Overview of Labour Market Needs: Building the Case for ...mddb.apec.org/Documents/2019/HRDWG/FOR/19_hrdwg_for1_005.pdf · But we know that it is not sufficient to address labor market

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2019/SOM2/HRDWG/FOR/005

Overview of Labour Market Needs: Building the Case for Improving Data Collection and Sharing

Submitted by: Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral

APEC Labour Mobility Statistics ForumViña del Mar, Chile

2-3 May 2019

Overview of labour market needs:

building the case for improving

data collection and sharing

Sara A. Wong*

APEC Labour Mobility Statistics Forum

Viña del Mar, Chile

May 2, 2019

*Professor, ESPAE-Graduate School of Management , and, Director, Center for Asia Pacific Studies. ESPOL Polytechnic University, Guayaquil, ECUADOR

Roadmap…

01

OVERVIEW

Labor market (supply and

demand) in the APEC

02

DATA

SOURCESAPEC: Labor market

data & data sources

03

BRIDGING

THE GAP…

…between data

collection and its use

to inform policy

development in APEC

PART I.- Overview: labour market

(demand and supply) in the APEC region

I. Labour market needs II. Data & data sources III. Bridging the gap

PART I: Overview: labour market (demand and supply) in the

APEC region

OUTLINE

I.1.- THE ROLES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CHANGING LABOUR MARKET BALANCE

● Introduction

● Questions

● Traditional indicators

● (Current) Common issues, common needs

I.2.- THEN, WHAT DATA DO WE HAVE ON THESE ISSUES?

I.3.- AND, WHAT DATA WE WOULD LIKE TO HAVE (more/better)?

I.4.- LIMITATIONS TO IDENTIFY LABOR MARKET IMBALANCES

I.5.- IN SUMMMARY…DATA NEEDS AND WORK AHEAD

I.1.- THE ROLES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CHANGING

LABOUR MARKET BALANCE: Introduction

● Usual indicator of concern for policymakers: the unemployment rate.

○ But we know that it is not sufficient to address labor market needs.

● It gives only a partial picture of differences in labour market conditions across

sub-regions of APEC, or across regions within a nation.

● It may understate regional labour market imbalances.

● There are also questions concerning the contribution of other factors to

unemployment differences

(OECD, 1990, chapter 3)


LABOUR MARKET BALANCE: Questions

● What is the role of the industrial structure of employment in regional unemployment?

● Do regional increases in unemployment reflect a slow pace of employment creation

or, mainly, strong demographic pressures?

● How important have [migration flows] labor mobility been?

● How large have been changes in the level of earnings at the regional level, and what

has been their relationship to local labour market conditions?

(OECD, 1990, chapter 3)


LABOUR MARKET BALANCE: “Traditional” indicators

Mostly readily available:

● Population growth

● Labor force participation rates

● Earnings differentials

But: Labor mobility [Migration], not necessarily readily available

APEC : Different pace of population growth, by nation

Figure 1.-

Population

growth:

Nations of

APEC.

Total.1990

and 2017

-0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

Japan

Singapore

Russia

Chinese Taipei

Thailand

Korea

PRC

APEC Average

United States

Hong Kong, China

Chile

Vietnam

Indonesia

World average

Canada

Peru

Mexico

Brunei

Malaysia

Philippines

Australia

Papua New Guinea

New Zealand

2017

1990

Source:

APEC-World

Bank, World

Development

Indicators

In most nations

population

growth has

slowed down…

APEC : Different pace of population growth, by nation

Figure 1.-

Population

growth:

Nations of

APEC.

Total.1990

and 2017

-0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

Japan

Singapore

Russia

Chinese Taipei

Thailand

Korea

PRC

APEC Average

United States

Hong Kong, China

Chile

Vietnam

Indonesia

World average

Canada

Peru

Mexico

Brunei

Malaysia

Philippines

Australia

Papua New Guinea

New Zealand

2017

1990

Source:

APEC-World

Bank, World

Development

Indicators

…except for

APEC: (Again) Differences in LFP rates: Total, by nation

Figure 2a.-

Labour Force

Participation

rates in APEC

nations: Total,

1990 & 2017

Source:

APEC-World

Bank, World

Development

Indicators

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Philippines

Mexico

World average

Malaysia

Indonesia

Chile

Korea

Brunei

Papua New Guinea

Hong Kong, China

United States

APEC Average

Russia

Thailand

Singapore

PRC

Australia

Japan

Canada

Peru

New Zealand

Viet Nam

2017

1990

In contrast (but

also in most

cases), LFP

rates have

increased

APEC: (Again) Differences in LFP rates: Total, by nation

Figure 2a.-

Labour Force

Participation

rates in APEC

nations: Total,

1990 & 2017

Source:

APEC-World

Bank, World

Development

Indicators

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Philippines

Mexico

World average

Malaysia

Indonesia

Chile

Korea

Brunei

Papua New Guinea

Hong Kong, China

United States

APEC Average

Russia

Thailand

Singapore

PRC

Australia

Japan

Canada

Peru

New Zealand

Viet Nam

2017

1990

…and –in a

few cases–

there are huge

changes ↑ or

↓

Fall in LFP rates VS Increases in school enrollment: the case of PRC

Figure 2c.-

PRC: Labour

force

participation vs

education

enrollment

Source: APEC-World Bank, World Development Indicators

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

per

cen

tage

LabourForce

Secondaryenrollment

Tertiaryenrollment

APEC: (Again) Differences in LFP rates: Female, by nation

Figure 2b.-

Labour Force

Participation

rates in APEC

nations: Total,

1990 & 2017

Source:

APEC-World

Bank, World

Development

Indicators

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Mexico

World average

Philippines

Japan

Chile

Indonesia

Malaysia

Korea

Hong Kong, China

United States

Russia

APEC Average

Brunei

Australia

Thailand

Singapore

Canada

PRC

New Zealand

Papua New Guinea

Peru

Viet Nam

2017

1990

APEC: (Again) Differences in LFP rates: Female, by nation

Figure 2b.-

Labour Force

Participation

rates in APEC

nations: Total,

1990 & 2017

Source:

APEC-World

Bank, World

Development

Indicators

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Mexico

World average

Philippines

Japan

Chile

Indonesia

Malaysia

Korea

Hong Kong, China

United States

Russia

APEC Average

Brunei

Australia

Thailand

Singapore

Canada

PRC

New Zealand

Papua New Guinea

Peru

Viet Nam

2017

1990

APEC: Net migration shows policies, recipients & sending nations

Figure 3a.-

Net migration

in APEC

countries.

1989-1992,

2013-2017

-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00

Mexico

Peru

Thailand

Philippines

Viet Nam

Indonesia

PRC

Papua New Guinea

Japan

Chile

Korea

Brunei

Malaysia

Russia

United States

Australia

Canada

Hong Kong, China

New Zealand

Singapore

2013-17

1988-92

Source: World Bank,

World Development

Indicators

Note: Net migration

is the net total of

migrants during the

period, that is, the

total number of

immigrants less the

annual number of

emigrants, including

both citizens and

noncitizens. Data

are five-year

estimates.

Recent international labor migration shows Asia as a destination with the

largest annual change in the number of international migrants

Figure 3b.-

International labour

migration, by

region. Last three

decades

Note: Crude net migration rate:

The ratio of net migration during

the year to the average

population in that year. The

value is expressed per 1 000

inhabitants.

Source: United Nations, DESA-

Population Division and UNICEF

(2014). Migration Profiles -

Common Set of Indicators.

Recent international labor migration shows Asia-Asia as the most

used corridor by international migrants

Figure 3c.-

International labour

migration, by

region. Last three

decades

Note: Crude net migration rate:

The ratio of net migration during

the year to the average

population in that year. The

value is expressed per 1 000

inhabitants.

Some APEC economies show a gender wage gap above the world

average

Figure 4.- Gender

wage gap in APEC:

Mean and median

hour gender pay gap

(as percentage), 2017

Source:

APEC-World

Bank, World

Development

Indicators

-15 -5 5 15 25 35

Philippines

Thailand

Mexico

Viet Nam

Australia

Chile

APEC average

Peru

World average

Canada

United States

PRC

Indonesia

Russia

Korea

Mean gender pay gap Median gender pay gap

Note: The raw gender pay gap

refers simply to the difference in pay

between women and men at a

specific point in time. Positive

values indicates that men earn more

than women. For example, if

women’s pay is 75 per cent of

men’s, it is said that the gender pay

gap is 25 per cent

So… what happens with the unemployment rate in APEC

economies?

Figure 5.-

Unemployment rates

in APEC, 1991, 2018

Source: World

Bank, World

Development

Indicators

Coincidently, it is

considerably lower

now in some

economies with

good labor data, and

that use it to inform

policy. No causation

implied.


LABOUR MARKET BALANCE: Common issues, common

needsCurrently:

● Labour market shortages and mismatches, dubbed as “a major factor inhibiting investment

and economic development across APEC” (Iradale et al. 2014, APEC): needs to be

addressed. But also:

○ labour market surpluses and

○ Changing aptitudes (e.g. more tech) & attitudes (e.g. value more flexible time) in labor supply

● Migration // international labour mobility: needs an effective governance (ILO, 2018)

● (Other) Gaps: gender gaps // age gaps (ageing working pop.) // minority/ethnic gaps

● Vulnerable labour market segments, e.g. domestic workers, the youth

● Social security (ageing working pop.)


LABOUR MARKET BALANCE: note

● As well as others related to SDGs:

○ Forced labour

○ Green jobs

○ Etc…

● Although we see them all as separate, they may be / are interlinked between

them and/or with other important issues in an economy such as informality,

health, education, transportation, national security, etc.


a.- On talent shortage and skills mismatches in APEC:

● From private sources, such as MANPOWER, and a few others

● APEC Skills Mapping Power: but not completely populated yet.


Labour force surveys

data on talent shortages

& skill mismatches show

an increase in talent

shortages over time –in

most APEC economies

for which data is

available

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2015 2018

Figure 5.- Percent of

employers in selected

economies having

difficulty filling

vacancies 2013, 2015,

2018

Source: ManPower (“Talent Shortage Survey”), various issues.



Table 1.-

Top ten jobs

employers

have

difficulty

filling

Rank Global Americas Asia-Pacific1 Skilled Trade Workers Skilled Trades Workers Sales Representatives2 Sales Representatives Technicians Engineers3 Engineers Sales Representatives Technicians4 Technicians Secretaries/Adm./Office Support Skilled Trade Workers5 Drivers Drivers It Staff6 Management/Executives Engineers Accounting and Finance Staff7 Accounting and Finance Staff Management/Executives Management/Executives8 Secretaries/Adm./Office Support Production Operators Secretaries/Adm./Office Support9 It Staff Accounting and Finance Staff Sales Managers

10 Production/Operators Laborers Drivers

2015

2013



Table 2.-

APEC:

Sub-regional

trends in skill

Shortage /

surpluses

Sub-region Countries Trends and observations

Industrialized

economies

Australia

Canada

Japan

New Zealand

United States

The problem has worsened in these countries except in Australia and New Zealand. Skilled trades jobs are

the hardest to fill in this sub region, except for Japan. These countries are trying to tackle the problem

through training and migration programs. The former have been well developed. However, migration

responses have been delayed or have not been sufficient, For instance: Japan is just recently starting a

program to attract 345K low-skilled workers from overseas; the current government of the US is reluctant to

friendly immigration policies.

Newly

industrialized

economies

Hong Kong

Korea

Singapore

Chinese Taipei

Hong Kong, Singapore and Chinese Taipei are in the top 5 of the most affected by talent shortage.

Moreover, the problem has been aggravated in recent years. These economies have grown rapidly,

undergoing a fast industrial transformation. For this reason, training programs would have focused on

technical roles. Altough engineers are still highly demanded, other soft skills jobs are hardest to fill, e.g.

sales representatives. In Singapore, there is a lack of accounting and finance staff, probably due to the large

development of their financial sector

Economic

emerging from a

largely

agricultural base

China

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Philippines

Vietnam

China is one of the countries with the lowest rate of managers reporting problems to fill job vacancies. In

fact, the latest survey showed an improvement regarding to talent shortage. However, technicians and soft

skills workers, such as sales representatives, sales managers and executives are difficult to hire. Despite

well noted differences between China and the rest of countries, there seems to be a mismatch between

the industry dynamic and training programs provided by institutions

Spanish speaking

economies

Chile, Mexico,

Peru

As other Latin American economies, the informal sector portion in the labour market is large. Regarding to

talent shortage, Peru have shown the greatest comeback. They cut the percentage of employers having

difficulties to fill positions from 68% to 43%. Mexico improved to a lesser a extent. Skilled trades as well a

secretaries and administrative/office support staff are the hardest workers to hire in both countries.



A word of caution on data available on talent shortages & skill mismatches:

● Data from Manpower -and others sources alike- have received criticisms for not

showing/publishing the methodology of the survey data collection.

● Even when APEC member maintain its own labour info systems, may not meet

objectives of the APEC Skills Mapping Project (APEC 2014):○ May not collect appropriate info to identify skills shortages or surpluses

○ May have potential inaccuracies due to time-lag, quality of data, uneven data sources

○ Soft skills rarely covered

○ No faciilty for sharing data across APEC (APEC 204)

● Thus, APEC economy statistics are unlikey to provide región-wide data in the short-

term (APEC, 2014).

!


b.- On international labour migration, APEC.

To be discussed later in the forum. Thus, we do not cover it here.

I.3.- AND, WHAT DATA WE WOULD LIKE TO HAVE

(more/better)?

a.- On labor market talent shortages and skill imbalances in APEC

● Harmonised (definitions, measurements, classifications)

● Representative

● Reliable

● Readily available

--- WHY?

● Valuable for the economy to have an adequate and appropriate supply of human

skills

● Better targeting training programs, incentives, etc. to develop skills needed

● Important to have not just technical skills, but also “soft” skills

● Better tailoring of migration programs (both immigration & emigration)


(more/better)?

b.- On international labour mobility, APEC.

● Data on international / regional / subregional movement patterns of workers (and

domestic, and between domestic regions),

○ in particular need labour mobility patterns across the developing world.

● See ILO (2018), Brooks et al. (2015), ILO 20th ICLS (Guidelines concerning

statistics on international labour migration )

https://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/meetings-and-events/international-conference-of-labour-statisticians/WCMS_648922/lang--en/index.htm


(more/better)?

● On (other) GAPs (SDGs):

- Gender mainstreaming (Gender Mainstreaming in Labour Statistics )

- Time use (Room document 18 - Survey methods to improve measurement of paid and

unpaid work: Country practices in time-use measurement ) (Time-Use Statistics )

- Age gaps

- Minority/ethnic gaps

● On vulnerable labour market segments (SDGs):

- domestic workers,

- youth unemployment(Resolution III: Resolution concerning the methodology of the SDG

Indicator 8.b.1 on youth employment)

● On Social Security (SDGs)

https://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/meetings-and-events/international-conference-of-labour-statisticians/20/WCMS_646767/lang--en/index.htm

https://www.ilo.org/stat/Publications/WCMS_636055/lang--en/index.htm




(more/better)?

● On forced labour: see ILO 20th ICLS (Draft guidelines on measurement of forced labour)

● On better work environment

● On other jobs:

- Volunteering (Measurement of volunteer work: progress and challenges)

- Green (Statistics on employment in the environmental sector and green jobs)


https://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/meetings-and-events/international-conference-of-labour-statisticians/WCMS_646909/lang--en/index.htm


I.4.- LIMITATIONS TO IDENTIFY LABOR MARKET IMBALANCES

● Lack of comparable/transparent common occupation & industry classification systems.

● Lack of comparable National Qualifications Framework (NQFs)

● Concerns on the quality of available labour market data.

○ E.g. weak survey design, low response rates, faulty sampling, etc.

○ Other shortcomings: changed definitions and concepts applied to the same survey, or different definitions in different surveys

by different data producers but pertaining to the same subject.

● Uncertainty of non-official labour market studies.

● Not collecting adequate information to identify shortages or surpluses.

○ There may not be motivation to identify shortages and surpluses

● Inadequate data on ‘soft’ skills.

● No protocol for sharing economy-specific data

● Changing nation context (gov, culture, laws, interests, shocks, etc diverse & different data priorities)

(Iradale et al, 2014, APEC Report)

I.5.- IN SUMMARY, REASONS TO INVEST IN IMPROVING THE

QUALITY OF DATA, ACCESS TO DATA

● For evidence-based labour policies & other related policies

○ E.g. skilled-biased migration polices

○ Informed social policies using labour data and other related data: CCT (e.g. Ecuador case: using survey data, point

of service data from financial institutions)

○ Labour data and educational and training policies

● To gauge and address the common issues (that impact labor markets) listed above:

vulnerable workers, youth unemployment, gender gaps, better work environment.

● To respond/seize Globalization challenges (international labor mobility)

● APEC’s prevalence of FTA and RTAs:

○ trade impacts on labor market

○ labor market chapter

PART II.- APEC labour market: data and

data sources


PART II.- APEC LABOUR MARKETS: DATA and DATA

SOURCESFrom:

● Multilateral institutions

● APEC

● National sources

● Think tanks

II.- APEC LABOUR MARKETS: DATA and DATA SOURCES :

introduction

● ….MANY initiatives !!!

Broadly speaking:

● There are clear differences, by nation, in access, availability, quality, timeliness, use to

inform policy; tiers of economies

● Need to improve data collection (How? To be addressed later by other speakers)

● Need to build capacity (How? To be addressed later by other speakers)

● Need to prioritize issues


Multilateral institutions

● …MANY initiatives (ILO, WB, OECD, IADB, etc.)

● …MANY initiatives within ILO, here we have already mentioned ILO – 20th ICLS

II.- APEC LABOUR MARKETS, DATA and DATA SOURCES :

ILO

Also within ILO:

● ILO Stats

● “Traditional”

○ Household Surveys. (See 20th International Conference on Labour Statisticians, Inter-secretariat Working Group

on Household Surveys )

○ Censuses Perhaps opportunity to address migration issues in next wave of censuses

● Nontraditional

○ Big data. (See 20th International Conference on Labour Statisticians, Big Data and the Future of Labor Market

Statistics )

○ Admin. data




APEC

● ….SEVERAL initiatives, here we summarize only:

● National sources

● APEC Skills Mapping Project.

● Also: there are many APEC, or APEC related reports on labour market data

issues (APEC, 2012; APEC, 2014; Brooks et al. 2015; etc, etc., etc.)

II.- APEC LABOUR MARKETS DATA and DATA SOURCES :

National sources

● ….MANY initiatives, here we highlight only government sources, in particular

labour force surveys

Table.- Labour Force Survey data in APEC economiies

Source: ILO (https://www.ilo.org/surveydata/index.php/catalog/history) and various official websites of the APEC economies.

Note: If the survey is not released periodically, the latest time span between surveys is reported as frequency of data collection

Nationality/

citizenshipBirthplace

Previous

residence

Household

members

Labor force

statusEducation Occupation

Status in

employment

Monthly

wages

Hours

worked

Australia Monthly

Brunei 3-year

Canada Monthly

Chile Quarterly

Chinese Taipei Monthly

Hong Kong, China Quarterly

Indonesia Biannual

Japan Monthly/Quarterly

Korea Monthly

Malaysia Monthly

Mexico Quarterly

New Zealand Quarterly

Papua New Guinea 2009-2010*

Peru Quarterly

Philippines Quarterly

PRC

Russia Quarterly

Singapore Monthly

Thailand Quarterly

United States Monthly

Vietnam Quarterly

Key questions on migration Key labour market variables5

CountryKey Labour Market variables

Frequency of

data collection


THINK TANKS, private sector, universities, FTAs…

● ….MAY BE MANY initiatives, here we summarize only

○ MANPOWER, talent shortage report: based on a nation survey

○ WEF, Labor market efficiency pillar: most indicators based on Executive Opinion

Survey (EOS), just a few from secondary data (e.g. labor force participation).

○ FTAs, RTAs from APEC members: Under-collected, under-utilized. What

developments, what information?

PART III.- Bridging the gap between

data collection and its use to inform policy

development


PART III: Bridging the gap between data collection and its

use to inform policy development

OUTLINE

III.1.- GLOBAL DATA ISSUES IN LABOR MARKETS

III.2.- REGIONAL EFFORTS, APEC

III.3.- COMMON PRINCIPLES FOR GREAT LABOR MARKET DATA

III.1.- GLOBAL DATA ISSUES IN LABOR MARKETS

● Work global data issues together with multilateral organizations with expertise

on labor data collections, such as ILO.

○ Clearly: on talent shortages, skills imbalances, and

○ International labour migration

● Pending issues/data needs summarized in:

○ ILO report on 20th ILO ICLS (Oct. 2018)

○ ILO report on 19th ILO ICLS (Oct. 2013): what has been done, what remains to be done.

III.2.- REGIONAL EFFORTS

● Pursue regional efforts to reduce asymmetries between APEC economies in data

collection and its use to inform policy development

● ON IMPROVING DATA COLLECTION

○ Data harmonisation / transparency

○ Technological adoption

○ Surveys VS admin data

This implies efforts on building capacity (where?, to whom?, how?)

● FOR CAPACITY BUILDING

○ Educational and Training Institutions (private/public? Which workers?) APEC (2012)

○ Disseminating good practices.- APEC (2012)

III.3.- COMMON PRINCIPLES FOR GREAT (Good, Reliable,

Available, Timely) LABOR MARKET DATA

● Coordination between different agencies that collect data

● Not just about labor market (supply and demand) but also about training, education,

migration.

● TICs to gather, process, and make it available.

● Simplified and customized information for individuals.

● Continuous research to improve data service.

● Use of data on academic research.

● Common practices in data harmonisation./ transparency / dissemination

● Application of surveys VS admin data, or rather surveys & admin data.


Available, Timely) LABOR MARKET DATA: new data /methods

● Application of new data collection methods and new data:

○ e.g. GIS data for certain issues like mapping vulnerable labor population (work places)

● Big data for certain issues

○ e.g. on work commuting for solving/avoiding transport congestion (see case of Hanzhou, China)


Available, Timely) LABOR MARKET DATA: what about policy

● Keeping in mind: data to inform policy development…What policies? Which programs?

● Global issues ?

● Regional issues ? (within APEC?, within economies?)

● National / local issues


Available, Timely) LABOR MARKET DATA: what about policy

● “…skilled-biased migration policies in developed nations. …very limited empirical evidence on the

nexus between the skill intensity of foreign labour and wider economic benefits.” “…to formulate

better policies, APEC and member economies should comprehensively analyse the costs and

benefits of skilled and unskilled labour mobility policies.”

● “However, other factors, such as educational opportunities, health services, political stability and the

availability of social protection programs are also important pull or push factors for mobile workers.

In this sense, economies aiming to attract more workers can look beyond the labour market for

policy responses.”

● “However, considering evidence that some social protection programs can increase hiring costs and

therefore reduce demand for certain type of labour, further work is needed to understand which

programs are more beneficial to retain and attract labour. Again, better data can help researchers

breach this gap.”

E.g.- On international labour migration, APEC. Report on Enhancing Labour Mobility in the APEC Region” Brooks et al. (2015)

Thank you for your attention!

[email protected]