Services

Climatological and Climatological and Agrometeorological ServicesAgrometeorological Services

Hydrometeorological ServicesHydrometeorological Services

Space Technology ApplicationSpace Technology Application

WEATHER SERVICESWEATHER SERVICES

Daily 24-hr Weather Forecast

Five-day Outlook for Selected Key Cities and Areas

Marine Shipping Forecast

Flight Documentation Folder (International, National or General Aviation Flights)

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin/Warning

Gale Warning

Operational Products

Farm Weather Forecasts and Advisories (FWFA)

Climate Impact Assessment for Phil. Agriculture

Tropical Cyclone Warning And Advisories

AGROCLIMATIC SERVICES

CLIMATE VARIABILITY / CLIMATE CHANGE-studies

Climate Information, Monitoring and Prediction

El Niño/La Niña Advisories Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

Monthly Situation and Outlook

Operational Operational ProductsProducts

Ozone Monitoring

Dry Spell Outlook

SOUTHWEST MONSOON (HABAGAT)

NORTHEAST MONSOON (AMIHAN)

LL L

LINTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

Weather Causing Phenomena in the Philippines

Climate Classifications:Type I

Two pronounced season dry from November to April and wet for the rest of the year. maximum rain period coincides with the peak of the southwest monsoon (July to September).

Type II

No dry season with a very pronounced maximum rainfall from November to April and wet for the rest of the year.

Type III

Season not very pronounced relatively dry November to April and wet for the rest of the year

Type IV

Rainfall more or less evenly distributed through out the year

Monthly rainfall for Casiguran

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Monthly rainfall forMactan Cebu

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Monthly rainfall for Zamboanga

020406080

100120140160180200

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Monthly rainfall for Laoag

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Tropical Cyclones tracks in the Western North Tropical Cyclones tracks in the Western North Pacific (WNP)Pacific (WNP)

Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2006 1728 TC ( 1148 entered the PAR) 66% of TC in in WNP enter or formed in the PAR

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

Monthly frequency of T.C. entering Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the the PAR and crossing the Philippines (1948-2005)Philippines (1948-2005)

• Peak month of T.C. activity is from July to OctoberPeak month of T.C. activity is from July to October

• Most number of T.C. crossing the Philippines are during October and Most number of T.C. crossing the Philippines are during October and NovemberNovember

15

10

0.4

13

50.3

79

0.3

10

17

0.5

29

27

1.0

48

43

1.6

117

75

3.3

121

62

3.2

100

72

3.0

64

84

2.6

43

78

2.1

33

46

1.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Nu

mb

er

of

Tro

pic

al

Cyc

lon

es

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Months

Mean

Number of Tropical CyclonesCrossing Philippines

Number of Tropical Cyclones which did not cross the Philippines

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Vulnerability to Extreme Weather EventsEvents

The Ormoc catastrophic The Ormoc catastrophic flash flood flash flood (November 5, (November 5, 1991):1991): More than 5000 people More than 5000 people perished. Unusually heavy, perished. Unusually heavy, continuous rains brought by continuous rains brought by Trop.Storm Uring caused Trop.Storm Uring caused landslides and flashfloods and landslides and flashfloods and dam-break-like effect at the dam-break-like effect at the collapse of Anilao Bridgecollapse of Anilao Bridge

Cherry Hill tragedy Cherry Hill tragedy ((August August 1999):1999): Three consecutive days Three consecutive days of persistent moderate to of persistent moderate to heavy rains caused mud to heavy rains caused mud to cascade into the Cherry Hill cascade into the Cherry Hill leaving 378 houses damaged leaving 378 houses damaged and 58 people killed and 58 people killed

Baguio-La Trinidad Baguio-La Trinidad landslides landslides (July 2001):(July 2001): A A record-breaking 24-hour record-breaking 24-hour rainfall of 1085.8 millimeters rainfall of 1085.8 millimeters was registered at Baguio City was registered at Baguio City causing widespread landslides causing widespread landslides and flashfloods, killing 85 and flashfloods, killing 85 persons in Baguio and La persons in Baguio and La Trinidad area alone. Due to Trinidad area alone. Due to Typhoon FeriaTyphoon Feria

Payatas garbage-slide (July 10, 2000): Continuous moderate to heavy monsoon rains over Metro Manila for several days caused the collapse of the Payatas garbage pile, resulting in 224 deaths and 100 houses destroyed

Camiguin flashfloods Camiguin flashfloods (November (November 7, 2001)7, 2001):: Heavy continuous rains Heavy continuous rains for about 10 hours caused for about 10 hours caused flashfloods carrying landslide flashfloods carrying landslide debris of boulders, uprooted debris of boulders, uprooted trees, loose soil, etc. rushing trees, loose soil, etc. rushing from the mountainside burying from the mountainside burying 134 residents alive and damaging 134 residents alive and damaging vegetationvegetation and structures. and structures.

Southern Leyte-Surigao Southern Leyte-Surigao disaster disaster (December 2003)(December 2003):: SSeveral everal landslides and flash-floods in landslides and flash-floods in Mindanao and Southern Leyte Mindanao and Southern Leyte caused by days of persistent caused by days of persistent rains resulted in 198 deaths in S. rains resulted in 198 deaths in S. Leyte and Mindanao (Agusan- Leyte and Mindanao (Agusan- Surigao) Surigao)

Aurora-Infanta floods Aurora-Infanta floods (November-December 2004):(November-December 2004): HHeavy rains triggered major eavy rains triggered major landslides; cleansed the forests landslides; cleansed the forests of its debris resulting in heavy of its debris resulting in heavy damage and casualty downstream damage and casualty downstream along rivers and coastal areas in along rivers and coastal areas in eastern Luzon (1,068 dead, eastern Luzon (1,068 dead, damage estimate - P7,615.98M)damage estimate - P7,615.98M)

Extreme Weather EventsExtreme Weather Events: Tragedies : Tragedies after tragedies…after tragedies…

Vulnerability to Extreme Vulnerability to Extreme Weather EventsWeather Events

These extreme weather events have one thing in common – persistent These extreme weather events have one thing in common – persistent torrential rains, causing landslides and flash floods, killing people and torrential rains, causing landslides and flash floods, killing people and destroying properties along its path. destroying properties along its path.

GUINSAUGON LANDSLIDEThe whole island of Leyte experienced more than 300% of normal rainfall in February

Plans for these 2 weeks Plans for these 2 weeks workshopworkshop

Evaluation of the six available models Evaluation of the six available models run in CCAM at 60 Km resolutionrun in CCAM at 60 Km resolution

Compute for the projected changes Compute for the projected changes for the Philippines:for the Philippines: 2041 to 2060 – 2050 near future2041 to 2060 – 2050 near future 2081 to 2100 – 2090 end of the 212081 to 2100 – 2090 end of the 21stst

centurycentury ParametersParameters

PrecipitationPrecipitation Maximum, Minimum and Mean TemperatureMaximum, Minimum and Mean Temperature Relative Humidity, Mean Sea Level PressureRelative Humidity, Mean Sea Level Pressure Winds, EvaporationWinds, Evaporation Detection of tropical cyclonesDetection of tropical cyclones

Lastly…Lastly…

To learn how to install and use CCAM To learn how to install and use CCAM To have a trial version of CCAM?To have a trial version of CCAM?

THANK YOU