Oregon Forestry Oregon Forestry Where in the World Where in the World are we Going? are we Going? Presented to the Oregon Board of Forestry Presented to the Oregon Board of Forestry July 19, 2002 July 19, 2002 Tillamook, OR Tillamook, OR by by Hal Salwasser Hal Salwasser Dean, College of Forestry Dean, College of Forestry Oregon State University Oregon State University
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Oregon Forestry Where in the World are we Going? Presented to the Oregon Board of Forestry July 19, 2002 Tillamook, OR by Hal Salwasser Dean, College of.
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Oregon ForestryOregon ForestryWhere in the World are we Where in the World are we
Going?Going?
Presented to the Oregon Board of ForestryPresented to the Oregon Board of ForestryJuly 19, 2002July 19, 2002
Tillamook, ORTillamook, ORby by
Hal SalwasserHal SalwasserDean, College of ForestryDean, College of ForestryOregon State UniversityOregon State University
Forest Sustainability FirstForest Sustainability First
Lose the forest, lose all the associated valuesLose the forest, lose all the associated values
WaterWater
Forests are headwaters of the nation: Forests are headwaters of the nation: 1/3 of land area; 2/3 of runoff; 1/3 of land area; 2/3 of runoff;
groundwater recharge; groundwater recharge; best water from any land use best water from any land use (SOER, USFS)(SOER, USFS)
People transform forestsPeople transform forests(and have for >10,000 years)(and have for >10,000 years)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Mill
ion
Acr
esAnnual Forest Trends Annual Forest Trends
1990-20001990-2000
TropicsTropics
Non-tropicsNon-tropics
GlobalGlobal
FAO 2001: country surveys + pan-tropical remote sensingFAO 2001: country surveys + pan-tropical remote sensing
World population growth is World population growth is the driverthe driverBillion people
024681012
Less forest; more people; Less forest; more people; more demandsmore demands
World forest decline:World forest decline: - 20 to 30% since 1600 bp- 20 to 30% since 1600 bp - 2.4% since 1990- 2.4% since 1990
Wood use up 40% since 1960: 1.5 bcm/yrWood use up 40% since 1960: 1.5 bcm/yr Wood use to rise < 66% by 2050: 2 - 2.5 bcmWood use to rise < 66% by 2050: 2 - 2.5 bcm Need for all forest benefits growing as wellNeed for all forest benefits growing as well
WaterWater Biodiversity conservationBiodiversity conservation Carbon storesCarbon stores Recreation, subsistence, cultural usesRecreation, subsistence, cultural uses
~ 25-30% of global industrial wood use crosses ~ 25-30% of global industrial wood use crosses international boundary; affects local pricesinternational boundary; affects local prices
US imports 30-35% of lumber usedUS imports 30-35% of lumber used Forest industries integrating globallyForest industries integrating globally Carbon, wood, biodiversity are global issuesCarbon, wood, biodiversity are global issues US choices impact world’s forests: US choices impact world’s forests:
Import woodImport wood Export jobsExport jobs Import unemploymentImport unemployment Export environmental effectsExport environmental effects Import invasive speciesImport invasive species Store carbonStore carbon
Globalization of forest issuesGlobalization of forest issues
To sustain or restore forest health, To sustain or restore forest health, productivity, and diversity … productivity, and diversity …
We must manage We must manage growthgrowth
And we must manage forests to And we must manage forests to sustain multiple values, meet the sustain multiple values, meet the
needs of people for forest needs of people for forest resources and forest servicesresources and forest services
U.S. in a Global ContextU.S. in a Global Context
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Population
Land Area
Forest Land
Reserved Forest
Timber Inventory
Ind. Wood Production
Ind. Wood Use
Source: USDA Forest Service 2002Source: USDA Forest Service 2002
U.S. Forest OwnershipU.S. Forest Ownership
NIPF48%
NFS20%
Industry9%
Other Public23%
Forests are diverse, will be managed Forests are diverse, will be managed for many different purposesfor many different purposes
It treats each forest differently; approach, It treats each forest differently; approach,
vital signs depend on goals, vital signs depend on goals,
capabilities:capabilities:
A.A. Production Value (PVF)Production Value (PVF)
B.B. Multiple Value (MVF)Multiple Value (MVF)
C.C. Conservation Value (CVF)Conservation Value (CVF)
D.D. Residential Value (RVF)Residential Value (RVF)
Sustainable Forestry is BroadSustainable Forestry is Broad
Goal: Most efficient wood/fiber productionGoal: Most efficient wood/fiber production Challenges:Challenges:
Increase wood yield: 2X to 5X over naturalIncrease wood yield: 2X to 5X over natural Reduce environmental impact, footprintReduce environmental impact, footprint Improve product qualityImprove product quality Produce high return on investmentProduce high return on investment Maintain social license to operateMaintain social license to operate
Much of world’s wood will come from this Much of world’s wood will come from this forest useforest use
A. Production Value ForestA. Production Value Forest
Goal: Meet various landowner objectivesGoal: Meet various landowner objectives
Challenges:Challenges:
Optimize joint productionOptimize joint production
Sustain desired diversity of environmental, Sustain desired diversity of environmental,
economic, community conditions and results, economic, community conditions and results,
Produce multiple benefits at reasonable costsProduce multiple benefits at reasonable costs
B. Multi-Value ForestB. Multi-Value ForestMost of the world’s accessible forest will Most of the world’s accessible forest will
be in integrated managementbe in integrated management
C. Conservation Value ForestC. Conservation Value Forest
Parks, reserves, wilderness, special Parks, reserves, wilderness, special areas for natural, cultural valuesareas for natural, cultural values
Goal: Perpetuate native ecosystems, species, Goal: Perpetuate native ecosystems, species, nature’s processes, cultural heritagenature’s processes, cultural heritage Challenges:Challenges:
Manage people to reduce impactsManage people to reduce impacts Manage forests to restore “naturalness”Manage forests to restore “naturalness” Manage ecosystems to ameliorate invasive Manage ecosystems to ameliorate invasive
species, pollution, vulnerabilitiesspecies, pollution, vulnerabilities Align management actions, costs and Align management actions, costs and benefits for sustainabilitybenefits for sustainability
Goals: Goals: Connect people with forest resourcesConnect people with forest resources Pleasant neighborhoodsPleasant neighborhoods Resource conservationResource conservation Minimize sprawlMinimize sprawl Safety to life and property, riskSafety to life and property, risk Wildlife habitatsWildlife habitats
D. Residential Value ForestD. Residential Value Forest
Global Forests 2000 2050Global Forests 2000 2050
2000:2000: Industrial wood use = ~ 1.5 bcmIndustrial wood use = ~ 1.5 bcm
~ 2 cm/ha/yr ave. yield from natural forests~ 2 cm/ha/yr ave. yield from natural forests
~ 3.9 bil ha: ~ 95% not planted; ~ 5% planted~ 3.9 bil ha: ~ 95% not planted; ~ 5% planted
~ 10% “protected” in nature reserves~ 10% “protected” in nature reserves
Victor and Ausubel 2000; FAO 2001; WWF 2001Victor and Ausubel 2000; FAO 2001; WWF 2001
Global Forests 2000 2050Global Forests 2000 20502050:2050:
Industrial wood use = 2 – 2.5 bcm; Industrial wood use = 2 – 2.5 bcm; + 33 to 66%+ 33 to 66% ~ 5 - 50 cm/ha/yr yield in planted forests~ 5 - 50 cm/ha/yr yield in planted forests Production Value ForestsProduction Value Forests < 10% of total; yields < 10% of total; yields
~ 50 – 70% of industrial wood demand~ 50 – 70% of industrial wood demand Multi-Value ForestsMulti-Value Forests < 40%; yields rest of < 40%; yields rest of
industrial wood demand, other uses/valuesindustrial wood demand, other uses/values Conservation Value ForestsConservation Value Forests for ~ 50% of for ~ 50% of
world’s forests possible due to above world’s forests possible due to above strategiesstrategies
Victor and Ausubel 2000; FAO 2001; WWF 2001Victor and Ausubel 2000; FAO 2001; WWF 2001
Forest Plantations 2000Forest Plantations 2000
Asia62%
Europe17%
No/Cent America10%
So America5%
Africa4%
Oceania2%
Source: FAO 2001Source: FAO 2001
Plantations as % of Total Plantations as % of Total ForestForest
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Asia
Europe
No/Cent America
Oceania
Africa
So America
Source: FAO 2001Source: FAO 2001
Natural Forests 2000Natural Forests 2000
Europe (Russia)27%
So America24%
Africa17%
No/Cent America15%
Asia12%
Oceania5%
Source: FAO 2001Source: FAO 2001
% of Global Reserved % of Global Reserved ForestsForests
Roles for U.S. Forests?Roles for U.S. Forests?25% of global wood supply; ~20% of protected forests25% of global wood supply; ~20% of protected forests Industrial forest: ~ 68 mil ac; ~ 9%
NIPF/Family forest: ~ 363 mil ac; ~ 48%
Other public forest: ~ 170 mil ac; ~ 23%
National Forest: ~ 147 mil ac; ~ 20%
Answers depend on global forces, policy Answers depend on global forces, policy choices made in federal, state, tribal and choices made in federal, state, tribal and
private sectors and on individual private sectors and on individual behaviors (incl. risk attitude)behaviors (incl. risk attitude)
Roles for Oregon Forests?Roles for Oregon Forests?5% of national wood supply; ~33% in IUCN Class i-vi5% of national wood supply; ~33% in IUCN Class i-vi
Industrial forest roles: ~ 5.8 mil ac; ~ 21% Family forest roles: ~ 4.6 mil ac; ~ 16% State forest roles: ~ 0.9 mil ac; ~ 3% Tribal & County forest roles: ~ 0.5 mil ac; ~ 2% Federal forest roles: ~ 16 mil ac; ~ 57%
Answers depend on global forces, policy Answers depend on global forces, policy choices made in federal, state, tribal and choices made in federal, state, tribal and
private sectors and on individual private sectors and on individual behaviors (incl. risk attitude)behaviors (incl. risk attitude)
Policy ChallengesPolicy Challenges Determine roles/policies for stands, units, Determine roles/policies for stands, units,
ownerships re ownerships re sustainability goalssustainability goals
Policies/incentives to blend, nest patterns Policies/incentives to blend, nest patterns
for different roles at landscape scale for different roles at landscape scale
Balance risks, costs, benefits of optionsBalance risks, costs, benefits of options
Set targets for and track indicators of Set targets for and track indicators of
success by role and scalesuccess by role and scale Oregon BenchmarksOregon Benchmarks
Forest managers:Forest managers: SFM, various goals SFM, various goals Producers:Producers: deliver quality, price, value deliver quality, price, value Marketers:Marketers: full disclosure full disclosure Consumers:Consumers: make wise choices make wise choices Teachers:Teachers: be informed, tell full story be informed, tell full story Scientists:Scientists: R&D, inform policy choices R&D, inform policy choices Governments:Governments: set policies, assure equity set policies, assure equity Interest groups:Interest groups: honest advocacy honest advocacy Social contracts:Social contracts: invest for future vitality invest for future vitality
Shared ResponsibilitiesShared Responsibilities
NIPF’s Critical RoleNIPF’s Critical Role
0
50
100
150
Nat.Forest
OtherPublic
Industry NIPF
Million acres by site class(annual growth in cu ft/ac)
1 = >120 2 = 85-120 3 = 50-85 4 = 20-50 5 = 0-20
U.S. Forest Use Class by U.S. Forest Use Class by Owner 1997Owner 1997
0100200300400500600700800
Mil
lio
n A
cres
NFS OtherPublic
Industry NIPF Total U.S.
Forestland Timberland Reserved Other
Source: USDA FS 2001Source: USDA FS 2001
Western Forest Use Class by Western Forest Use Class by Owner 1997Owner 1997
050
100150200250300350400
Mil
lio
n A
cres
NFS OtherPublic
Industry NIPF WesternU.S.
Forestland Timberland Reserved Other
Source: USDA FS 2001Source: USDA FS 2001
Eastern Forest Use Class by Eastern Forest Use Class by Owner 1997Owner 1997
050
100150200250300350400
Mil
lio
n A
cres
NFS OtherPublic
Industry NIPF EasternU.S.
Forestland Timberland Reserved Other
Source: USDA FS 2001Source: USDA FS 2001
Sustain Forests First: keep forestlands in Sustain Forests First: keep forestlands in forest usesforest uses
Give forest sector incentives, knowledge, Give forest sector incentives, knowledge, and tools to sharpen performance on and tools to sharpen performance on goals, stay competitivegoals, stay competitive
Is this a healthy forest?Is this a healthy forest?
Is it sustainable?Is it sustainable?
It all depends on purpose and context
Hardin’s Filters Against FollyHardin’s Filters Against Folly Literacy: words matter -- align words w/ meaningLiteracy: words matter -- align words w/ meaning