Outline 1.Background on risk and decision research 2.Research methods, findings, and issues 3.Example questions.

Outline

1. Background on risk and decision research

2. Research methods, findings, and issues

3. Example questions

1. How do people make decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty?

• What is important information to attend to?• What’s a worthwhile risk to take?• How do we trade off risks and benefits?

2. Do people in different settings vary in their risk perceptions and decision processes?

3. What is the role of psychological and socio-cultural factors in risk perceptions and decision processes?

Research Motivations

Decision Making under Uncertainty:Tricky Questions

Are communities’ reactions to risk

legitimate?

Why do people’s perceptions differ?

Why do differences persist, despite education?

Fatality Risk

5 x 10-6

Importance

Practical Importance Articulate gaps between different stakeholder values

Facilitate risk debates and communications

Improve decision processes and outcomes

Theoretical Importance Accurately describe underlying processes

Explain individual and group differences

Generalize across risk domains, contexts

Predict how DM, task, and context characteristics influence risk perceptions and behavioral responses

Lay people overestimate rare events & underestimate frequent events

Relationship between judged frequency & actual number of deaths/year (Lichtenstein et al., 1978)5

Dimensions of Risk

UNKNOWN

DREADED

KNOWN

NOT DREADED

Source: Slovic 1987

Attitudes Toward Regulation of Hazards

The larger the point the greater the desire for strict regulation to reduce risk

Cultural Differences in Risk Preferences

Chinese less risk averse than Americans (Hsee & Weber, 1999; Weber & Hsee, 1998)

Cushion hypothesis More help available in a socially collectivist society

so more risky gambles OK Less risk aversion among Chinese only for

investment decisions Risk preferences related to size and quality of social

networks

Risk Perceptions Reflect Deep-Seated Values

People with low risk perceptions are more likely: to agree with statements reflecting hierarchical views

“When a risk is very small, it is OK for society to impose that risk on individuals without their consent”

to disagree with egalitarian statements

“The world needs more equal distribution of wealth”

to disagree with community-based decision making

“People living near a nuclear power plant should be able to vote and to close the plant if they think it is not being run safely”

Policy Implications

Different worldviews matter because they determine which approach to safety will be supported

Sheehy et al (1996): Hierarchists prefer expert groups Egalitarians prefer personal choice and endorse

labeling All want to be involved in DM, but some more

willing to trust the judgment of others Focusing only on socio-ecological variables

will not reveal socio-psychological differentiation of those more or less successful in responding to AI

Empirical Research on the Perceived Risk of HPAI

Most research done in Western countries Focus on AI in humans (rather than poultry) Studies in Asia show perceived risk correlated with:

Gender (women perceive more risk) Age (older people perceive more risk) Efficacy (greater ability to protect related to lower perceived risk) Control (higher perceived personal control related to lower PR) Trust in public authorities

Protective behavior more likely with: Higher education Urban living Knowledge of HPAI Owning poultry

Perceptions of HPAI Risk in Poultry Takeuchi (2006), Thailand (urban, suburban, rural)

6% of rural ppts with backyard chickens aware of symptoms in poultry No testing for AI Reporting system not easily accessible Optimistic bias (aware of AI reports, but thought unlikely in their flocks)

Barennes et al. (2007), Laos (urban, semi-urban, rural) <50% had knowledge of symptoms in poultry 50% believed their poultry not at risk for AI No-one notified authorities of poultry deaths

Ly et al. (2007), Cambodia (rural) 62% experienced poultry deaths, 7% reported deaths to authorities Important to report deaths because due to AI (61%), get advice (39%) Non-reporting due to lack of knowledge of reporting procedure, not

being in habit, fears of problem selling, fears of culling Dead poultry buried (62%), prepared for food (53%), thrown away

(22%), used as feed (3%), sold/given away (2%)

Risk Perception Hypotheses

H0: Perceived risk not related to setting. H1a: Perceived risk correlated with setting (à la

Kuznets: highest in transitional setting). H1b: Perceived risk correlated with setting (à

la risk society: highest in most modern setting) because feelings of trust and control are eroded.

H2: A significant amount of setting-related RP variance can be accounted for by socio-ecological and socio-psychological (efficacy, affect, worldviews, etc) factors

Free Association

What thoughts or images come to mind when you hear the phrase “avian influenza in poultry?”

Very Negative

Negative Neutral Positive Very Positive

1 2 3 4 5

Very Negative

Negative Neutral Positive Very Positive

1 2 3 4 5

Please rate the valence of each thought/image on the scale below.

Direct Report on Affective Responses to Risk

How worried/fearful are you about avian influenza infecting birds in

your commune?

Not at all worried

A little worried

Moderately worried

Very worried

Extremely worried

1 2 3 4 5

How worried are you about you or your family getting sick with avian influenza? How worried are you about you or your family being stigmatized by an outbreak of avian influenza in your

birds? How worried are you about being unable to sell your birds because of avian influenza? How worried are you about income loss from culling your flock due to an outbreak of avian influenza?

Need the right word here to capture feelings about risk

Avoid optimistic bias?

Direct Report on AI Risk

How serious are the impacts of avian influenza in your commune?

How vulnerable are birds in your commune to avian influenza?

Direct Report on Relative Risk

Please rank these risks to Vietnamese society from most to least risky.

_ Lacking enough food_ Natural hazards (such as earthquakes,

floods, drought)_ Avian influenza in poultry_ Urbanization of the landscape_ Financial security

Qualitative Characteristics Please tell us how familiar you are with avian influenza in

birds in the sense that you feel you know something about it or know someone who has experienced it.

How dreaded is avian influenza in birds? How much control do you think you have over avian influenza

in birds? How much of a burden on a family is avian influenza in birds? How fatal is avian influenza for birds?

Not at all familiar

A little familiar

Moderately familiar

Very familiar

1 2 3 4

Direct report of relative importance of system elements

According to your knowledge, give a rank to the following items in terms of their importance in contributing to an outbreak of avian influenza in poultry.

Rank:

Quality of feed

Size of flock

Farmer poultry management practices

Waste management practices

Government policies

Direct report of disease causation mental models How important are each of the following as a cause of AI in birds?

Not at all important

A little important

Moderately important

Very important

Don’t know

Chance 1 2 3 4 9

Contact with germs 1 2 3 4 9

Contact with blood 1 2 3 4 9

Genetic inheritance 1 2 3 4 9

Poor diet and/or too little physical activity

1 2 3 4 9

Stress 1 2 3 4 9

Retribution 1 2 3 4 9

Government policies 1 2 3 4 9

Cultural practices (e.g., Tet Lunar New Year celebrations)

1 2 3 4 9

Efficacy How available is a vaccine for avian influenza in poultry?

Not at all available

A little available

Moderately available

Very available

1 2 3 4

If a vaccine were available, how confident are you that it is effective?

Not at all confident

A little confident

Moderately confident

Very confident

1 2 3 4

If a vaccine were available, how confident are you that you can secure and administer the vaccine?

Not at all confident

A little confident

Moderately confident

Very confident

1 2 3 4

Protective behaviors (Y/N)

Participated in vaccination program? Reported sick birds? Culled sick birds? Restricting the use of poultry manure? Other…

Worldviews and ValuesStrongly disagree

Disagree Agree Strongly agree

Don’t know

1. In a good system, people who try harder should be rewarded financially

1 2 3 4 9

2. The government should strictly limit people’s personal risk-taking activities.

1 2 3 4 9

3. When a risk to an individual is small but the benefits to society are large, it is OK for authorities to impose that risk on individuals without their consent.

1 2 3 4 9

4. Life’s ups and downs are mostly a matter of fate or divine will, not personal control.

1 2 3 4 9

Support for Policies

To manage HPAI risk, a poultry certification program has been proposed. This program would aim to improve food safety and animal health. It would include sampling, testing, labeling, veterinary inspections, fines, and ads.

What would you be willing to pay for this program?

Paired Comparisons: Indirect assessment of the relative importance of information

Importance of Information

How important is each of the following as a source of information when judging the risk of avian influenza to poultry?_ Media reports_ Local health officials_ Friends and family_ Natural environment_ Built environment

Knowledge

Avian influenza is transmitted from bird to bird by saliva.

True/ False

Avian influenza in poultry can be prevented by a vaccine.

True/ False

Other…

Background Demographics

Age Gender Education Marital Status Employment Place you call home: rural or urban How many people live with you? Feeling about current income? General health status (poor, fair, good, excellent)