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Oregon Modeling Improvement Program
An Innovative Approach to Support Public Policy &
Decision-Making
Prepared for the Oregon Modeling Steering CommitteeOctober 20,
2010Presented by Becky Knudson
Oregon Department of TransportationTransportation Planning
Analysis Unit
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PortlandSalemEugeneMedfordBendCorvallisWELCOME TO OREGON3.8 M
population1.8 M employment = MPO
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OMIP OVERVIEWPurpose & strategic elements
Accomplishments
Next steps
Next challenges
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WHAT IS THE OREGON MODELING IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM?
(OMIP)Comprehensive statewide modeling & analysis program
Started by ODOT in 1994
Addresses complex rules & regulations
Multi-agency effort
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MODELING IN THE 1990sModeled air quality conformity, major
project developmentODOT*, 4 MPOs (Metro, LCOG , RVCOG*, MWVCOG*)
and Bend*
New federal & state mandatesClean Air Act Amendments,
National Environmental Policy Act, Transportation Equity Act for
the 21st Century Oregon Transportation Rule, Transportation Growth
Management, Oregon Transportation Plan
Modeling methods outdated & could not address mandates Best
modeling practices, timeliness, decision-making support
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MODELING IN THE 1990s, contd
OMIP provided strategic directionEstablish collaborative working
relationships with good communicationCreate oversight groups for
policy and applicationsImprove transport models, integrate land use
& economicsEstablish best practices & model development
/application guidelinesOMIP Strategic Implementation Plan
(1999)
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OMIP STRATEGIC ELEMENTSTransportation & Land Use Model
Integration Program
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OMIP STRATEGIC ELEMENTSRESOURCESFundingStaff &
EquipmentOUTREACHOMSC & OMUGPeer ReviewTraining &
EducationDEVELOPMENTResearchBest Practices DocumentationModel
DevelopmentIMPLEMENTATIONGuidelines & ProtocolsCase
StudiesDATAHousehold & Activity SurveysFreight DataGIS
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OMIP started a new interactive approach to analysis
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MOVED FROM ALINEAR DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
Policy Question
Technical Analysis
Results
Decision/Action
POLICYTECHNICALTECHNICALPOLICY
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TO AN INTERACTIVE & ITERATIVE DECISION-MAKING
PROCESSPOLICYPOLICY/TECHNICALTECHNICALResultsPolicy
QuestionTechnical AnalysisRefine QuestionTECHNICAL/POLICY
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HOW DOES OMIP HELP OREGON?Address federal and state mandates
Develop & analyze policy optionsMake better investment choices
Provide innovative tools and methods to address pressing
issues:Sustainability and quality communities Greenhouse gas
reduction & least cost planningFoster collaboration to optimize
limited resources (staff, funds)
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Necessity, Who is the Mother of InventionPlato, The Republic
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A LOT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHEDRESOURCES Collaborative
projectsQualified staffShared resources
OUTREACHContinuous International Peer Review panelPeer review of
MPO modelsOMSC active forum for discussion & debateOMUG active
forum for information sharingPartnership with OTREC universities
for research & interns
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OREGON MODELING STEERING COMMITTEEPartnership of federal, state
and local agencies and jurisdictions.TransportationOffice of
Economic Analysis Land Conservation & DevelopmentEnvironmental
QualityEnergyOR Transportation Research & Education
ConsortiumPort of PortlandMetro MWVCOGLCOGRVCOGBend MPOCorvallis
MPOOMSCFHWASTATEMPOS
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A LOT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHEDDEVELOPMENTOR StateWide Integrated
Model (SWIM1 & SWIM2)
5 MPO Jointly Estimated Models in R code (JEMnR)
18 Urban Models in small OR cities (OSUM)
Land Use Scenario DevelopR model (LUSDR)
Greenhouse gas Statewide Transportation Emissions Planning model
(GreenSTEP)
OR Modeling Collaborative (OMC) at PSU to support applied
research
Comprehensive documentation
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A LOT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHEDIMPLEMENTATION
OMIP Strategic Plan, guidelines & best practices
Significant policy issue applications:Brainstorming on
Willamette Valley transportation futures Alternatives analysis for
infrastructure investment decisionsInduced growth analysis for
Newberg-Dundee Bypass EISInfrastructure prioritization for OR
Bridge Deficiency AnalysisLong-range planning - OR Transportation
& OR Freight PlansRogue Valley Regional Problem Solving
StudyGreenhouse gas emissions reduction scenario development
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A LOT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHEDDATA1994-6 MPO & rural OR
household & travel activity surveys2006 pilot for GPS survey
application2009-2012 statewide household & travel activity
survey Freight Commodity Flow Forecasts, freight shipper &
carrier surveys, truck intercept surveysGIS relational database
developmentNew visualization tools
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We met the original OMIP measure of success
BECOME THE WAY OREGON DOES BUSINESS
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NEXT STEPSRESOURCES
Continue multi-agency & jurisdictional cooperation
Develop program with OMC & OTREC universitiesProvide
internsTrain future qualified staff
Work with OMC & OTREC for research funding
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NEXT STEPSOUTREACH
Expand outreach & information program with OMC &
OTREC
Engage private sector in OMC activities
Expand modeling & analysis training to ODOT, MPOs &
others
6th OR Integrated Modeling Symposium in 2012
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NEXT STEPSDEVELOPMENT
Incorporate land use, environmental & least cost planning
capabilities in OR models
Build interactive links among multi-level models
Explore transition to tour-based models
Develop sketch/scenario planning tools
Improve economic & freight modeling
Work with OMC & OTREC universities on applied research
projects
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NEXT STEPSIMPLEMENTATION
Continue modeling for high level policy questions
Expand analysis support for ODOT, cities, counties, other state
agencies
Improve visualization & communication tools
Update guidelines & protocols
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NEXT STEPSDATA
Complete statewide household & travel activity survey &
analysis
Develop center for data storage & access at PSU
Improve freight data
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CONTINUED CHALLENGESCoordination & interaction of technical
& policy people
Develop variety of analysis tools & processes
Obtain good analytical tools Recognize constraints of time,
funding & staff resources
Educate & communicate capabilities & processes for using
analytical tools
Improve representation of economic factors & understand
importance to stakeholders
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CONTINUED CHALLENGES
FundingQualified staffState-of-the-art equipmentResearch &
development for continuous improvementData Evolving public policy
issuesGreenhouse gas emissionsLeast cost
planningSustainabilityPricing
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FOR MORE INFORMATIONOregon Modeling Improvement Program
(OMIP)Bill Upton [email protected] Knudson
[email protected]
Oregon Modeling Steering Committee
(OMSC)http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TPAU/OMSC.shtml
Oregon Modeling Users Group
(OMUG)http://sites.google.com/site/ormodelug/
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Fin
**Background on Oregon - 3 minutesTo provide context, a little
about OregonPopulation of 3.4 million people (year 2000)70% of
population located in Willamette ValleyRefer to graphic - Four MPOs
in Oregon (blue), with 2 more to be designated in 2002
(yellow)Modeling staff is focused mostly in Portland Metro with 22
staff and ODOT with 9 staff. The two mid-Willamette Valley MPOs
have a total of 2.5 staff. ODOT provides all modeling services to
Rogue Valley in southern Oregon.ODOT is developing models for the
two emerging MPOsWe do not have a lot of staff or money, but have a
strong commitment to quality and sustainable communities and we
have worked hard to develop the tools to help us make good
decisions.*When the Program was started, Oregon could not meet
analysis needs for new federal standards, such as the Clean Air Act
Amendments or the Federal Intermodal Surface Transportation
Efficiency Act (ISTEA).
ODOT was being left out of the decision-making process for state
policy because it had nothing to add. It was becoming viewed as the
road and bridge builder for the state instead of a transportation
policy agency.
Followed a five track approach to make modeling useful and
accessible to decision makers, stakeholders and practitioners;
***Historically, we made decisions in a linear fashion.
Define the problem very simply, such as we will have a 2%
increase per year in traffic volumes for 20 years, so how much
additional road capacity do we need to accommodate this
increase?
We analyze the problem, present results, and make a decision.*We
not only need to think in a more holistic manner, but we need an
interactive and more integrated decision-making process, where
questions continue to be refined using good analysis tools to make
the best policy decisions. We now have tools to help us not only
analyze complex issues, but they force us to think in a different
way.*How does the program help ODOT? - 3 minutesIt helps us make
better-informed choices for transportation investmentsBy fostering
collaboration and working together, we make the best and most
efficient use of staff and other resources We are developing tools
to help provide good information on alternatives, possible results
of policy directives, and a way to measure results to address the
Governors quality communities agendaThe OMSC is a technical
advisory committee that is available to assist in making more
effective multi-agency and multi-jurisdictional decision-makingWe
are developing tools that will help Oregon effectively address
federal and state mandates*The Oregon Modeling Steering Committee
operates the same way, with FHWA, key state agencies, and MPOs
working together to address modeling issues and opportunities
*Lastly, we need to start to think differently - more
comprehensively and more integrated across agency and
jurisdictional boundaries.
This needs to become the way we do business.*What next? - 5
minutesWe still have a lot to do:Complete the second generation of
the model to be more sensitive and responsiveBuild interactive link
between the statewide model and local urban and rural modelsExpand
interactive capabilities of urban transportation models to
incorporate economics and land useIncorporate air quality and other
environmental considerationsWe need to educate users to use these
tools to their fullest capability. This includes not only technical
staff to do the modeling and analysis. It also includes
decision-makers and the general public who can rely on models to
ask difficult and complex questions to help make better decisions
on use of public resources.We are talking about developing a North
American and European consortium that will allow us all to benefit
from each other's research and development.*What next? - 5
minutesWe still have a lot to do:Complete the second generation of
the model to be more sensitive and responsiveBuild interactive link
between the statewide model and local urban and rural modelsExpand
interactive capabilities of urban transportation models to
incorporate economics and land useIncorporate air quality and other
environmental considerationsWe need to educate users to use these
tools to their fullest capability. This includes not only technical
staff to do the modeling and analysis. It also includes
decision-makers and the general public who can rely on models to
ask difficult and complex questions to help make better decisions
on use of public resources.We are talking about developing a North
American and European consortium that will allow us all to benefit
from each other's research and development.**