Report on National Public Opinion Survey – September 2013 Submitted to: Daily Prothom Alo CA Bhaban 100 Kazi Nazrul Islam Avenue Karwan Bazar, Dhaka-1215 Submitted by: Org-Quest Research Limited Unique Trade Centre (UTC), Level – 6 8 Panthapa th, Dha ka-1215 October 3, 2013
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On completion of nearly 5 years in power by the incumbent government and keeping theforthcoming general election in mind, Prothom Alo, the leading daily newspaper of the
country, initiated the 5th round of opinion survey with a view to rate the government’s
performance on some critical issues, and measure public perception on current burning and
election issues. The survey was conducted among 5000 (five thousand) nationally
representative sample of voters covering all 7 divisions, urban and rural areas and both male
and female population.
Findings:
Governance issues: The first 2 years of its rule was perhaps the best period under the present
government. Findings over the last 5 years show that its performance started off with a highnote and continued for a couple years, but declined sharply in the 3 rd year and continued
around the same level thereafter. The following graph summarizes indicator-wise
performance (depicting positive response only):
Positive Response on Governance Issues
Voting intent: BNP was leading AL with a wide margin based on voting intent. If the
national election was held today, BNP would pull 50.3% votes, up by more than 6 percentage
points from the last round of survey, distantly followed by AL, accounting for 36.5%, gaining
by about 2 percentage points from the previous round. The trend of voting intent shows a
widening gap between BNP and AL with the passage of time. Compared with the last round,
the main loser was JP (Ershad) going down from 11.8% in the last round to 7% in this round,
1.1. Background: On completion of nearly 5 years in power by the incumbent government
and keeping the forthcoming general election in mind, Prothom Alo, the leading dailynewspaper of the country, initiated the 5th round of opinion survey with a view to rate
the government’s performance on some critical issues, and measure public perception
on current burning and election issues.
1.2. Target Respondents: Adult males and females (18 years and above) who were enlisted
as voters.
1.3. Geographical Coverage: The survey was nationally representative, covering 30
districts across all the 7 administrative divisions in both urban and rural areas.
1.4. Sample Size: n=5000, distributed amongst male & females in urban – rural areas
proportionate to population as shown below.
Area Type Male Female Total
Urban 617 633 1250
Rural 1879 1871 3750
Total 2496 2504 5000
1.5. Sampling Technique: The survey was conducted by adopting multi-stage stratified
systematic random sampling technique to make the study as representative as possible.
Estimated Margin of Error was: ± 1.39. The survey strictly adhered to the
internationally accepted methodology and ethical standard as per the guideline of
European Society for Opinion and Market Research (ESOMAR). As a member of
ESOMAR, Org-Quest Research Limited complies with the ICC/ ESOMAR
International Marketing and Social Research Practices.
Systematic random sampling technique was followed to locate and interview target
respondents. All seven divisions were considered. In each division 3 to 6 districts(primary sampling units - PSU), depending on the size, were selected keeping
geographical dispersion in mind. Having selected PSUs, required number of secondary
sampling units or SSU (municipal ward in urban area and village in rural area) and
sampling/starting points (SP) were selected randomly based on electoral roll. Around
each randomly selected starting point/cluster, a predetermined number of households
were contacted and interviewed; leaving four intervening households in between
(interviewed every fifth household).
The Right Hand Rule was used for selection of households other than the Starting Point
(SP). This rule states that after reaching the SP, the investigator will have to go to the
households falling on the right hand side from the starting point. Not more than 5interviews were conducted in each starting point.
Within each selected household, names of all household members were listed down in
descending order of their age. Serial numbers were provided to all members aged 18
years and above and enlisted as a voter in descending order of age i.e. starting with the
oldest member of the family and going down to the youngest member who has
completed 18 years. In case of more than one eligible member in a household, one ofthe adults was selected randomly by using KISH Table1 for interview. Only one
member in selected household was interviewed.
1.6. Fieldwork Period: September, 2013
1Kish Table: Use of Kish Table (a randomized selection method) helps selecting the right
respondents from the right household with multiple eligible respondents. The Kish Table was
2.1. Rating of the Government Performance Indicators:
In this round, unlike the previous 4 surveys, only four critical indicators were considered formeasuring the government’s performance. These include ‘direction of the country’, ‘overall
running of the government’, ‘law & order situation’ and ‘the state of corruption’. The first 2
years of its rule was perhaps the best period under the present government. Findings over the
last 5 years show that its performance started off with a high note and continued for a couple
years, but declined sharply in the 3rd year and continued around the same level thereafter. The
following graph summarizes indicator-wise performance (depicting positive response only):
Indicator-wise performance rating can be narrated as below:
Direction of the country: The country is not moving in the right direction. As can be seen
from the following graph, until the end of second year a substantial majority (61%) thought
that the country was moving in the right direction, which turned the other way round at theend of 3rd year when nearly 60% opined that the country was moving in the wrong direction,
and continued more or less at the same level as no significant deterioration was noticed in the
following 2 years. It may be worth mentioning here that at the end of first year of its rule an
overwhelming majority of 70% thought that the country was moving in the right direction
indicating a high level of satisfaction with the government performance until then.
In which Direction the Country is Moving
Overall running of the government: There is no good news about overall management of
the country either as a downward trend is observed in this regard, which begun especially in
the 3rd year with a sharp erosion of satisfied people from 58% to 43%, which continued more
less at the same level in the following years as can be seen from the following graph. As
against this, proportion of dissatisfied respondents went up from 26% at the end of 1 st year to
Law and order situation: Country’s law and order situation cannot be termed satisfactory.
When asked whether the law and order situation has improved or deteriorated during the
present regime, 39% replied positively, 44% thought otherwise and 17% termed the situation
as unchanged, which implies that a substantial majority of 61% felt that the situation has
either worsened or remained unchanged. In this case also we can observe a sharp
deterioration of the perceived situation at the end of 3rd
year compared to the previous twoyears. The following graph illustrates further.
Law and Order Situation
Level of corruption: The state of corruption marked a further deterioration in this round of
survey, indicating a continuous perceived increase in corruption over the past 5 years.Proportion of those who thought corruption has increased in this regime, went up from 49%
in the last round to 54% during this survey, which was only 34% at the end of the first year of
the AL rule. As against this, favorable opinion declined from 38% to 34%, which was 42% at
the end of 1st year. 12% thought it remained unchanged.
Government’s dealing with the opposition: Respondents were unhappy with government’s
dealing with the opposition as well. An overwhelming majority of 73% thought the
government did not deal with the opposition appropriately, which was only 42% at the end of
1st year of its regime. On the other hand, number of persons who thought that it dealt with the
opposition appropriately went down from 57% to 26% in the same period, as can be seen
from the following graph.
Government’s Dealing with the Opposition
2.3. Trial of War Crime:
Almost the whole country is with the government for the trial of war crimes committed
during the liberation war of 1971. However, reservations exist with the process of trial.
Details are being narrated in the following section:
Trial and punishment of war criminal: The country appears to be united in showing itssupport for the trial of crimes committed against humanity during the liberation war. When
respondents were asked if those who had committed war crimes should be tried and punished,
an overwhelming majority of 80% responded affirmatively, and only 19% were against it.
Incidence of affirmative response was relatively higher in urban than in rural areas and
amongst males compared to females. Age-wise no noticeable difference was observed.
2.5. Issues Concerning the Forthcoming National Election:
This section delineates matters concerning the all important national election including voting
intent, reflection of recently concluded city corporations election, ability of the election
commission, election time government, need for armed forces’ assistance, likelihood of
consensus between AL and BNP and acceptability of election without BNP’s participation.
Findings are being narrated below one by one.
Voting intent: BNP was leading AL with a wide margin based on voting intent. If the
national election was held today, BNP would pull 50.3% votes, up by more than 6 percentage
points from the last round of survey, distantly followed by AL, accounting for 36.5%, gaining
by about 2 percentage points from the previous round. The trend of voting intent shows awidening gap between BNP and AL with the passage of time, as can be seen from the
following graph. Compared with the last round, the main loser was JP (Ershad) going down
from 11.8% in the last round to 7% in this round, losing mainly to BNP and partly to AL. JI
also lost some grounds as it went down from 3.2% to 2.9%, whose supporters are in general
Recent city corporation elections and its reflection on national election: Recent city
corporation elections’ result is widely believed to be a reflection of the forthcoming national
election’s result. Respondents were asked if the results of the recently concluded election of
the 5 city corporations are any reflection of the forthcoming national election. A substantial
majority of 62% responded affirmatively and 37% said ‘no’. By voting intention, the opinionwas almost diametrically opposite as most of the BNP (90%) and only 22% of the AL
supporters (intend to vote for) thought this to be a reflection of the national election.
Whether City Corporation Elections’ Result was a Reflection of Upcoming National
Election
Ability of the EC to hold free and fair national election: Like the previous round, the
country appeared more or less equally divided on this issue in this round as well. When asked
if the EC has the capability of holding the next general election in a fair and neutral manner,
48% responded affirmatively and 51% opined otherwise. This was 45% and 49% respectively
in the last round. By voting intention, 84% of AL as against 24% of BNP supporters (intend
to vote for) kept faith on the EC for holding the election in a free and fair manner.
Does the Current EC has Ability to Hold a Free and Fair Election
Election time government: The country appears to have a united view about the election
time government as a staggering majority of 82% respondents voiced in favor of holding the
election under a neutral government, which was 90% in April round this year, down by 8
percentage points as can be seen from the following graph. It may be worth noting here that
in the two previous national public opinion polls conducted in December 2011 and December2012 election under caretaker government was preferred by 73% and 76% respondents
respectively.
However, by voting intention, it is interesting to note that slightly more than half of the AL
(53%) and almost 100% of BNP intenders voiced for a neutral government. A large number
of AL intenders who opted for neutral government were contacted over phone and asked
what made them go for it. In reply most of them (86%) said that election will be fair under
neutral government. Other noticeable reasons were ‘for holding peaceful election’ (16%), ‘for
all inclusive election’ (12%) and ‘no party influence’ (9%).
Preferred Election Time Government
Need for army assistance in holding election: Almost the whole country felt the need for
army assistance. Like in the last round, nearly 90% felt that armed forces’ assistance was
essential for holding a free and fair election as can be seen from the following graph.
If there is a Need for Army Assistance in Holding Free and Fair Election
Prospect of a consensus between AL and BNP about election time government: There
appears to be an increased optimism amongst the voters compared with the last round in this
regard. Respondents were asked if there was any prospect of arriving at a consensus between
AL and BNP about the election time government for holding the forthcoming general
election. The trend of findings indicates an increased optimism as positive response went upfrom 34% in 2012 to 45% in this round. However, still slightly more than half of the
respondents (54%) were pessimistic about it compared to 59% in 2012, down by 5 percentage
point.
Will there be a Consensus between AL and BNP about Interim or Caretaker
Government for Holding Next General Election
What if no consensus arrived: A state of anarchy was perceived to be the most likely thing
to happen if no consensus is arrived between the two opposing parties. All respondents were
asked ‘what if no consensus can be arrived regarding election time government between the
two main parties’. A very high majority of respondents (73%) were apprehending a state
anarchy, 14% foresaw a martial law or army backed government and 12% predicted a one