OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S TALK

INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN IDAHO:

THE INTERSECTION OF BIOPHYSICAL CHANGE WITH SOCIAL PERCEPTION

ACROSS A DIVERSE LANDSCAPE

Authors*: Zion Klos, John Abatzoglou, Jarod Blades, Melissa Clark, Chistopher Currie, Megan Dodd, Sanford Eigenbrode, Troy Hall, Amanda Haruch, Jeff Hicke, Phil Higuera, Joseph Holbrook, Vincent Jansen, Kerry Kemp, Alycia Lamar, Amber Lankford, Tim Link, Troy Magney, Arjan Meddens, Liza Mitchell, Brandon Moore, Penny Morgan, Beth Newingham, Ryan Niemeyer, Ben Soderquist, Alexis Suazo, Christa Teston, Kerri Vierling, Von Walden, Chelsea Walsh *University of Idaho, multiple colleges and departments

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OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S TALK

1. Objectives2. Methods

– Biophysical changes– Social perceptions

3. Results4. New Insights for Climate Change Assessments5. Outreach Goals

Above and cover photo courtesy Matthew Dolkas

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MAIN OBJECTIVES

1. Provide a framework for finer-scale, indicator-focused climate change assessments

2. Provide a case example that compares perceived impacts and observed indicators of climate change

3. Understand the differences between types of climate change indicators & how they can be classified by their utility for climate assessments

Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 3

INTERDISCIPLINARY METHODS

1. Graduate-student led with input from faculty advisors

2. Conducted stakeholder survey of perceived CC impacts

3. Identified biophysical data sources and CC indicators

4. Created a final interdisciplinary synthesis and translation of findings for general audience

Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 4

BIOPHYSICAL CHANGES: OUR INDICATORS FRAMEWORK...

“Climate Change Indicators” defined as: Observed climate-related trends in variables from

physical, ecological, and social systems

Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 5

SOCIAL PERCEPTIONS:OUR SURVEY FRAMEWORK…

• What is most important and useful?– Impacts (outcomes) of climate change– Indicators of change

• Exploratory survey (N= 100)– Managers asked about personal and professional

significance

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PERCEIVED IMPACTS

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Relevant Climate Change Indicators

8Normalized Importance (%)

Relevant Climate Change Indicators

9Normalized Importance (%)

CLIMATE CHANGE INDICATORS IDENTIFIED • Temperature

– Average annual temperature– Frost-free growing season

• Precipitation– Precipitation phase– Snowpack accumulation and

melt– Precipitation intensity

• Water Systems– Streamflow

• Annual discharge• Timing of peak and 50% flow

– Stream temperature

• Ecological Indicators– Phenology

• Lilac blooms• Mountain Bluebird nesting dates

(state bird!)• Salmon migration

– Disturbance• Wildfire• Bark beetle kill

– Species viability and productivity

• Sagebrush

• Social Indicators– Heat related illness– Recreation

• Ski season

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INTENSIFICATION OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS

Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

FROST-FREE GROWING SEASON

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Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 13

NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS

Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 14

NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS

CC Indicator Type

Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

CC Indicator Type

vs.

Perceived Levelof Impact

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NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS

Direct measure

of climate

Variable partiallyinfluenced by climate

Fire disturbance

Air temperature

Snowpack

Streamflow

Precipitation

Species movementsAnimal

phenology

Stream temperature

Plantphenology

Bioticdisturbance

Species viability &

productivity

Drought

Human activities

Example indicators of climate change

Per

ceiv

ed le

vel o

f im

pac

t in

Idah

o

B

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CA

NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS

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OUTREACH GOALS

1. Website, Online PDF, & Executive Summary– Re-written using more

general language – State-wide distribution

• Peer Reviewed Publication

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RESPONSES AND PERCEIVED IMPACTS BY SECTOR

Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 20

State AgencyState AgencyFederal AgencyFederal AgencyNGONGOCorporate or PrivateCorporate or PrivateOtherOther

Climate Indicator

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