Overview of the Energy Technology Perspectives Model

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Overview of the Energy Technology Perspectives Model

Johannesburg, 30 March 2012

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Complexity of energy system

Technology level Long-term nature of planning decisions (e.g. lifetime of

power plants)

Future development of technologies

System level Infrastructure for energy (e.g. T&D for electricity)

Interdependencies between technologies and sectors (e.g. EVs with power sector)

Integration of variable renewables

Stakeholder level Wide range of actors involved from households, industry

to government

Policy level How to achieve policy goals

Effectiveness and impacts of individual policy measures

Energy system does not allow for real-world experiments

Scenarios: Exploring the future

Models: Developing consistent scenarios

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Classification: Bottom-up and top-down models

Optimisation

Simulation

Top-down

Bottom-up

E3MG

Econometric models

POLES

MARKAL/TIMES

MESSAGE

PRIMES

Technology-rich least-cost models

OSeMOSYS

IMACLIM-R

CGE models

OECD ENV-Linkages

LEAP

Technology-rich simulation models

MoMo

(Source: van Ruijven and van Vuuren, 2009)

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Energy system model

Constraints

Energy security

Existing policy Behaviour

Resources

Statistics

Expert knowledge

Reports

Calibration of energy & emissions

Government Statistics

International statistics

Scenarios

Reference

Policy

Technology database

Experts

Literature review

Stakeholder workshop

Other energy system models

Demand projections

Outputs from macro and demand models

Assumptions

Source: William Usher, 2010

Data requirements

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Energy modelling at IEA

Next 5 years: Medium-term oil, gas and coal markets models

Next 25 years:

World Energy Model

Next 40 years:

Energy Technology

Perspectives model

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions

A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt C

O2

CCS 19%

Renewables 17%

Nuclear 6%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%

End-use fuel switching 15%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt C

O2

CCS 19%

Renewables 17%

Nuclear 6%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%

End-use fuel switching 15%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

ETP Modeling Framework

Primary

energy

Conversion

sectors Final energy End-use

sectors

End-use service

demands

Electricity

production

Fossil

Renewables

Nuclear

Refineries

Synfuel

plants

CHP and

heat plants

etc.

Electricity

Gasoline

Diesel

Natural

gas

Heat

etc.

Industry

Buildings

Transport

Material

demands

Heating

Cooling

Passenger

travel

Freight

etc.

ETP-TIMES model

MoMo model

Energy costs

Energy demand

ETP-TIMES model for supply side supplemented with spreadsheet-based end-use sector models

Model horizon: 2009-2050 (2075) in 5 year periods

28-36 world regions/countries depending on sector

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Power sector model in ETP-TIMES

Wind turbine, onshore

Wind turbine, offshore

Hydro, run-of-river

Gas turbine

NGCC

Coal plant, supercritical

Coal plant, subcriticalCoal supply

Gas supply

Wind potential, onshore

Wind potential, offshore

Hydro potential, run-of-river

Transmission and distribution

…

Industry demand

Transport demand

Residential demand

Commercial demand

Fuel supply Generation T&D Demand

Technical and economic characteristics

Potentials

Electricity

demands

Load

curves

Generation mix

New capacities

Fuel costs

Fuel

demand

Electricity prices

Average generation costsEmissions

Least-cost optimisation:Minimising total costs of power

system over analysis horizon

Approach: Optimisation

Foresight: Perfect foresight or myopic versions

Time horizon: Long-term (investment planning)

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Decarbonising the power sector – a new age of electrification?

A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050

BLUE High Nuclear 2050

BLUE High Ren 2050

PW

hOther

Solar

Wind

Biomass+CCS

Biomass and waste

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas+CCS

Natural gas

Oil

Coal+CCS

Coal

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Average annual electricity capacity additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario

Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon technologies must be massively increased from today’s levels.

0 10 20 30 40 50

Solar CSP

Solar PV

Geothermal

Wind-offshore

Wind-onshore

Biomass plants

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas-fired with CCS

Coal-fired with CCS

GW/ yr

Present rate Gap to reach BLUE Map

30 plants (1 000 MW)

200 plants (50 MW)

12 000 turbines (4 MW)

3 600 turbines (4 MW)

45 units (100 MW)

55 CSP plants (250 MW)

325 million m2 solar panels

2/3 of Three Gorges Dam

35 plants (500 MW)

20 plants (500 MW)

Historical high

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ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Transport model MoMo (Modeling Mobility): Architecture

Activity Structure Intensity emission Factor

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Passenger light-duty vehicles sales by technology BLUE Map scenarios

The BLUE Map scenario envisions rapid successive introduction of new generations of advanced vehicles in all major economies.

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

PV Roadmap

PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11%

in 2050

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Technology Roadmaps Status

2009 2010 2011 2012

Fossil Fuels

Carbon capture &

storage

High efficiency low

emissions coal

Renewables

Wind - Solar PV

- Concentrating solar

power

- Biofuels

- Geothermal heat &

power

- Hydropower

- Biomass for heat &

power

-Solar heat and cooling

End-Use

Buildings

Efficient buildings:

Heating and cooling

Systems

-Lighting

-Efficient buildings:

Building shells and

design

Industry

Cement sector CCS in industry Chemical sector:

Catalysis

Transport

Electric vehicles Vehicle Fuel Economy

Other

Nuclear Smart Grids

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Summary

Energy models provide a consistent analysis framework Energy models are simplified representation of the real-world

system

Level of detail depends on questions to be addressed and available data

Choice of model type depending on analysis question Energy system models: focus on role of technologies and

interactions within the energy sector

Economic models: focus on interdependencies of the energy sector with the remaining economy

Limitations of individual model approaches important when interpreting model results

Technology roadmaps to bridge the gap between today’s situation of a technology and its future vision from scenario analysis