Overview of the Climate Prediction Center and Coordination with CICS

Overview of the Climate Prediction Center and Coordination with CICS

Dr. Wayne Higgins, DirectorClimate Prediction Center / NCEP

CICS Science Meeting

September 2010

• CPC within NCEP

• Ongoing CPC Activities

• CPC and CICS

– How is CPC involved with CICS?

– Current Examples of Collaborative Science

– Enhancing the Role of CICS at CPC

• Forces for Change

Outline

CPC within NCEP

The CPC Mission

• National temperature and precipitation outlooks

• Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. short term climate)

• Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices and labs

• Established Concept of Operations• Real-time Climate Services (e.g. Gulf Oil Spill)• Integral to NOAA Seamless Suite of Products

We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment

products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property

and the enhancement of the economy.

Temperature Outlook

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

CPC

For

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Tim

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orec

ast

Lea

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ime

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

TPCOPCHPC

SWPCAWCSPC

Service Center Perspective

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8

Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :

NDFD, Days 4 -7

6-10 Day ForecastM

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Mar

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Seasonal Predictions

WFOs

RFCs

6

CPC Federal / Support Staff & BudgetCPC Federal / Support Staff & Budget

Unit Count

Budget SourceNWS Base Reimbursible*

Director’s Office 4 X

Operations Branch 25 X

Development Branch 21 X

Contractors **

UCAR;CICS; Visitors

25

15

X

X

Total 90

*Sources: Climate Program Office NWS/Intl AffairsNESDISUSAIDNASA

** WYLE Information Systems, McLean, VA

Ongoing CPC Activities

Climate Prediction Products

• Focus on week-2 to seasonal-to-interannual

6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics)

Monthly & Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

Seasonal Drought Outlook

Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific)

Monthly ENSO Prediction

* Dynamical Models • Climate Forecast System• Global Forecast System• ECMWF

Tools used to develop prediction products• Dynamical Models• Statistical Models• Historical Analogs• Historical Composites

Climate Monitoring Products

• Enabled by global observations, CPC monitoring analyzes, documents, and provides data and information on the changing state of the climate and its impacts.

• CPC Monitoring Products include– Primary modes of climate variability

(ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...)– Atmospheric Conditions

(global troposphere and stratosphere)

– Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal)– Storm Tracks and Blocking– Monsoons– Precipitation and Surface Temperature

(global and US)– Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)

Climate Assessment Products

• Synthesis of current weather and climate information and forecasts; issued on a routine basis

– Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web)

– ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD)

– Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web)

– Seasonal Climate Summaries (web)

– Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web)

– Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin)

– Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics) Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection

11

Applied Climate Research (Science and Service Integration)

Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances at NCEP

Climate Forecast System - NOAA’s first dynamic, fully-coupled operational climate forecast model Version 1 operational since Aug 2004

Version 2 operational in Dec 2010

Reanalysis (1979-present; extension to 1948) and Reforecasts

Climate Test Bed – Accelerate the transition of Research to Operations (R2O) CFS improvements

Multi Model Ensemble Prediction Systems

Climate Forecast Products

CPC-CTB-RISA Program; Regional Climate Information

Model Test Facility - Provide CFS and related datasets to community (O2R)

CFS (v1) Implemented

Climate Test Bed spin up

14

FY11 Major Thrust Areas(Operational Activities)

15

FY11 Major Thrust Areas(Developmental Activities)

16

FY11 Major Thrust Areas(Developmental Activities)

CPC and CICS

• Historically: long-standing relationship • Thematically: CPC mission links closely to

CICS science themes• Practically: CICS provides a useful

alternative mechanism for sponsoring visitors and collaborative science at CPC

How is CPC involved with CICS?

Hovmoller Diagram of Precipitation (15oN-15oS)

CPC – CICS/ESSICReliability of Precipitation Forecasts during MJO Events

red lines show evolution from observations (“CMORPH”)

Janowiak1, Bauer2, Wang3, Arkin1, Gottschalck3, 2010: An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts from Operational Models and Reanalyses Including Precipitation Variations Associated with MJO Activity. Mon. Wea. Rev. (in press) 1 CICS/ESSIC 2 ECMWF 3 CPC

“5-day forecasts look good (even out to 10-day forecasts, … although the evolution shows increasing lag with increasing forecast projection)”.

CPC – CICS/ESSICImpact of Initial Conditions and Model Resolution on MJO Forecasts

Previous Work:

• Forecast skill improves when either the atmospheric or oceanic initial conditions are better.• Forecast skill was found to be less sensitive to resolution in GDAS and CDAS.

Current Work:

•Investigating the Maritime Continent Barrier issue

Publications:

Toth Z., et al., 2007: Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting: Research priorities for intra-seasonal prediction. BAMS, 88, 1427- 1429

Gottschalck, et al., 2009: Establishing and Assessing Operational Model MJO Forecasts: A Project of the CLIVAR Madden-Julian Oscillation WorkingGroup, BAMS, Accepted

Vintzileos (CICS/ESSIC), Gottschalck (CPC), Higgins (CPC) et al

CPC –CICS/ESSIC Drought Monitoring and Prediction EffortsKingtse Mo (CPC), Jinho Yoon (CICS/ESSIC) and Li-Chuan Chen (CICS/ESSIC)

Drought Monitoring and Prediction Tasks• Develop next generation Drought Monitor and Seasonal Drought Outlook products• Develop objective drought monitoring based on North American Land Data Assimilation

System• Deliver regional drought information to users via briefings (e.g. Monthly Drought Briefing)

and web pages• Research to improve objective drought forecast products (e.g. SPI forecasts based on the

NCEP Climate Forecast System)

Forecast skill for 4 Downscaling Forecast skill for 4 Downscaling Methods (SPI6)Methods (SPI6)

BCSD

Schaake

Bayesian

Ensemble mean

For leads from 1 to 4 mo, the forecasts are skillful For leads from 1 to 4 mo, the forecasts are skillful and differences are small. At longer leads large and differences are small. At longer leads large differences occur.differences occur.

• Expand use of CICS to hire scientists (i.e. postdocs or CICS contractors) who enhance the provision of applied research, observations, analysis, services and stakeholder input that contributes to CPC mission

• Collaborate with CICS-affiliated researchers on topics of mutual interest

• Coordinate joint visiting scientist programs • Coordinate joint seminar series• Potentially: CPC and CICS could serve as a model for

NWS engagement with the NOAA CIs

Enhancing the Role of CICS at CPC

Forces for Change

Forces for ChangeForces for Change

• NCEP (FY09-13), NWS (2010-2025) & NOAA (FY10-14) Strategic Plans

– CPC 5-Year Implementation and Operations Plan (FY09-13)

• Emergence of NOAA Climate Service– Strategic Vision and Framework– Reprogramming package

• Move to NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction– Opportunities for collaboration

• Climate Prediction– Enhance Intraseasonal-to-Interannual climate forecasts– Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensembles across time scales – Enhance transition activities (Climate Test Bed; Model Test Facility)

• Improve Interactions with Broader Science and Service Community

AONCEP Co-PI

LOIProposal

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h T

op

ics

AONCEP Co-PI

LOIProposal

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h T

op

ics

AONCEP Co-PI

LOIProposal

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h T

op

ics

AONCEP Co-PI

LOIProposal

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h T

op

ics

SummarySummary

CPC• Delivers a suite of “operational” climate prediction,

monitoring, and assessment products

• Accelerates advances in climate prediction and fills gaps in the “seamless suite” of climate products

• Works across NOAA and with other organizations on expanded responsibilities for climate; interdisciplinary approaches are the key to success

• Plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services

• Enthusiastically welcomes the opportunity to work with CICS