Overview

Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis Assumptions & Results

Markets CommitteeOctober 22, 2008 John Norden

MC Meeting October 22, 2008Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis 2008 ISO New England Inc.

OverviewPresent Results of Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis (DROCA)Why DROCAUses for the dataAssumption DevelopmentReview System Wide AnalysisReview Load Zone AnalysisAppendices *


Why a Demand Response Operable Capacity AnalysisThe Market Rule changes approved by the MC and PC and filed with the FERC on October 1, 2008 require the following:III.13.1.4.8. Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis. The ISO shall perform a Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis, which estimates the expected dispatch hours of active Demand Resources given different assumed levels of Demand Resources clearing in the primary Forward Capacity Auction, prior to each primary Forward Capacity Auction. The Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis shall be performed: (i) on a system-wide and Load Zone basis, (ii) at least 30 business days prior to the Existing Capacity Qualification Deadline, with the exception that the Demand Resource Operable Capacity Analysis shall be performed at least 30 business days prior to the first day of the Forward Capacity Auction for the Capacity Commitment Period beginning June 1, 2011*


Uses for Demand Resource Operable Capacity AnalysisProvides a system wide forecast of potential Demand Resource usage in the Capacity Commitment Period (CCP) prior to participating in the Forward Capacity AuctionProvides a Load Zone forecast of potential Demand Resource usage in the CCP prior to participating in the Forward Capacity AuctionProvides information for use during the auction process to aid in determining potential Demand Resource operationThe ISO plans to release the spreadsheet used to develop this analysis so that participants can develop their own scenarios and assumptionsAfter the MC meeting on 10/22, the presentation and supporting spreadsheets will be posted in a new subdirectory at http://www.iso-ne.com/markets/othrmkts_data/fcm/reports/index.html

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AssumptionsThe analysis uses assumptions based uponPurchasing the required amount of Installed Capacity Requirement (ICR) for the System Wide studyA set of Transmission Security Analysis values developed by System Planning for the Load Zone studiesDetailed assumptions appear in the Appendices to this presentation

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DisclaimersSystem Wide numbers have been updated to reflect capacity qualification for FCA #2Final auction results may clear more or less resources and can significantly change the forecasted interruptions Load Zone and System Wide hours of operation have potential overlap. The Load Zone hours of operation are so small that this should not be a concern. Future analysis will have to consider overlap hours if local operation increasesThe analysis is a forecast only and should be used at the participants' sole discretion. Actual conditions could vary widely from the forecast developed. *


SUMMARY OF RESULTSSYSTEM WIDE*


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New England Intermediate Scenario Active DR and OP 4 Need*


New England Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


*New England Summary of ResultsLow, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast


SUMMARY OF RESULTSLOAD ZONES*


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CT Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


CT Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast*


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ME Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


ME Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast*


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NH Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


NH Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast*


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WCMASS Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


WCMASS Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast*


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VT Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


VT Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast*


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SEMA Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


SEMA Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast*


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NEMASS/Boston Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


NEMASS/Boston Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast*


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RI Monthly Results Intermediate DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


RI Summary of Results Low, Inter & High DR Scenarios with 50-50 Load Forecast*


*Questions?


APPENDICES*


DETAILED ASSUMPTIONS*


Total ResourcesNew England Analysis1. Total Capacity: The capacity value is the Net ICR of 32,528 MW for 2011/12 calculated as ICR of 33,439 MW minus Hydro-Qubec Interconnection Capability Credits (HQICCs) value of 911 MWLoad Zone Analysis1. Minimum Capacity Requirement from TSA: This capacity value is the minimum amount of resources that are necessary according to a Transmission Security Analysis (TSA) performed for each Load ZoneAll values are rounded to the nearest 50 MW with the exception of CT & NEMASS/BostonMaine Load Zone uses the MCL

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Total Resources (cont.)Load Zone Generation Amount of generation that is accounted for in each load zone for the purpose of the DR Op Cap analysisMaximum adequacy requirement: Maximum Capacity Limit (MCL)This value was used for Maine in the analysis due to export constraintsMinimum Generation Requirement from TSAAmount of generation that is required in an area in order to secure the system for N-1-1 conditionsWas determined for each zone based on a TSA and consistently with PP-10 criteriaThe Load Zone Results do not represent a simultaneous feasibility between load zones. Each Load Zone analysis is completed independently of the other

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Import CapacityNew England Analysis2. Net of Non-ICAP Purchases & Sales: value assumed is from the 2007 ICAP Transaction Summary monthly average for HQ Phase I/II used as a proxy for import capacity. The monthly average is assumed for all hours.Load Zone Analysis2. Import Capability (N-1) (See Next Slide)All values are rounded to the nearest 50 MW with the exception of CT & NEMASS/Boston

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Import Capability (cont.)Import Capability for Load Zone AnalysisFor zones that closely reflect electric boundaries defined in the Regional System Plan (RSP), RSP import limits were usedConnecticut and Northeast Massachusetts For zones that do not closely reflect electric boundaries defined in the RSP, import limits were determined for the purpose of the DR Op Cap analysis onlyMaine, New-Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode-Island, Southeast Massachusetts and Western and Central MassachusettsThese import limits were strictly based on thermal, N-1 constraintsAll elements at 115kV and above were monitoredAll single-element contingencies and multiple-element contingencies as described in OP-19 Section II.A.2 were consideredThese import limits were determined using SIEMENS/PTI/MUSTMW from remote generation outside the zone were transferred to all generation inside the zoneResulted in one standard number for each zoneNo detailed sensitivities were performed to assess the range of all potential import limitsStudies represent all lines in conditions

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Demand ResourcesNew England & Load Zone Analyses3. Total Demand Resources: Three scenarios are used: Low DR, Intermediate DR and High DR clearing and are developed asLow 100% of Qualified Existing DR capacity for 2011/12Intermediate 100% of Qualified Existing DR capacity and 50% of Qualified New DR capacity for 2011/12High 100% of Qualified Existing DR capacity and 100% of Qualified New DR capacity for 2011/12The Total Demand Resources are the Qualified capacity values which is the Demand Reduction Value * Transmission & Distribution Gross-up (8%) * Reserve Margin Gross-up (16.1%)Real-Time Emergency Generator DR are limited to the 600 MW amount that will be purchased to meet the ICR and Load Zones are prorated to sum to the New England value

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Total Demand Resources with Gross-ups & RTEG limited to 600 MW*


Total Capacity Without Demand ResourcesNew England Analysis 4. Total Capacity Without Demand Resources : Total Capacity + Net of Non-ICAP Purchases & Sales Total Demand Resources [1+2-3]Load Zone Analysis4. Total Capacity Without Demand Resources : Minimum Capacity Requirement from TSA (or MCL for ME) + Import Capability (N-1) Total Demand Resources [1+2-3]

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*Assumed Generation Maintenance & Assumed Unplanned OutagesNew England Analysis 5. Assumed Generation Maintenance: monthly average of the weekly values from the 2008 Annual Maintenance Schedule (AMS)6. Assumed Unplanned Generation Outages: monthly average of the weekly Allowance for Unplanned Outages from the 2008 AMS Operable Capacity AnalysisLoad Zone Analysis5. Assumed Generation Maintenance: prorated New England value based on the Capacity Requirement from TSA (or ME MCL)/New England Qualified Capacity6. Assumed Unplanned Generation Outages: prorated New England value based on Capacity Requirement from TSA (or ME MCL)/New England Qualified Capacity


Hourly Forecasted 50-50 Peak LoadNew England & Load Zone Analyses 8. Forecasted 50-50 Peak Load: (Monthly peak shown in table)The summer & winter peak loads are from the 2008 CELT 50-50 Forecast for 2011/2012 An hourly profile is produced based on the 2002 load shapes for New England and for each of the Load Zones2002 was chosen because the summer period had several days in the range of the summer peak (represents typical summer weather)Resulting 2011/12 monthly peaks may be different than the 2008 CELT forecast of monthly peaks because the they were developed using the 2002 load shape

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*New England & Load Zone Analysis 7. Gen Resources Available to Meet Load & OR = Total Capacity Without Demand Resources Assumed Generation Maintenance Assumed Unplanned Generation Outages [4-5-6]

Generating Resources Available to Meet Load & OR


Hourly Forecasted 90-10 Peak Load for August 2011New England & Load Zone Analyses 8. Forecasted 90-10 Peak Load: (Monthly peak shown in table)The summer 2008 CELT 90-10 Load Forecast for August 2011 was used to create an hourly load profile and a 90-10 Operable Capacity analysis was performed with all other assumptions remaining the same

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Operating Reserve RequirementNew England Analysis9. Operating Reserve Requirement: assumed to be 1 times the largest contingency and times the second largest contingency. The value is assumed to be 2000 MW for this analysisLoad Zone Analysis9. Operating Reserve Requirement: assumed to be the largest contingency in the Load ZoneConsistent with the Transmission Security Analysis assumptions

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Passive ResourcesNew England & Load Zone Analyses10. Passive Demand Resources: These energy efficiency type of resources are assumed as already in-service and therefore subtracted from the Load Forecast for each hourA monthly ratio was developed by the ISO Demand Resource group which assumes a lower reduction value for Passive Resources in shoulder monthsEquals DRV of Passive DR * T&D Gross-up11. Peak Load & OR Passive DR: = Forecasted Peak Load + Operating Reserves Passive DR [8+9-10]

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Surplus/Deficiency Before Calling Active DRNew England & Load Zone Analyses12. Surplus/Deficiency Before Calling DR: assumed to be the amount of MW need before calling Active DR and/or OP 4 (if needed)Calculated from Gen Resources Available to Meet Load & OR (Line 7) Peak Load + OR Passive Resources (Line 11)Negative value shows need for Active Demand Resources

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Description of DR Op Cap ResultsAll MW of DR is the DRV with the 8% T&D Gross-up13. Maximum MW of Non-RTEG Active DR Available: MW of Critical Peak and Real-Time DR available for each scenario14. Maximum MW of Non-RTEG Active DR Needed: MW of Critical Peak and Real-Time DR that would be called in any month with a need for DR as show in line 1215. Maximum MW of RTEG Active DR Available: MW of RTEG available for each DR scenario16. Maximum MW of RTEG Active DR Needed: MW of RTEG that would be required once the entire supply of non-RTEG is called in any hour with a need for DR as show in line 12 (not limited to 600 MW)17. Additional MW of OP 4: remaining deficiency, if any, once all Active DR have been called18. Average MW Amount of DR Need: monthly average of any hours when DR is needed

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Description of DR Op Cap Results (cont.)19. # of Hours Load + OR Passive DR above Available Resources: Sum of the number of hours each month when at least 1 MW of DR would be needed20. Corresponding # of Days: Sum of the days for each month when at least 1 hour of DR is needed21. Maximum # of Consecutive Days: Maximum number of consecutive days when DR would be needed per month

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Description of DR Op Cap Results (cont.)22. Number of Calls per MW of Non-RTEG Active DR: Calculated as the peak of each days DR need divided by the total MW of non-RTEG Active DR. For example, if there is 1000 MW of DR need and 500 MW of available non-RTEG Active DR, then on that day, the non-RTEG Active DR would be called 1.0 times23. Number of Calls per MW of RTEG: Once all MW of non-RTEG Active DR is called, if there is still any remaining need, this value is calculated as the peak hour of remaining need divided by the total MW of RTEG

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DETAILED RESULTS*


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New England Monthly Results Low DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


New England Monthly Results High DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


New England 90-10 Load Forecast for August 2011Low, Inter, & High DR Scenarios*


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CT Monthly Results Low DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


CT Monthly Results High DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


CT 90-10 Load Forecast for August 2011Low, Inter, & High DR Scenarios

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ME Monthly Results Low DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


ME Monthly Results High DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


ME 90-10 Load Forecast for August 2011Low, Inter, & High DR Scenarios*


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NH Monthly Results Low DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


NH Monthly Results High DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


NH 90-10 Load Forecast for August 2011Low, Inter, & High DR Scenarios*


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WCMASS Monthly Results Low DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


WCMASS Monthly Results High DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


WCMASS 90-10 Load Forecast for August 2011Low, Inter, & High DR Scenarios*


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VT Monthly Results Low DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


VT Monthly Results High DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


VT 90-10 Load Forecast for August 2011Low, Inter, & High DR Scenarios*


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SEMA Monthly Results Low DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


SEMA Monthly Results High DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


SEMA 90-10 Load Forecast for August 2011Low, Inter, & High DR Scenarios*


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NEMA/Boston Monthly Results Low DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


NEMA/Boston Monthly Results High DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


NEMASS/Boston 90-10 Load Forecast for August 2011Low, Inter, & High DR Scenarios*


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RI Monthly Results Low DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


RI Monthly Results High DR Scenario with 50-50 Load Forecast*


RI 90-10 Load Forecast for August 2011Low, Inter, & High DR Scenarios*

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