Orange County Economic Overview January 2014
Jan 05, 2016
Orange CountyEconomic Overview
January 2014
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Unemployment Rate Comparisons
Source: California EDD
• Orange County’s unemployment has
been under 7 percent since February 2013.
• Unemployment at the county, state, and
national levels has fallen across the board for 2013.
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
30.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
December 2013 Results
Orange County (5.2%) California (7.9%) United States (6.5%)
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Cal State University Fullerton:Business Expectations Index
Source: Cal State University Fullerton
• An index rating over 50 indicates higher
confidence in the OC economy from
executives.
• The Q3 2013 score of 93.9 is the highest rating achieved since
July 2004.
Q1
20
08
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
29.1
37.3
18.1
17.8
15.2
22.7
30.8
48.8 53
.3
65.2
60.6
60
71.4
80.9
70
46.3
77.9
90.7
72.8
70.5 75
91.6 93
.9
85.2 88
.8
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Chapman University: Orange County Manufacturing Composite Employment Index
Source: Chapman University
• An index rating above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing
industry in Orange County.
• Orange County has maintained a
manufacturing index of above 50 for the
past four years.
3rd
20
07
4th
20
07
1st
20
08
2n
d 2
00
83
rd 2
00
84
th 2
00
81
st 2
00
92
nd
20
09
3rd
20
09
4th
20
09
1st
20
10
2n
d 2
01
03
rd 2
01
04
th 2
01
01
st 2
01
12
nd
20
11
3rd
20
11
4th
20
11
1st
20
12
2n
d 2
01
23
rd 2
01
24
th 2
01
21
st 2
01
32
nd
20
13
3rd
20
13
4th
20
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
54.8
52.2
47.0
48.9
45.1
40.6
33.9 40
.3
50.2
50.0
58.9 62
.2
61.7
61.9
60.9 65
.0
59.3
60.9
60.2 65
.9
53.1
54.6
50.0
59.7
61.8
59.1
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Chapman University: California Consumer Sentiment Index
Source: Chapman University
• An index rating above 100 indicates a
positive consumer outlook.
• Consumer sentiment has been above 90 since Q3 2012, but has not surpassed 100 in 2013 for the
state.
Fe
b. '
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20
40
60
80
100
120
66.3
57.6
65.1
66.0
58.2
70.7
69.2
76.3 81
.1
82.7
84.2 90
.5
88.7
89.7
88.2
80.6
89.8
89.0 93
.4
94.9 99
.7
93.9 98
.9
97.5
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Chapman University: Current and Future Consumer Sentiment
Index
Source: Chapman University
• An index above 100 indicates a positive
outlook for current or future conditions in
Orange County.
• Though the future conditions index fell
below 100 in Q3 2013, the current
conditions index has been trending upward
since its last significant low in Q4
2011.
1st
20
08
2n
d 2
00
8
3rd
20
08
4th
20
08
1st
20
09
2n
d 2
00
9
3rd
20
09
4th
20
09
1st
20
10
2n
d 2
01
0
3rd
20
10
4th
20
10
1st
20
11
2n
d 2
01
1
3rd
20
11
4th
20
11
1st
20
12
2n
d 2
01
2
3rd
20
12
4th
20
12
1st
20
13
2n
d 2
01
3
3rd
20
13
4th
20
13
20
40
60
80
100
120
46.4
42.1
40.0
34.7
33.8
40.7
39.6
53.8 60
.3 66.0 71
.9 76.9 80
.1
77.7
67.1
62.6
81.3
80.9 84
.2
83.7
92.3
91.0
100.
4
96.0
80.8
76.3
94.4
91.6
80.1
99.5
97.7
99.7
97.7
105.
1
100.
1 109.
1
100.
1
104.
7
106.
8
97.6
106.
9
93.6
105.
0
100.
9 108.
1
101.
4
99.8
98.5
Current Conditions Future Conditions
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Chapman University: California Employment Indicator Index
Source: Chapman University
• Variable used in this index include lagged real GDP, exports,
construction spending, and the
S&P 500.
• State employment is relatively improving
for Q4 2013.
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Chapman University: Employment Indicator Index & Payroll
Employment
Source: Chapman University
• This index demonstrates the
Employment Index’s correlation with
payroll employment for the state.
• Currently, payroll employment is
appreciating in-line and slightly ahead of
the Employment Index.
Industry and Occupation Trends
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Orange County Monthly Industry Trends, 2007-2013
Source: California EDD
Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13
Mining and Logging 400 500 500 500 500 500 400
Construction 76,000 77,700 80,400 82,600 83,300 82,700 84,700
Durable Goods 117,400 117,200 117,500 117,300 118,400 119,000 119,300
Nondurable Goods 43,000 44,000 43,800 43,500 42,900 43,600 43,000
Wholesale Trade 78,900 79,300 79,900 79,100 80,000 80,400 80,900
Retail Trade 139,400 140,400 140,200 139,900 141,800 148,800 149,900
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 27,600 27,500 27,700 27,700 27,600 27,800 28,300
Information 24,400 24,400 24,400 24,400 24,400 24,600 24,700
Financial Activities 113,800 114,500 115,100 114,500 114,400 113,100 113,600
Professional & Business Services 257,200 257,700 262,200 262,000 266,600 266,800 267,900
Educational & Health Services 168,700 164,900 164,700 168,300 169,300 170,500 170,000
Leisure & Hospitality 189,700 190,900 192,100 190,500 189,300 187,900 187,600
Other Services 45,300 45,800 45,000 44,400 45,000 44,900 44,800
Government 152,100 139,600 134,300 138,700 144,500 146,900 146,000
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Average Salaries of Fastest Growing Occupations
By Absolute Job Growth
Source: California EDD
• Registered Nurses lead in salaries by a
wide margin, with Office Clerks a distant
second place.
Retail Salespersons
Waiters and Waitresses
Personal Care Aides
Food Preparation and Serving WorkersCashiers
Landscaping / Groundskeeping
Office Clerks, G
eneral
Cooks, Restaurant
Registered Nurses
Janitors and Cleaners
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
Projected Growth (2010-2020) Median Annual Salary, 2013
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Average Salaries of Fastest Growing Occupations
By Percent Job Growth
Source: California EDD
• Biomedical Engineers lead both
in terms of employment growth
and earning potential.
• Other technical professions projected
to grow include Logisticians and
Audiologists.
Biomedical Engineers
Home Health Aides
Personal Care Aides
Logisticians
Health Educators
Physical Therapist Assistants
Audiologists
Physical Therapist Aides
Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners
Conservation Scientists
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Projected Growth (2010-2020) Median Annual Salary, 2013
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Industry Cluster Drivers Fast Facts
• Orange County’s Cross-Cutting Clusters: • International Trade• Creativity• Information Technology• Green Technology
• Three Largest Clusters by Employment (2012): • Tourism • Manufacturing• Hotels and Restaurants
• Two Greatest Exports by Industry Sector (2011): • Computer & Electronic Products• Transportation Equipment
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Orange County Cluster Employment, 2008-2012
Source: OCBC analysis of California Employment Development Department QCEW dataset
• Tourism, Manufacturing, Hospitality, and
Healthcare have all seen significant
recovery since the recession.
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Orange County Cross-Cutting Cluster Employment, 2012
Sources: OCBC Analysis of California EDD Data, OTIS Report, Next10, Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation
• The four cross-cutting clusters are
key economic drivers for Orange County.
• Though the vast majority of industries have an International
Trade component, Creativity and
Information Technology have their
greatest impact on Business Services,
one of Orange County’s most
important clusters for innovation.
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Average Salaries Within Orange County’s Selected Industry Drivers, 2012
Source: OCBC analysis of California Employment Development Department data, Otis Report, Next10, and
Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation
• Information Technology salaries
fell from 2011 to 2012, but are still the
highest overall among compared
clusters.
• Creativity experienced the
largest year-over-year increase in annual average
salaries.
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Orange County Median Home Prices 2003-2013
Source: DataQuick News
• December 2013 - $570,000
• The median home price hit its five-year high in December
2013, after a year of near-constant appreciation.
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Orange County Total Housing Permits Per Month
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, CenStats
• November 2013 – 542
• Building activity has picked up
considerable steam through 2013, with
July 2013 marking a five-year high for building permits.
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8Ju
l-0
8O
ct-0
8Ja
n-0
9A
pr-
09
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0Ju
l-1
0O
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0Ja
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1A
pr-
11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
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2Ju
l-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-1
3A
pr-
13
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Orange County New Car and Light Truck Registrations
Source: Orange County Auto Dealers Association
• Registrations have been on the rise since
January 2012, and have maintained relatively steady
increases through 2013.
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8Ju
l-0
8O
ct-0
8Ja
n-0
9A
pr-
09
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0Ju
l-1
0O
ct-1
0Ja
n-1
1A
pr-
11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2Ju
l-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-1
3A
pr-
13
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Cars Light Trucks
Orange County Industry Cluster
Detailed Employment Summaries
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Overview
• Employment Clusters Reviewed:• Business & Professional Services• Energy & Environmental• FIRE (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate)• Construction• Healthcare• Information Technology• Transportation & Logistics• Manufacturing• Biotechnology• Hospitality
• Data Source: Econovue, 2013
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Business & Professional Services
CitiesTotal Employment
Irvine 54,630
Santa Ana 37,642
Costa Mesa 31,483
Anaheim 29,924
Newport Beach 22,323
Orange 22,149
Huntington Beach 18,132
Garden Grove 11,311
Tustin 11,200
Fullerton 10,273
CitiesEmployment Concentration
Villa Park 42.6%
Costa Mesa 42.3%
Aliso Viejo 38.7%
Tustin 35.5%
Laguna Hills 35.0%
Mission Viejo 34.4%
Laguna Beach 34.1%
Santa Ana 33.9%
Yorba Linda 33.8%
La Habra 32.4%
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
CitiesTotal Employment
Irvine 27,136
Newport Beach 16,633
Santa Ana 12,958
Anaheim 9,456
Orange 7,695
Costa Mesa 6,967
Huntington Beach 6,391
Brea 4,911
Fullerton 3,636
Tustin 3,613
CitiesEmployment Concentration
Laguna Woods 48.2%
Newport Beach 21.9%
Cypress 20.4%
Villa Park 16.2%
Laguna Beach 15.6%
Aliso Viejo 14.6%
Brea 14.5%
Mission Viejo 13.7%
Irvine 13.7%
La Palma 13.3%
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Manufacturing
CitiesTotal Employment
Irvine 48,456
Anaheim 29,032
Santa Ana 23,599
Huntington Beach 17,465
Orange 9,324
Garden Grove 9,234
Lake Forest 9,103
Buena Park 8,249
Fullerton 7,852
Costa Mesa 7,457
CitiesEmployment Concentration
Buena Park 33.2%
Seal Beach 30.2%
Lake Forest 27.3%
Huntington Beach 26.6%
Irvine 24.5%
Anaheim 23.2%
Los Alamitos 23.2%
Garden Grove 22.3%
Santa Ana 21.2%
Brea 21.0%
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Healthcare
CitiesTotal Employment
Orange 21,905
Newport Beach 13,742
Santa Ana 13,065
Irvine 11,473
Anaheim 11,075
Fullerton 9,435
Costa Mesa 8,068
Huntington Beach 6,810
Mission Viejo 6,209
Fountain Valley 5,999
CitiesEmployment Concentration
Fountain Valley 29.3%
Orange 25.6%
Mission Viejo 23.7%
Laguna Woods 23.0%
Fullerton 22.9%
Laguna Hills 21.6%
La Palma 19.4%
Newport Beach 18.1%
Villa Park 17.5%
Los Alamitos 16.5%
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Hospitality
CitiesTotal Employment
Anaheim 18,064
Irvine 12,846
Newport Beach 9,695
Santa Ana 7,563
Costa Mesa 7,412
Huntington Beach 7,282
Orange 6,211
Buena Park 4,497
Fullerton 4,143
Garden Grove 3,950
CitiesEmployment Concentration
Laguna Beach 23.0%
Buena Park 18.1%
La Habra 14.6%
Anaheim 14.5%
Newport Beach 12.8%
Seal Beach 11.9%
Stanton 11.8%
Mission Viejo 11.7%
La Palma 11.7%
Cypress 11.7%
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Construction
CitiesTotal Employment
Anaheim 16,176
Orange 10,832
Irvine 10,091
Costa Mesa 6,959
Santa Ana 6,548
Huntington Beach 5,153
Brea 3,769
Newport Beach 3,722
Garden Grove 3,141
Fullerton 2,696
CitiesEmployment Concentration
Placentia 17.6%
Stanton 15.1%
Anaheim 13.0%
Orange 12.6%
Los Alamitos 12.6%
Yorba Linda 11.3%
Brea 11.1%
La Habra 10.1%
Costa Mesa 9.4%
Villa Park 8.9%
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL
Information Technology
CitiesTotal Employment
Irvine 8,363
Santa Ana 4,493
Anaheim 3,308
Newport Beach 1,903
Tustin 1,734
Orange 1,605
Costa Mesa 1,601
Brea 1,450
Huntington Beach 1,385
Garden Grove 999
CitiesEmployment Concentration
La Palma 8.5%
Tustin 5.5%
Los Alamitos 5.4%
Brea 4.3%
Cypress 4.2%
Irvine 4.2%
Santa Ana 4.0%
Aliso Viejo 3.5%
Westminster 3.4%
Buena Park 3.0%