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Overview of the EU 2016 submissions under UNFCCC

Giacomo Grassi, Raul Abad Vinas, Tibor Priwitzer, Simone RossiSandro Federici

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, 

Forest resources and Climate UnitIspra (Italy)

JRC LULUCF workshop, Stresa 2‐3 May 2016

OUTLINE

Status of reporting

Overview of reporting under UNFCCC

Next steps

STATUS OF REPORTING (as of 29 April 2016)

MS NIR CRF_Convention CRF_KP Information

_Dec_529CRF tables_ Dec_529 Observations

Austria x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/ KP tables not public available/Dec_529 data sub. in January using xls. files from JRC

Belgium x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/ NO KP tables Bulgaria x x x NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/ NO KP tablesCroatia x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tables emptyCyprus x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables with most of cells empty/ KP tables with most of cells emptyCzech Republic x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/NO KP tables/BY table for 529 KP missing Denmark x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/ NO KP tables Estonia x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/NO KP tables/2013 table for 529 KP missing Finland x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tablesFrance x x NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/ NO KP tables/NO 529 dataGermany x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables /KP tables/Information and data for 529 Dec. included in the NIR and KP

CRF tablesGreece x x x x NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tables/ NO 529 data Hungary x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tablesIreland x  NO NIR 15 April Sub./ NO Convention tables/ NO KP tables/data for 529 Dec. in CRF KP tablesItaly x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tables with some cells empty/data for 529 Dec. in CRF KP tablesLatvia x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/NO KP tablesLithuania x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tables with some cells emptyLuxembourg x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tables Malta x x x NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables with few cells empty/NO KP tables Netherlands x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/ KP tables with a lot of tables empty Poland x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tables with some cells empty Portugal x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tables with some cells empty/data for 529 Dec. in CRF KP tablesRomania x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tables with some cells emptySlovakia x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tables with some cells emptySlovenia x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/NO KP tablesSpain x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/NO KP tablesSweden x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/NO KP tablesUK x x x x x  NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tables with some cells empty/data for 529 Dec. in CRF KP tablesTotal EU 27 27 16 24 24Iceland x x x NIR 15 April Sub./Convention tables/KP tables with some cells empty/NO 529 data

4

Emission (+) and removals (‐) trends: EU28 + ISL

OverviewUNFCCC reporting

Area trends: EU28 + ISL

‐60

‐50

‐40

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

Austria

Be

lgium

Bu

lgaria

Croa

a Cy

prus

Cz

ech Re

public

De

nmark

Estonia

Finlan

d Fran

ce

German

y Greec

e Hu

ngary

Ireland

Ita

ly

Latvia

Lithua

nia

Luxe

mbo

urg

Malta

Nethe

rland

s Po

land

Po

rtug

al

Roman

ia

Slov

akia

Slov

enia

Sp

ain

Swed

en

United King

dom

Icelan

d

Mt C

O2 e /yr

Emissions/removals from LULUCF in EU MS (year 2014)

% contribution of LULUCF to total GHG emissions (without LULUCF)

In EU28, LULUCF offsets 7% of total GHGs (Forest offsets 10%)

-7 -3 -20 -24 -8 -6 3 -3 -35 -11 -2 -3 -8 9 -6 37 -43 -4 0 3 -7 -16 -17 -15 -42 -10 -72 -2 258

Land use changes represent 9% of EU area but account for > 20% of absolute emissions/removals of respective subcategoriesThe sink from conversions to FL (‐54 MtCO2yr) and GL (‐26 MtCO2/yr) compensated by emissions from conversions to CL (45 MtCO2/yr) and SL (47 MtCO2/yr). 

Area of organic soils (19 Mha: 13 in FL, 2 in CL, 4 in GL) represents about 5% of the total area of FL + CL + GL in the EU, but their emissions (97 MtCO2/y: 20 in FL, 31 in CL  and 46 in GL) account for 30% of net total LULUCF removals.

Biomass burning: about 6‐7 MtCO2/yr (3‐30, depending on the year) 

The LULUCF “hotspots”

Overview

Trends of emissions/removals  (EU28)

Forest land

‐80 ‐70 ‐60 ‐50 ‐40 ‐30 ‐20 ‐10 0

10

Austria

Belgium

Bulgaria

Croa

a Cyprus

Czech Repub

Denm

ark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingd

Mt CO2e/y

L‐FL

FL‐FL

MS emissions/removals (EU28 2014)

‐450 ‐400 ‐350 ‐300 ‐250 ‐200 ‐150 ‐100 ‐50 0

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Mt C

O2e

/y

FL‐FL

L‐FL

MS trends of emissions/removals in FL‐FL

Absolute levels and long‐term trend affected by harvest, increments, age structure. Levels partially affected also by methods/definitionsInterannual variability affected by natural disturbances (fires, storms) and harvestShort‐term trend also affected by the method (i.e. stock‐change vs. gain‐loss)

Trends of emissions/removals  (EU28)

Cropland

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Austria

Be

lgium

Bu

lgaria

Croa

a Cy

prus

Czech Re

pub

Denm

ark

Estonia

Finlan

d Fran

ce

German

y Greece

Hun

gary

Ire

land

Ita

ly

Latvia

Lithua

nia

Luxembo

urg

Malta

Nethe

rland

s Po

land

Po

rtug

al

Roman

ia

Slov

akia

Slov

enia

Sp

ain

Swed

en

United King

d

Mt C

O2e

/y

L‐CL

CL‐CL

MS emissions/removals (EU28 2014)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Mt C

O2e

/y CL‐CL

L‐CL

Grassland 

Trends of emissions/removals  (EU28)

‐15 ‐10 ‐5 0 5

10 15 20 25

Austria

Be

lgium

Bu

lgaria

Croa

a Cy

prus

Czech Re

pub

Denm

ark

Estonia

Finlan

d Fran

ce

German

y Greece

Hung

ary

Ireland

Ita

ly

Latvia

Lithua

nia

Luxembo

urg

Malta

Nethe

rland

s Po

land

Po

rtug

al

Roman

ia

Slov

akia

Slov

enia

Sp

ain

Swed

en

United King

d

Mt C

O2e

/y

L‐GL

GL‐GL

MS emissions/removals (EU28 2014)

‐40 ‐30 ‐20 ‐10 0

10 20 30 40 50

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Mt C

O2e

/y GL‐GL

L‐GL

Completeness of reporting of land uses (UNFCCC)

Completeness: FL > CL > GL > WLCompleteness of land use conversions > land use remaining the same

= estimate not mandatory under tier 1

Are LULUCF estimates complete?

Land Use SubcategoryCarbon pool

Living biomass  Dead organic matter SOC mineral

Forest Land FL‐FL 100% 52% 31%L‐FL 93% 66% 79%

CroplandCL‐CL 83% 10% 69%L‐CL 83% 66% 90%

GrasslandGL‐GL 38% 17% 41%L‐GL 90% 69% 90%

WetlandsWL‐WL 17% 3% 38%L‐WL 83% 62% 86%

Improvement in completenessCoverage of reporting of lands by C pool, from 2009 GHGI to 2016 GHGI

Num

ber o

f MS repo

rting

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Biom DOM Soil min Soil org

Cropland remaining Cropland

Year 2007

Year 2014

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Biom DOM Soil min Soil org

Land converted to Cropland

Year 2007

Year 2014

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Biom DOM Soil min Soil org

Grassland remaining Grassland

Year 2007

Year 2014

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Biom DOM Soil min Soil org

Land converted to Grassland

Year 2007

Year 2014

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Biom DOM Soil min Soil org

Forest land remaining Forest land

Year 2007

Year 2014

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Biom DOM Soil min Soil org

Land converted Forest land

Year 2007

Year 2014

Are LULUCF estimates accurate?

‐450

‐400

‐350

‐300

‐250

‐200

‐150

‐100

‐50

0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Mt C

O2 eq

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

Recalculations ‐ total LULUCF

Verification of GHG estimatesIPCC: verification of national GHG inventories useful to improve scientific understanding and build confidence on estimates and trends, e.g. ‐ Comparison with partially independent information (scientific studies, international datasets, forest Carbon Budget Model applied by JRC, etc.)‐ Applying different methods (Lower tiers, higher tiers, direct measurement of GHG emissions and removals, etc.)Comparing different data/methods does not mean expecting full match. However, in principle trends could be expected to be the same.

Uncertainties at MS levelForest land: 10‐70% for biomass (EU28 average ≈ 35%), 20‐100% for dead organic matter (≈60%), 15‐70% for mineral soils (≈60%) and 35‐150% for organic soils (≈90%). FM: ≈35%, Forest conversions (AR/D) ≈ 50‐60%Cropland & Grassland: high uncertainties (50‐100%), especially for mineral/organic soilsLargest uncertainties shown in land conversions.

16

WAY FORWARD FOR 2016 SUBMISSIONS (outcomes of WG‐I meeting 17th March 2016) 

• 3rd May: release of the software – to be tested if it can allow the submissions under KP by 15th June

• 16th May: Cut‐off day for submission to the EU

• 15th June: inventory submissions under KP (assumes in principle that the CRF is functional)

• Initial reports to be submitted by 15th June, together with KP submission

Decision 2/CMP.8

• Each Party with a GHG target in CP2 shall submit [by 15 April 2015], a report to facilitate the calculation of its assigned amount and to demonstrate its capacity to account for its emissions. 

• This report shall include the following LULUCF‐related information:• Forest definition and threshold parameters, in accordance with 16/CMP.1 and 2/CMP.7. If the Party selected its forest definition for CP1, the definition for CP2 shall be the same. 

• The identification of its election of activities under Article 3.4 of the KP, together with information on how its national system will identify the associated land areas 

• Whether it intends to account annually or for the entire commitment period; • The FMRL inscribed in decision 2/CMP.7 and technical corrections for the 1st year of CP2*• Information on how emissions from HWP originating from forests prior to the start of the CP2 have been calculated in the FMRL in accordance with decision 2/CMP6;

• Whether it intends to exclude emissions from Natural Disturbances, including information on background level and the margin (if any); 

• Parties shall include the FMRL submission and the corresponding technical assessment report as annexes to the report. Any technical corrections resulting from recommendations in the technical assessment report shall be reported in the inventory submission for the first year of the CP2. 

INITIAL REPORTS 

Decision 2/CMP.8 (continued)

• Additionally, the report shall include the following information for Art. 3.3 (ARD), FM, elected Art. 3.4 activities (CM, GM, RV, WDR):1) Estimates of anthropogenic GHG emissions / removals2) General information including:‐ Information already included in past NIR under KP, i.e. information showing how estimates 

follow relevant IPCC guidelines; Information showing that lands are identifiable and traceable; The spatial assessment unit used for ARD; Demonstration that the unaccounted C pools were not a net source of emissions; Factoring out removals from elevated CO2, indirect N deposition, effects of age structure;  Information on how harvesting or forest disturbance that is followed by the re‐establishment of a forest is distinguished from deforestation; Information showing that ARD activities and are directly human‐induced.

‐ NEW information: Emissions from the conversion of natural forests to planted forests; Information showing methodological consistency between the FMRL and reporting for FM + any technical corrections to FMRL; Information on how emissions and removals in Harvested Wood Products (HWP) are accounted in accordance with decision 2/CMP.7; When a Party applies the provisions for Natural Disturbances (ND), information demonstrating accordance with decision 2/CMP.7;

Thank you !