Outline of WTO Conference Paper Title of Paper and Authors Introduction Methods and Data A. Shift-Share Model B. Components of the Shift-Share Model C.

Outline of WTO Conference Paper

Title of Paper and AuthorsIntroductionMethods and Data

A. Shift-Share Model B. Components of the Shift-Share

Model C. Data Source

Outline of WTO Conference Paper

Results A. Structural and Ownership Changes B. Shipbuilding-Tonnage on Order Changes C. Tonnage of Major Open Registry

Fleets Changes

Summary and Conclusions

Title of Paper and Authors

An Analysis of the Structural and Ownership Changes in the World

Maritime FleetBy

Albert J. Allen, Joselito K. Estrada, and Saleem Shaik

Introduction

The world maritime fleet is changing to reflect the changes in worldwide economic activitiesGlobalization has become the new phrase of the moment, but true globalization means that countries must have genuine international cooperation

Introduction

Creating partnerships and examining methods to determine new ways to work with other nations throughout the world represents the best way to thrive in the globalThe world maritime fleet can be used as an indicator of international cooperation among countries

IntroductionIn 2002, the world maritime fleet accounted for the largest share of the value (38.4%) and weight (77.7%) of the U.S. international merchandise tradeThe size of these values not only reflects the importance of water transportation to the U.S. competitive position in international trade but also the international interdependence or international cooperation of this country with other nations on worldwide basis

Supply/Demand Influences in Shipping Market

Demand:The World EconomySeaborne Commodity TradesAverage HaulTransport CostsPolitical Events

Supply/Demand Influences

Supply:World FleetShipbuilding OutputScrapping and LossesFleet Performance: Mean Operating Speed; Deadweight utilization; Loaded Days at Sea

Operating Environment

ObjectiveThe general purpose of this paper is to analyze the supply side of the world maritime fleet between 1997 and 2003 to measure global changes in the world maritime fleet. Specific objectives are to:Show changes in the structure and ownership, shipbuilding, and country of registrationMeasure the changes in the structure and ownership, shipbuilding and country of registration using the shift-share model

Methods and DataA. Esteban-Marquillas Shift-Share ModelThe shift-share model is used for

accomplishing the main focus of this analysisThe shift-share analysis is a method of separating a change into its components; in our case in the world’s maritime fleet This is done to identify and to better understand the components of the change; i.e. to determine each component’s “share of the shift”

Methods and Data

B. Components of the Esteban- Marquillas Shift-Share

Model:World Growth EffectIndustry Mix EffectCompetitive EffectAllocation Effect

Methods and Data

World Growth Effect:Is the amount that a country’s (or region’s) maritime fleet would have increased (or decreased) had it grown at the same rate as the world maritime fleet didIndustry Mix Effect:Is the amount of change attributable to differences in the initial industry makeup of the country or region relative to the world

Methods and Data

A positive (negative) industry mix effect indicates that a country’s (region’s) fleet of ships was initially relatively more concentrated in the types of ships whose fleet expanded faster (slower) than the overall world maritime fleet average

Methods and Data

Competitive Effect: The competitive effect measures a country’s economic changes not attributable to the world fleet growth or the industry mix effectsShows how a country deviates from what would be expected if a country’s ship growth was due solely to the world expansion of the fleet of ships and the country’s industry makeup of ships

Methods and Data

Competitive Effect: In general the CE indicates the quantitative difference between a country’s fleet of ships and those of the world caused by the difference in the rate of that country’s ships compared with that of the world

Methods and Data

Allocation Effect: Is interpreted as a measure of country’s degree of specialization in those ships in which it enjoys competitive advantageA positive value means that the country or region is specialized in the ships in which it has a competitive advantage, and not in the ships in which it has a competitive disadvantage

Table 1. Allocation effect Interpretations

Sign of the Allocation Effect

Sign of the Competitive Effect

Interpretations

+ + Specialized, competitive advantage

_ _ Specialized, competitive disadvantage

+ _ Not Specialized, competitive disadvantage

_ _ Not specialized, competitive advantage

Shift-Share Model

Equation 1: CTij = WGij + IMij + CEij + AEij

Equation 2: WGij = Tij1997 * ΔN

Equation 3: IMij = Tij1997 * ( ΔNi - ΔN )

Shift-Share Model

Equation 4: CEij = [ Tj1997 * ( Ni

1997/ N1997 )] * ( ΔTij -

ΔNi )

Equation 5: AEij = { Tij1997 - [ Tj

1997 * ( Ni 1997/ N1997 )]} *

( ΔTij - ΔNi )

Shift-Share Model

where:

CTij change in deadweight tonnage in vessel category i in

country/region j;

WGij World Growth Effect of vessel category i in

country/region j;

IMij Industry Mix Effect of vessel category i in

country/region j;

Shift-Share Model

where:

CEij Competitive Effect of vessel category i in

country/region j;

AEij Allocation Effect of vessel category i in

country/region j;

Shift-Share ModelTij

1997 1997 vessel category i deadweight tonnage in country/region j;

Tj1997 1997 deadweight tonnage for all vessel categories in

country/region j;

ΔPij change in deadweight tonnage in vessel category i in country/region j from 1997 to 2003; ΔN change in international maritime fleet’s overall deadweight tonnage from 1997 to 2003;

Shift-Share ModelNi

1997 1997 international maritime fleet’s deadweight tonnage in vessel category i; N1997 1997 international maritime fleet’s overall deadweight tonnage; i vessel categories (oil tankers, bulk carriers, general cargo carriers, containerships, others); and, j Countries (Major Open Registry Nations: Panama, Liberia, Cyprus, Malta, Bahamas, Bermuda) and Regions (developed market economy countries; major open registry countries; developing countries; countries of Central and Eastern Europe; and, socialist countries in Asia)

Results

Structure and Ownership Changes

Shipbuilding-Tonnage on Order Changes

Tonnage of Major Open Registry Fleets Changes

Results

Structure and Ownership Changes

Table 2. Structure and Ownership of the Merchant Fleet by Main Country Groups, 1997 and 2003

Fleet, 1997

World (Million DWT)

DMEC(Million DWT)

MORC (Million DWT)

DC (Million DWT)

CCEE (Million DWT)

SCA (Million DWT)

Total 775.9 202.6 361.0 149.8 24.4 26.0

Oil tankers

272.0 83.9 136.5 42.4 3.9 3.3

Bulk Carriers

281.0 52.9 145.9 57.8 7.8 11.3

General Cargo Carriers

103.9 19.8 37.5 27.9 8.8 8.3

Container-ships

56.1 20.7 20.7 9.9 0.4 1.7

Other 62.9 25.3 20.4 11.8 3.5 1.4


Fleet, 2003

World (Million DWT)

DMEC(Million DWT)

MORC (Million DWT)

DC (Million DWT)

CCEE (Million DWT)

SCA (Million DWT)

Total 844.2 217.1 398.4 171.3 16.0 28.3

Oil tankers

304.4 96.4 147.8 52.7 3.0 4.6

Bulk Carriers

300.1 50.6 163.8 62.3 3.4 12.1


97.2 19.8 33.1 28.3 6.5 8.2

Container-ships

82.8 20.0 36.8 14.9 0.4 2.2

Other 59.7 22.3 16.9 13.1 2.7 1.2


Chg 97-03 World (Million DWT)

DMEC(Million DWT)

MORC (Million DWT)

DC (Million DWT)

CCEE (Million DWT)

SCA (Million DWT)

Total 68.3 14.5 37.4 21.5 -8.4 2.3

Oil tankers

32.4 12.5 11.3 10.3 -0.9 1.3

Bulk Carriers

19.1 -2.3 17.9 4.5 -4.4 0.8


-6.7 0.0 -4.4 0.4 -2.3 -0.1

Container-ships

26.7 7.3 16.1 5.0 0.0 0.5

Other -3.2 -3.0 -3.5 1.3 -0.8 -0.2


% Chg 97-03

World DMEC MORC DC CCEE SCA

Total 8.8 7.2 10.4 14.4 -34.4 8.8

Oil tankers

11.9 14.9 8.3 24.3 -23.1 39.4

Bulk Carriers

6.8 -4.3 12.3 7.8 -56.4 7.1


-6.4 0.0 -11.7 1.4 -26.1 -1.2

Container-ships

47.6 35.3 77.8 50.5 0.0 29.4

Other -5.1 -11.9 -17.2 11.0 -22.9 -14.3

Table 3. World Growth Effect: Changes in Structure and Ownership of the World Maritime Fleet by country groups and by type of ships between 1997 and 2003

Type of Ships

DMEC (Million DWT)

MORC (Million DWT)

DC (Million DWT)

CCEE (Million DWT)

SCA (Million DWT)

Total (Million DWT)

Oil Tankers

7.4 12.0 3.7 0.3 0.3 23.7

Bulk Carriers

4.7 12.8 5.1 0.7 1.0 24.3


1.7 3.3 2.5 0.8 0.7 9

Containerships

1.8 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.1 4.6

Other Ships

2.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 5.4

Total 17.8 31.7 13.2 2.1 2.2 67

Table 4. Industry Mix Effect: Changes in Structure and Ownership of the World Maritime Fleet by country groups and by type of ships between 1997 and 2003

Type of Ships

DMEC (Million DWT)

MORC (Million DWT)

DC (Million DWT)

CCEE (Million DWT)

SCA (Million DWT)

Total (Million DWT)

Oil Tankers

2.6 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.1 8.3

Bulk Carriers

-1.1 -2.9 -1.2 -0.2 -0.2 -5.6


-3.0 -5.7 -4.3 -1.3 -1.3 -15.6

Containerships

8.0 8.0 3.8 0.2 0.7 20.7

Other Ships

-3.5 -2.8 -1.6 -0.2 -0.2 -8.3

Total 3.0 0.8 -2.0 -1.4 -0.9 -0.5

Table 5. Competitive Effect: Changes in Structure and Ownership of the World Maritime Fleet by country groups and by type of ships between 1997 and 2003

Type of Ships

DMEC (Million DWT)

MORC (Million DWT)

DC (Million DWT)

CCEE (Million DWT)

SCA (Million DWT)

Total (Million DWT)

Oil Tankers

2.1 -4.6 6.5 -3.0 2.5 3.5

Bulk Carriers

-8.2 2.7 0.2 -0.9 0.0 -6.2


1.7 -2.6 1.6 -0.6 0.2 0.3

Containerships

-1.8 7.9 0.3 -0.8 -0.3 5.3

Other Ships

-1.1 -3.5 2.0 -0.4 -0.2 -3.2

Total -7.3 -0.1 10.6 -5.7 2.2 -0.3

Table 6. Allocation Effect: Changes in Structure and Ownership of the World Maritime Fleet by country groups and by type of ships between 1997 and 2003

Type of Ships

DMEC (Million DWT)

MORC (Million DWT)

DC (Million DWT)

CCEE (Million DWT)

SCA (Million DWT)

Total (Million DWT)

Oil Tankers

0.4 -0.4 -1.3 1.6 -1.6 -1.3

Bulk Carriers

2.3 5.3 0.4 -4.0 0.0 4.0


-0.5 0.6 0.6 -1.1 0.3 -0.1

Containerships

-0.7 -1.6 0.0 0.6 0.0 -1.7

Other Ships

-0.6 1.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.2

Total 0.9 5.0 -0.4 -3.2 -1.2 1.1

Results

Shipbuilding-Tonnage on Order Changes

Table 7. Shipbuilding-Tonnage on Order 1997 and 2003

Fleet, 1997

World (000 DWT)

DMEC(000 DWT)

MORC (000 DWT)

DC (000 DWT)

CCEE (000 DWT)

SCA (000 DWT)

Total 81,227 21,969 43,581 9,499 1,299 1,461

Oil tankers

36,649 9,642 20,334 4,364 350 12

Bulk Carriers

22,466 4,062 14,153 2,176 407 1,064


4,935 1,894 1,808 570 289 262

Container-ships

9,266 3,439 3,918 1,607 69 117

Other 7,911 2,932 3,368 782 184 6


Fleet, 2003

World (000 DWT)

DMEC(000 DWT)

MORC (000 DWT)

DC (000 DWT)

CCEE (000 DWT)

SCA (000 DWT)

Total 118,755 40,043 60,721 13,909 398 3,684

Oil tankers

60,716 22,445 28,936 7,683 97 1,555

Bulk Carriers

30,522 7,163 20,032 2,588 41 698


4,408 1,800 1,547 583 223 254

Container-ships

15,266 4,535 8,009 1,905 - 817

Other 7,843 4,100 2,197 1,150 37 360


Chg 97-03 World (000 DWT)

DMEC(000 DWT)

MORC (000 DWT)

DC (000 DWT)

CCEE (000 DWT)

SCA (000 DWT)

Total 37,528 18,074 17,140 4,410 -901 2,223

Oil tankers

24,067 12,803 8,602 3,319 -253 1,543

Bulk Carriers

8,056 3,101 5,879 412 -366 -366


-527 -94 -261 13 -66 -8

Container-ships

6,000 1,096 4,091 298 -69 700

Other -68 1,168 -1,171 368 -147 354


% Chg 97-03

World DMEC MORC DC CCEE SCA

Total 46.2 82.3 39.3 46.4 -69.4 152.2

Oil tankers

65.7 132.8 42.3 76.1 -72.3 12,858.3

Bulk Carriers

35.9 76.3 41.5 18.9 -89.9 -34.4


-10.7 -5.0 -14.4 2.3 -22.8 -3.1

Container-ships

64.8 31.9 104.4 18.5 -100.0 598.3

Other 0.9 39.8 -34.8 47.1 -79.9 5,900.0

Table 8. World Growth Effect: Changes in Shipbuilding-Tonnage on Order of the World Maritime Fleet by country groups and by type of ships between 1997 and 2003

Type of Ships

DMEC (000 DWT)

MORC (000 DWT)

DC (000 DWT)

CCEE (000 DWT)

SCA (000 DWT)

Total (000 DWT)

Oil Tankers

4,454.7 9,934.6 2,016.2 161.7 5.5 16,572.7

Bulk Carriers

1,876.7 6,538.9 1,005.3 188.0 491.6 10,100.5


875.1 835.3 263.3 133.5 121.0 1,228.2

Containerships

1,588.9 1,810.2 742.5 31.9 54.1 4,227.6

Other Ships

1,354.6 1,556.1 361.3 85.0 2.8 3,359.8

Total 10,150.0

20,675.1

4,388.6 600.1 675.0 36,488.8

Table 9. Industry Mix Effect: Changes in Shipbuilding-Tonnage on Order of the World Maritime Fleet by country groups and by type of ships between 1997 and 2003

Type of Ships

DMEC (000 DWT)

MORC (000 DWT)

DC (000 DWT)

CCEE (000 DWT)

SCA (000 DWT)

Total (000 DWT)

Oil Tankers

1,877.1 3,958.5 849.6 68.1 2.3 6,755.6

Bulk Carriers

-420.1 -1,463.8

-225.1 -42.1 -110.0 -2,261.1


-1,077.3

-1,028.4

-324.2 -164.4 -149.0 -2,743.3

Containerships

638.0 726.8 298.1 12.8 21.7 1,697.4

Other Ships

-1,279.8

-1,585.0

-368.0 -86.6 -2.8 -3,322.2

Total -262.1 608.1 230.4 -212.2 -237.8 126.4

Table 10. Competitive Effect: Changes in Shipbuilding-Tonnage on Order of the World Maritime Fleet by country groups and by type of ships between 1997 and 2003

Type of Ships

DMEC (000 DWT)

MORC (000 DWT)

DC (000 DWT)

CCEE (000 DWT)

SCA (000 DWT)

Total (000 DWT)

Oil Tankers

6,652.6 -4,594.4

445.1 -808.6 84,328.2

86,022.9

Bulk Carriers

2,459.9 319.5 -204.3 -121.8 -2.3 2,451.0


76.3 -99.5 74.8 -9.6 6.8 48.8

Containerships

-824.1 1,971.8 -500.7 -244.1 889.2 1,292.1

Other Ships

870.7 -1,439.3

443.3 -100.0 8,396.5 8,171.2

Total 9,235.4 -3,841.9

258.2 -1,284.1

93,618.4

97,986.0

Table 11. Allocation Effect: Changes in Shipbuilding-Tonnage on Order of the World Maritime Fleet by country groups and by type of ships between 1997 and 2003

Type of Ships

DMEC (000 DWT)

MORC (000 DWT)

DC (000 DWT)

CCEE (000 DWT)

SCA (000 DWT)

Total (000 DWT)

Oil Tankers

-181.4 -156.7 8.1 325.7 -82,793.1

-82,797.4

Bulk Carriers

-815.4 484.5 -164.0 -390.2 -745.2 -1,530.3


32.0 31.6 -0.9 -25.5 13.2 50.4

Containerships

-306.8 -417.9 -241.9 130.5 -265.0 -1,101.1

Other Ships

322.5 297.2 -68.6 -45.4 -8,042.4

-7,536.7

Total -949.1 238.7 -467.3 -4.9 -91,832.5

-93,015.1

Results

Tonnage of Major Open Registry Fleets Changes

Table 12. Changes in Tonnage of Major Open Registry Fleets between 1997 and 2003

Registry, 1997

Total (000 DWT)

Oil Tankers (000 DWT)

Bulk Carriers (000 DWT)

General Cargo Carriers (000 DWT)

Container-ships (000 DWT)

Other Ships (000 DWT)

Panama 126,161 37,152 60,372 11,320 11.272 6,045

Liberia 90,916 48,088 28,067 3,703 4,001 7,057

Cyprus 32,750 6,390 17,827 5,747 1,969 817

Malta 33,714 15,598 12,795 4,059 625 637

Bahamas 36,267 19,624 7,203 6,503 912 2,025

Bermuda 7,384 4,142 1,943 226 548 525

Total 327,192 130,994 128,207 31,558 19,327 17,106


Registry, 2003

Total (000 DWT)






Panama 168,508 51,667 81,208 11,313 16,493 7,827

Liberia 68,413 34,276 15,762 3,678 9,514 5,183

Cyprus 32,097 6,080 19,427 3,486 2,739 365

Malta 36,649 15,613 17,183 3,061 539 253

Bahamas 44,123 24,778 8,336 6,051 2,130 2,828

Bermuda 6,293 1,864 3,598 205 401 225

Total 356,083 134,278 145,514 27,794 31,816 16,681


Registry, Chg 97-03

Total (000 DWT)






Panama 42,347 14,515 20,836 -7 5,221 1,782

Liberia -22,503 -13,812 -12,305 -25 5,513 -1,874

Cyprus -653 -310 1,600 -2,261 770 -452

Malta 2,935 15 4,388 -998 -86 -384

Bahamas 7,856 5,154 1,133 -452 1,218 803

Bermuda -1,091 -2,278 1,655 -21 -147 -300

Total 28,891 3,284 17,307 -3,764 12,489 -425


Registry, % Chg 97-03

Total Oil Tankers

Bulk Carriers


Container-ships

Other Ships

Panama 33.6 39.1 34.5 -0.1 46.3 29.5

Liberia -24.8 -28.7 -43.8 -0.7 137.8 -26.6

Cyprus -2.0 -4.9 9.0 -39.3 39.1 -55.3

Malta 8.7 0.1 34.3 -24.6 13.8 -60.3

Bahamas 21.7 26.3 15.7 -7.0 133.6 39.7

Bermuda -14.8 -55.0 85.2 -9.3 -26.8 -57.1

Total 8.8 2.5 13.5 -11.9 64.6 -2.5

Table 13. World Growth Effect: Changes in Tonnage of Major Open Registry Fleets between 1997 and 2003

Country Oil Tankers (000 DWT)



Containerships (000 DWT)


Total (000 DWT)

Panama 3,281 5,331 1,000 995 534 11,141

Liberia 4,246 2,478 327 353 623 8,027

Cyprus 564 1,574 507 174 72 2,891

Malta 1,377 1,130 358 55 56 2,976

Bahamas 1,733 636 574 81 179 3,203

Bermuda 365 172 20 48 46 651

Total 11,566 11,321 2,786 1,706 1,510 28,889

Table 14. Industry Mix Effect: Changes in Tonnage of Major Open Registry Fleets between 1997 and 2003






Total (000 DWT)

Panama -2,349 2,819 -2,350 6,289 -684 3,725

Liberia -3,041 1,311 -769 2,232 -798 -1,065

Cyprus -404 832 -1,193 1,098 -92 241

Malta -986 597 -843 349 -72 -955

Bahamas -1,241 336 -1,350 509 -229 -1,975

Bermuda -262 91 -47 306 -59 29

Total -8,283 5,986 -6,552 10,783 -1.934 0

Table 15. Competitive Effect: Changes in Tonnage of Major Open Registry Fleets between 1997 and 2003






Total (000 DWT)

Panama 18,467 10,388 1,444 -1,364 2,108 31,043

Liberia -11,367 -20,427 987 3,930 -1,144 -28,021

Cyprus -965 -581 -866 -494 -905 -3,811

Malta -325 2,747 -412 -1,561 -1,019 -570

Bahamas 3,449 317 174 1,477 799 6,216

Bermuda -1,700 2,074 19 -399 -211 -217

Total 7,559 -5,482 1,346 1,589 -372 4,640

Table 16. Allocation Effect: Changes in Tonnage of Major Open Registry Fleets between 1997 and 2003






Total (000 DWT)

Panama -4,884 2,298 -101 -699 -176 -3,562

Liberia -3,650 4,334 -570 -1,002 -555 -1,443

Cyprus 495 -226 -710 -9 473 23

Malta -51 -86 -102 1,071 651 1,483

Bahamas 1,213 -156 150 -848 54 413

Bermuda -682 -681 -13 -102 -76 -1,554

Total -7,559 5,483 -1,346 -1,589 371 -4,640


Structure and Ownership:DMEC specialized in competitively advantaged oil tankersMORC and DC specialized in competitively advantaged bulk carriersDC and SCA specialized in competitively advantaged general cargo carriersDC specialized in competitively advantaged containerships


Shipbuilding-Tonnage on Order:DC specialized in competitively advantaged oil tankersMORC specialized in competitively advantaged bulk carriersDMEC and SCA specialized in competitively advantaged general cargo carriersDMEC specialized in competitively advantaged other ships


Tonnage of Major Open Registry Fleets:Bahamas specialized in competitively advantaged oil tankersPanama specialized in competitively advantaged bulk carriersBahamas specialized in competitively advantaged general cargo carriersBahamas specialized in competitively advantaged other ships

Outline of WTO Conference Paper Title of Paper and Authors Introduction Methods and Data A. Shift-Share Model B. Components of the Shift-Share Model C.

Documents

globalthe world maritime

regions maritime fleet

worlds maritime fleet

world maritime fleetby

ownership changes

largest share

order changes

analysisthe shift