Our Immersive Future Twelve Tech and Social Developments Worth Fighting For ImTech 2010 Los Angeles, CA John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation.

Our Immersive FutureTwelve Tech and Social Developments Worth Fighting For

ImTech 2010Los Angeles, CA

John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies [email protected]: accelerating.org/slides.html

Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto

AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

© 2010 Accelerating.org

Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do

▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that

we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of

2. Convergent and predictable developmental constraints (initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain aspects of our long-range future.

▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include:– Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity

in our global sociotechnological systems– Increasing technological autonomy, and – Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-

digital interface.



From the Metaverse to Metahumanity:Evolutionary Development of the Web

Web 1.0 Read Mainly (Graphical UI)

Web 2.0 Read/Write/Play (Participatory, Social UI)

Web 3.0 Video (iTV, Geosocial Web, AR, VW, MW)

Web 4.0 Semantic (CI, Cyber/Lobbytwins, Valuecosm)

Web 5.0 Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain, NUI ‘Tech and Social Singularity’)

We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.

Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony (iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking (Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video (YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin), lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude).

Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA, ‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’). This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction process society has ever engaged in.

Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org

Web

Metaverse

Metahumanity

Metaverseroadmap.org


http://www.metaverseroadmap.org/

Six Tech DevelopmentsWorth Fighting For



Video Cellphone, Tablet, and Laptop




Wearcam.org’s first-gen‘sousveillance’ cams (2001)

‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006)

‘Carpal PC’ concept(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)

Flip Ultra (2007, $130)Top-selling camcorder.

Necklace phone(Nokia 2004)

iPhone (Apple 2007)

Wearable AR and Full AR Cellphone



Wearable LifeLog Cellphone





What are the most exciting developmental uses for a tablet? #1. iTV Remote! #2. e-Reading, #3 Video, #4 Games, #5 Clipboard.

There are about 2.3 billion TVs in the world. 15,000+ streamable TV channels. Thousands more sit on the web, waiting for bandwidth. May be hundreds of thousands by 2015.

25% of US TVs sold in Jan 2010 were connected by consumers to the internet (internally or via a set top box, game console, DVD player), 40% of these were internally-enabled.

Tablet TV Remote: Voice enabled, collaborative filtering of thousands of channels, 2ndary screen, social viewing (chat, teamspeak), P2PTV, true internet television.

Lenovo Ideapad U1: Bestmultiuse design. June 2010

Will Google get this done?

A perfect YouTube front end.

Apple iPad: No Apple TV.Too little, too closed.

iTV (True Internet Television)



Third-Cave, Half-Cave, Game Table, and Game Space




Conversational Interface, Memeshows, Cybertwins, and Valuecosm

Date Avg. Query Platform

1998 1.3 words Altavista2005 2.6 words Google2012 5.2 words GoogleHelp2019 10.4 words

GoogleBrain

Average spoken human-to-humanquery length is 8-11 words.

Codebreaking follows a logistic curve.

Collective NLP may as well.

Smart, J. 2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.

Six Social DevelopmentsWorth Fighting For



Better Socialization and Intimacy

© 2009 Accelerating.org© 2010 Accelerating.org

▪ A permanently better new primary way of interacting with our machines.

▪ Start with a game (limited domain) and kids (patience for avatars of limited intelligence).

▪ Once this conversational interface is server-based, it will get smarter every month. Like Google’s does now. Then every week.

▪ A time when serious games can get serious. Milo and Kate, Lionhead Studios, Peter Molyneux (Proposed Dec 2010)



Better Work and Collaboration


When we have an early Metaverse 2.0, lifelogs, and pervasive broadband connectivity, we can expect…

150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page 2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.

A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).

Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals. Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.

New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).

Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill) and performance enhancement.

Fantastic new subcultural diversity (transhumanist symbionts, Amish symbionts, etc.)

Page, Scott. 2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies, Princeton U. Press.

http://www.amazon.com/Difference-Diversity-Creates-Schools-Societies/dp/0691138540



Better Democracy and Civics




Better Learning and Edutainment/Serious Games


What Do You Want to Improve? IT/Infrastructure Mgmt Identity Management Social Networks Video Management Marketing Education Knowledge Management Performance Management Talent Management Innovation Social Responsibility Environmental Sustainability Organizational Development Collective Foresight




Better Healing and Addiction Management




Better Decisionmaking and Self-Actualization


Some Challenges - particularly early: Data Security and Privacy Predictive Marketing and Profiling Debt Slavery and Overconsumption New Forms of Crime and Fraud Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community) Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?) New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?)

Some Opportunities - particularly later: Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your

sentences?) Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks) Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier) Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced) Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’) Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts.

Closing Thoughts

Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html

Our Immersive Future Twelve Tech and Social Developments Worth Fighting For ImTech 2010 Los Angeles, CA John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation.

Documents

web web

social ui web

valuecosm web

mw web

geosocial web

web metaverse metahumanity

ar cellphone slide

c3 nonprofit wearable