OVERWEIGHT Property - Danareksa Onlinedmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/20210105 Property Sector.pdf · 2021. 1. 5. · Equity Research Property See important disclosure at the back

Equity Research Property

See important disclosure at the back of this report www.danareksa.com

Tuesday,05 January 2021

Property OVERWEIGHT

<Maintain> More-needed than ever

After our property sector upgrade on 24 March 2020 the sector has rallied by 132%, outperforming the JCI by 76%. Despite the outperformance, we remain Overweight on the sector with more selective picks now. We believe there is room for growth on the back of: 1) an improving macro environment, 2) a less competitive landscape, and 3) greater necessity for housing. SMRA and CTRA are our BUY recommendation. Positive macro environment. With the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (7DRRR) at its lowest level since its implementation in 2016, Indonesia is entering a low interest expenses regime. This is positive for the property sector as it will encourage the use of mortgages especially for residential development property. Aside from lower mortgage rates, the lower savings rate will also stimulate property as an investment alternative which has been quite muted in recent years. Additionally, we note that since COVID-19 outbreak back on Mar-20 the growth of Broad Money (M2) has been improved which we believe will propel demand for property in the medium term.

Less competitive landscape. During the COVID-19 pandemic we believe developers with higher liquidity will be standing on higher ground given their ability to provide more lenient payment schemes. Although there is still a weak marketing sales trend due to the COVID-19 pandemic, developers under our coverage have recorded more resilient sales growth at negative 15% in 3Q20 compared to the industry’s negative 31%.

Greater necessity for housing. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has not only impacted the global economy but also changed human behavior and lifestyles. In our view, there will be higher demand for houses going forward as people are expecting to make use of their home longer than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend escalated by the shift in the working space towards work from home during the COVID-19 pandemic which, we think, will continue in the future albeit to a lesser degree.

Maintain Overweight with selective picks. Despite its outperformance, we believe the property sector still offers some potential upside as we believe marketing sales trend has bottomed in 2020. We believe developers with high exposure to landed residential property and which have high liquidity will outperform their peers. Based on their respective valuation we recommended BUY on CTRA and SMRA with CTRA as our top pick for the sector due to its stronger balance sheets. We have put BSDE and PWON on HOLD and ASRI on SELL due to its lofty valuation.

ASRI relative to JCI Index

xxxx

BSDE relative to JCI Index

xxxx Source : Bloomberg

x Victor Stefano

(62-21) 5091 4100 ext.

[email protected]

Target Price

Market Cap. P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%)

Company Ticker Rec (Rp) (RpBn) 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2021F

Alam Sutra ASRI IJ SELL 200 5,069.5 n/m 17.0 0.5 0.5 2.8 Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE IJ HOLD 1,200 24,539.5 17.3 9.4 0.8 0.7 8.2 Ciputra Development CTRA IJ BUY 1,400 19,209.9 24.1 22.7 1.2 1.1 5.1 Pakuwon Jati PWON IJ HOLD 530 25,765.4 24.6 16.9 1.6 1.5 9.3 Summarecon Agung SMRA IJ BUY 1,100 12,190.6 82.9 63.9 1.6 1.6 2.5

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Positive macro environment With the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (7DRRR) at its lowest level since its implementation in 2016, Indonesia is entering a low interest expenses regime. This is positive for the property sector as it will encourage the use of mortgages especially for residential development property. Aside from lower mortgage rates, the lower savings rate will also stimulate property as an investment alternative which has been quite muted in recent years. Additionally, we note that since COVID-19 outbreak back on Mar-20 the growth of Broad Money (M2) has been improved which we believe will propel demand for property in the medium term.

Low interest expenses regime

Bank Indonesia (BI) cut the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate by 25 basis points to 375bps in November 2020. This benchmark interest rate is its lowest level since the implementation of the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate in April 2016. The decision to lower the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate was taken considering the low inflation rate and maintained external stability as a further step to accelerate national economic recovery.

BI has cut its benchmark rate aggressively since the middle of 2019. Some 225bps of cuts have been made in around one and a half years. Although a different benchmark rate was used back then, we note that BI historically cut its benchmark rate aggressively at the end of 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Back then 300bps of benchmark rate cuts were made in the span of only 10 months which fueled the so-called property boom later on.

If calculated since early 2020, BI has cut the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate by 125 basis points. We believe this will fully translate into lower mortgage rates in 2021, thus enhancing property sales. At the same time, property will become a more attractive investment due to a lower fixed income rate.

Exhibit 1: 7-day Reverse Repo Rate

Source: BI

0,00%

1,00%

2,00%

3,00%

4,00%

5,00%

6,00%

7,00%

Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

historically low 7DRR rate

225bps in 18months

3

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Attractive investment alternative

The lower benchmark rate will also result in lower time deposit rates, making property a more attractive alternative investment. Our analysis suggests that the difference between the rental yield and 12-month time deposit rate has been hovering at around 2% in the past three years (2018-2020) and will go up in 2021-2022 due to lower deposit rates.

There are similarities to what happened more than a decade ago when the difference between rental yields rose from -1.41% in 2009 to +3.80% in 2010 due to the drop in deposit rates. Along with the strong economic growth, this triggered a property market boom. Alas, we do not foresee strong economic growth in 2021 as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will still linger.

Exhibit 2: Rental Gross rental yield vs time deposits rate (%)

Source: BI, Numbeo, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

More money ready to be used

We expect demand for property will increase in the next few year propelled by the growth in Broad Money (M2). By end of Oct-20, M2 has grown by 12.5% compared to same period last year or slightly higher than the growth in Sep-20 of 12.4%. The growth of M2 is almost double compared to 2018-2019 of 6.3-6.5%. We believe the high liquidity will continue in 2021 which could translate to higher demand for property going forward.

Since the first COVID-19 outbreak in Indonesia on Mar-20, the broad money supply (M2) growth has been escalated from 5.5-8.4% during 2018-2019 to 8.2-13.4%. We believe the growth of M2 will remain high in 2021 amid high economic uncertainty caused by COVID-19 pandemic.

-6,00

-4,00

-2,00

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Gross Rental Yield City Centre 12M Deposit Rate Difference

4


Exhibit 3: Annual growth of Broad Money (M2) in Indonesia

Source: Ministry of Trade, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

Exhibit 4: Monthly y-o-y growth of Broad Money (M2) in Indonesia

Source: Ministry of Trade, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

Additional demand from foreign buyers

According to the Omnibus Law, foreign ownership in Indonesian high-rise residential property will be allowed. However, please note that the right to build can still be built on state land or right to manage land and only foreigners with special permits which are regulated in state law can acquire Indonesian properties. Under the same proposed regulations, the high-rise residential freehold and its extension period can be granted all at once.

14,6%13,7%

15,4%16,4%

15,0%

12,8%11,9%

8,9%

10,1%

8,3%

6,3% 6,5%

12,5%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10M20

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

16,0%

2018 2019 2020

5


Despite bringing a more positive view on the sector, we do not think that it will have a big impact on the demand for properties as it only affects high-rise residential property and no further relaxation can be noticed from the draft. In our view, the restriction of 1-year confiscation if the foreigner leaves Indonesia will remain the setback for foreigners who seek to buy properties in Indonesia.

Additional stimuli are a bonus

The Indonesia Real Estate Association is proposing several stimuli to boost the property industry because it covers 174 related industries and provides jobs to around 30 million people. The proposed stimuli are:

1. Reduce final income tax for rent from 10% to 5% for 12-18 months

2. Reduce final income tax for sales from 2.5% to 1% for 12-18 months

3. Reduce value added tax from 10% to 5% for 12-18 months

4. Payment leniency of above taxes for 9-12 months

If these stimuli were to be given, developers would stand to benefit from higher marketing sales and higher revenues from rental properties. Furthermore, the government is also evaluating the abolishment of the luxury tax for high-end residential property. Despite the niche market, the abolishment of luxury tax could boost the overall sentiment on the property market.

6


Liquidity is king During the COVID-19 pandemic we believe developers with higher liquidity will stand on higher ground given their ability to provide more lenient payment schemes. Although there is still a weak marketing sales trend due to the COVID-19 pandemic, developers under our coverage have recorded more resilient sales growth at negative 15% in 3Q20 compared to the industry’s negative 31%.

Resilient sales from bigger developers

Stronger balance sheets allow developers to book resilient marketing sales. Based on BI data, property sales dropped by 31% y-o-y in 3Q20 or exceeding the 26% drop in 2Q20.

Exhibit 5: Y-o-y growth of marketing sales

Source: BI, Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

-26%-31%

-27% -15%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

2Q20 3Q20

BI (y-o-y) DS

7


Higher liquidity and solvency provide a buffer amid the pandemic

With purchasing power lower due to the COVID-19 pandemic, lenient terms of payment will provide a buffer for marketing sales. Based on the 9M20 financial numbers we note that there has been deterioration in terms of liquidity as measured by the companies’ current ratios compared to the respective positions at the end of Dec-20. PWON had the highest liquidity as of the end of Sep-20 with a current ratio of 276% while BSDE’s liquidity remained strong at 210% despite its biggest fall from the Dec-19 level. Other developers’ current ratios stand at 130-140% which is still good.

Exhibit 6: Current ratios of property developers

Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

When looking at the ability to serve its financial obligations, BSDE, CTRA, and PWON have a strong position with low net gearing ratios. ASRI and SMRA are two developers with high net gearing positions at 75% and 85% as of the end of Sep-20 respectively. Almost all developers experienced higher net gearing as of the end of Sep-20 compared to the end of Dec-19.

Exhibit 7: Net gearing of property developers


264%

322%

175%

286%

124%139%

210%

137%

276%

139%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

ASRI BSDE CTRA PWON SMRA

4Q19 3Q20

63%

11%

28%

2%

77%75%

12%

31%

2%

85%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


4Q19 3Q20

8


Greater necessity for homes The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has not only impacted the global economy but also changed human behavior and lifestyles. In our view, there will be higher demand for houses going forward as people are expecting to make use of their home longer than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend escalated from the shift in the working space towards work from home during the COVID-19 pandemic which, we think, will continue in the future albeit to a lesser degree.

Looking at the right time to buy

We see that the necessity to buy residential property will emerge post the COVID-19 pandemic. The greater intention to buy is captured by the surge in the number of online property searches in 3Q20 which grew by 59-115% compared to 2Q20 and by 143-275% compared to 3Q19. This has not translated into property sales as we believe there are some economic considerations amid uncertainties regarding the COVID-19 pandemic and some customers are only comfortable in using direct channels.

Move away from the city center

Due to the emergence of the work from home trend, the necessity of living near the city center is less significant. This is reflected in 3Q20 when the number of property searches in the Jakarta area was less than those in the Greater Jakarta Area, i.e. Bekasi, Bogor, and Tangerang.

Exhibit 8: Growth in the number of online property searches in 3Q20

Source: Rumah.com

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Bekasi Bogor Tangerang Jakarta

q-o-q y-o-y

9


Exhibit 9: Factor that hinder property buying decision

Source: BI

15,8%

19,9%

21,8%

20,0%

17,9% 17,3%16,1%

4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

PSBB Mortgage Rate

10


Maintain Overweight on the sector Despite its outperformance, we believe the property sector still offers some potential upside as we believe marketing sales trend has bottomed in 2020. We believe developers with high exposure to landed residential property and which have high liquidity will outperform their peers. Based on their respective valuation we recommended BUY on CTRA and SMRA with CTRA as our top pick for the sector due to its stronger balance sheets. We have put BSDE and PWON on HOLD and ASRI on SELL due to its lofty valuation.

Exhibit 10: Property sector marketing sales achievement (IDR bn)


Exhibit 11: Property sector change in recommendation

Stock Old TP Previous

Recommendation RNAV

Discount to RNAV

Valuation New TP New

Recommendation

ASRI 140 SELL

594 66% -0.5 SD 200 SELL

BSDE 950 BUY

2,916 59% Average 1200 HOLD

CTRA 850 HOLD

2,235 38% Average 1400 BUY

PWON 450 HOLD

1,170 55% -0.5 SD 530 HOLD

SMRA 800 HOLD

2,757 62% -0.5 SD 1100 BUY

Source: BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

6%

-11% -9%

-29%

-40%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

-

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000


9M19 9M20 y-o-y

11


Exhibit 12: Property sector heatmap

ASRI BSDE CTRA

PWON

SMRA Sector JCI Sector vs

JCI

YTD 16% 2% 1% -3% -13% 1% -3% 4%

Last 3yr -22% -25% -9% -16% -6% -15% -2% -14%

Last 5yr -18% -26% -22% 19% -44% -18% 35% -53%

2019 -24% 0% 4% -7% 25% 0% 2% -2%

2018 -12% -26% -14% -8% -14% -15% -3% -13%

2017 2% -3% -11% 22% -29% -4% 20% -24%

2016 3% -2% -7% 15% -19% -2% 15% -18%

2015 -38% 1% 19% -3% 10% -2% -12% 10%

2014 32% 41% 70% 93% 98% 67% 22% 45%

2013 -27% 17% -5% 21% -16% -2% -1% -1%

2012 32% 14% 50% 21% 56% 35% 13% 22%

2011 58% 10% 56% -13% 15% 25% 3% 22%

Source: Bloomberg (YTD as of 22 December 2020), BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

Exhibit 13: Property sector discount to RNAV band chart (5-year)

Source: Bloomberg, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

Exhibit 14: Property sector P/BV band chart (5-year)

Source: Bloomberg, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

12


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Equity Research Company Update


Alam Sutra Realty (ASRI IJ) SELL

Maintain Strong share price rally not justified

We expect ASRI to book marketing sales of IDR2.7tn in FY21F, 10% higher compared to the marketing sales of IDR2.4tn in FY20F as we expect demand for residential property to recover in 2020. ASRI has secured marketing sales of IDR1.9tn which is on track to meet its revised FY20F target of IDR2.5tn. We maintain our SELL call on ASRI despite raising our TP to IDR200 based on a 66% discount to RNAV as we believe the share price rally has outrun the fair valuation. Recovery in marketing sales. We expect higher marketing sales of IDR2.7tn in FY21F (vs IDR2.4tn in FY20F) on the back of demand recovery for residential products and flat commercial land plots to CFLD. Sales of office spaces especially the long-awaited office in Jakarta CBD, The Tower, will remain limited in 2021 in our view as we are looking at less office expansion amid high uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. On track to meet its FY20 marketing sales target. In 9M20 ASRI secured marketing sales of IDR1.9tn which is 6% higher than its 9M19 figure of IDR1.8tn. The 9M20 figure is 77% of its FY20 marketing sales target of IDR2.5tn which we believe is on track. We maintain our FY20F marketing sales at IDR2.4tn.

Continuing higher interest expenses. We expect higher interest expenses going forward from the bond refinancing which comes with higher coupon rates. Due to lower credit rating, ASRI has to refinance all of its senior notes with new senior notes with a maximum coupon rate of 13% p.a. The previous US$370mn and US$115mn senior notes have coupon rates of 6.625% and 11.5% respectively.

Maintain SELL despite the higher TP of IDR200 on a lower discount. We raise our TP to IDR200 from IDR140 as we assign a lower discount of 66% (-0.5SD of its five-year average) from 77% (-2SD of its five-year average). Nonetheless, we maintain our SELL call as we believe the share price rally has outrun its fair valuation.

Last price (IDR) 258

Target Price (IDR) 200

Upside/Downside -22.5%

Previous Target Price (IDR) 140

Stock Statistics

Sector Property

Bloomberg Ticker ASRI IJ

No of Shrs (mn) 19,649

Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 5,070/358

Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 37.4/2.6

Major shareholders (%)

Tangerang Fajar Industrial Estate 25.2

Manunggal Prime Development 18.7

Estimated free float 59.9

EPS Consensus (IDR)

2020F 2021F 2022F

Danareksa (0.4) 15.1 (3.0)

Consensus (11.5) 29.3 33.1

Danareksa/Cons (96.1) (48.3) (109.1)

ASRI relative to JCI Index

Source : Bloomberg

x Victor Stefano

(62-21) 5091 4100 ext.

[email protected]

Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Revenue (IDRbn) 3,975 3,476 3,057 3,910 3,360 EBITDA (IDRbn) 2,064 1,795 1,473 1,720 1,360 EBITDA Growth (%) (0.3) (13.1) (17.9) 16.8 (20.9) Net profit (IDRbn) 970 1,012 (9) 297 (59) EPS (IDR) 49.4 51.5 (0.4) 15.1 (3.0) EPS growth (%) (29.7) 4.3 (100.9) (3,474.7) (119.9) BVPS (IDR) 480.6 532.0 531.5 546.7 543.6 DPS (IDR) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PER (x) 5.2 5.0 n/m 17.0 n/m PBV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.0 6.5 8.6 7.0 9.3

Source : ASRI, Danareksa Estimates


Exhibit 1. Revenues and Growth Exhibit 2. Net Profits and Growth

Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates

Exhibit 3. Margins Exhibit 4. Gearing Level


Exhibit 5. ASRI quarterly marketing sales (Rp bn)

Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates


Exhibit 6. ASRI Discount to RNAV Band Chart (5-year) Exhibit 7. ASRI P/BV Band Chart (5-year)

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates


Exhibit 8. Income Statement

Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Revenue 3,975 3,476 3,057 3,910 3,360

COGS (1,531) (1,279) (1,243) (1,808) (1,633)

Gross profit 2,444 2,197 1,814 2,102 1,726

EBITDA 2,064 1,795 1,473 1,720 1,360

Oper. profit 1,978 1,692 1,377 1,621 1,258

Interest income 19 29 37 43 47

Interest expense (442) (595) (767) (936) (963)

Forex Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 0

Income From Assoc. Co’s 0 0 0 0 0

Other Income (Expenses) (83) (76) (99) (102) (105)

Pre-tax profit 1,472 1,050 548 627 237

Income tax (184) (190) (153) (195) (168)

Minority interest 0 (1) 0 (1) 0

Net profit 970 1,012 (9) 297 (59)

Core Net Profit 1,287 859 395 431 69

Exhibit 9. Balance Sheet


Cash & cash equivalent 459 1,209 520 1,382 1,019

Receivables 212 82 168 214 184

Inventory 5,315 5,590 6,272 6,405 6,678

Other Curr. Asset 158 597 597 597 597

Fixed assets - Net 2,372 2,364 2,368 2,369 2,367

Other non-curr.asset 12,170 11,814 11,671 11,646 11,661

Total asset 20,891 21,894 21,834 22,852 22,745

ST Debt 425 247 247 247 247

Payables 226 222 218 317 286

Other Curr. Liabilities 2,224 1,696 1,420 1,818 1,572

Long Term Debt 7,309 7,614 7,842 8,065 8,294

Other LT. Liabilities 1,155 794 794 794 794

Total Liabilities 11,340 10,574 10,522 11,242 11,194

Shareholder'sFunds 9,444 10,453 10,444 10,742 10,682

Minority interests 108 109 109 110 0

Total Equity & Liabilities 20,891 21,136 21,076 22,093 21,876


Exhibit 10. Cash Flow


Net income 970 1,012 (9) 297 (59)

Depreciation and Amort. 86 103 96 99 102

Change in Working Capital (551) (1,117) (1,047) 317 (520)

OtherOper. Cash Flow 0 0 0 0 0

Operating Cash Flow 505 (2) (960) 713 (477)

Capex (762) (84) 42 (74) (115)

Others Inv. Cash Flow (144) (15) 0 1 0

Investing Cash Flow (906) (99) 42 (73) (115)

Net change in debt 105 127 228 222 229

New Capital 0 0 0 0 0

Dividend payment 0 0 0 0 0

Other Fin. Cash Flow 0 0 0 0 0

Financing Cash Flow 105 127 228 222 229

Net Change in Cash (295) 26 (689) 862 (363)

Cash - begin of the year 718 459 1,209 520 1,382

Cash - end of the year 459 1,209 520 1,382 1,019

Exhibit 11. Key Ratios

Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Growth (%)

Sales 1.5 (12.6) (12.0) 27.9 (14.1)

EBITDA (0.3) (13.1) (17.9) 16.8 (20.9)

Operating profit (0.4) (14.5) (18.6) 17.8 (22.4)

Net profit (29.7) 4.3 (100.9) (3,474.7) (119.9)

Profitability (%)

Gross margin 61.5 63.2 59.3 53.8 51.4

EBITDA margin 51.9 51.6 48.2 44.0 40.5

Operating margin 49.8 48.7 45.0 41.5 37.4

Net margin 24.4 29.1 (0.3) 7.6 (1.8)

ROAA 4.7 4.7 0.0 1.3 (0.3)

ROAE 10.8 10.2 (0.1) 2.8 (0.6)

Leverage

Net Gearing (x) 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7

Interest Coverage (x) 4.5 2.8 1.8 1.7 1.3 Source : ASRI, Danareksa Estimates



Tuesday, 05 January 2021

Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) HOLD

Downgrade BSD City remains the spearhead

We expect BSDE to book marketing sales of IDR6.4tn in FY21F, 5% lower compared to its marketing sales of IDR6.8tn in FY20F which reflects the assumption of no marketing sales from JV land plots in FY21F. Excluding that, BSDE is poised to reap 11% higher marketing sales in FY21F. We raise our TP to IDR1,200 from IDR950 as we assign a lower discount of 59% (5-year average) from 67% (-1SD of its 5-year average). We downgrade our call to HOLD as BSDE is fairly valued, in our view. Better marketing sales outlook. We expect BSDE to reap higher marketing sales of IDR6.4tn in FY21F (vs IDR5.8tn in FY20F excluding marketing sales from JV land plots) on the back of higher residential property marketing sales. A lower contribution is expected from strata title as there are limited new projects in the pipeline and there is no significant impact from the office segment which was already muted before the COVID-19 pandemic. BSD City phase 2 will remain the main contributor as there is the flexibility to adjust prices to the market’s needs, the development is strategically located, and it will see future infrastructure development. Expected to miss its FY20 marketing sales target of IDR7.2tn. BSDE has secured marketing sales of IDR4.7tn thanks to the strong marketing sales achievement in 3Q19 of IDR2.53tn. We expect BSDE to surpass its FY19 marketing sales target of IDR6.2tn (flat y-o-y) and meet our new FY19F target of IDR6.4tn supported by multiple launches in its flagship town, BSD City. Several launches to support the 4Q20 marketing sales. We expect BSDE to book marketing sales of IDR2.1tn in 4Q20 coming mainly from the BSD City development and JV land plots. A notable launch in 4Q20 is Tabebuya “Impresahaus” which is located in BSD City phase 2. It was launched in Oct-20 and reaped marketing sales of IDR192bn. Due to its successful launch, Babebuya “Impresahaus R” was launched in Nov-20 with a larger land area option which, we believe, will be able to reap marketing sales of c. IDR200bn. Downgrade to HOLD despite a higher TP of IDR1,200. We downgrade our recommendation on BSDE from BUY to HOLD although we raise our TP to IDR1,200 based on a 59% discount to its RNAV (five year average) from IDR950 previously based on a 67% discount to its RNAV (+1SD of its five year average) as we believe BSDE has already reached its fair valuation.

Last price (IDR) 1,275

Target Price (IDR) 1,200



Stock Statistics

Sector Property

Bloomberg Ticker BSDE IJ


Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 24,540/1,734



Paraga Artamida 26.6

Ekacentra Usahamaju 25.0


EPS Consensus (IDR)

2020F 2021F 2022F

Danareksa 73.6 135.4 115.0

Consensus 43.5 74.8 83.2

Danareksa/Cons 69.2 81.0 38.2

BSDE relative to JCI Index

Source : Bloomberg

x Victor Stefano

(62-21) 5091 4100 ext.

[email protected]


Revenue (IDRbn) 6,629 7,085 6,313 8,579 7,550 EBITDA (IDRbn) 2,822 3,149 2,713 3,974 3,352 EBITDA Growth (%) (51.2) 11.6 (13.8) 46.5 (15.6) Net profit (IDRbn) 1,294 2,791 1,417 2,606 2,214 EPS (IDR) 67.2 145.0 73.6 135.4 115.0 EPS growth (%) (73.7) 115.8 (49.2) 83.9 (15.1) BVPS (IDR) 1,356.6 1,514.5 1,586.3 1,721.6 1,836.7 DPS (IDR) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PER (x) 19.0 8.8 17.3 9.4 11.1 PBV (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.8 9.9 11.5 6.8 7.8

Source : BSDE, Danareksa Estimates






Exhibit 5. BSDE quarterly marketing sales (Rp bn)


-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Exhibit 6. BSDE Discount to RNAV Band Chart (5-year) Exhibit 7. BSDE P/BV Band Chart (5-year)





Revenue 6,629 7,085 6,313 8,579 7,550

COGS (1,874) (2,019) (1,934) (2,517) (2,257)

Gross profit 4,755 5,066 4,379 6,062 5,293

EBITDA 2,822 3,149 2,713 3,974 3,352

Oper. profit 2,438 2,793 2,342 3,570 2,917


Interest expense (913) (1,043) (1,318) (1,290) (1,093)



Other Income (Expenses) (3) 241 95 129 113

Pre-tax profit 1,971 2,616 1,831 3,226 2,765

Income tax (331) (298) (241) (304) (283)

Minority interest (408) (339) (172) (316) (269)

Net profit 1,294 2,791 1,417 2,606 2,214

Core Net Profit 1,232 1,979 1,417 2,606 2,214



Cash & cash equivalent 8,139 6,860 12,221 11,642 12,718

Receivables 293 181 211 287 252

Inventory 9,044 10,177 10,317 10,018 9,940

Other Curr. Asset 2,537 4,121 4,121 4,121 4,121

Fixed assets - Net 8,762 8,883 9,512 10,109 10,673


Total asset 52,101 54,445 60,921 60,937 62,733

ST Debt 817 641 5,350 0 4,536

Payables 1,163 695 873 1,181 1,017


Long Term Debt 13,131 12,766 13,535 13,934 9,667

Other LT. Liabilities 590 599 599 599 599



Minority interests 4,177 4,398 4,570 4,886 5,155





Net income 1,294 2,791 1,417 2,606 2,214


Change in Working Capital (280) (2,990) (725) 2,267 (842)


Operating Cash Flow 1,398 157 1,064 5,277 1,807

Capex (1,793) (633) (1,316) (1,222) (1,269)

Others Inv. Cash Flow (1,479) 1,472 172 316 269

Investing Cash Flow (3,272) 839 (1,144) (906) (1,000)

Net change in debt 4,917 (541) 5,478 (4,951) 269


Dividend payment 0 0 0 0 0

Other Fin. Cash Flow (582) 269 0 0 0

Financing Cash Flow 4,335 (272) 5,478 (4,951) 269

Net Change in Cash 2,461 724 5,398 (580) 1,076

Cash - begin of the year 5,793 8,139 6,860 12,221 11,642

Cash - end of the year 8,139 6,860 12,221 11,642 12,718


Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Growth (%)

Sales (35.9) 6.9 (10.9) 35.9 (12.0)

EBITDA (51.2) 11.6 (13.8) 46.5 (15.6)

Operating profit (55.5) 14.6 (16.2) 52.5 (18.3)

Net profit (73.7) 115.8 (49.2) 83.9 (15.1)

Profitability (%)

Gross margin 71.7 71.5 69.4 70.7 70.1

EBITDA margin 42.6 44.4 43.0 46.3 44.4


Net margin 19.5 39.4 22.4 30.4 29.3

ROAA 2.6 5.2 2.5 4.3 3.6

ROAE 5.0 10.1 4.7 8.2 6.5

Leverage

Net Gearing (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0

Interest Coverage (x) 2.7 2.7 1.8 2.8 2.7 Source : BSDE, Danareksa Estimates



Monday,05 January 2021

Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) BUY

Upgrade On track to recovery

We expect CTRA to book marketing sales of IDR6.8tn in FY21F, 10% higher compared to the marketing sales of IDR6.2tn in FY20F as we expect demand for residential property to grow in 2021. CTRA has secured marketing sales of IDR4.5tn by the end of Oct-20 and it is expected to beat its revised FY20F target of IDR4.5tn thanks to the unexpectedly strong take-up from its CitraLand Gama City Medan. We upgrade our TP to IDR1,400 from IDR850 as we assign a lower discount of 38% (5-year average) from 50% (-1SD of its 5-year average). Better marketing sales outlook. We expect 10% higher marketing sales of IDR6.2tn in FY21F (vs IDR5.6tn in FY20F) on the back of higher marketing sales of landed residential property. We also expect a new launch from its delayed high rise residential project in Ciracas, East Jakarta, and expect marketing sales of IDR180bn. Its flagship projects such as CitraLand Surabaya, Citra Raya Tangerang, Citra Maja Raya, etc. will remain the main contributors in 2021 while we expect a moderation in marketing sales from CitraLand Gama City Medan. Likely to surpass its revised FY20 marketing sales target. CTRA has secured marketing sales of IDR4.5tn at the end of Oct-20, thanks to the strong marketing sales recovery post the COVID-19 outbreak in Mar-20. This achievement is likely to surpass its revised FY20 marketing sales target of IDR4.5tn (the pre COVID-19 target was IDR6.7tn). We expect CTRA to book marketing sales of IDR5.6tn in FY20F.

Revenues recognition in CitraLand City Losari Makassar delayed. The revenues recognition from its flagship reclamation project, CitraLand City Losari Makassar, will be delayed to 2021 from the previous expectation of 2020. We expect half of the marketing sales booked during 2015 – 2017 of c. IDR2tn to be booked in 2021 and the remaining half to be booked in 2022.

Maintain BUY with a higher TP of IDR1,400 on a higher valuation. We upgrade our TP to 1,400 from IDR850 as we assign a lower discount of 38% (5-year average) from 50% (-1SD of its 5-year average) as we believe the weak marketing sales trend has bottomed.

Last price (IDR) 1,035


Upside/Downside +35.3%


Stock Statistics

Sector Property

Bloomberg Ticker CTRA IJ





Founder 30.6

Credit Suisse AG, Singapore 7.9


EPS Consensus (IDR)

2020F 2021F 2022F

Danareksa 42.9 45.5 49.3

Consensus 36.2 51.1 54.2

Danareksa/Cons 18.5 (10.9) (9.1)

CTRA relative to JCI Index

Source : Bloomberg

x Victor Stefano

(62-21) 5091 4100 ext.

[email protected]


Revenue (IDRbn) 7,670 7,608 6,308 7,638 7,755 EBITDA (IDRbn) 2,355 2,442 2,070 2,309 2,386 EBITDA Growth (%) 29.3 3.7 (15.2) 11.6 3.3 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,185 1,158 796 845 914 EPS (IDR) 63.9 62.4 42.9 45.5 49.3 EPS growth (%) 32.6 (2.3) (31.3) 6.2 8.2 BVPS (IDR) 774.4 827.2 870.1 915.6 964.8 DPS (IDR) 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PER (x) 16.2 16.6 24.1 22.7 21.0 PBV (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 Dividend yield (%) 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 9.9 13.0 11.1 10.8

Source : CTRA, Danareksa Estimates






Exhibit 5. CTRA quarterly marketing sales (Rp bn)



Exhibit 6. CTRA Discount to RNAV Band Chart (5-year) Exhibit 7. CTRA P/BV Band Chart (5-year)





Revenue 7,670 7,608 6,308 7,638 7,755

COGS (4,042) (3,816) (3,186) (3,996) (4,015)

Gross profit 3,628 3,792 3,122 3,643 3,740

EBITDA 2,355 2,442 2,070 2,309 2,386

Oper. profit 2,045 2,155 1,765 2,000 2,072


Interest expense (732) (910) (921) (976) (1,041)


Income From Assoc. Co’s (19) (11) 4 4 4

Other Income (Expenses) 104 32 32 32 32

Pre-tax profit 1,650 1,613 1,185 1,303 1,386

Income tax (352) (330) (273) (331) (336)


Net profit 1,185 1,158 796 845 914

Core Net Profit 1,180 1,158 796 845 914




Receivables 1,212 1,173 989 1,197 1,215

Inventory 9,786 10,661 11,912 12,414 12,943

Other Curr. Asset 1,910 2,124 2,336 2,570 2,827

Fixed assets - Net 8,076 8,462 9,033 8,901 8,777


Total asset 34,289 36,196 36,616 38,435 40,619

ST Debt 1,641 1,434 2,937 1,379 1,437

Payables 832 778 672 842 847


Long Term Debt 6,814 7,742 7,091 8,054 9,018

Other LT. Liabilities 261 300 300 300 300








Net income 1,185 1,158 796 845 914


Change in Working Capital (439) (1,018) (2,624) 497 (691)


Operating Cash Flow 1,067 535 (1,296) 1,926 789

Capex (1,173) (719) (1,054) (309) (316)

Others Inv. Cash Flow (215) 1,092 140 62 114

Investing Cash Flow (1,389) 374 (914) (247) (202)

Net change in debt 837 721 852 (594) 1,021

New Capital (38) 0 0 0 0

Dividend payment (176) 0 0 0 0

Other Fin. Cash Flow (767) (904) (921) (976) (1,041)

Financing Cash Flow (145) (183) (69) (1,571) (20)

Net Change in Cash (466) 725 (2,279) 109 567




Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Growth (%)

Sales 19.1 (0.8) (17.1) 21.1 1.5

EBITDA 29.3 3.7 (15.2) 11.6 3.3

Operating profit 31.2 5.4 (18.1) 13.3 3.6

Net profit 32.6 (2.3) (31.3) 6.2 8.2

Profitability (%)

Gross margin 47.3 49.8 49.5 47.7 48.2

EBITDA margin 30.7 32.1 32.8 30.2 30.8


Net margin 15.5 15.2 12.6 11.1 11.8

ROAA 3.6 3.3 2.2 2.3 2.3

ROAE 8.5 7.8 5.1 5.1 5.2

Leverage

Net Gearing (x) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3

Interest Coverage (x) 2.8 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.0 Source : CTRA, Danareksa Estimates




Pakuwon Jati(PWON IJ) HOLD

Maintain Awaiting recovery

We expect PWON to book marketing sales of IDR1.2tn in FY21F, 11% higher compared to its marketing sales of IDR1.1tn in FY20F as we foresee higher demand for residential property amid weak demand in 2021. PWON only secured marketing sales of IDR725bn in 9M20 which is far below its FY20F target of IDR1.7tn owing to weak high rise residential and commercial demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic. We maintain our HOLD call with a higher TP of IDR530. Marketing sales recovery is expected. We expect marketing sales to improve to IDR1.2tn in FY21F (vs IDR1.1tn in FY20F) on the back of higher residential development marketing sales. Albeit expecting a huge improvement from office sales, its contribution will remain low due to the fact that office expansion is unlikely to be seen given high uncertainty regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. Likely to miss its FY20 marketing sales target. PWON has only secured marketing sales of IDR725bn in 9M20 (-29% y-o-y) from its target of IDR1.7tn. New high rise development launches in Bekasi were quite successful in 1Q20. However, there were limited high rise launches during 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect PWON to book marketing sales of IDR367bn in 4Q20 driven by recovery in demand for residential properties.

Slow investment property recovery is expected. As we believe the uncertainties regarding the COVID-19 pandemic will still linger in 2021, the recovery of PWON`s investment property will be gradual. Office and mall expansion are likely to be seen in 2021 while hotel occupancy recovery will be notable, although negative margins may persist.

Maintain HOLD with a higher TP of IDR530. We raise our TP from IDR450 to IDR530 as we assign a lower discount to RNAV of 55% (-0.5SD of its five-year average) from 57% previously (the five-year average). We maintain our HOLD call on PWON as we are still awaiting recovery of its investment property business.


Target Price (IDR) 530



Stock Statistics

Sector Property

Bloomberg Ticker PWON IJ





Pakuwon Arthaniaga 69.7

Alexander Tedja 0.0


EPS Consensus (IDR)

2020F 2021F 2022F

Danareksa 21.7 31.6 37.6

Consensus 23.2 36.9 40.4

Danareksa/Cons (6.3) (14.4) (6.9)

PWON relative to JCI Index

Source : Bloomberg

x Victor Stefano

(62-21) 5091 4100 ext.

[email protected]


Revenue (IDRbn) 7,081 7,202 4,567 5,099 5,503 EBITDA (IDRbn) 3,962 3,952 2,157 2,583 2,912 EBITDA Growth (%) 24.8 (0.2) (45.4) 19.7 12.7 Net profit (IDRbn) 2,543 2,720 1,047 1,524 1,813 EPS (IDR) 52.8 56.5 21.7 31.6 37.6 EPS growth (%) 35.8 6.9 (61.5) 45.6 18.9 BVPS (IDR) 261.5 310.9 326.2 355.4 389.4 DPS (IDR) 6.0 6.0 6.4 2.5 3.6 PER (x) 10.1 9.5 24.6 16.9 14.2 PBV (x) 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 Dividend yield (%) 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 6.6 12.3 10.0 8.5

Source : PWON, Danareksa Estimates






Exhibit 5. PWON quarterly marketing sales (Rp bn)



Exhibit 6. PWON Discount to RNAV Band Chart (5-year) Exhibit 7. PWON P/BV Band Chart (5-year)





Revenue 7,081 7,202 4,567 5,099 5,503

COGS (3,030) (3,144) (2,453) (2,550) (2,615)

Gross profit 4,050 4,058 2,113 2,549 2,888

EBITDA 3,962 3,952 2,157 2,583 2,912

Oper. profit 3,459 3,451 1,679 2,087 2,399



Forex Gain/(Loss) (189) 130 (183) (65) (71)

Income From Assoc. Co’s (8) (15) 0 0 0

Other Income (Expenses) 12 41 (7) 0 0

Pre-tax profit 3,237 3,661 1,436 1,991 2,347

Income tax (410) (421) (289) (338) (381)


Net profit 2,543 2,720 1,047 1,524 1,813

Core Net Profit 2,732 2,589 1,230 1,589 1,883




Receivables 532 934 718 801 865

Inventory 3,576 3,531 3,531 3,531 3,531

Other Curr. Asset 480 439 279 313 339

Fixed assets - Net 1,733 2,076 2,468 2,844 3,206


Total asset 25,018 26,095 25,767 27,573 29,729

ST Debt 647 912 0 0 0

Payables 460 618 482 501 514


Long Term Debt 4,937 3,888 4,280 4,395 4,513

Other LT. Liabilities 2,362 1,181 1,084 1,244 1,416








Net income 2,543 2,720 1,047 1,524 1,813


Change in Working Capital 148 (60) (74) (49) (41)

OtherOper. Cash Flow (1,022) (1,266) (79) 148 105

Operating Cash Flow 2,113 1,865 1,372 2,119 2,390

Capex (905) (811) (809) (807) (807)

Others Inv. Cash Flow (13) (285) (311) (329) (296)

Investing Cash Flow (918) (1,096) (1,121) (1,136) (1,103)

Net change in debt 153 (784) (520) 115 118


Dividend payment (288) (288) (308) (119) (173)

Other Fin. Cash Flow (5) 157 (229) (200) (200)

Financing Cash Flow (141) (915) (1,057) (204) (255)

Net Change in Cash 1,054 (147) (806) 779 1,031




Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Growth (%)

Sales 23.8 1.7 (36.6) 11.6 7.9

EBITDA 24.8 (0.2) (45.4) 19.7 12.7

Operating profit 23.8 (0.2) (51.4) 24.3 14.9

Net profit 35.8 6.9 (61.5) 45.6 18.9

Profitability (%)

Gross margin 57.2 56.3 46.3 50.0 52.5

EBITDA margin 56.0 54.9 47.2 50.7 52.9


Net margin 35.9 37.8 22.9 29.9 32.9

ROAA 10.5 10.6 4.0 5.7 6.3

ROAE 22.2 19.7 6.8 9.3 10.1

Leverage

Net Gearing (x) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Interest Coverage (x) 12.6 15.2 6.3 8.6 9.7 Source : PWON, Danareksa Estimates



Tuesday, 05 January 2021

Summarecon Agung(SMRA IJ) BUY

Upgrade On a positive trajectory

We expect SMRA to book marketing sales of IDR3.5tn in FY21F, 11% higher compared to the marketing sales of IDR3.2n in FY20F as we foresee demand recovery for residential property in 2021. SMRA has secured marketing sales of IDR2.8tn by the end of Nov-20 and already beat its revised FY20F target of IDR2.5tn. We raise our TP to IDR1,100 from IDR800 as we assign a lower discount of 62% (-0.5SD of its 5-year average) from 67% (-1SD of its 5-year average). As such, we upgrade our recommendation to BUY. Higher marketing sales outlook. We expect SMRA to reap higher marketing sales of IDR3.5tn in FY21F (vs IDR3.2tn in FY20F) on the back of higher residential property marketing sales. The contribution from offices is expected to remain muted in 2021 while the contribution from apartments will remain steady amid limited new project launches. The newest township, Summarecon Bogor, will be its growth driver in our view. Already surpassed its revised marketing sales target of IDR2.5tn. SMRA has secured marketing sales of IDR2.8tn thanks to the strong marketing sales in Nov-20 which were mainly contributed by its newly launched township in Bogor, South Jakarta. The 11M20 achievement already beat its revised FY20 marketing sales target of IDR2.5tn (the pre COVID-19 target was IDR4.5tn) but compared to the same period last year it was still down 29%. We expect SMRA to book marketing sales of IDR3.2tn which we tone down from IDR3.5tn previously.

Slow investment property recovery is expected. As we believe the uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic will still linger in 2021, the recovery of SMRA`s investment property especially its retail malls will be gradual. We believe there will be limited retail expansion in 2021 and the possible tightening of Large Scale Social Distancing restrictions - if the government chooses to do so - will greatly affect its mall profitability.

Upgrade to BUY with a higher TP of IDR1,100 on a higher valuation. We upgrade our HOLD recommendation on SMRA to BUY as we raise our TP to IDR1,100 (from IDR800 previously) as we assign a lower Discount to RNAV based on a 62% discount to its RNAV (-0.5SD of its 5-year average) from a 67% discount to its RNAV (-1SD of its five year average).



Upside/Downside +30.2%


Stock Statistics

Sector Property

Bloomberg Ticker SMRA IJ


Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 12,191/861



Semarop Agung 25.4

Sinarmegah Jayasentosa 6.6


EPS Consensus (IDR)

2020F 2021F 2022F

Danareksa 10.2 13.2 17.2

Consensus 8.1 26.7 35.8

Danareksa/Cons 25.3 (50.6) (52.1)

SMRA relative to JCI Index

Source : Bloomberg

x Victor Stefano

(62-21) 5091 4100 ext.

[email protected]


Revenue (IDRbn) 5,661 5,942 5,242 5,208 5,233 EBITDA (IDRbn) 1,842 1,858 1,388 1,404 1,415 EBITDA Growth (%) 10.1 0.8 (25.3) 1.1 0.8 Net profit (IDRbn) 449 515 147 191 248 EPS (IDR) 31.1 35.7 10.2 13.2 17.2 EPS growth (%) 23.9 14.8 (71.4) 29.7 29.9 BVPS (IDR) 478.5 510.7 520.9 534.1 551.3 DPS (IDR) 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PER (x) 27.2 23.7 82.9 63.9 49.2 PBV (x) 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 10.5 14.5 14.5 14.4

Source : SMRA, Danareksa Estimates






Exhibit 5. SMRA quarterly marketing sales (Rp bn)



Exhibit 6. SMRA Discount to RNAV Band Chart (5-year) Exhibit 7. SMRA P/BV Band Chart (5-year)





Revenue 5,661 5,942 5,242 5,208 5,233

COGS (2,922) (3,092) (3,053) (2,992) (2,965)

Gross profit 2,739 2,850 2,189 2,216 2,268

EBITDA 1,842 1,858 1,388 1,404 1,415

Oper. profit 1,540 1,580 1,089 1,084 1,111





Other Income (Expenses) 18 9 9 9 9

Pre-tax profit 950 923 419 477 554

Income tax (260) (310) (244) (250) (259)


Net profit 449 515 147 191 248

Core Net Profit 449 515 147 191 248



Cash & cash equivalent 1,534 1,664 1,006 1,018 (7)

Receivables 394 221 195 194 195

Inventory 7,890 8,514 9,014 9,413 9,733

Other Curr. Asset 690 751 711 709 711

Fixed assets - Net 377 338 321 292 291


Total asset 23,299 24,442 24,109 24,467 23,738

ST Debt 3,714 4,652 3,440 3,140 3,521

Payables 77 86 85 83 83


Long Term Debt 4,893 4,317 5,515 6,014 4,632

Other LT. Liabilities 2,115 1,656 1,496 1,486 1,491








Net income 449 515 147 191 248


Change in Working Capital (1,811) 165 (746) (428) (314)

OtherOper. Cash Flow 528 (256) 604 610 568

Operating Cash Flow (594) 685 305 693 806

Capex (120) (193) (275) (275) (275)

Others Inv. Cash Flow 528 25 83 50 51

Investing Cash Flow 409 (168) (192) (225) (224)

Net change in debt 623 362 (15) 200 (1,001)


Dividend payment (55) (51) 0 0 0

Other Fin. Cash Flow (685) (795) (763) (666) (617)

Financing Cash Flow (117) (484) (777) (466) (1,618)

Net Change in Cash (303) 33 (665) 2 (1,036)


Cash - end of the year 1,534 1,664 1,006 1,018 (7)


Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Growth (%)

Sales 0.4 5.0 (11.8) (0.6) 0.5

EBITDA 10.1 0.8 (25.3) 1.1 0.8

Operating profit 15.1 2.6 (31.1) (0.5) 2.5

Net profit 23.9 14.8 (71.4) 29.7 29.9

Profitability (%)

Gross margin 48.4 48.0 41.8 42.5 43.3

EBITDA margin 32.5 31.3 26.5 27.0 27.0


Net margin 7.9 8.7 2.8 3.7 4.7

ROAA 2.0 2.2 0.6 0.8 1.0

ROAE 6.7 7.2 2.0 2.5 3.2

Leverage

Net Gearing (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Interest Coverage (x) 2.2 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.8 Source : SMRA, Danareksa Estimates

OVERWEIGHT Property - Danareksa Onlinedmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/20210105 Property Sector.pdf · 2021. 1. 5. · Equity Research Property See important disclosure at the back

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