P ÁZMÁNY U NIVERSITY On the Policy and Politics of Climate Change Session II David Ellison Institute for World Economics (Budapest) Comments Welcome (

PÁZMÁNYPÁZMÁNY UNIVERSITYUNIVERSITY

On the Policy and Politics of Climate ChangeOn the Policy and Politics of Climate Change

Session II Session II

David EllisonDavid Ellison

Institute for World Economics (Budapest)Institute for World Economics (Budapest)

Comments WelcomeComments Welcome ( ([email protected])

Goals for TodayGoals for Today

Questions?Questions?

Discuss papers and other administrative detailsDiscuss papers and other administrative details

Finish Discussion of the ProblemFinish Discussion of the Problem Tipping EffectsTipping Effects ForestsForests

Where do all the GHG’s come from?Where do all the GHG’s come from?

GHG’s: Types, Warming Potentials, LifetimeGHG’s: Types, Warming Potentials, Lifetime

Policy Approaches: CC Mitigation and Policy Approaches: CC Mitigation and AdaptationAdaptation

General Course Outline: Policy and Politics of Climate Change

Climate Change:

The Science and the Findings

Tipping Points: Arctic, Permafrost/Methane, AMC, Forests (among others)

GHG’s: Types, Sources, Global Warming Potential and Atmospheric Life

Policy Approaches: CC Mitigation and Adaptation

Climate Change Mitigation:

International Efforts: o UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and current Negotiations (Copenhagen, Cancun,

Durban)

EU: 2020 Climate Change Package

National Level Efforts: EU Member states, US, China, etc.

Mitigation Policy: Strategy & Instruments:

Policy Approaches

Renewable Energy, RPS, FIT, ETS, Carbon Tax,

Energy Efficiency, Transport, LULUCF

Climate Change Adaptation:

Forests, Water Management, Ecosystems, Species

Floods, Cities

Adaptation Policy: Strategy & Instruments:

Flood and Drought Preparedness

Water and Forests

Food Production

EU level, Member States, Others

Tipping EffectsTipping Effects

Major potential tipping points?Major potential tipping points?

• Arctic Ice Cap?Arctic Ice Cap?• Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 2007Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 2007

• Permafrost and MethanePermafrost and Methane

• AMC (but with opposite impacts)AMC (but with opposite impacts)

• Glacier meltGlacier melt

• ForestsForests

ForestsForests

What are the climate regulation roles of Forests?What are the climate regulation roles of Forests? Carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration Biodiversity protectionBiodiversity protection Temperature regulationTemperature regulation Water…?Water…? Flood moderation/protectionFlood moderation/protection

ForestsForests

Two kinds of Problems Threaten ForestsTwo kinds of Problems Threaten Forests IAS and Outbreak SpeciesIAS and Outbreak Species

Mountain Pine Beetle exampleMountain Pine Beetle example

Forest DiebackForest DiebackWhat is the temperature limit for forests?What is the temperature limit for forests?

IUFRO 2009: IUFRO 2009: “carbon-regulating services of forests could be “carbon-regulating services of forests could be lost entirely under a global warming of 2.5°C or more”lost entirely under a global warming of 2.5°C or more”

Forest defoliation data (ICP)Forest defoliation data (ICP)

Hungarian example: Beech treeHungarian example: Beech tree

Global Change in Forest Cover

Global Drought Potential

Hungarian Example

Organizations You Should Know AboutOrganizations You Should Know About

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeChange Conservative by definition?Conservative by definition?

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeConvention on Climate Change Consensus institutionConsensus institution Voluntary commitmentsVoluntary commitments Kyoto Protocol: Annex I countries (commitments)Kyoto Protocol: Annex I countries (commitments)

Where Do All the GHG’s Come From?

Hungarian End-User Consumption/Emissions

Atmospheric Lifetime and Atmospheric Lifetime and Global Warming PotentialsGlobal Warming Potentials

How Should we Respond?How Should we Respond?

Climate Change Mitigation?Climate Change Mitigation?

Climate Change Adaptation?Climate Change Adaptation?

Some combination of the two…?Some combination of the two…?

Climate Change MitigationClimate Change Mitigation

Stop Using the StuffStop Using the Stuff

Is this possible…?Is this possible…?

How much do we have to stop using…?How much do we have to stop using…?

How does this affect the daily livelihoods of How does this affect the daily livelihoods of people?people?

Can it be done…?Can it be done…?

What are some of the barriers?What are some of the barriers?

Climate Change AdaptationClimate Change Adaptation

Protect Ourselves and our Environment from the Protect Ourselves and our Environment from the Consequences of Climate ChangeConsequences of Climate Change

Is this possible…?Is this possible…?

What do we need to protect against?What do we need to protect against?

How does this affect the daily livelihoods of How does this affect the daily livelihoods of people?people?

Can it be done…?Can it be done…?

What are some of the barriers?What are some of the barriers?

Thank you for listening…!Thank you for listening…!

Questions and Comments welcome:Questions and Comments welcome:

David Ellison ([email protected])David Ellison ([email protected])