Prof. Anatoly Zolotukhin OPPORTUNITIES for Oil and Gas Resources Development in the Arctic Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas University of Stavanger International Winter School 12-16 March 2018 Arkhangelsk Higher School of Energy, Oil and Gas
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OPPORTUNITIES - narfu.ru · Resource base Tight gas: 16 112 TCF = 456 TCM CBM: 9 050 TCF = 256 TCM Gas hydrates: up to 530 000 TCF = 15 000 TCM Total (resource base): 15700 TCM (15.7
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Prof. Anatoly Zolotukhin
OPPORTUNITIES
for Oil and Gas Resources Development in the Arctic
It is believed that oil is referred to as a non-renewable energy resource. Proven oil reserves are ca. 239 BTO (June 2016) (1700 Bbo), unexplored resources are estimated to be 42-208 BTO (300-1500 Bbo).
World proven reserves at the beginning of 1973 were estimated to be 80 BTO (570 Bbo). It the past explored reserves were growing as the oil consumption – during the last 40 years it has grown from 20,0 to 35 Bbo per annum).
Starting from 1984 annual oil production exceeds explored volumes.Global oil production in 2017 amounted to ca. 4,55 BTO per annum (34 Bbo/year).
With current rate of production the explored oil is enough for ca. 50 years< and unexplored – for additional 10-50 years.
6
Global Oil & Gas Reserves
OilBT
GasTn m3
GasBTOE
Oil & GasBTOE
239.0 186.9 168.3 407.4
Source: BP Statistical review, 2016
Global Oil and Gas Reserves
7
March 5, 2018 8
Concept of uncertainty in oil and gas resources estimate90%
50%
10%
P10P50P90
Resource
Pro
bab
ility
/ C
han
ce
Р90 – proven reserves
Global Oil & Gas Reserves – probabilistic approach
Global oil reserves
0,9
1
1,1
1,2
1,5
1,7
1,7
2
2,2
3,4
3,7
4,9
5,4
5,5
9
11,5
13
14
15,5
18,9
36,3
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0
Sudan
Azerbaijan
Norway
Angola
Algeria
Brasil
Mexico
Qatar
China
Canada
USA
Nigeria
Libya
Kazakhstan
Russia
Venezuela
UAE
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Billio
n t
on
es
9
Global oil reserves (Р90) at 2008
05.03.2018
Global Oil Reserves
1005.03.2018
Total for 20 countries: 229,3 BT(96% global oil reserves)
Global Oil Reserves
1105.03.2018
Global Gas Reserves
Russia – 1st place
20 countries total: 160,2 BTOE(96% global gas reserves)
05.03.2018 12
Global oil and gas reserves (Р90) at 2008
Global Oil and Gas Reserves
05.03.2018 13
Global Oil and Gas Reserves
20 countries total: 373,2 BTOE(92,5% of global oil and gas reserves)
Unconventional hydrocarbon resources
Gas hydrates
Shale gas
Coal bed methane (CBM)
Extra heavy oil and bitumen
Shale (tight) oil and oil shales (source rock oil)
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Unconventional oil resources
Naturally occuring:
Extra heavy oil and bitumen – ca. 6 trillion bbls
Oil from mature source rocks – ca. 3 trillion bbls
Canadian production with split on Life Cycle Category
forecast extended to 2050
Only 6 wells in West Greenland in an area three times the size of the North Sea
USGS P50 estimate for Greenland’s hydrocarbon potential is ~50 billion boe
Ref: K. Mørk, DnV, 2012
West Greenland
39
40
Norwegian Petroleum Resources
40
Producing, developed and discovered fields
HC Resource Potential of Norwegian Continental Shelf
Undiscovered unawarded resources
Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)
Oil production in Norway 1978 to 2033
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HC Resources of the Norwegian Arctic
Source: NPD, Facts book, 2010
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and as of 01.04.2014
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Russian Petroleum Industry
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Russia’s conventional HC reserves & resources
Ref.: D. Khramov, Rus-Norw Seminar, June 20, 2011
Total: 355 BTOE
US DOE (June 11, 2013): Russia has ca. 175 BTO in oil shales
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46
Oil majors in the Arctic
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47
48
Almost 1/3 of the Russian territory is in the Arctic
2/3 of the territory is covered with permafrost
Admiral S. Makarov: “Russia is a building which
facade is facing the Arctic”
Russia in the Arctic
49
Permafrost distribution: - Continuous
- Intermittent
- Insular
- Absence of
permafrost
- Pipelines
- Compressor stations
- UGSF
- Gazpom’s license areas
- Gas processing plant
Russia in the Arctic
50
A rough evaluation says that each dollar invested in the Arctic could
bring a 7-fold profit.
The Russian part of the Arctic is the richest in petroleum resources.
Estimate of Ministry of Natural Resources:
Russian arctic shelves contain ca. 15.5 billion tones of oil and 84,5
TCM gas (~ 100 BTOE = 720 Bbbloe).
Around 50 international companies participate in the development
of petroleum and other types of resources in Russia eyeing HC fields
and structures in Barents, Pechora and Kara seas (and even further
eastward).
Russia in the Arctic
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Technically recovered HC resources of the arctic shelves
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Russia in the Arctic
Category % Shelf OnshoreOnshore &
offshore
ABC1+C2 90 10.1 42.7 52.8
C3+D 10 89.3 65.6 154.9
Total HC HC 99.3 108.4 207.7
Source: State Committee on Reserves (GRZ), October 2017
Oil and gas resources of the Russian Arctic
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Technically recovered HC resources of the arctic shelves
Distribution of the YTF resources in the offshore Russian Arctic
Arctic offshore global oil and gas production forecast, 2000–2040
2020-2025Dolginskoye Yuzhnoe, RU
Kamennomysskoye Sev., RU
Rakushechnoye, RU
Khvalynskoye, RU
Sakhalin, RU
Tsentralnaya, RU
Sarmatskaya, RU
Johan Castberg
(Skrugard), NO
Snohvit, ph.2, NO
Mizzen, CA
Kuvlum, US
Kaktovik, US
2030++Leningradskoye, RU
Rusanovskoye, RU
Shtokman, RU
EPNZ Blocks, RU
Lisyanskiy Block, RU
Barents Sea Structures, RU
Magadan Basin, RU
Sakhalin Anticlinorium, RU
East-Siberian Sea, RU
Issungnak, CA
Point Thomson, ph.2, US
2000-2015Prirazlomnoe, RU
Yurkharovskoye, RU
Sakhalin-1, RU
Sakhalin-2,3, RU
Snohvit, NO
White Rose, CA
Terra Nova, CA
Hibernia, CA
Sable, CA
Prudhoe Bay, US
Northstar, US
2015-2020
Vl.Filanovsky, RU
Sakhalin-2,3, RU
Goliath, NO
Hebron, CA
Amauligak, CA
Point Thomson, ph.1, US
2025-2030Kamennomysskoe-more,
RU
Medyn-more, RU
Obskoe, RU
Sakhalin-4, 5, 6, RU
Kashevarovsky block, RU
South Barents Sea Basin,
RU
East Sakhalin Anticlinor.,
RU
Finnmark Platform, NO
Pactoa, CA
Bjarni, CA
Color identifies
the country
HC Resource Potential of the Russian Arctic shelves
Kara Sea
(w/o Ob & Tazov bays)
Barents Sea
Laptev, East-Siberian & Chukchi seas
Sea of Okhotsk
Producing, under development,
discovered and undiscovered fieldsLiquid / gas
Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)
Global Arctic offshore
oil and gas production
+ Yamal onshore
Yamal
By 2040 – 8,2%
of the global
O&G production
Yamal onshore
Global
Arctic Offshore
HC Resource Potential of the Russian Arctic shelves
Yamburgskoye
Medvezhje
Bovanenkovskoye
Yurkharovskoye
Novatek fields (Yamal LNG)
Tambei fields
Rusanovskoye
Leningradskoye
East-Prinovozemelskie
blocks
Production forecast of the largest onshore and offshore fields of Yamal peninsula, 2000–2040 гг.
Far East: map of recoverable petroleum resources
The following clusters are
considered in the study:
Sakhalin onshore+offshore
Kamchatka
Magadan
Yakutia
Прогноз добычи по шельфу
Сахалина
Lunskoye
Chaivo
Odopty
Yuzhno
Kirinskoye
Chaivo, gas
Kirinsloye
Arkutun-Dagi
Sakhalin
Antiklinorii
Sakhalin development forecast
Far East production forecast
Far East petroleum resources
Caspian Petroleum Resources
6161
Resource base
Resources potential
Distribution of HC resources between the countries in the Caspian region
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Production forecast from the Caspian Sea up to 2040
Kashagan
Shah-Deniz
Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli
Khvalynskoye Rakushechnoye
Umid
Vl Filanovsky
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Recoverable Petroleum Resources of the Russian Arctic
By 2040
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Technology for operations in the Arctic with water depth exceeding 500 ft (150 m) is under sanctions
Russia has to develop its own upstream sector:
Seismic vessels and drilling ships,
GBS, SSP, Jack-up platforms and other
installations,
Equipment and technology
66
State of the Arctic shelf exploration as of 2015
Challenges in exploration
Russia has 14 deep water shipsfor seismic survey from which –only 3 capable to carry limitedvolume 3D seismic (each has 3-8 short streamers of 6.5 kmeach).
Modern seismic ships equippedwith 12-22 longer streamers,which is very important in theshort arctic seasons.
The best Russia vessel “Vyacheslav Tikhonov” has 8 streamers with total length of 48 km which has 3 times less efficiency as compared with modern Norwegian vessels with 18 streamers each (Ramform type).
This means that to explore an area of 10 000 sq. km Russian vessel needs 2 years while Norwegian ship – one season.
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State of the Arctic shelf exploration as of 2013
Challenges in exploration drilling
Number of exploration wells on theRussian Arctic shelf – 88 wells while on theBritish and Norwegian continental shelves– ca. 5000 wells.
Russia should drill additionally fewthousand exploration wells to achievereasonable certainty level of the exploredresources
During next 15-20 years Russia will need atleast 13-15 floating drilling units capableto work on Arctic shelves
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Gazprom’s 2015-2024 exploration program
Region Number of wells
Barents and Pechora seas 20
Kara Sea and Ob and Tazov bays 41
Sea of Okhotsk 19
Total 80
Source: Shelf of Russia and CIS, May 22 2015, Moscow
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The first Russian exploratory well in the Kara Sea
Universitetskaya-1
Russian oil company, Rosneft,and American oil and gascorporation ExxonMobil havediscovered the new oil and gasfield during drilling on theUniversitetskaya-1 well in theKara Sea.
Drilling was carried out inrecord time - one and a halfmonths.
Total [technically] recoverable resources of oil 130 million tons of oil (0,94 Bbo) and 499 BCM of gas.
The total expenses related to the discovery is evaluated as 600 MUSD.
The water depth is 81 meters; TVD of the well – 2113 m. Ref.: http://www.rosneft.ru
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SCF Sovcomflot
As of January 2016
153 specialized vessels
~ 13 million mt dwt
Crude oil tankers
Product tankers
LNG carriers
LPG carriers
Offshore fleet:
– Shuttle tankers
– IBSVs (34 acting, 4 under construction, 9 in design
– Marine seismics
– Research vessels
Ref: Shelf of Russia and CIS, May 22 2015, Moscow (augmented)
Russia in the Arctic
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Russia’s weak points:
It doesn’t have a capacity to build LNG-tankers
No technology to build subsea modules
Bottle neck – naval mechanical engineering, especially diesel power systems
Russia’s strong points:
Icebeakers fleet
Nuclear power systems – best in the world
New design – Floating Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP)
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Future Multipurpose Hubs?
Ref: North Energy, Presentation at AROG conference, 2014
GBS-, floating- or land based hubs
with support functions such as:
Emergency operations /coordination
Weather surveillance
Hospitals/medical facilities
Firefighting equipment
Oil spill recovery equipment
Additional systems and equipment for SAR
Communication facilities
Helicopter base
Electricity transformers
LNG
OIL
NGL
NGL
LNG
73
Conditions of sustainable Arctic development
Conditions for developing new technologies and breaking new frontiers through
Continuous dialogue
Collaboration
Internationalization of education
Training of specialists
74March 5, 2018
Hard-to-recover reserves
Shale oil Oil rims Fissured carbonate reservoirs Arctic offshore oil and gas reserves Increasing fond of idling wells
Intellectual systems of field development High technology wells Integrated drilling service Expansion of lab and methodical base for research Technology Management System development Energy efficiency programme
New EOR technology
ASP technology Multistage Hydraulic fracturing New technologies for Repair and Insulation works (RIW)
Technological challenges and future tasks
75
Most efficient ways od HC Resources development in newregions:
– Deployment of breakthrough technologies based onsmart complexes for oil and gas production from hard-to-recover resources (in part or in whole automated andunmanned);
– Development of giant and large oil and gas fields andreduction of unit cost due to the project scale;
– Development of control centers based on the IntegratedOperations (IO) principle
Technological challenges and future tasks
Source: A, Dmitrievsky, N. Eremin. XX Gubkin lectures, 2013
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Transfer from unique toroutine operations ofresources developmentin HC clusters;
Use of IO conceptincluding digital oilfield, intellectualexploration andproduction, transport,energy supply, logistics
and marketing.
Source: A, Dmitrievsky, N. Eremin. XX Gubkin lectures, 2013