1 Optimizing Flexibility and Value in California’s Water System Jay R. Lund Richard E. Howitt Marion W. Jenkins Stacy K. Tanaka Civil and Environmental Engineering Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California, Davis http://cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/ faculty/lund/CALVIN/
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Optimizing Flexibility and Value in California’s Water System
Optimizing Flexibility and Value in California’s Water System. Jay R. Lund Richard E. Howitt Marion W. Jenkins Stacy K. Tanaka Civil and Environmental Engineering Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California, Davis. http://cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/lund/CALVIN/. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Optimizing Flexibility and Value in California’s Water
SystemJay R. Lund
Richard E. Howitt
Marion W. Jenkins
Stacy K. TanakaCivil and Environmental Engineering
Agricultural and Resource Economics
University of California, Davis
http://cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/lund/CALVIN/
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Real work done byDr. Andrew J. Draper Dr. Kenneth W. Kirby
Matthew D. Davis Kristen B. Ward
Brad D. Newlin Stacy Tanaka
Brian J. Van Lienden Randy Ritzema
Siwa M. Msangi Guilherme Marques
Pia M. Grimes Dr. Arnaud Reynaud
Jennifer L. Cordua Mark Leu
Matthew Ellis Tingju Zhu
Inês Ferreira Sarah Null
3
Funded by• CALFED Bay Delta Program
• State of California Resources Agency
• National Science Foundation
• US Environmental Protection Agency
• California Energy Commission
• US Bureau of Reclamation
• Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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Thanks for many things
We had a lot of help.
• Advisory Committee of ten, Chaired by Anthony Saracino
• Diverse staff of DWR, USBR, MWDSC, SKS Inc., USACE HEC, EBMUD, CCWD, USACE, SDCWA, SCWA, SWC, and others.
• Varied providers of ideas, data, and support.
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OverviewPart I – Assembling the Water Puzzle
• Motivation
• What is the CALVIN model?
• Approach and Data
Part II - CALVIN Results
4) Policy Alternatives
5) Results
6) Conclusions, Implications and Future
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Motivation for Project
• California’s water system is huge and complex
• Supplies, demands, return flows, and reuse
• Surface water and groundwater
• Controversial and economically important
• Major changes are being considered
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Motivation for Project
• Can we better understand this system?
• How could system management be improved?
• How much would changes benefit users?
• How much would users be willing to pay for:
– more water
– changes in facilities & policies?
These are not “back of the envelope” calculations.
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Themes1. Economic “scarcity” is a useful indicator of
good water management performance.
2. Integrated management of water resources, facilities, and demands can improve performance, esp. at regional scales.
3. The entire range of hydrologic events is important, not just “average” and “drought” years.
4. Optimization, databases, and newer methods, data, and software support more transparent and efficient management.
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What is Scarcity?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 2 4 6 8 10
Delivery
Total Value
0
Scarcity
D M
ScarcityCost
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What is CALVIN?
• Economic-engineering optimization model
– Economic Values for Agricultural & Urban Uses
– Flow Constraints for Environmental Uses
• Prescribes monthly system operation over the historical hydrology
• Entire inter-tied California water system
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What is Optimization?
Finding the “best” decisions within constraints.
• “Best” based on estimated performance.
• Decision options are limited by physical and policy constraints.
• Software searches available decisions for the “best” ones.
Optimization can identify promising solutions.
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Decisions: Water operations and allocations
Find “best” performance: Maximize net benefits over historic hydrology
(Minimize economic losses & costs)
Limited by: (1) Water balance (2) Flow and storage capacities (3) Minimum flows
CALVIN Optimization – In Words
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Approacha) Develop schematic of sources, facilities, &
demands.
b) Develop economic values for agricultural & urban water use for 2020 land use and population.
c) Identify minimum environmental flows.
d) Reconcile estimates of 1922-1993 historical inflows.
e) Develop documentation and databases for more transparent and flexible statewide analysis.
f) Combine this information in an optimization model.
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Approach (continued)g) Three policy alternatives:
1) Base Case
– current operation and allocation policies
2) Five Regional Optimizations/Water Markets
– current import and export levels
– economically driven decisions
3) Statewide Optimization/Water Market
h) Interpret results.
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Model Schematic - North
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Model Schematic - South
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CALVIN’s Demand Coverage
ReservoirsNot in CALVINUpper Sacramento ValleyLower Sacramento Valley & DeltaSan Joaquin and Bay AreaTulare BasinSouthern California
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Economic Values for Water
• Agricultural: Production model SWAP
• Urban: Based on price elasticities of demand
• Operating Costs
• Environmental: Use constraints instead of economic values
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4
8
911
16
12
1013
14
17
6
7
5
1
2
3
19
21
1518
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Coachella Valley
SACRAMENTO VALLEY REGIONS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGIONS
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY REGIONS
Imperial Valley
Palo Verde
SWAP Model Regions
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Agricultural Crop Descriptions
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Tomato Production-Yolo County
WaterLand
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1 1.5 2 2.5
AW/ETAW
$/A
cre
/Ye
ar
Efficiency-Cost Trade-offs: Orchards Sacramento Valley
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Agricultural Water Use Values
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Deliveries (taf)
Be
nef
its
($
00
0)
March
AugustJune
July
May
April
September
October0
1,000
2,000
3,000
5 10 15
OctoberFebruary
January
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Urban Water Use Values
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Deliveries (taf)
Pen
alty
($0
00)
Winter
SummerSpring
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Operating Costs
• Fixed head pumping– Energy costs– Maintenance costs
• Groundwater recharge basins
• Wastewater reuse treatment
• Fixed head hydropower
• Urban water quality costs
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Environmental Constraints
• Minimum instream flows
• Rivers (e.g., Trinity, Sacramento, American, Feather, San Joaquin, San Joaquin tributaries)
• Lakes (Mono Lake, Owens Lake)
• Delta outflows
• Wildlife refuge deliveries in Central Valley
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Hydrology Surface & Groundwater
1921 - 1993 historical inflows
• Monthly flows
• Represents the wide range of water availability over 72 years.
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Data Flow for the CALVIN Model
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Database and Interface• Tsunami of data for a controversial system
– Political need for transparent analysis
– Practical need for efficient data management
• Databases central for modeling & management
• Metadata and documentation
• Database & study management software
Systematic data management is needed for transparency and informed decision-making.
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CALVIN’s Innovations
1) Statewide model
2) Groundwater and Surface Water
3) Supply and Demand integration
4) Optimization model
5) Economic perspective and values
6) Data - model management
7) Supply & demand data checking
8) Integrated management options
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Part IICALVIN Results & Policy Conclusions
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Policy Alternatives1) Base Case
• Current operating and allocation policies
2) Regional Optimization Case (5 regions)• Current inter-regional flows• Flexible operations within each region• 5 Regional water markets
3) Statewide Optimization Case• Statewide water market
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Some Results
• Water Scarcity & Economic Performance
• Willingness to pay and Import Values
• Costs of Environmental Flows
• Economic Value of Facility Changes
• Conjunctive Use
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Total Costs by RegionAverage Total Cost ($M/yr)
BC RWM SWM Upper Sacramento Valley 35 34 29
Lower Sacramento & Delta
212 166 166
San Joaquin and Bay Area
394 358 333
Tulare Lake Basin 453 424 417 Southern California 3074 1855 1838
TOTAL 4169 2838 2783
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Scarcity by Region Average Scarcity (taf/yr) Average Scarcity Cost ($M/yr)
Region BC* RWM* SWM* BC RWM SWM Upper Sacramento Valley 144 157 0 7 5 0 Lower Sacramento & Delta 27 1 1 36 1 1 San Joaquin and Bay Area 16 0 0 15 0 0
Tulare Lake Basin 274 322 33 37 19 2 Southern California 1132 929 857 1501 255 197
TOTAL 1594 1409 890 1596 279 200 Agriculture Only
Upper Sacramento Valley 144 157 0 7 5 0 Lower Sacramento & Delta 8 0 0 0 0 0 San Joaquin and Bay Area 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tulare Lake Basin 232 322 30 19 18 1 Southern California 309 703 703 6 28 28 Total Agriculture 693 1182 733 32 51 29
Urban Only Upper Sacramento Valley 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lower Sacramento & Delta 19 1 1 36 1 1 San Joaquin and Bay Area 16 0 0 15 0 0
Tulare Lake Basin 42 0 2 18 0 1 Southern California 823 227 154 1495 227 169
Total Urban 901 227 157 1564 227 170
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Agricultural Scarcity Cost Changes by Region - SWM