Outline How do we define space weather? How do we observe it? What drives it (solar activity and solar phenomena)? Which are the impacts on: the atmosphere.

OutlineOutline

• How do we define space weather?

• How do we observe it?

• What drives it (solar activity and solar phenomena)?

• Which are the impacts on:

the atmosphere and technological sysytems?

• How can we forecast it?

• What service exist?

• Today’s space weather.

The SunThe Sun

Diameter:1 390 000 km(109 x Earth)

Mass:1.99x1030 kg(330 000 x Earth)

Density:Core 151x103 kg/m-3

Average 1.41x103 kg/m-3

The Sun consits of:H (≈ 90%)Helium (≈ 10%)C,N,O ( ≈ 0.1%)

Temperature:Core 15 millionPhotosphere 5800 K Chromosphere 4300-104KCorona 1-30 million K 4 protons --> He + 2 positrons + 2 neutrinos + 2 fotons (26.2 MeV)

When the solar magnetic field emerges thru the solar suface sunspots appearWhen the solar magnetic field emerges thru the solar suface sunspots appear

ChromosphereChromosphere

Prominence

Solar flare The chromosphere in H-alpha

TRACE TRACE

The solar corona seen at solar eclipsesThe solar corona seen at solar eclipses

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The heating of the solar coronaThe heating of the solar corona

Coronal mass ejectionsCoronal mass ejections

CMEs cause the most severe space weather effects

CMEs cause the most severe space weather effects

• Halo CMEs are most geoeffective

• Mass: 5-50 billion tons

• Frequency: 3.5/day (max), 0.2/day (min)

• Speed: 200-2000 km/s

Solar flares and sun quakesSolar flares and sun quakes

The solar windThe solar wind

• Predicted from comet studies in 1940 ties

• Theoretically predicted by Parker 1959

• Measusred in situ 1960

The source of the fast solar wind The source of the fast solar wind

Solar windSolar wind

Typical values

V: 450km/sN: 5particles/cm3

T: 105 K B: 5nT

The solar wind consistsof protons,electrons and3-4% alpha particles

Computation of the coronal magnetic field

Computation of the coronal magnetic field

Daily observations of the solar photospheric magnetic field at WSO are used for computation of the coronal magnetic field according to the ”potential fieldmodel”. ∇ ×B=0,B=−∇ψ

∇ •B=0,∇2ψ =0

ψ (r,θ,φ) =RRr

⎛ ⎝

⎞ ⎠

n+1

(gnmcosmφ+hn

msinmφ)Pnm(θ)

⎡

⎣ ⎢ ⎤

⎦ ⎥ m=0

n

∑n=1

∞

∑

Br =−∂ψ∂r

,Bθ =−1r∂ψ∂θ

,Bφ =−1

rsinθ∂ψ∂φ

Bl =Br sinθcos(φ−φ0)+Bθ cosθcos(φ−φ0)−Bφsin(φ−φ0)

Computed Br at R=2.5RsComputed Br at R=2.5Rs

The heliospheric current sheetThe heliospheric current sheet

Fast continuous solar wind fromcoronal holes

The solar wind The solar wind

Fast halo CME withsolar flares andsolar proton events

Heliospheric current sheet

The solar wind Bz, V, and n determinethe effect of the solar plasma.

Earth’s responseEarth’s response

• Geomagnetic disturbances

• Aurora

• Ionospheric disturbances

• Climate and weather changes

Earth’s magnetosphere and current systems

Geomagnetic stormsGeomagnetic storms

Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere

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Aurora ovalAurora oval

The aurora observed inStockholm

Aurora was observed in Italy 6-7 April and on July 15-16, 2000!

Aurora during severe solar stormsAurora during severe solar storms

Space weather effects on technological systems

Space weather effects on technological systems

Satellite anomaliesSatellite anomalies

Satellite anomalies of July 14-16, 2000 eventSatellite anomalies of July 14-16, 2000 event

The proton event causedproblems for ACE,SOHO, Ørsted, Japanese X-ray satellite,star trackers on boardcommercial satellites.

Proton flux (pfu) > 10 MeV,24000 pfu (July 15, 12.30 UT). Third largest!

Largest 43 000 pfu, (March 24, 1991). Second 40 000 pfu (October 20, 1989).

Solar proton events are dangerous to man in space

Solar proton events are dangerous to man in space

Between Apollo 16 and 17 a proton event occurred, which should have been deadly to the astronautes within10 hours (i.e. above 4000 mSv).

Mars

Radiation risks and aviationRadiation risks and aviation

The radiation exposure is doubled every 2.2 km.

Solar flares can increase the radiation by 20-30 times.

Pilots get cancer more often than average.

New EU law:Pregnant (aircrew) should not be exposed to morethan 1 (1-6) millisievert/year

The intensive solar flare of April 2, 2001, which causedmajor communication problemsalso made ContinentalAirlines to changetheir route betweenHong Kong and New York.

Power systems are effected at times of geomagnetic storms

Power systems are effected at times of geomagnetic storms

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This severe electrojet caused the failure of Quebec’s power system March 13-14, 1989.

One of the generators of OKG’s (Sydkraft’s) nuclear plants was heated due to the geomagnetically induced current in March 13-14 1989.

A transformer damagedin Main USA.

Workshops arranged by usWorkshops arranged by us

Workshops on ”Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics” were held in Lund 1993 and 1997.

Artificial neural networksArtificial neural networks

The basic element of every ANN is an artificial neuron or simply a neuron (which is an abstract model of a biological neuron (nerve cell)).

Download Lund Dst model in Java and Matlab

Download Lund Dst model in Java and Matlab

The ARMA filter is obtained by adding auto-regressive terms to a MA filter.The partial recurrent network (Elman) becomes identical to a linear ARMA filter if it is assigned linear

activations functions.

Our scientific approachOur scientific approach

Real-time test of Dst forecastsReal-time test of Dst forecasts

Test Dst forecastsTest Dst forecasts

ApplicationsApplications

Input parameters Output KBNM method

Reference

Daily sunspot number Daily sunspot number SOM and MLP

Liszka 93;97

Monthly sunspot number Date of solar cycle max and amplitude

MLP and Elman

Macpherson et al., 95, Conway et al, 98

Monthly sunspot number and aa

Date of solar cycle max and amplitude

Elman Ashmall and Moore, 98

Yearly sunspot number Date of solar cycle max and amplitude

MLP Calvo et al., 95

McIntosh sunspot class & MW magn complex.

X class solar flare MLP expert system

Bradshaw et al., 89

Flare location, duration

X-ray and radio flux

Proton events MLP Xue et al., 97

X-ray flux Proton events Neuro- fuzzy system

Gabriel et al., 00

Photospheric magnetic field expansion factor

Solar wind velocity 1-3 days ahead

RBF & PF MHD

Wintoft and Lundstedt 97;99

ApplicationsApplications

Input parameters Output KBNM method

Reference

Solar wind n, V, Bz Relativistic electrons in Earth magnetosphere hour ahead

MLP Wintoft and Lundstedt, 00

Solar wind n,V, Bz, Dst

Relativistic electrons one hour ahead

MLP, MHD, MSFM

Freeman et al., 93

Kp Relativistic electrons day ahead

MLP Stringer and McPherron, 93

Solar wind V from photospheric B

Daily geomagnetic Ap index

MLP Detman et al., 00

Ap index Ap index MLP Thompson, 93

Solar wind n, V, Bz Kp index 3 hours ahead MLP Boberg et al., 00

Solar wind n, V, B,Bz

Dst 1-8 hours ahead MLP, Elman Lundstedt, 91; Wu and Lundstedt, 97

Solar wind n, V, B,Bz

AE 1 hour ahead Elman, MLP Gleisner and Lundstedt,00 ,Gavrishchaka et al.,00, 01

ApplicationsApplications

Input parametrs Output KBNM method References

Solar wind V2Bs, (nV2)1/2, LT, local geomag xe, Yw

Local geomagnetic field X,Y

MLP and RBF Gleisner and Lundstedt 00

Solar wind n,V, Bz None, weak or strong aurora

MLP Lundstedt et al., 00

foF2 foF2 1 hour ahead MLP Wintoft and Lundstedt, 99

AE, local time, seasonal information

foF2 1-24 hours ahead

MLP Wintoft and Cander, 00

foF2, Ap, F10.7 cm 24 hours ahead MLP Wintoft and Cander, 99

Kp Satellite anomalies MLP Wintoft and Lundstedt 00

Solar wind n, V, Bz dBx/dt, GIC Elman, MLP Kronfeldt et al., 01 and Weigel et al.,02

Real-time forecasts and warnings

based on KBN Real-time forecasts and warnings

based on KBN

Solar wind observations with ACE make accurate forecasts 1-3 hours ahead possible.

Solar observations with SOHO make warnings 1-3days ahead possible.

Solar input data

ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service Package

ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service Package

Near and farside solar activity from MDI/SOHO observations

Near and farside solar activity from MDI/SOHO observations

Latest information on arrival of halo CME at L1

Latest information on arrival of halo CME at L1

Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies (SAAPS)

Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies (SAAPS)

Latest information on forecasts of Kp, Dst, AE and GIC

Latest information on forecasts of Kp, Dst, AE and GIC

Our GIC Pilot ProjectAn application at implementation stage

Our GIC Pilot ProjectAn application at implementation stage

Today general forecast service is given by RWCs within ISES

Today general forecast service is given by RWCs within ISES

ISES Director: D. BotelerDeputy Director: H. LundstedtSecr. for World days: H. CoffeySecr. Space Weather: J. KunchesWWW for Satellites: J. King

RWC - SwedenISES

RWC - SwedenISES

The October 14 -November 6 events:It all started with no sunspots

The October 14 -November 6 events:It all started with no sunspots

• No sunspots (R=24)• Aurora observed in Southern Sweden (Gothenburg, Lund)• Media got interested• SOHO/MDI far side images had told me Large ARs were to come

Many radio and newspaper interviews

followed and AR 484 entered

Then came the AR 486, October 28 event

Then came the AR 486, October 28 event

• Even more interviews• Warnings and reports were sent to power industry• Discussions with power operators

Power outage in MalmöPower outage in Malmö

Rz spectraldensity LF20-128 days.Stora ARvanligare.

Power Outage in Southern Sweden, October 30, 2003

The power failure got enormous media attention in Sweden

The power failure got enormous media attention in Sweden

Every TV, radio stationand newspaperhad something

And then ….X28 solar flare on November 4!!

And then ….X28 solar flare on November 4!!

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Active Regions 484/486/488 one rotation later

Active Regions 484/486/488 one rotation later

Today’s Space WeatherToday’s Space Weather

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Where to learn more?www.lund.irf.se

Where to learn more?www.lund.irf.se

END

Part 2

Acknowledgements.I am grateful to the following providers of images and animations;ESA/NASA SOHO teams.