Overview, Discussion, and Prioritization of Science, Data, and Information Gaps (Handout 1):

Overview, Discussion, and Prioritization of Science, Data, and Information Gaps (Handout 1):

Levi Brekke & David Raff (Reclamation, TSC)

R&D Scoping and Framing Workshop:R&D Roadmap – Managing Western Water as Climate Changes

Denver, CO February 20-21, 2008

Yesterday to Today

• Gap Assessment: Anecdotal to Compartmental

• Many timescales to Long Term (> 5 years)• Manifestation of vetting process through

CCAWWG• Handout Gaps are culmination of project

experiences (LC EIS, MP, PN) and CCAWWG input.

Reclamation Decision TypesOffice Type Decision Type

Planning NEPA

ESA Consultations

General Planning

Operations Scheduling NEPA processes, ESA consultation, General Planning

Flood Rule Curve Development

Office of Programs and Policy Services (OPPS)

NEPA / ESA implementation policies

Dam Safety Office (DSO)

CFR and Issue Evaluations

Conceptual rule curveConceptual rule curve

Basic Flood Control Diagram

3152.1

3352.1

3552.1

3752.1

3952.1

4152.1

4352.1

4552.1

Sep-06

Oct-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar-07

Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug-07

Month

Reserv

oir

po

ol

ele

vati

on

, T

AF

Rule Curve

Flood Control Pool

ConservationPool

No

START

Question 7)Should effects disclosure

be based on projected climate change?

Option 4:Quantitative Sensitivity Analysis, where effects disclosure is based on continuation of recent climate; but disclosure is complemented by parallel analysis assuming

projected climate change

Option 5:Quantitative Effects Analysis, where disclosure is based on a

projected climate scenario rather than continued recent climate

Option 1:No Analysis

Question 6)Is look-ahead more than

~15 to 20 years?

Significant Sensitivity?Question 1)

Is climate relevant to theproposed project?

Question 2) Is look-ahead relevanton a climate change

time scale?

Question 3) Are regional projections

of climate changeavailable?

Option 2:Literature Review;

Present Relevant Information

Question 4) Do regional projections

suggest significantchange?

Question 5) Is it preferable to

follow lead of partneragency?

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

IPCC 2007: (a) climate is generally assessed over a 20- to 30-year period; (b) climate change is generally measured as statistical changes between periods of 10 years or longer. (http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Pub_Annexes.pdf)

Option 3:Literature Review, andQualitative Analysis

Option 6:Follow lead of

Partner-Agency

END

Options 4 and 5 include the same Literature Review as in Option 3.

No

No

Don’t Know

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

No

START

Question 7)Should effects disclosure

be based on projected climate change?

Option 4:Quantitative Sensitivity Analysis, where effects disclosure is based on continuation of recent climate; but disclosure is complemented by parallel analysis assuming

projected climate change

Option 5:Quantitative Effects Analysis, where disclosure is based on a

projected climate scenario rather than continued recent climate

Option 1:No Analysis

Question 6)Is look-ahead more than

~15 to 20 years?

Significant Sensitivity?Question 1)

Is climate relevant to theproposed project?

Question 2) Is look-ahead relevanton a climate change

time scale?

Question 3) Are regional projections

of climate changeavailable?

Option 2:Literature Review;

Present Relevant Information

Question 4) Do regional projections

suggest significantchange?

Question 5) Is it preferable to

follow lead of partneragency?

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

IPCC 2007: (a) climate is generally assessed over a 20- to 30-year period; (b) climate change is generally measured as statistical changes between periods of 10 years or longer. (http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Pub_Annexes.pdf)

Option 3:Literature Review, andQualitative Analysis

Option 6:Follow lead of

Partner-Agency

END

Options 4 and 5 include the same Literature Review as in Option 3.

No

No

Don’t Know

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Scoping Questions and Answers leading to an Analytical Approach for Long-Term Planning Processes Requiring Projected Information

1. Summarize Literature

2. Obtain Climate Projection Data

3. Translate Climate Projection Data into Planning Scenarios

4. Assess Natural Systems Response (Hydrol., Ecosys.)

5. Assess Social Systems Response (eg. Water Demand)

6. Assess Operations and Dependent Resources Response

7. Assess & Characterize Uncertainties (from Elements 2-6)

8. Communicate Uncertainties and Incorporate into Decision-Making

End

Start

Generalized Analytical Sequence and Elements involved with relating projected Climate Change Information in Decisions

1. Summarize Literature

• Description– explain climate change relevance to project– summarize state of science, impacts studies,

current projections

• Current Capabilities– examples

• Long Form (LC/UC Coord. Ops. EIS, App. U)• Short Form (PN Yakima Storage, draft PR/EIS)

1. Summarize Literature

• Gaps(1.1) Clearinghouse, Scientific Literature

(1.2) Region-specific Literature Summaries for GP, LC*, MP, PN, UC*

• Exception: LC/UC Colorado River Basin

2. Obtain Climate Projections Data

• Description– focus on contemporary information– spatially downscaled, with model biases

understood or accounted for

• Current Capabilities– Reclamation-LLNL-SCU archive

• statistically downscaled WCRP CMIP3 projections• http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/

2. Obtain Climate Projections Data

• Gaps(2.1) Downscaled data at finer resolutions

(space and/or time) and different variables

(2.2) Downscaled data that isn’t based on “stationarity” (e.g., potentially revealed using regional climate models)

(2.3) Evaluation and Verification of downscaled data

3. Translate Climate Projections Data into Planning Scenarios

• Description– Decision: projections weighting or culling– Decision: projection features to represent

(e.g., time-series, change in norms)

• Current Capabilities– IPCC 2007 offers guidance on how to

relatively regard projected conditions– peer review literature offers weighting

methods based on climate model skill

• Gaps(3.1) Basis for weighting Emissions Paths

(3.2) How to jointly consider paleoclimate, near-term climate variability, and projected climate

(3.3) How to assess extreme meteorological possibilities in a changing climate

3. Translate Climate Projections Data into Planning Scenarios

4. Assess Natural Systems Response

• Description– analyze runoff, land cover, and ecosystems

response related to operations response– develop “climate change” weather as inputs to

such response models

• Current Capabilities– Surface Water Runoff:

• access to peer-review methods, several models

• Gaps(4.1) Climate impact on groundwater and

interaction with surface water(4.2) Climate impact on land cover and

ecosystems(4.3) How to assess flood control rule

requirements in a changing climate(4.4) How to assess extreme hydrologic

possibilities related to dam safety in a changing climate

(4.5) Guidance on runoff analysis dependence on method/tool; and method/tool preference

4. Assess Natural Systems Response

5. Assess Social Systems Response

• Description– analyze water and power demands response– consider changes in flood protection values,

environmental management values– assess at “aggregated” to local scale

• Current Capabilities– More experience with local assessments (e.g.,

crop-specific water use requirements)

• Gaps(5.1) How to project social responses to that

constrain operations (e.g., water demands, flood protection, environmental values)

(5.2) Crop water demand response to climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes

5. Assess Social Systems Response

6. Assess Operations and Dependent Resources Response

• Description– Operations analyses given adjusted supplies,

demands, and constraints based on results from elements 4 and 5

– Subsequent analyses: WQ, power, econ.

• Current Capabilities– Some regions have experience analyzing

current operations under climate change– Access to two approaches: “static” vs.

“crystal-ball” operators

• Gaps(6.1) Experience conducting policy-search

studies (e.g., “crystal-ball” operator, optimization)

(6.2) How to blend “static” and “crystal-ball” operator depictions into realistic portrayal of operations unfolding under climate change

(6.3) How to analyze operations impacts on climate

6. Assess Operations and Dependent Resources Response

7. Assess and Characterize Uncertainties

• Description– Uncertainties are introduced in elements 2-6– Sources include data and methods

• Current Capabilities– Reclamation has tools for conducting

uncertainty analysis on an element-specific basis

• Gaps(7.1) How to assess and characterize

uncertainties by element

(7.2) How to how uncertainties interrelate and/or compound across elements

7. Assess and Characterize Uncertainties

8. Communicate Uncertainties and Incorporate into Decision-Making

• Description– Packaging results and uncertainty information

for non-technical audiences, decision-makers

• Current Capabilities– Reclamation is experienced with

communicating general planning results and uncertainties to such audiences

• Gaps(8.1) Experience communicating uncertainties

associated with climate change and its relation to Reclamation planning processes

8. Communicate Uncertainties and Incorporate into Decision-Making

Lunch Break

List of Projects and Proposals in relation to covering Gaps

HANDOUT 2

Ongoing Projects that Address Gaps

Title: Literature Reviews - Climate Change Science & Regional Studies

Related Gap: 1.2 (Region-specific Literature Summaries)

Purpose: Summarizing climate change science and assessments on a region-specific basis.

Project Management: L. Brekke (lead), ~75K (Reclamation), ~0.50yrs

Project II.1

Title: Development and Comparison of Long-Term Planning Hydrologies using Alternate Climate Information Sets

Related Gap: 3.2 (how to jointly incorporate paleoclimate, near-term decadal climate variability, and projected climate into these planning processes)

Purpose: Illustrate how long-term hydrologic planning hydrologies differ when developed relative to different climate information sets.

Project Management: L. Brekke (Reclamation), 0.75 Year, 106K (Reclamation, NOAARISA, Army Corps of Engineers)

Project II.2

Title:Technology Transfer and Orientation – VIC Hydrologic Models

Related Gap:4.5 (Guidance on runoff analysis dependence on method/tool; and method/tool preference)

Purpose:Reclamation collaborating with University of Washington (UW) to acquire VIC applications developed for Western U.S. basins.

Project Management: L. Brekke (Reclamation), 0.5 Year, 43K (Reclamation)

Project II.3

Title:Reconciling Projections of Future Colorado River Stream Flow

Related Gap:4.5 (Guidance on runoff analysis dependence on method/tool; and method/tool preference)

Purpose: Identify and evaluate runoff modeling approach differences of NOAA-RISA CRB predictions, and involves collaboration among the four NOAA-RISAs.

Project Management: R. Webb (NOAA), 1 Year, 250K (NOAA)

Project II.4

Title: Hydroclimatic Index for Drought Monitoring in the Colorado River Basin

Related Gap: 4.5 (Guidance on runoff analysis dependence on method/tool; and method/tool preference)

Purpose: Apply the Hydroclimatic Index (HI), to monitoring and predicting drought occurrence across the Colorado River Basin (CRB).

Project Management: M. Haws (Reclamation), 2 Years, 75K (Reclamation, NOAA)

Project II.5

Title: Exploring the use of Climate Change Information within the Dam Safety Office Comprehensive Facility Review Process

Related Gap: 3.3 (Do meteorological estimates based on historical information remain valid), 4.4 (How climate change will affect storm type, duration, frequency)

Purpose: Determine if and how climate change information should be incorporated into risk based assessment of hydrologic hazard to Reclamation facilities.

Project Management: D. Raff, 1 Year, 125K (Reclamation, Army Corps of Engineers)

Project II.6

Title: Economics Of Climate Change

Related Gap:1.2 (Region-specific Literature Summaries)

Purpose:To review and summarize the available research on the economic impacts of climate change as it pertains to western water issues

Project Management: S. Piper (Reclamation), 0.2 Years, 28K (Reclamation)

Project II.7

Title:Past Climate Change and Groundwater Influences to Historic Streamflow Traces

Related Gap: 4.1 (Climate impact on groundwater and interaction with surface water)

Purpose:To investigate the consequences of using historic streamflows in flood operations by removing the effects of climate change and groundwater development from historic unregulated streamflows.

Project Management: L. Stillwater (Reclamation), 0.5 Year, 35K (Reclamation)

Project II.8

Title:Assessing and Reducing the Uncertainty of Predictions from Hydraulic and Hydrologic Models

Related Gap:7.1 (How to assess and characterize uncertainties by element), 7.2 (How to how uncertainties interrelate and/or compound across elements)

Purpose:To develop a methodology and associated software to assess parameter uncertainty and its impact on the predictions of hydrologic, hydraulic, and sediment transport models.

Project Management: B. Greimann (Reclamation), 2 Year, 50K (Reclamation)

Project II.9

Title:CPAPP

Related Gap: Actual Project Unidentified - Input Requested

Purpose: Post-Doc installed in management agency coordinated with recenarch agency

Project Management: B. Udall (NOAA-RISA WWA)

Project II.NEW

Title:Predicting relative risk of invasion by saltcedar and mud snails in river networks under different scenarios of climate change and dam operations in the western United States

Related Gap: Actual Project Unidentified - Input Requested

Purpose: Predicting the spread and establishment of invasive species in river ecosystems under climate change

Project Management: N. LeRoy Poff, B. Bledsoe, D. Dean (CSU), J. Friedman, G. Auble, P. Shafroth (USGS), D. Raff (Reclamation), D. Merritt (USFS), D. Lytle (OSU), D. Purkey (SEI)

Project II.NEW

HANDOUT 3

Proposed Projects that wouldfurther Address Gaps

Disclaimers

• Proposed project costs and cost-sharing only represents an initial, conceptual collaboration as a starting point for discussions and does not represent a commitment by an agency at this time.

• As projects move forward toward implementation; the scope of work, collaborator participation, and project budgets will need further development.

Title: Potential impacts to riparian ecosystems under conditions of elevated CO2

Related Gap: 1.2 (Region-specific Literature Summaries)

Purpose: Summarize literature on the potential impacts to riverine/riparian habitats under elevated atmospheric CO2.

Project Management: D. Anderson (lead), ~35K (USGS/Reclamation), ~0.25yrs

Project III.1

Title: Archive and Website Enhancements (“Statistically Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections”)

Related Gap: 2.1 (Downscaled data at finer resolutions (space and/or time) and different variables)

Purpose: Expand archive content to include Tmin, Tmax, drought indices; modify website.

Project Management: L. Brekke (lead), ~90K (Reclamation/NOAA), ~0.5yrs

Project III.2

Title: Technology Transfer and Evaluation – GSFlow

Related Gap: 4.1 (Climate impact on groundwater and interaction with surface water)

Purpose: Implement GSFlow in PN basins where Modflow and PRMS have been implemented; compare results and evaluate tool utility for Reclamation planning under climate change.

Project Management: S. Markstrom (lead), ~100K (USGS/Reclamation), ~0.5yrs

Project III.3

Title: Climate change, reservoir management, and the differential success of invasive and native riparian plants

Related Gaps: 4.2 (Climate impact on land cover and ecosystems) 5.1 (How to project social responses that constrain operations)

Purpose: For focal invasive and threatened taxa, assess projected biological response based on biological response knowledge and projected scenarios of climate and runoff

Project Management: P. Shafroth (lead), ~75K/yr (USGS/Reclamation), ~2yrs

Project III.4

Title: Reclamation Collaboration with USGS Modeling of Watershed Systems project in the Upper Gunnison River Basin (GRB)

Related Gaps: 4.2 (Climate impact on land cover and ecosystems)

Purpose: Design and implement comparative calibration experiments to reveal potential of dynamic parameters and use of MODIS SCA.

Project Management: L. Hay (lead), ~100K (USGS/Reclamation), ~1yrs

Project III.5

Title: Sensitivity of Runoff Model Development to Climate Regime and Implications for Application under Climate Change)

Related Gaps: 4.5 (Guidance on runoff analysis dependence on method/tool; and method/tool preference)

Purpose: Design and implement calibration/validation experiments to reveal relative robustness of model structures when calibrated and applied to different climates.

Project Management: L. Brekke (lead), ~100K (Reclamation/USGS), ~1yr

Project III.6

Title: Significance of Operations Model Uncertainty for Comparative Studies

Related Gaps: 7.1 (How to assess and characterize uncertainties by element)

Purpose: Utilize results from Monte Carlo analyses already conducted separately on comparative ops. studies to assess implications for assessing study differences.

Project Management: L. Brekke (lead), ~15K (Reclamation), ~0.25yrs

Project III.7

Title: Vulnerability of US Water Supply

Related Gaps: 4.2, 5.2 (Crop water demand response to climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes), 7.2 (How to how uncertainties interrelate and/or compound across elements)

Purpose: Assess vulnerability of water supplies and operations during next 50 years, where available water for diversion would be analyzed using the Statistical Dynamical Ecohydrology Model of Kochendorfer and Ramirez (2008).

Project Management: D. Raff (contact; CSU proposal), ~120K (Reclamation), ~2yrs

Project III.8

Title: Assessing Snowpack and Runoff from Colorado’s Headwater Basins Using a Very High Resolution Fully Coupled Atmospheric-Hydrologic Model

Related Gap: 2.1, 2.2 (Downscaled data that isn’t based on “stationarity”), 4.2

Purpose: Use regional climate model to reveal role of complex topography, without stationarity

Project Management: D. Raff (contact; NCAR proposal), ~150K to 250K (NCAR/Reclamation), ~1 to 2 yrs

Project III.9

Title: Eco-hydrology Impact Analysis

Related Gap: 4.2, 7.1, 7.2

Purpose: Examine operations response to climate change given joint changes in land cover and demographics. Design analysis framework to reveal uncertainty sources and propagation.

Project Management: D. Raff (contact; CSU proposal), ~120K (USGS/Reclamation), ~2yrs

Project III.10

Title: Predicting Colonization of Reservoir Margins by Invasive Plants

Related Gap: 5.1

Purpose: Survey existing populations of invasive species along margins of key reservoirs and develop models predicting future changes from shifts in climate and water demand

Project Management: J. Friedman (lead), ~65K/yr (USGS/Reclamation), ~2yrs

Project III.11

Potential Reclamation efforts - Concepts only – no projects formulated at this time

12) Region-support and Corporate Knowledge Building: staff training oriented toward contracting technical reps and technical staff

13) Support Decadal Scale Climate Prediction Research: explore role of management agencies to help focus efforts on this topic

Projects III.12 and 13