OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance Electromobility – End of Hype or Reality ? ABB Robotics – Customer Days in Mainz Peter Gresch – June 19, 2013
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Electromobility – End of Hype or Reality ?
ABB Robotics – Customer Days in Mainz
Peter Gresch – June 19, 2013
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Agenda
Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including Electric Vehicles
Electromobility in Germany including E-Bikes/-Pedelecs-/Scooters
Outlook E-Mobility 2020
Opportunities for Electronics Business in E-Mobility
International Pilot Project in Berlin
2
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
New (Light) Vehicle Sales Worldwide 1996 -> 2012
Calendar Year 2012: European Sales were „flat to negative“ due to (Southern) European Crisis Global New Car Sales grew by 4% to Record Production of about 80 Mio. Cars
16.5 Mio. 12.2 Mio.
22.2 Mio. 17.8 Mio.
18.8 Mio.
= 34 Mio.
3
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Production Passenger Cars and Light Trucks from 2011-2016
4
• (Comfort) Innovations almost always Go from Luxury to Mid to Small • Legal or „Mandatory“ Requirements (CO2, Immobilizer, EuroNCAP, ESP, Tire
Pressure Monitoring in US, …) drive faster developments and implementations
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Change in Vehicle Production Propulsion Systems
5
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Agenda
Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including Electric Vehicles
Electromobility in Germany including E-Bikes/-Pedelecs-/Scooters
Outlook E-Mobility 2020
Opportunities for Electronics Business in E-Mobility
International Pilot Project in Berlin
6
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
E-Vehicles – New Vehicle Registrations Jan - Jul 2012 / Jan – Nov 2012
7
Opel Ampera – 629 Nissan Leaf – 269 Citroën C-Zero – 256 Peugeot iOn – 200 smart fortwo electric drive – 131 Mercedes A-Klasse E-Cell – 623 Mitsubishi i-MiEV – 47 Tesla Roadster – 44 VW Golf Blue-e-Motion – 32 Total January - July 2012: 2.231 Total Jan – Dec 2011: Approx. 2000 Battery Electric Vehicles, 2012 = 2-3 times as in 2011
Opel Ampera: Approx 6.000 vehicles sold = Nr. 1 in Europe with Market Share of 22% Nr. 1 in Netherlands due to high (28g/km CO2) emmision taxes
The German Automotive Industry has announced 14-16 new vehicle launches until end of 2014
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
E-Vehicles – Market Germany Not only 4-Wheelers
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OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Source: ZVEI Studie Elektromobilität 2012 * (Natural) Gas missing
9
Evolution of Powertrains*
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Electric Drivetrains - Usage Profiles
• Micro-Hybrids become „Standard“ to meet CO2 Requirements • Mild-Hybrids increasing • Plug-In Hybrids will be the dominating E-Powertrain for the next years due to „Range
Advantage“ 10
Source: ZVEI
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
E-Mobility - Growing Opportunities for Public Transportation / China
11
Example: DC Charging for Electric Utility Vehicles Target: BEV and PHEV (15 kWh) - 500.000 Cars in 2015 - 2.000.000 Cars in 2020 Busses (200 kWh) - Hybrid > 12.000 - E-Busses > 3.000 2012: • 27.000 EVs • 200.000.000 E-Pedelecs/Bikes 25 Cities -> 12.000 Proto/Test EVs e.g. Jianghuai 2010-12 With 1.600 E-Cars
Source: Phoenix Contact
Different technologies e.g. DC (fast) charging for electric utility vehicles – implementation for China ! Current up to 400 A Voltage up to 750 V
DC Tolerance
compensation for the plug-in process
© ABB Group June 25, 2013 | Slide 12
Project Estonia: Country wide network “Elmo” ABB awarded Europe’s largest EV infrastructure project
ABB awarded Europe’s largest ever EV infrastructure deployment
Nationwide network: every main road in Estonia will have a fast charger approximately every 50 km
Opened on 20/02/2013
200 DC + AC combined fast chargers 507 AC chargers at office locations Turnkey project & network services
Payment systems Membership model, RFiD SMS payments Smartphone payments Automated acces via phone E-wallet payments
© ABB Group June 25, 2013 | Slide 13
FastNed & ABB to roll out connected DC fast chargers Country wide network throughout Netherlands
Announcement on 03/06/2013
FastNed & ABB will roll out a network of Terra DC fast throughout the Netherlands
Fully commercially driven business model present.
Multiple chargers per site (201 locations)
Network supported by ABB’s remote management, remote assistance and local Dutch ABB service team
Cloud based network connections to FastNed’s Driver Care Center
Connection to Third Party Backoffice via OCPP
© ABB Group June 25, 2013 | Slide 14
Highway Segment DC - fast charging in 15 – 30 minutes Combo / Multi-standard chargers
Terra 53 CJG DC + AC Highway Charger 50kW DC CCS 50 kW DC
CHAdeMO 22kW AC 15-30 min.
Jul 2013
Nov 2013
Dec 2013
Terra 53 CJ DC Highway Charger 50kW DC CCS 50 kW DC
CHAdeMO
15-30 min.
Terra 53 CT DC + AC Highway Charger 50kW DC CCS 22kW AC
15-30 min.
Terra 53 C DC Highway Charger 50kW DC CCS
15-30 min.
Nov 2013
© ABB Group June 25, 2013 | Slide 15
Terra SC Duo DC + AC Commercial Charger
20kW DC
CHAdeMO
22kW AC
30-120 min.
Terra SC DC Commercial Charger
• 20kW DC
CHAdeMO
30-120 min
Commercial and Office Segment DC fast charging in 30 – 120 minutes
Terra SC DC Commercial Charger
20kW DC CCS
30-120 min.
Target October
2013
Terra SC Duo DC + AC Commercial Charger
20kW DC CCS
22kW AC
30-120 min.
Target October
2013
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
E-Vehicles – Market Germany National Platform E-Mobility
16
Target of the German Government are 1 Mio. Electric vehicles (BEV + PHEV)
until 2020 on German streets
The NPE consist of the following 7 company and business overlapping working groups which meet in regular intervals and produce reports and guidance for further proceedings: Drivetrain Technology Battery Technology Charging Infrastructure and
Powernet Integration Norms, Standardisation and
Certification Materials and Recycling Talent and Qualification General Conditions
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Agenda
Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including Electric Vehicles
Electromobility in Germany including E-Bikes/-Pedelecs-/Scooters
Outlook E-Mobility 2020
Opportunities for Electronics Business in E-Mobility
International Pilot Project in Berlin
17
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
German “Showcases” Electromobility
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Schaufenster-Regionen
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Electromobility in Berlin and Brandenburg today
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Berlin-Brandenburg hosts more practical projects than any other city in Germany.
More than 150 projects in our region, thereof
27 on-going projects
24 already closed projects
24 currently requested grant-projects
31 planned central projects in the showcase 48 projects in preparation
With about 500 electric cars and trucks in fleets and private the highest amount of automotives in Germany
In addition a high unknown number of Pedelecs and eScooter
220 public charging points – the highest number in Germany by far, in addition a high, unknown number of private charging points
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Berlin – The “hot spot” for Carsharing
20
In Berlin Carsharing was founded and developed up to series maturity
Berlin is “the place to be“ for Carsharing in the whole of Europe
Allready more than ten provider with many of them adding electric vehicles to their fleets
Multicity (photo) operates a completely electric driving fleet of over 100 Evs (started in August 2012)
Further famous provider with growing EV fleets: car2go, drive now und Flinkster (by DB)
From 150 to over 800 Charging Stations by the end of 2014
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
International Showcase for Electromobility in Berlin
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Keyfacts: • Running time: November 2012 until end of 2015
• 31 projects with a total volume of approx. 100 million Euros, with more than 150 partners
• The showcase highlights projects in four focal areas of application (Driving, Storing, Charching&Parking, Connecting)
Coordinated by eMO: www.emo-berlin.de/en/
STORING (Smart Grid)
CONNECTING (Nexus)
DRIVING (Mobility)
CHARGING & PARKING
(Infrastructure)
Vehicles Energy
Transport
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Agenda
Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including Electric Vehicles
Electromobility in Germany including E-Bikes/-Pedelecs-/Scooters
Outlook E-Mobility 2020
Opportunities for Electronics Business in E-Mobility
International Pilot Project in Berlin
22
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Intermittent Wipers
Electronic Ignition
Electronic- Controlled
Timing Advance Electronic Fuel
Injection Automatic Air
Conditioning Control
Drive Computer Power Steering
Antilock Braking System
Suspension
Navigations System
Using Vehicle In- formation and
Communication Buses
Four-Wheel Drive Four-Wheel
Steering Distance Interval
Control Systems Electronic Com-
bustion Control Electronic Value
Time Control Per-Cylinder Knock Control
Keyless Entry
Satellite Radio, Emergency
Services Tire Pressure
Monitoring Systems
Side- and Rear- View Opto- electronics Anti-Roll
Systems LED Lighting
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Elec
tron
ics
Com
plex
ity
Source: IC Insights
Innovation Driver Electronics in the Automobile
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Ante
il am
Kfz
-Pro
dukt
ions
wer
t
Elektronik
Halbleiter
Electronics and Semiconductors as part of the Vehicle Production Value
Source: Mikroelektronik
Trendanalyse 2012
23
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Outlook Electronics Content in (Battery) Electric Vehicles
The Battery is the „dominating“ factor
24
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Power Electronics for Electric Vehicles, Plug-In and Full Hybrids
Cost Semiconductors in VW Golf „Class“ = 300 $ US Cost Semiconductors in E-Golf „Class“ > 660 $ US
25
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Semiconductor Demand per System 2011-2016
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OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Vehicle Production and Automobile Semiconductor Demand
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OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
E/E Growth Drivers
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Trends in Automobile E/E 1. CO2-Reduction
2. Electrification of the Drivetrain
3. Electrification of Auxiliaries (with more Sensors and Actuators) 4. Introduction of 48V-Boardnet
5. Connectivity – Also in the car „Always ON“. New Car IT including operating concepts 6. (Active) Vehicle Safety, Autonomomous Driving
7. No compromising in Comfort (and Safety) features 8. Globalisation („World Car“)
Consequences The dominant development goal, particularly in Europe. Strong regulations drive engine downsizing, light weight, board net control of ECUs, … Hybrid- and E-Cars push for extensive usage of power electronics (Power)Steering, Heating/Cooling, … Up to 50 Auxiliaries in one vehicle Next Gen. Vehicles at least at some German OEMs The second important challenge: How to connect the car with the internet comfortable and secure? Which operating concepts (HMIs)? Which displays? … (Active)Driver Assistance systems are breaking into the compact class. With stable internet access even more functions are feasible... Infotainment, Climate Control, Innovative Lighting, Power Windows, Comfortable Seats, …= „Standard“ Regional differences to be considered „smartly“
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Agenda
Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including Electric Vehicles
Electromobility in Germany including E-Bikes/-Pedelecs-/Scooters
Outlook E-Mobility 2020
Opportunities for Electronics Business in E-Mobility
International Pilot Project in Berlin
29
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Challenges of the Automobile Industry
„Green“ Traffic – CO2 free
Driving, Enviroment
Urbanisation-Mega Cities
Generation Communication
Individuality: Increase of Vehicle- and Powertrain Portfolio
Comfort, Safety Weight Constant Time
and Cost Pressure
(Western) Automobile
Industry
Demography
International Competition
30
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Global Market Development for Electric Vehicles, Plug-In and Full Hybrids until 2019
31
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
ZVEI Study „E-Mobilität 2012“: Large Volumes for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles already in 2020 ?!
32
Market Development Powertrain 2010 - 2020 - 2030
Electric Vehicle(s) will reach in 2030 only a market share of 27 % (currently Hybrid Vehicles have a global market share of 2 %)
Global Market Volume is estimated for 2030 of over 450 Bill. Euro (Source: McKinsey); 420.000 new jobs could develop
Toyota just sold their 5th Mill. Hybrid Vehicle – Japan every 5th car has an Electric Drivetrain
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Outlook – Major Technical Challenges
(Two) Major Technical Challenges: 1. Needs for Rare Earth Magnets for
better performance and smaller packages
2. Affordable Battery/Cell Technology for enlarged Capacity
33
OptE GP Consulting Optimize E Global Performance
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013
Electromobility – Status and Outlook
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• Electrified Powertrains in „transportation“ are growing e.g. Plug-In Hybrids
• Especially true for „muscle driven“ two-wheelers (E-Bikes, E-Pedelecs, …)
• E-Drives for car fleets, public transportation, … have significant market potential
• Largest driver is not only pressure on CO2-Reduction, also „smog free“ in large cities, traffic noise reduction and (more) variable mobility concepts
• Europe wants to generate a leading market and play a dominant industry and market position – But in Japan every 5th new vehicle is already „Electrical“
− High cost (battery, …) limits larger market penetration (in Germany 2012 < 6.000 E-Vehicles were sold)
− Various big industriy sectors such as Automobile, Infrastructure, Energy Providers, … have to „find each other“ in working together successfully
− High additional infrastructure investments are needed for charging, billing, … Business Cases ???
− The key markets (Japan, US, France, China, Germany) favor different concepts and incentive programs to lobby „their markets and their companies“
− Development of norms and standards across country/continent borders is a major challenge e.g. for charging systems, …