What’s New: Advisory Council on Government Debt Management P2-5 MOF explained the basic concept on “JGB issuance based on medium- to long-term market demands,” followed by an analysis of the JGB supply and demand trend based on the concept. Efforts for “increasing the liquidity of the JGB market” were also presented. Most members agreed on the concept. Various perspectives on JGB investment trends were discussed. MOF starts discussions for the FY2018 JGB annual issuance plan, taking these opinions mentioned in the meeting into account. Q&A: T+1 JGB settlement in details P6-7 We receive various kinds of questions from JGB investors. We start a Q&A section from this newsletter and are happy to answer your questions here. This time, Kokusai Sensei would like to explain the T+1 JGB settlement cycle. Monthly Topic: BOJ Tankan, September 2017 survey P8 The Business Condition Index of Large Manufacturers sentiment hits the highest level in a decade since Lehman shock. IR Office: To the East Asia and US P9 Our IR activities in October: East Asia and US overseas IR tour (Statistics) JGB Primary Market … P10 The Auction for Enhanced Liquidity and JGB Buy-Back … P11 JGB Secondary Market … P12 Investor Trends and JGB Outstanding … P14 Economic and Financial Trend … P18 Information … P19 Monthly Newsletter of the Ministry of Finance, Japan JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS SUMMARY The Ministry of Finance www.mof.go.jp Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to achieve stable and smooth financing for our national accounts and to minimize medium-to-long term financing costs. November 2017 -1- New look for JGB Monthly Newsletter The MOF JGB IR team in November starts to publish the JGB Monthly Newsletter in a renewed format. Since the launch of the new IR team in July after reshuffling, we have considered the update of the format to make it easier to navigate and more interactive. The changes include: Summary by which readers can grasp the contents in a minute Q&A which answers frequently asked questions in our IR activities We hope this new look helps you. Any question, feel free to ask us at: [email protected]
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What’s New: Advisory Council on Government Debt Management P2-5 MOF explained the basic concept on “JGB issuance based on medium- to long-term
market demands,” followed by an analysis of the JGB supply and demand trend basedon the concept. Efforts for “increasing the liquidity of the JGB market” were alsopresented.
Most members agreed on the concept. Various perspectives on JGB investment trendswere discussed.
MOF starts discussions for the FY2018 JGB annual issuance plan, taking theseopinions mentioned in the meeting into account.
Q&A: T+1 JGB settlement in details P6-7 We receive various kinds of questions from JGB investors. We start a Q&A section from
this newsletter and are happy to answer your questions here. This time, Kokusai Senseiwould like to explain the T+1 JGB settlement cycle.
Monthly Topic: BOJ Tankan, September 2017 survey P8 The Business Condition Index of Large Manufacturers sentiment hits the highest level
in a decade since Lehman shock.
IR Office: To the East Asia and US P9 Our IR activities in October: East Asia and US overseas IR tour
(Statistics)JGB Primary Market … P10 The Auction for Enhanced Liquidity and JGB Buy-Back … P11
Economic and Financial Trend … P18 Information … P19
Monthly Newsletter of the Ministry of Finance, Japan JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS
SUMMARY
The Ministry of Finance www.mof.go.jp
Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to achieve stable and smooth financing for our national accounts and to minimize medium-to-long term financing costs.
November 2017
-1-
New look for JGB Monthly Newsletter The MOF JGB IR team in November starts to publish the JGB Monthly Newsletter in a renewed format. Since the launch of the new IR team in July after reshuffling, we have considered the update of the format to make it easier to navigate and more interactive. The changes include: Summary by which readers can grasp the contents in a minute Q&A which answers frequently asked questions in our IR activitiesWe hope this new look helps you. Any question, feel free to ask us at: [email protected]
The 45th meeting of the Advisory Council on Government Debt Management The 45th meeting of the Advisory Council on Government Debt Management was held on October 18, 2017. The agenda was as follows: (Agenda)
The MOF starts discussions for the FY2018 JGB annual issuance plan, considering the opinions mentioned in the meeting.
1. Current Debt Management Policy
[Summary of the MOF explanation on current debt management policy]
① JGB issuance based on medium- to long-term (mid-long) market demands
The basic objectives of the debt management policy have been: - “Implement secure and smooth issuance of JGBs” and - “Minimize medium to long term financing costs.”
In order to achieve them, the MOF aims to promote dialogue with the market and issues JGBs based on market demand. Although market demand-based issuance is intended, excessive response to temporary demands may raise funding costs by harming predictability for market participants or causing distortions of the market. Therefore, it is important to aim at “more stable and predictable issuance of JGBs” considering mid-long-term market demand. In this regard, the MOF analyzed expected supply and demand trends of JGBs in the mid-long term as follows.
Supply side Under the low interest rate environment, to reduce the future interest rate risks, the annual issuance amount of super-long-term bonds has increased in recent years, while that of short- and medium-term bonds has decreased. As a result, the outstanding amount of super-long-term bonds has increased significantly and that of medium- and long-term bonds has increased slightly.
Demand side The MOF analyzed investment trends in JGBs by banks, the main investors for short- and medium-term bonds, and life insurance companies, the main investors for super-long-term bonds. In recent years, life insurance companies increased their super-long-term bond holdings, while banks decreased JGB holdings. As a result, the demand for super-long-term bonds has been on the same trend as the supply side, which has significantly increased in the outstanding amount. However, this structure may change hereafter.
-2-
What’s new
If the current JGB maturity composition was kept unchanged, a considerable amount of super-long-term issuance would be supplied to the market over time, despite netting out of the redemption. On the other hand, the redemption amount of medium- and long-term bonds tends to exceed the issuance amount. To aim at “more stable and predictable issuance of JGBs,” it is important to determine the change in market demand in the mid-long term and set the JGB maturity composition consistent with the change.
-3-
Historical Changes in Outstanding Amount of JGB by maturities
Changes in Outstanding Amount (Net issuance amount of each maturity)
Outstanding Amount of JGB
(FY end)
(trillion yen)
Note1. Up to FY2016: Actual figures, FY2017: Estimate based on initial budget (including 56 trillion yen of front-loading bond)Note2. Outstanding amount by maturities is that of 2-40 Year JGBs which have not matured, not categorized by remaining maturitiesNote3. Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding
(trillion yen)
(FY end)
② Increasing liquidity of JGB market
Liquidity of the JGB Market is another important issue. According to the BOJ’s “Bond Market Survey,” the JGB market function continues to be evaluated as low (or not very high). Also, the supply-demand balance of specific JGB issues may become tightened. One of the causes is that the BOJ purchases issues broadly including off-the-run issues by market operations, while the MOF mainly supplies on-the-run issues by auctions. The MOF focuses on conducting “Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity,” to supply off-the-run issues that are short of liquidity structurally or due to rising demand. The annual issuance amount of this auction has increased in recent years, and the scope of eligible issues has expanded. With regard to “Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity,” issuance amounts of each zone are determined in every quarter, in response to the market environment, based on discussions with market participants. It is considered that this flexible measure will become more important to enhance the market liquidity by the MOF.
-4-
Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity〇Some of off-the-run issues are short of liquidity due to some reasons, such as that considerable amount is held by investors until their maturities.
〇Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity are conducted to enhance function of the JGB market by supplying issues short of market liquidity.
〇 In particular, off-the-run issues are classified by remaining maturity in 3 zones (in 1-5years, 5-15.5years, 15.5-39 years) and the auctions are held respectively. Participants of the auction are limited to JGB Market Special Participants (21 companies). In these auctions, the issuing authority starts selling first to the price which has a large difference from the market price in descending order until the cumulative total reaches the planned issuance amount.
(Note) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity was first introduced in April 2006. From April 2016, a zone for issues maturing in 1-5years was introduced. Details of Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity, such as the allocation of issuance amount for each zone, are determined in every quarter, in response to the market environment and investor demands, based on discussions with market participants.
inve
stors
・・・・
Remaining maturity 10 years
Remaining maturity 9 years (10-year bonds issued a
year ago)
Remaining maturity 7 years (10-year bonds issued
three year ago)
Remaining maturity 8 years (10-year bonds issued two
year ago)
Regular Auctions
【FY2017: 2.3 trillion yen every month】
Issued in response to demand
【The difference between Regular auctions andAuctions for Enhanced-liquidity】
< The image of Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity >
Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity(remaining maturity 5-15.5 years)
【FY2017: 0.55 trillion yen every month】
Regular Auctions Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity
Auction Participants
244 companies(financial institutions, etc.)
21 companies(JGB Market Special Participants)
Issue single issue any eligible issues for each zone
Auction methods
selling first to the highest price
selling first to the price which has a large differencefrom the market price
[Opinions from the participants]
(Importance of JGB issuance based on mid-long-term market demand trend)
- Most members agreed on the importance of JGB issuance based on mid-long-term market demand trend, as well as the importance of the Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity.
- Some members mentioned that it is important to discuss the debt management policy from a mid-long-term perspective and at the same time, flexibility is also important to continuously ensure stable issuance. For the flexibility, it was mentioned that active use of Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity continues to be favorable.
(Various perspectives of investment trends of JGBs)
- One of the members mentioned that banks have purchased JGBs and life insurance companies and pension funds have demanded long-term JGBs. If the monetary policy shifts toward tapering, deposit increase in the private sector would slow down. If the population is aging, payments of life insurance companies and pension funds would exceed their revenues. It could decrease demand for JGBs.
- Another member agreed to the MOF’s explanation that banks started to retain their holding amount of JGBs for collateral use. The member added that it should be notified that most JGBs which banks pledge for collateral are JGBs whose durations are less than 2 years.
- With regard to the MOF’s explanation that the liability side of life insurance companies may change hereafter, both in qualitative and quantitative ways, under the aging society with declining population, one of the members mentioned that the liability side may not change just as the MOF explained, because the decline in mortality rate may lead to investment demand in different ways.
- Another member mentioned that until recently, there had been some merits to maturity extension of government debt, to control refunding risks for government, and also to fulfill demands of investors seeking higher return. However, the presence of foreign investors and HFT (High Frequency Trading) has increased in recent years, as opposed to domestic demand which is expected to decline hereafter under the declining population. The time to change the debt management policy towards well-balanced issuance will come.
2. Shortening JGB Settlement Cycles (report)
The details are explained in the Q&A.
-5-
Q1. What is the T+1 JGB settlement cycle and when will it start? A1. The purpose of the introduction of the T+1 settlement cycle is to mitigate settlement risk. In
the T+1 JGB settlement cycle, you will have the settlement on the next business day of the contract day. For example, when you purchase JGBs on Wednesday, May 1, 2018, you will receive the JGBs and pay cash on Thursday, May 2, 2018. The T+1 JGB settlement cycle will start on May 1, 2018, instead of T+2 both in primary and secondary markets. Overview of shortening of settlement cycle of JGB
Settlement date
Present After May 2018 (planned)
Secondary Market T+2
(2 business days after contract) T+1
(1 business day after contract)
Primary Market
General rule T+2
(2 business days after auction) T+1
(1 business day after auction)
Interest-bearing bonds (5-30 Years) issued in March, June, September or December
20th day of auction month (following day if 20th day is holiday)
T+1 (1 business day after auction)
*Maturity will become 3 months shorter
2 Year bonds 15th day of next month of auction
(following day if 15th day is holiday) 1st day of next month of auction (following day if 1st day is holiday)
Q2. Why will the maturity become 3 months shorter only for interest-bearing bonds (5-
30 Years) issued in March, June, September or December in the Primary market (blue cell)? A2. Maturities of 5-30 Year JGBs which are issued in March, June, September or December
will be 3 months shorter than now. The rule to fix the maturity date will be changed as below: Change of the rule to fix the maturity date of 5-30 Year JGBs
Issue Month Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Now (PRESENT) 20 December 20 March 20 June 20 September 20 Dec.
From May 2018 (NEW) 20 December 20 March 20 June 20 September
To explain the background of the change, let’s see a hypothetical example comparing with the
PRESENT rule. [Hypothetical example 1: September 2018 auction of 20 Year JGB under PRESENT rule] - Auction Date: 18 September 2018 - Issue Date: 19 September 2018 - 1st coupon payment: 20 September 2018 (under NEW rule, it will be 20 December 2019) - Maturity Date: 20 September 2038 (under NEW rule, it will be 20 June 2038) In this example, there is only a 1-day gap between the issue date and the 1st coupon payment date. Because some investors said that a short gap between the issue date and the 1st coupon payment date demanded large-scale system improvement, etc., we decided to introduce the NEW rule to avoid such a short gap.
Q&A: T+1 JGB settlement cycle We receive various kinds of questions from JGB investors. We start Q&A section from this newsletter and are happy to answer your questions here. This time, I would like to explain T+1 JGB settlement cycle.
Kokusai Sensei
-6-
Q3. Why will the settlement date be the 1st day of the next month of auction only for 2-
Year bonds in the Primary market (red cell)? A3. The issuance date of 2-Year bonds will be exclusively the 1st day of the next month of the
auction date. It WILL NOT be mechanically T+1. Again, to explain the background of this exceptional treatment, let’s see two hypothetical examples. Please note that auctions of 2-Year JGBs are held once a month, usually on Tuesday or Thursday at/around the end of each month. [Hypothetical example 2: February 2019 auction of 2 Year JGB] - Auction Date: 28 February 2019 - T+1: 1 March 2019 [Hypothetical example 3: March 2019 auction of 2 Year JGB] - Auction Date: 28 March 2019 - T+1: 29 March 2019 These examples show us that with mechanical application of the T+1 rule, 2-Year JGBs could not be issued in a month and could be issued once or twice in another month. To ensure ONE issue in a month and settle as early as possible, we will have this exception.
If you have any questions regarding the contents of this newsletter, please do not hesitate to contact us at: [email protected]
The Bank of Japan’s TANKAN (Sept. 2017 Survey) On October 2, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released the TANKAN, a quarterly survey of more than
10,000 companies. The points are as follows:
MONTHLY TOPIC
-8-
The Business Condition Index for Large Manufacturing Enterprises came in at 22, showing its highest level in a decade which is equal to before Lehman shock.
The Index shows four consecutive quarters of improving in Business Conditions.
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", % points)
(Source) Bank of Japan “Tankan” For more information, see http://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/tk/index.htm/
During the second week of October, Mr. Furuya, deputy director-general of the Financial Bureau, and Mr. Nakatsui, deputy-director for debt management, made a trip to East Asia, Hong Kong, Beijing and Seoul to update the Japanese economy and debt management policy and have discussions with JGB investors. In the discussions, the main topics were the outlook of the general election in Japan, the consumption tax hike, inflation and JGB issuance plans. Supported by the investors’ good knowledge of JGBs, the discussions were much more fruitful than expected. In addition, because it was perfect weather and the IR-team walked a lot on the trip, it was much healthier than expected.
During the first week of October, Ms. Kimata, director for debt
management and JGB investor relations, and Mr. Oshima, researcher, visited Boston and NY to have meetings with various JGB investors including asset management companies and banks. The first city was Boston where the first open-ended investment fund was born. We could see different types of asset managers (passive, active, etc.) but our discussions were always active. After 5 meetings in Boston, we flew to NY, a financial center of the world. In NY, we had 8 meetings with various investors. The topics of the discussions spanned a wide range, including the Japanese economy, politics and the JGB market. Supported by a warm welcome and great weather on the trip, we fortunately completed our schedule perfectly. We appreciate everyone and look forward to seeing them again.
-9-
IR OFFICE
If you have any questions regarding the contents of this newsletter, please do not hesitate to contact us at: [email protected]
11/22(Wed) T-Bills (3-month) 12/19(Tue) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity (remaining maturities of 15.5-39 years) 1/18(Thu) T-Bills (3-month)
Top 10 PDs by Total Purchase in Auctions (Calculated by Duration) (Apr. 2017 ~ Sep. 2017) 1 Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd. 6 Deutsche Securities lnc. 2 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. 7 SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. 3 Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. 8 BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited 4 Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. 9 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. 5 Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co., Ltd. 10 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.
JGB PRIMARY MARKET
Note.1: The above calendar may be changed or added in light of changes in circumstances. In such cases, it will be announced in advance. Note.2: Each issue amount will be announced about one week prior to each auction date.
THE AUCTIONS FOR ENHANCED-LIQUIDITY AND JGB BUY-BACK
①Remaining maturity : approx.1‐~5‐year
③Remaining maturity : approx.15.5‐~39‐year
Note1: JN shows 2‐year JGBs. JS shows 5‐year JGBs. JL shows 20‐year JGBs. JX shows 30‐year JGBs. JU shows 40‐year JGBs. Outstanding amount is as of the end of September 2017. Note2: All issues in the graph above will be eligible afterward.
Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)
1 2 5
(Remaining maturities)
(billion yen)
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
326
327
JL59
JL60 32
8JL
61 329
JL62
JL63 33
033
1JL
64 332
JL65
JL66 33
3JL
67JL
68JL
69 334
JL70
JL71 33
5JL
72 336
337
JL73
JL74 33
8JL
75JL
76JL
77 339
JL78
JL79
JL80 34
0JL
81JL
82 341
JL83
JL84 34
2JL
85JL
86JL
87 343
JL88
JL89 34
4JL
90JL
91 345
JL92 34
6JL
93JL
94 347
JL95
JL96
JL97
JL98
JL99
JL10
0JL
101
JL10
2JL
103
JL10
4JL
105
JL10
6JL
107
JL10
8JL
109
JL11
0JL
111
JL11
2JL
113
JX1
JL11
4JL
115
JX2
JL11
6JL
117
JX3
JL11
8JL
119
JL12
0JL
121
JL12
2JX
4JL
123
JL12
4JL
125
JL12
6JL
127
JX5
JL12
8JL
129
JL13
0JL
131
JX6
JL13
2JL
133
JL13
4JL
135
JL13
6JX
7JL
137
JL13
8JL
139
JL14
0JX
8JL
141
JL14
2JX
9JL
143
JL14
4JX
10
Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)
5 10 15.5
(Remaining maturities)
(billion yen)
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000
JL14
5
JX11
JL14
6
JX12
JL14
7
JX13
JL14
8
JX14
JL14
9
JX15
JL15
0
JX16
JL15
1
JX17
JL15
2
JX18
JL15
3
JX19
JL15
4
JX20
JL15
5
JX21
JL15
6
JX22
JL15
7
JX23
JL15
8
JX24
JL15
9
JX25
JL16
0
JX26
JL16
1
JX27
JX28
JX29
JX30
JX31
JX32
JX33
JX34
JX35
JX36
JX37
JX38
JX39
JX40
JX41
JX42
JX43
JX44
JX45
JX46
JX47
JX48
JX49
JX50
JX51
JX52
JX53
JX54
JX55 JU1
JU2
JU3
JU4
JU5
JU6
JU7
JU8
JU9
Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)(billion yen)
Note: BEI (Japan : 10 year) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of the new Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the 10-Year Bonds Source: Japan: Calculation by the Ministry of Finance based on the information on interest rates offered by NIKKEI QUICK.
U.S.A., U.K. : Bloomberg.
JGB SECONDARY MARKET JGB Yield Curves
Source: Japan Bond Trading Co.,Ltd.
Yields of JGB
Long - Term Interest Rates (10Yr) Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
-12-
Yield and Volatility (10Yr)
Break-Even Inflation Rates
Source: Bloomberg, Calculation by the Ministry of Finance
(Until 29 September 2017)
(Until 29 September 2017)
(Until 29 September 2017)
(Until 29 September 2017)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Bond-Lending
Bond-Gensaki
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Treasury Discount BillsMedium Term BondsLong Term Bonds
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Call Rate (Uncollateralized Overnight)
TIBOR 3-months (Euro-Yen)
Basic Loan Rate
Short-Term Interest Rates
Source: Bank of Japan, Japanese Bankers Association
①Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Futures Market)
②Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Market)
③JGB Holdings by Foreign Investors
-15-
JGBs Holdings by Foreign Investors
Banks(Banking Accounts) Life Insurance Companies
Transactions of Domestic Securities by Non-Residents
Note: “JGB” includes T-Bills. Source: Bank of Japan
Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association
Outstanding of Repurchase Agreements (by Investor types)
Transactions of Foreign Securities by Residents (by Investor types)
Source: Ministry of Finance
Foreign Investors Presence
Note.1: Quarterly basis. Note.2: “JGB” includes T-Bills. The figures of ②excludes dealers’ transactions. Source: Bank of Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Tokyo Stock Exchange,
Breakdown by JGB and T-Bill Holders (The end of Jun. 2017 QE)
Source: Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds Accounts (Preliminary Figures)” Note1: “JGB” includes FILP Bonds. Note2: “Banks, etc.” includes Japan Post Bank, “Securities investment trust” and “Securities companies.” Note3: “Life and Nonlife insurance” includes Japan Post Insurance.
(trillion yen)
Breakdown of Outstanding Amount of General Bonds by Remaining Years to Maturity
T-Bill Holders
Total 112.0 trillion yen
JGB Holders
Total 972.9 trillion yen
Total 1,084.9 trillion yen
-16-
General Government(ex Public Pensions)
0.0 0.0%
Fiscal Loan Fund
0.0 0.0%
BOJ35.0
31.2%
Banks,etc.15.2
13.5%
Life and Non-life Insurance,etc.
2.2 2.0%
Public Pensions
0.0 0.0%
Pension Funds
0.0 0.0%
Foreigners59.7
53.3%
Households0.0
0.0%
Others0.0
0.0%
Types The amount of redemption at maturity Scheduled redemption date
Market-held Balance of the Inflation-Indexed Bonds (as of September 30, 2017)
(trillion yen)
Scheduled redemption of JGB at maturity in November, 2017
Note.1: The figures are based on the outstanding JGBs at the end of September, 2017. Note.2: The figures are the scheduled redemption at maturity and may be different from the actual redemption due to Buy-back of JGBs. Note.3: The figures do not include "JGB for Retail Investors". Note.4: If the redemption date coincides with bank holiday, the payment of redemption is carried out on the following business day. Note.5: Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding.
CPI excluding food (excludingalcohilic beverages) and energy
Change from the previous year
Apr.4, 2013BOJ released QQE
4.4
-1.8 -1.6
0.5
4.93.9 2.7
-0.4
4.4
-7.4
-0.5
3.0
4.6
-0.1
0.7
-0.9
2.1 2.0
0.91.6 1.2
2.5
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(%)
Private Demand Public Demand
Foreign Demand Real GDP
Annualized rate of Change from the previous quarter (Seasonally adjusted)
(CY)
2.3
3.2
4.3 3.8
5.4
4.4
5.5
4.1
4.3
1.8
3.3
0.9
2.1
1.1 1.6
-0.0
1.6 2.1
1.7
-1.0 -0.5
0.9
2.0 1.6
4.3
3.9
4.9
3.1
5.9
4.6
5.8
4.1
6.0
4.5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2009
Q120
09Q2
2009
Q320
09Q4
2010
Q120
10Q2
2010
Q320
10Q4
2011
Q120
11Q2
2011
Q320
11Q4
2012
Q120
12Q2
2012
Q320
12Q4
2013
Q120
13Q2
2013
Q320
13Q4
2014
Q120
14Q2
2014
Q320
14Q4
2015
Q120
15Q2
2015
Q320
15Q4
2016
Q120
16Q2
2016
Q320
16Q4
2017
Q120
17Q2
Primary Income Trade BalanceServices Secondary IncomeCurrent Account
Real GDP Growth Rate
Employment Conditions
Prices
Changes in Current Account
Monetary Base Indices of Industrial Production
Total Value of Machinery Orders (Private Sector exc. Volatile orders)
TANKAN (Business Conditions)
Source: Cabinet Office "Quarterly Estimates of GDP"
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “CPI”
Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare “Employment Referrals for General Workers “, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Labour Force Survey”
Source: Ministry of Finance “Balance of Payments"
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry "Indices of Industrial Production”
Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan "Orders Received for Machinery"
(trillion yen)
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL TRENDS
Source: Bank of Japan "Monetary Base"
Source: Bank of Japan "Tankan"
-18-
English Publications on JGBs Frequency URL Debt Management
Message from the Financial Bureau As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/message.htm
About JGBs As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/guide.htm
About the Debt Management Policy As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/about.htm
JGB Issuance Plan As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/plan/index.htm