J.B. Collier Operations Officer Africa Natural Resources and Water Management Group Annual International UN Water Conference Zaragoza, Spain January 8-10, 2013 1 Lessons Learned from Water Cooperation in Transboundary Basins: A World Bank Perspective
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Overview presentation on transboundary cooperation. Lessons learned from water cooperation in transboundary basins
Overview presentation on transboundary cooperation. Lessons learned from water cooperation in transboundary basins. J. B. Collier, Operations Officer, Africa Natural Resources and Water Management Group, World Bank. Furthering water cooperation among nations and stakeholders. Making it happen!. International Annual UN-Water Zaragoza Conference 2012/2013. Preparing for the 2013 International Year. Water Cooperation: Making it Happen! 8-10 January 2013
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J.B. CollierOperations Officer
Africa Natural Resources and Water Management Group
Annual International UN Water ConferenceZaragoza, Spain
January 8-10, 2013
Lessons Learned from Water Cooperation in Transboundary Basins:
A World Bank Perspective
2
Countries have ambitious development goals
Ambitious goals to achieve growth, poverty alleviation, sustainable development.
Food, energy, water, security and climate resilience plans.
“Laos wants to pull itself out of least-developed country status by 2020”
“By maintaining at least an 11 percent annual average economic growth and by addressing emerging development bottlenecks, meet the MDG target.” (Ethiopia)
3
Cooperation can help meet those goals
Economies of scale
Access to markets
Postpone investments
Jointly face a common threat
Optimize regionally rather than nationally
Balance each other’s needs
4
The Puzzle: If cooperation brings so many benefits, why isn’t there
more of it ?
276 River Basins in the world.
> 60% of have no treaty provisions covering them.
Few River basin agreements.
Mostly bilateral.
Security
Economic Development
Needs
Rights
INTERNAL DRIVERS
EXTERNAL DRIVERS
Global Dialogue
Regional Geopolitics
Climate Risks
COUNTRY CONSIDERATION
SBenefits and Costs (Economic)
Perceived Risks (Political)
(and few Opportunities)
(Political)
What’s holding the countries back? Perceived Risks
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30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 1000 10000 100000
Lif
e
Exp
ecta
ncy
(ye
ars)
GNI per capita (US$/yr)
There is a need to catch up quickly in a global context …
2009 Data from The World Bank
6
Many Development Challenges…
Gross Cell Productin 2005
(1995 US$, billions)
Source: The World Bank AFR Water Resources in a Changing Climate, 2010 based on data from GECON GDP Dataset, Yale University 2010
Areas that contribute to Africa’s GDPGrowing Cities
Population in 2000
2010
2025
Kinshasa
Cairo
LagosKhartoum
Dar-es-Salaam
Cape Town
Dakar8.7 million
15 million
5.6 million
Data Source: UN Agglomerations Population Data
Growing Population
Growing Cities
Growing Economies
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Information
New Visualizations building on better Global Datasets
Innovative Hardware(e.g. Tablets)
Interactive Documents
Online Portals 8
Precipitation (rain & snow)
Reservoir Levels
Flow, Sediment, Floods, GW, …
Shared Regional Real-time Hydromet Systems
“Bottom-up” Systems
Data Transmission(e.g. Satellite, Fixed-line/ Cellphone, Radio Telemetry)
Data Management (Visualization, Forecasts, Storage, Archival,
Dissemination & Use)
Internet/
Intranet
“Top-down” Systems
ET, Soil Moisture, Biomass…
9
Examples of Bank Work on International
Waters
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Ganges Strategic Basin AssessmentComplex System Scenario Analysis
Afghanistan - Strategic Options Scoping in the Kabul River Basin
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Liv
e S
tora
ge
(MC
M)
Kaj
ab
Tan
gi
War
dag
Gat
Hai
jan
To
tum
dar
a
Bar
ak
Pan
jsh
ir
Bag
hd
ara
Lan
gh
man
Ko
nar
A
To
tal
Sto
rag
eD
evel
op
ed
Figure 6-6 Base Case Storage Options under Different Hydrologic Risk Options
Mean Annual Flow
Moderate Drought (1 in 5 yrs)
More Serious Drought (1 in 10 yrs)
Severe Drought Year
Prioritizing Investments in Kabul
River Basin 12
Uganda
Kenya
Ethiopia
Eritrea
Sudan
Egypt
DR Congo
Rwanda
BurundiTanzania
South Sudan
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)
Eastern Nile
Nile Basin
220 /460MW
C2C3C1
1780 MW R4R7R5
1700 ME 1600 MW R6R7R8R9C10C10C12C12C12C13R13R14R15
Eastern Nile Basin System Schematic
R9Sennar
R12
Kha
shm
-el
-Gir
ba
R15 Aswan
R4
Kar
ado
bi
R8Roseires
R10Jabel Auliya
C10
C13 C12
R5
Ma
bil
R6
Me
nd
aia
R7
Bor
der
R3Lake Tana
S10
Wh
ite
Nil
e
Blue Nile (Abbay)
Baro
Up
per A
tbara
SetitAtbara
C1 C6
C5
C2
C16D21: New Valley
D22 D23
E1
E2
Mediterranean Sea
Sobat
Pib
or
S6
R2
Bar
o
Baro Birbir
C4
S2
Akobo
Gilo
S11
C9
Beles
R1Baro
S5
R11Rumela
S14
D14: Om Hagar
D13: Humera
C11 S15
D15: U. AtbaraD16: New Haifa
D11: Gezira
D10: Dinder
D9
D8
D7D6
D4
D12
D2
D1
R13 Merowe
R14 Dal
D17
D18
D19
D20
C7
C8 S9Doleib/Adar
C14 S16El Hawad
S12Dinder
S13Rahad
C3
S7Alw
ero
C15
S3
S4
D3
D5
Riv
er N
ile
Bar
o
R16L. Victoria
S1
D24
R17L. Kayoga
R18L. Albert
S17
D25
D26
C18
D27
C17
S8
Return to Interface
Strengthening regional institutions,
analysis, and investments
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Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project
Demonstration of Value of Regional Cooperation for flood forecasting and warning improvement in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt.
Soils
Canals
Wetlands
•••
•••
Rivers
14
Amu Darya Basin
Amu Darya Basin
Upper Amu Darya Basin
UzbekistanIrrigated Areas
Facilitating riparian cooperation dialogue and investments in the Aral Sea Basin.
15
16
By:Ashok SubramanianBridget BrownAaron Wolf
REACHING ACROSS THE WATERSFacing the Risks of Cooperation in International Waters
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Introduction: What, How
Framework for Analysis
Case Studies
Understanding Risks
Understanding Risk Reduction
Pointers for Partners
Reflections
Reaching Across the Waters: Outline
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Cooperation – Dialogue or action re: shared waters between countries.
International Waters – River shared by countries (may be border; may cross borders.
Benefits – Economic benefits. Risks – Perceived, may not be real. Risk Reduction – Actionable measures to
reduce perceived risks. Opportunity – Political; usually unpredictable.
Definitions
Framework for AnalysisBenefits, Risks, and Opportunities
Political Opportunity
Political Risk
EconomicBenefit
Economic Cost
Countries may pursue Unilateral development given
high risks and high costs
Countries most likelyto make a deal
Countries likely to consider a deal; risk reduction and
opportunity enhancementwould improve likelihood
Countries likely to consider a deal; benefit expansion would improve likelihood
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E. Nile Basin, 1998-2004: Working together on the E. Nile Program, after historic conflicts
Ganges Basin, 1996-2000: Bilateral treaty between India-Bangladesh, after long negotiations
Niger Basin, 2000-2006: Revitalization of the Niger Basin Authority, after 4 decades of fragile existence
Syr Darya Basin, 1996-2000: F’wk agreement between 3 countries on energy, but did not sustain
Zambezi Basin, 2000-04: ZAMCOM is not signed by all, despite enormous efforts
The Cooperation Experience: River Basins
Ganges River Basin, 1996-2000
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Eastern Nile Basin, 1998-2004
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Niger River Basin, 2000-2006
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Syr Darya, 1996-2002
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Zambezi River Basin, 2000-2004
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26
R I S K R E D U C T I O N
O P P O R T U N I T Y E N H A N C E M E N T
Political Opportunity
Political Risk
EconomicBenefit
Economic Cost
UNDERSTANDING RISKS
Risks: See next slide
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Capacity and Knowledge - country’s confidence in itself to negotiate an agreement, and also having enough knowledge (for example, of the basin) to do so.
Accountability and Voice - country’s distrust in co-riparians, agencies or third parties as well as its desire to be heard and included in the cooperation process.
Sovereignty and Autonomy - country’s desire to have control over resources and infrastructure, and also to make decisions independently.
Equity and Access - country’s concern for fairness in the agreement, whether it is in specified flows or project costs, as well as its sense of entitlement to develop/use its fair share of the river.
Stability and Support - country’s concern that an agreement will not be honored by its own citizens or be widely supported politically.
Risks: 5 Types
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CORE RISKS◦ Deep. Recur. Need Periodic Attention.
OPERATIONAL RISKS◦ Many interventions may be needed.
Core & Operational Risks
SOVEREIGNTY AUTONOMY
EQUITY ACCESS
CAPACITYKNOWLEDGE
ACCOUNTABILITY & VOICE
STABILITY & SUPPORT
Weak knowledge
Lack of Rules of
Engagement or
for decision making
Few forums for
debate and interaction
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R I S K R E D U C T I O N
O P P O R T U N I T Y E N H A N C E M E N T
Political Opportunity
Political Risk
EconomicBenefit
Economic Cost
UNDERSTANDING RISK REDUCTION
Risk Reduction – See next Slide
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Knowledge & Skills
Institutions
Agreement
Program
Legitimacy
Financing
Facilitation
SEVEN RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIESFa
cts
vs.
per
cept
ions
Dec
isio
n
mak
ing
Form
al?
Flexib
le?
TA?
Inve
sts?
Sequence of benefits
Forums for
debate
Supportin
g dialogue
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CAPACITYKNOWLEDGE
ACCOUNTABILITY VOICE
SOVEREIGNTY AUTONOMY
EQUITY ACCESS
STABILITY SUPPORT
Knowledge & Skills
Institutions
Agreement
Program
Legitimacy
Financing
Facilitation or Guarantee
LINKINGRISKS&RISK REDUCTIONSTRATEGIES
No One Size Fits All Solutions
Conduct Quick
Assessment
Conduct Detailed
Assessment
Select Risk Reduction Measures
Expert Validation
Coordinate Support
Further Risk Reduction
Development Goals &
Consideration of Cooperation
Agreement(Risks & Opportunities)
No Agreement(Risks &
Opportunities)
Select Scale of
Engagement
PART
NERS
COUNTRIE
S
Engage in Risk
Reduction
ConductReassessment
Ongoing – Consideration of Benefits, Opportunities,
Risks and Internal Dialogue
Risk Identification and Action
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Many Risk Reduction Strategies needed - Pooled approach
◦ Harmonization and Alignment.◦ Comparative strengths (GEF, UN, IFI, Bilaterals)◦ Financing and TA
Monitoring progress/outputs critical
Communication about intermediate steps
Incentives for Teams
Pointers for Partners
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In it for the long haul…A long distance run..not a sprint
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Core & Operational Risks
Mix of risk reduction strategies needed.
Appropriate rather than ideal solutions.
Different paths to cooperation, so different strokes for different risks/contexts.
Political Opportunity may override some risks.
Political Opportunity is unpredictable, depends on “beyond the water” issues (e.g., change of regime).
Political Opportunity opens doors – but Risk Reduction still important.
Reflections
Political Opportunity
Political Risk
EconomicBenefit
Economic Cost
Different Paths to Cooperation “Solutions for Situations”
36
37
The Nature of the Deal
Deal reached – but often fragile?
◦ Short term equilibrium, 2-3 years. But could move back. No once-for-all magic bullet.
◦ Deal may be in form, but substance needs work.
◦ Chance to initiate and institutionalize long term cooperative mechanisms?
◦ Big uncertainties in geopolitics, hydrology => Need for flexibility in deal. Implications for water (quantity) sharing?
Political Opportunity
Political Risk
EconomicBenefit
Economic Cost
Reflections/LessonsThe Last word
Systematic analysis and application helps.
Seize moments of political opportunity.Doable rather than desirable solutions.
Deals are temporary. Periodic assessment and action needed.
Solutions for situations.Train for the long haul
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Lessons from work on International Waters
Information Need to capitalize on new information products (incl. earth observation) Move from limited data sharing to improving access to data, tools, and
knowledge products in the public domain (e.g. for disaster management, basin planning)
Institutions Strengthen regional institutions with strong links to national-level activities Strengthen links with academia and other knowledge institutions (e.g. through
internships) Improve shared vision planning and financing (riparian governments,
development partners)
Investments Improve frameworks to identify investments with development impacts at
regional scale Facilitate quality preparation, appraisal, and implementation of these
investments
+ Need to remain engaged in the long-term and look for emerging opportunities even in difficult situations of regional cooperation… 39