Opportunities and challenges ahead - AEEolica · calling for predictable policies and market design reform Source: MTRMR 2015 Source: IEA estimates derived in part from IEA Medium-Term
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IEA analysis for 2015 shows renewables surge, led by wind, and improvements in energy efficiency were key to keeping emissions flat for a second year in a row
Greater efforts are still needed to reach a 2 °C pathway
In a 2°C Scenario, wind generation accounts for the biggest incremental generation of all fuels globally, and accounts for a quarter of CO2 savings from renewables
Low-carbon technologies and networks require the largest investment
Confidence in remuneration, including through carbon pricing and complementary long-term arrangements, will be critical to finance capital-intensive assets
Source: World Energy Outlook 2015
• Power-sector cumulative investment by type in OECD Europe, 2 °C Scenario, 2015-2040
Onshore wind Solar PV - residential Solar PV - utility scale
Innovation and scale-up are driving costs down
High levels of incentives are no longer necessary for solar PV and onshore wind, but their economic attractiveness still depends on regulatory framework and market design
The ‘Silent Revolution’ – leading to record capacity factors
Capacity-weighted average capacity factor of wind power in 2015 in the US per project vintage
Taller machines with longer blades and large specific swept areas were first installed in lower-speed wind areas, then in better resource areas, reaching high capacity factors
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Reaching low shares of VRE(a few percent in annual generation) poses no significant economic or technical challenges
Reaching high shares calls for a coordinated transformation
No-regret options
Must-have options for immediate implementation
e.g. Adequate real-time monitoring, control and forecasts
Short-term improvements for secure system operations:
e.g. System-friendly VRE deployment policies
Future-proofing planning processes for long-term energy security