Outline

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE MODELLING and Adaptation

A. ANTHONY CHEN &JAYAKA CAMPBELL

THE CLIMATE STUDIES GROUP MONA (CSGM)

UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES, MONA

OUTLINE Before 2007

Climate Modelling Importance of modelling Early Works

2007 – IPCC 4th Assessment After 2007

Some ResultsCurrent• Future Work

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Defining key termsClimate

“average weather” over period of ~ 30 years usually.Climate Change

A significant change from one climatic condition to another

Due to natural or anthropogenic causes.

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CLIMATE

Climate Modelling is important

Atmosphere is too vast Impossible to carry out large scale experiments

Climate simulation or modelling is the only way to study large scale systems of the atmosphere

Climate models are an important tool for scientists to understand the complexities of Earth’s climate

incorporate both theory and direct observations of the past and present in order to project climate into the future

Lay the foundation for decision making concerning climate change

Introducing key toolsDynamic Climate Model

Equations describing processesTypes

General Circulation Models – GCM’s Regional Climate Models – RCM’s

Domain –Region over which RCM worksStatistical Downscaling Models

Reducing GCM to finer scale by use of statistical relationships between atmospheric parameters and climate variables

Require ~ 30 years of daily data

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Climate Models

Dynamic Computer Models

Solves for/calculates and steps forward in time

• Equations of motion

• First law of thermodynamics

• Physics of water vapor and clouds

•Chemical processes in atmosphere

• Land - atmosphere interactions

Biological processes

• Land - ocean interactions

GCM Resolution are too coarseto identify small islands(Boxes too large)

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RCMs have finer resolution(Smaller boxes)

Distinction between GCM and RCM

Jamaica as an example

GCM – 2 grid boxes RCM – 10 grid boxes

Use Scenarios for Climate Change StudiesPlausible future climate based on perceived

greenhouse gas emission which depend on developments in

DemographicsTechnologyEconomics

Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) SRES Scenarios can be classified into four

family groups further divided into scenario groups.

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SRES FAMILY TREE

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Source : http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/

• Roots are the drivers

• Population

• Economy

• Technology

• Etc

• Branches depend on whether development is

• globally intergated or regional

• Driven by economics or environmental considerations

SRES SCENARIOS

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Source : http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/spm-3.htm

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE MODELLING INITIATIVE 2002

CSGM along with other Caribbean partners (INSMET – Cuba, UWI Cavehill – Barbados and CCCCC – Belize) begun Caribbean modelling initiative

Deliberate collaborative effort to produce Caribbean climate projections at scale of Caribbean.

Premised on shared workload to get results out quickly.

Premised on building of capacity in the region.

Multiple components to the strategy, but concentrate on a major one.

PRECIS Modelling• Complex but

computationally less expensive than a GCM.

• Requires a Desktop Standard Desktop Pentium 4 Processor

• Could be run locally

Introduction a Regional Climate ModelPRECIS - Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies

• Hadley Centre, UK

• Dynamical Downscaling Model (RCM)

• Can be used for any part of the Globe

• Has a resolution of up to 25km• Driven by full suite of physics• Multiple variables on multiple

levels in atmosphere.• Forced at its boundaries by other

GCMs - the HADAM3P GCM and ECHAM.

• Built by UK Hadley Centre but run locally

EARLY WORKS – 2002 CLIMATE MODELLING INITIATIVE

DOMAIN

•Big Domain including all Caribbean, Central America, southern USA and northern South America. Run at 50 km

Two smaller domains:• Western & Eastern Caribbean (yellow and red enclosure) at 25 km

EARLY WORKS – CLIMATE MODELLING INITIATIVE

PRECIS Workload Shared

Cuba

(INSMET)

Carib basin

50 x 50 km

B1 (30 yrs) & A2 (30 yrs)Baseline (30 yrs)Reanalysis (15 yrs)

Jamaica – UWI (Mona)

Carib Basin

50 x 50 km

A2 (30 yrs) & B2 (30 yrs)Baseline (30 yrs)

Barbados – UWI (Cave Hill)

Eastern Caribbean

25 x 25 km

A2 (30 yrs) & B2 (30 yrs)

Baseline (30 yrs)

Belize - 5C’s Caribbean and Eastern Caribbean

Multiple runs

EARLY WORKS – CLIMATE MODELLING INITIATIVE

Baseline (1961 – 1990), Reanalysis (1979 – 1993), A2 & B2 (2071 – 2100)

EARLY WORKS – MODEL VALIDATION

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(A) RainfallEarly season April – JuneLate season August - November

(B) General temperature Pattern Captured

PrecipitationTem

perature

EARLY WORKS – MODEL PROJECTIONS

Mean changes in the annual rainfall for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1990, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2.

A2

B2

General tendency for drying (main Caribbean basin) by end of the century.

Drying between 25% and 30%

Possibly wetter far north Caribbean NDJ and FMA.

Drying exceeds natural variability June-October – wet season dryer!

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EARLY WORKS – MODEL PROJECTIONS

Precipitation Natural Variability

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EARLY WORKS – MODEL PROJECTIONS

Projected Precipitation Change

General tendency for drying (main Caribbean basin) by end of the century.

Drying between 25% and 30%

Possibly wetter far north Caribbean NDJ and FMA.

Drying exceeds natural variability June-October – wet season dryer!

Mean changes in the annual mean surface temperature for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1990, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH & PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2.

A2

B2

Irrespective of scenario the Caribbean expected to warm.

Warming between 1 and 5oC

Warming greater under A2 scenario.

Warming consistent with projections for other parts of globe.

Warming far exceeds natural variability

EARLY WORKS – MODEL PROJECTIONS

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EARLY WORKS – MODEL PROJECTIONS

Temperature Natural Variability

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EARLY WORKS – MODEL PROJECTIONS

Projected Temperature Change

Unable to report results until 2007 due to amount of work involved. Not reported in IPCC 2007 4th Assessment

IPCC 2007 4th Assessment mentioned:

a) GCM work done at UPR Mayaguez:Angeles, M.E., J.E. Gonzalez, D.J. Erickson, and J.L. Hernández, 2007: Predictions of future climate change in the Caribbean region using global general circulation models Int. J. Climatol., 27, 555-569 b) Work done on statistical downscaling at UWI, Mona:http://www.aiaccproject.org

Not Reported in IPCC (2007)

IPCC Fourth Assessment 2003 – 2006Published in 2007

Working Group 1 Report: The Physics Science Basis

(Data Analysis & Climate Modelling)

Working Group II Report:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Working Group III Report"Mitigation of Climate Change"

Temperature Changes under A1B Scenario 1980-1999 to 2080-2099

NOT ENOUGH REGIONAL MODELLING DONE FOR THE CARIBBEAN

o Report based on course General Circualtion models

Temperature Changes under A1B Scenario 1980-1999 to 2080-2099

Rainfall Changes under A1B Scenario 1980-1999 to 2080-2099

Rainfall Changes Changes under A1B Scenario 1980-1999 to 2080-2099

After 2007- A Few Publications – Modelling Initiative

Other reports:Cashman, A., L. Nurse, and J. Charlery. 2010. Climate change in the Caribbean: The water management implications. The Journal of Environment & Development 19(1): 42-67.

Charlery, J., and L. Nurse. 2010. Areal downscaling of global climate models: an approach that avoids data remodelling. Clim Res 43: 241–249. doi: 10.3354/cr00875.

Taylor MA, A Centella, J Charlery, I Borrajero , A Bezanilla, J Campbell, R Rivero, TS Stephenson, F Whyte, R Watson, 2007. Glimpses of the Future: A Briefing from the PRECIS Caribbean Climate Change Project, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize.

Campbell J, MA Taylor, TS Stephenson, RA Watson, FS Whyte, 2010: Future Climate of the Caribbean from a Regional Climate Model. Int J Climatol DOI: 10.1002/joc.2200.

Reporting Purposes

Compiling projections for use in 2nd National Communications:

Antigua

St. Lucia

St. Vincent

Grenada

Jamaica

RCM

2070s

JAN1.6 - 1.9

FEB1.8 - 2.3

MAR1.9 - 2.5

APR1.9 - 2.8

MAY2.2 - 2.7

JUN2.1 - 2.7

JUL1.9 - 2.5

AUG1.9 - 2.2

SEP2.0 - 2.2

OCT1.9 - 2.3

NOV1.8 - 2.1

DEC1.8 - 2.1

ANNUAL

1.9 - 2.4

RCM

2070s

JAN -46.91 --25.90

FEB -78.37 - -50.04

MAR -86.14 - -50.95

APR -81.80 - -57.79

MAY -69.91 - -47.49

JUN -77.10 - -47.26

JUL -57.86 - -29.02

AUG -36.29 - -21.95

SEP -39.94 - -21.95

OCT -33.13 - -3.76

NOV -30.37 - +18.58

DEC -48.69 - -8.32

ANNUAL -57.21 - -27.94

Temps Rainfall

St. Lucia

After 2007 – USE OF DATA

MORE RECENT – PILOT PROJECT FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE (PPCR)

Climatology, Trends, Projections and Impacts for Jamaica

Funded by adaptation and mitigation funds following Copenhagen and Cancun

PPCR – the first program developed and operational under the Strategic Climate Fund (SCF),

SCF one of two funds within the design of the Climate Investment Funds (CIF)

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CURRENT & Future – MODELLING INITIATIVE

Uncertainies in model results Increase confidence limits by averaging the results

of many models Expand range of RCMs

PRECISWRFREMOCCSM

Use of high resolution GCM (Japanese 20 km model)

Investigating Hurricane like vortices present in climate models.

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CURRENT – MODELLING INITIATIVE

ModelWRF - H

Addition of the Japanese MRI Earth Simulator model resultsGCMHorizontal resolution 20km24 Levels of atmosphere26 Variables (16 surface, 10 3D)All variables are monthly averages

GCM model with highest resolution so far

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CURRENT – MODELLING INITIATIVE

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CURRENT – MODELLING INITIATIVE

Diagram shows how accurately the 20 km JMA/MRI Model represents topographical heights. GTOPO30 - observed topographical heights.20, 60, 120 and 180 km model simulations

Note : Above 60 Km even the mountains of larger territory of Hispaniola aren’t simulated

JAPA

NES

E M

OD

EL

RES

ULT

S -

TO

PO

GR

APH

Y

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CURRENT – MODELLING INITIATIVELooking at Western Caribbean mountains (Belize) from South to North, 20 km resolution better than 60, 120, 180

JAPA

NES

E M

OD

EL

RES

ULT

S -

TO

PO

GR

APH

Y

Diagram the comparison of Grey blocks (GTOPO30 - observed topographical heights) and modeled 20, 60, 120 and 180 km simulations of cross-section for particular latitudes

Past & Current work offers a first look at the possibilities for the future of Caribbean climate. However we need to:Expand the range of forcing GCMs of the PRECIS

model from HADCM3 and ECHAM5 Incorporate more RCMs to add a greater degree of

confidence to generated projections.Move from atmosphere only models to ones with a

coupled ocean-atmosphere frameworkRun a full ensemble of climate modelling

scenarios, not just the extremes in each case.More Statistical downscaling

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FUTURE –MODELLING INITIATIVE

Future - Analysis of Model Results using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) for IPCC 5th

RH Moss et al. Nature 463, 747-756 (2010) doi:10.1038/nature08823

Representative concentration pathways.Radiative forcing: measure of difference between incoming and outgoing radiation in the atmosphere

Image 2.6 emissions will restrict temperature rise to 2ºC

Form closer relationship with the Impact and Adaptation community.Climate Impacts our daily life; How do we adapt?

The Caribbean is heavily dependent on agriculture and tourism, so what is the significance of a projected 1ºC – 5ºC rise in temperature to those sectors?

What do the projected changes mean for the onset or spread of tropical diseases (examples .. dengue or leptospirosis)?

How or will the projected changes in climate impact development and plannning?

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FUTURE –MODELLING & OTHER SECTORS

More Partnerships

Too difficult, time consuming for any one country or institution.Collaboration heightens efficiency for producing usable results.Builds synergies/support groups across institutions.

FUTURE

End-Note Climate affects all aspects of life (Taylor, 2010) Climate change is a threat to all life Concern of all our government ministries, private

sector organizations and civil society With no global accord on the reduction of GHGs,

threat of climate change will become very severe

the cost of adapting, especially to sea level rise, will become enormous

future prosperity of the Caribbean community will be at risk.

Thank YouClimate Studies Group Mona