Outlook on the (potential) Future of the German Games Industry | Ralf C. Adam

Where do we go from here?Outlook on the (potential) Future

of the German Games Industry

Ralf C. Adam

Virgin Lands GmbH

Introduction

• Ralf C. Adam

•Managing Director - Virgin Lands 3D Graphics & Animation

• >29 years old

• One admiable wife, two cute daughters, one crazy dog

• >20 years in the Games Industry

• Contributed to >60 games

• Tutor at Games Academy in Berlin & Frankfurt

• Hobbys: Movies, Games, Gadgets, Soccer, Karaoke

About myself

Now, what‘s the Status Quo?German studio and publisher

landscape in 2013

• One big traditional publisher

• Handful of mid-sized publishers

• Two AAA studios

• Approx. less than ten big(ger) independent

game developers

• Handful of big browser games studios (going mobile)

• Handful of big(ger) mobile studios

• Growing number of >10 people indie developers

German Companies in 2013

So where do we go from here?Ten predictions (that will most likely

prove to be total nonsense ;-))

The rise of the The rise of the The rise of the The rise of the

Browser Games Browser Games Browser Games Browser Games

Genre has come Genre has come Genre has come Genre has come

to an endto an endto an endto an end

The Hall of

Prophecy

Prophecy #1

• Not “Browser Games” as a a platform, but…

• Asynchronous Gameplay

•Multiple logins every day for a couple of minutes

• Slow game progress

• Hardcore community

• Browser as a platform to access games will

continue to exist but with other type of games

Definition of „Browser Games Genre“

A brief history of the Browser Games Genre

GalaxyWars

2001

OGame

2002

Imperion

2012

Die Stämme

2003

Travian

2004

Ikariam

2008

Forge of Empires

2012

MonstersGame

2005

BiteFight

2006

Gladiatus

2007

Shakes&Fidget

2010

Recently shut down Browser Games

• The genre is saturated

• The genre has “cloned” itself to death

• The players of this genre have moved to mobile

• The “WoW syndrome”: you play a MMO

you like for years and don’t wanna switch

• User acquisition has become ridiculously

expensive

• You can’t grow your market nor audience

through cross-selling (ask Zynga)

All things must come to an end…

There won't be a There won't be a There won't be a There won't be a

new big "new big "new big "new big "WoWWoWWoWWoW" " " "

any time soonany time soonany time soonany time soon

The Hall of

Prophecy

Prophecy #2

• Dev is too expensive – even for the biggest publisher

•Who is willing to finance another potential +$200 Mio

grave at the moment? EA? Ubisoft? Take 2?

•Which of the ones right now in dev really has the

potential to steal the crown?

• Similarity to the Browser Games Genre: no innovation,

only clones

•Why switch to another game after 9 years WoW?

•More likely: “smaller” MMO’s for niches

Wait a sec – no more MMO‘s?

Publishers will Publishers will Publishers will Publishers will

continue to continue to continue to continue to

vanish and lose vanish and lose vanish and lose vanish and lose

their meaningtheir meaningtheir meaningtheir meaning

The Hall of

Prophecy

Prophecy #3

“We recognised that we are stan-

ding on a burning platform. It's an

oil rig in the middle of the sea,

and it's exploding. You can stay or

you can hold our noses and jump. At least

that way, you have a shot.”

Peter Moore, COO - EA

•Well known problem in Germany for many years

• There’s never been a big publisher for more than

a decade here

• Different to France (Ubi, Infogrames) or UK

• Only one big left right now: Koch/Deepsilver

• But even the big ones are struggling these days

• Reasons: Digital Distribution, Steam, Mobile, F2P,

Browser Games, Big Budget failures…

Where have all my publishers gone?

There will be less There will be less There will be less There will be less

big budget AAA big budget AAA big budget AAA big budget AAA

blockbuster titles blockbuster titles blockbuster titles blockbuster titles

in the futurein the futurein the futurein the future

Prophecy #4

The Hall of

Prophecy

• Fewer and fewer big publishers (not only in Germany)

• The remaining ones are highly risk-averse

• One $200 Mio failure can mean the end

• Each publisher finances less AAA devs

• And if they do: sequel + internal team

• As an independent AAA dev studio: where do you go?

• Overall: Similar situation as in the movie industry

• But will we see Mid-Budget games return?

Less publishers, less risk = less titles

“There’s eventually going to be an

implosion, or a big meltdown…

where three or four or maybe even

a half-dozen mega-budget movies

are going to go crashing into the ground, and

that’s going to change the paradigm.”

Steven Spielberg

The market The market The market The market

will get even more will get even more will get even more will get even more

fracturedfracturedfracturedfractured over the over the over the over the

next yearsnext yearsnext yearsnext years

The Hall of

Prophecy

Prophecy #5

Where do you want to go today?

• Cross-Platform is overrated

• It wasn‘t born by Game Design but by Publisher needs

•We will see different types of games on different platforms

• Do I really want to play „Angry Birds“ on my XBox,

PC or Oculus Rift?

• Is „Call of Duty“ really the right match for my iPhone?

• Do I really want to play just one game and access it

with all my different devices all time time?

• Isn‘t that mono-directional way of thinking kind of

„Old School“?

Different platforms = different types of Games

The time of The time of The time of The time of

the clone wars the clone wars the clone wars the clone wars

will be overwill be overwill be overwill be over

soonsoonsoonsoon

The Hall of

Prophecy

Prophecy #6

How many farms can you build?

• Like stated before: the BG genre has already cloned

itself to death

• As long as new MMO’s try to copy WoW they will

continue to fail

• (Revenue) Metrics driven (Game) Design is broken

•Minecraft and the “Indie revolution” were just

the beginning

•We will see a new Golden Age of Game Design

A new dawn of innovative game ideas

We will see We will see We will see We will see

new stars risenew stars risenew stars risenew stars rise

(and maybe fall) (and maybe fall) (and maybe fall) (and maybe fall)

in a year time in a year time in a year time in a year time

cyclecyclecyclecycle

The Hall of

Prophecy

Prophecy #7

Need proof?

Gemany‘s next Idol?

“Even as a developer, you invent

something great – Call of Duty – you

want to make Call of Duty five, six,

and seven, you don't want to have to

put lightning in a bottle twice, three times.”

Ed Fries

The next big The next big The next big The next big

bang will be born bang will be born bang will be born bang will be born

in a niche in a niche in a niche in a niche

(again…)(again…)(again…)(again…)

The Hall of

Prophecy

Prophecy #8

Never listen to the „Experts“…

“The RPG genre is dead”Publisher Wisdom 1998



“Shooters don’t work on console!”Publisher Wisdom 2002



“MMO is a small niche market!”Publisher Wisdom 2004



“The PC genre is dead!”Publisher Wisdom 2006



“You can’t make money with F2P!”Publisher Wisdom 2008



“Mobile is a niche – Facebook is the future!”Publisher Wisdom 2009



“Sandbox games don’t do well!”Publisher Wisdom 2011



“There’s no market for episodic games!”Publisher Wisdom 2012


F2P is neither F2P is neither F2P is neither F2P is neither

dead, nor will it dead, nor will it dead, nor will it dead, nor will it

become the only become the only become the only become the only

business modelbusiness modelbusiness modelbusiness model

The Hall of

Prophecy

Prophecy #9

How critics see F2P

Plants vs. Zombies 2 = F2P

• Not all Genres do well with F2P

• Acceptance problems

• Hard for parents to control

• People are still willing to pay >$20 (see Kickstarter)

• F2P/Freemium/Microtransaction Models are

one part of the future…

• …but so are all other models

•Maybe we will even see new models such as

Game Channels with monthly subscription fees

Diversity or uniformity?

“But we know that also the free-

to-play mechanics have a certain

interruptive quality which can

spoil the play a little bit. So there

are things on the ends of the spectrum

where it's very obvious. Skyrim should not be

free-to-play. We get that. It would really ruin

it if we don't get that.”

Jesse Schell

The hour of The hour of The hour of The hour of

episodic gaming episodic gaming episodic gaming episodic gaming

may have finally may have finally may have finally may have finally

comecomecomecome

The Hall of

Prophecy

Prophecy #10

That was just the beginning

“Cable television is much more

adventurous than film nowadays.

I think eventually the Lincolns will

go away and they are going to be

on television”

George Lucas

TV Shows

Learning from TV – seriously?

• Less risky

• High quality

• Better re-use of assets

• Can be developed further and faster with feedback

from the audience/the customer

• Perfect for storytelling

• Perfect for casual 10 – 15 minutes a day

•Maybe even game channels one day?

So what the heck should I do?

Be different!

• Have a clear strategy

• Focus: You can do anything – but you can‘t do everything

• Not the time to found a AAA studio in Germany right now

(unless you have infinte amount of money)

• Not the time to found a publisher either

• Find your niche

• Find your business model

• Find your distribution channel

• Be innovative

• And may the force be with you – always!

RALF C. ADAMManaging Director

Virgin Lands GmbH

[email protected]

Outlook on the (potential) Future of the German Games Industry | Ralf C. Adam

Entertainment & Humor