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POP 101
2.1 Kids:A Stable Population
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Everyone needs to be replaced
To maintain a stable population, every
individual needs someone to take their
place when they die
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How are people replaced?
Women can havekids.
Men cant.
!
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Therefore . . .
Each woman needs to have 2 kids, one to
replace her, and one to replace the man.
Since men cant reproduce, the number of
women needs to remain constant for a population
to remain stable.* sigh *
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Measures, in a given population, the average
number of children born per woman over her
lifetime
Indicates if that population is growing or
shrinking
The Total Fertility Rate
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Slightly more boys tend to be born than girls,
therefore it takes slightly more than 2 kids per
woman to ensure that enough girls are born to
replace their mothers.
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TFR 2.1
Assuming no child mortality or disaster, a total
fertility rate of 2.1 will be enough to keep a
population stable
TFR 2.1 children/woman
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. . . At least, in a perfect world.
War, famine, disease, and child mortality mean
that more children need to be born in some
places, to give a better chance of some
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Developing world TFR 3.3
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Not all women have children . . .
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. . . But we still need balance.
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Which means some women
need toh
ave more kids
Since every woman needs to have 2 kids tomaintain a stable population, if 3 women donthave any, then one woman needs to have 8!
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If they dont . . .
A sub-replacement TFR means thatsucceeding generations will shrinkexponentially
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. . . Society fails.
Played out over time, there will be fewer and feweryoung workers to support the increasing number of
retiring workers.
Leading to economic collapse and societal
breakdown
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Kuwait 2.76
Israel 2.75
Qatar 2.45
United Arab Emirates 2.42
New Zealand 2.1
United States 2.05
France 1.98
Brunei 1.91
Iceland 1.9
Ireland 1.85
Australia 1.78
Norway 1.78
Luxembourg 1.78
Germany 1.41
Austria 1.39
Greece 1.37
Andorra 1.33
Italy 1.31
Spain 1.31
Slovenia 1.28
Czech Republic 1.24
Japan 1.21
Korea, South 1.21
Singapore 1.09
Hong Kong 1.02
Denmark 1.74
Finland 1.73
Barbados 1.68
Sweden 1.67
Netherlands 1.66
United Kingdom 1.66
Belgium 1.65
Canada 1.58
Liechtenstein 1.52
Malta 1.51
Portugal 1.49
Cyprus 1.45
Switzerland 1.45
Its already happening.
Only 5 of the worlds 38 developed countrieshave a TFR at or above replacement.
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The Future is bleak.
These societies are facing a veryreal danger: extinction.
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References
CIA World Factbook
Read it online: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-
factbook/index.html
U.NHuman Development Report 2009 (page 213)Read it online: http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2009_EN_Complete.pdf
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