1 Opportunities and Challenges Opportunities and Challenges for CCS for CCS in a Carbon in a Carbon Constrained World Constrained World in a Carbon in a Carbon-Constrained World Constrained World Edward S. Rubin Department of Engineering and Public Policy Department of Mechanical Engineering Carnegie Mellon University Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Presentation to the Discussion Forum on CCS in the KSA Dhahran, Saudi Arabia December 9, 2013 Greetings Greetings from from Carnegie Carnegie Carnegie Carnegie Mellon Mellon University University E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon Carnegie Mellon University campus ( foreground) in Pittsburgh (background) Carnegie Mellon University campus ( foreground) in Pittsburgh (background) Outline of Talk Outline of Talk • Why the interest in CCS? • Current status of technology • Challenges • Opportunities E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon Why the interest in CCS ? Why the interest in CCS ? (Carbon Carbon Capture and Storage /Sequestration) Capture and Storage /Sequestration) E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
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Opportunities and Challenges Opportunities and Challenges for CCS for CCS
in a Carbonin a Carbon Constrained WorldConstrained Worldin a Carbonin a Carbon--Constrained WorldConstrained World
Edward S. RubinDepartment of Engineering and Public Policy
Department of Mechanical EngineeringCarnegie Mellon UniversityCarnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Presentation to theDiscussion Forum on CCS in the KSA
Dhahran, Saudi ArabiaDecember 9, 2013
Greetings Greetings fromfrom
CarnegieCarnegieCarnegie Carnegie Mellon Mellon
UniversityUniversity
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon Carnegie Mellon University campus ( foreground) in Pittsburgh (background)Carnegie Mellon University campus ( foreground) in Pittsburgh (background)
Outline of TalkOutline of Talk
• Why the interest in CCS?• Current status of technology • Challenges• Opportunities
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Why the interest in CCS ?Why the interest in CCS ?((Carbon Carbon Capture and Storage /Sequestration)Capture and Storage /Sequestration)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
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Emissions of COEmissions of CO22 and other heatand other heat--trapping gases have grown rapidlytrapping gases have grown rapidly
Global Emissions by Source Type
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Source: ORNL, 2013
World World Energy Energy Use Continues to GrowUse Continues to Grow~85% of world energy is from fossil fuels
Fossil fuels burned for electricity generation and
transportation are the major sources of CO2 emissions
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Source: BP, 2011
As a result, atmospheric As a result, atmospheric GHG GHG levels levels are increasing rapidly …are increasing rapidly …
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) t ti i thconcentrations in the
atmosphere have been increasing as a result of human activities
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie MellonSource: IPCC, 2001
Source: NOAA, 2011
… at an unprecedented rate… at an unprecedented rate
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie MellonSource: NOAA, 2013
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… projected to far exceed past levels… projected to far exceed past levels
Projected increase of up to ~5°C in mean surface temperature by 2100
Dangers of climate change increase Dangers of climate change increase with higher global temperaturewith higher global temperature
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon Source: IPCC, 2007
More extreme events are expected More extreme events are expected as atmospheric concentration risesas atmospheric concentration risespp
The Climate Policy The Climate Policy GoalGoal
• 1992 U N F k C ti Cli t• 1992 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change called for “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
*192 countries are parties to the convention
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Implication of StabilizationImplication of Stabilization
• Because GHGs have very long atmospheric lifetimes—y g ptypically measured in centuries (vs. days to weeks for other common air pollutants) —global GHG emissionsmust be reduced significantly in order to stabilize atmospheric concentrations .... no matter what stabilization target is selected
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Analogy: To stabilize the rising water level in a slow-draining tub, the faucets must be tightened to a trickle
Mitigating Climate Change Mitigating Climate Change Requires Requires Large Emission Large Emission Reductions, Reductions, SoonSoon
To avoid serious impacts (>2ºC rise), the IPCC assessment indicates a need for large reductions in GHGs by 2050
Required change in global GHG emissions from 2000 to 2050
–50% to –85%
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Source: IPCC, 2007
Motivation and Motivation and Opportunities for Opportunities for CCSCCS
• F il f l ill ti t b d f d d• Fossil fuels will continue to be used for many decades —alternatives not able to substitute quickly
• CCS is the ONLY way to get large CO2 reductions from fossil fuels used for electricity and industrial processes
• CCS also can help decarbonize the transportation sector via low-carbon electricity and hydrogen from fossil fuels
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
• Energy models show that without CCS, the cost of mitigating climate change will be much higher
CostCost--Effective Global Strategies Effective Global Strategies Require CCS in the PortfolioRequire CCS in the Portfolio
Models show increasing need for CCS gas stabilization goal tightens
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
S $
Dis
coun
ted
to 2
005
450 ppm550 ppm$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
S $
Dis
coun
ted
to 2
005
450 ppm550 ppm
Without CCS the cost of stabilization increases sharply
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Source: IPCC, 2007$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Trill
ions
of 1
990
US 550 ppm
650 ppm
Fraction of Maximum Potential Storage Capacity Available
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Trill
ions
of 1
990
US 550 ppm
650 ppm
Fraction of Maximum Potential Storage Capacity Available
Source: J. Edmonds, PNNL, 2008
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Status of CCS technology Status of CCS technology
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Schematic of a CCS SystemSchematic of a CCS System