Operationalizing sustainability in urban coastal systems: A system dynamics analysis Georgia Mavrommati a, *, Kostas Bithas b , Panayiotis Panayiotidis c a Center for Water Sciences, Michigan State University, 301 Manly Miles Building, 1405 S. Harrison Road, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA b Environmental and Natural Resources Economics, Panteion University, Department of Economic and Regional Development, Greece c Hellenic Center for Marine Research, Institute of Oceanography, Greece article info Article history: Received 11 April 2013 Received in revised form 13 October 2013 Accepted 14 October 2013 Available online xxx Keywords: Coupled human and natural sys- tems Pollutant loads Biological quality elements Good ecological status Ecological sustainability System dynamics abstract We propose a system dynamics approach for Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) in urban coastal systems. A systematic analysis based on theoretical considerations, policy analysis and experts’ knowledge is followed in order to define the concept of ESD. The principles underlying ESD feed the development of a System Dynamics Model (SDM) that connects the pollutant loads produced by urban systems’ socioeconomic activities with the ecological condition of the coastal ecosystem that it is delineated in operational terms through key biological elements defined by the EU Water Framework Directive. The receiving waters of the Athens Metropolitan area, which bears the elements of typical high population density Mediterranean coastal city but which currently has also new dynamics induced by the ongoing financial crisis, are used as an experimental system for testing a system dynamics approach to apply the concept of ESD. Systems’ thinking is employed to represent the complex relationships among the components of the system. In- terconnections and dependencies that determine the potentials for achieving ESD are revealed. The proposed system dynamics analysis can facilitate decision makers to define paths of development that comply with the principles of ESD. ª 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Human systems are strongly interrelated with coastal eco- systems. Various human activities (e.g. wastewater discharg- ing, over fishing) affect the water quality of coastal ecosystems, while the goods and services provided by the coastal ecosystem are essential for the economic process and human well-being (e.g. fisheries, recreation). When it comes to urban systems, the interactions between human activities and coastal systems are more intensified due to the increase in population density and associated economic activities. For example, the high urbanization rates in the Mediterranean coastal countries along with the lack of wastewater infrastructure in many coastal areas exacerbate the degradation of coastal waters (Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008; Iglesias et al., 2007; UNEP, 2008). Systems’ thinking facilitates the recognition that funda- mental laws of physics are relevant to the economic processes as there is no way “to create something from nothing” or “to create nothing from something” (Farley, 2012; Georgescu- Roegen, 1971). System dynamics approaches have been used in the relevant literature to explore the interactions between human and coastal systems with respect to the sustainability * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected](G. Mavrommati), [email protected](K. Bithas), [email protected](P. Panayiotidis). Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/watres water research xxx (2013) 1 e16 Please cite this article in press as: Mavrommati, G., et al., Operationalizing sustainability in urban coastal systems: A system dynamics analysis, Water Research (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2013.10.041 0043-1354/$ e see front matter ª 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2013.10.041
16
Embed
Operationalizing sustainability in urban coastal systems ...csis.msu.edu/sites/csis.msu.edu/files/Operationalyzing... · Operationalizing sustainability in urban coastal ... principles
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
ww.sciencedirect.com
wat e r r e s e a r c h x x x ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1e1 6
Available online at w
ScienceDirect
journal homepage: www.elsevier .com/locate/watres
Operationalizing sustainability in urban coastalsystems: A system dynamics analysis
Georgia Mavrommati a,*, Kostas Bithas b, Panayiotis Panayiotidis c
aCenter for Water Sciences, Michigan State University, 301 Manly Miles Building, 1405 S. Harrison Road, East
Lansing, MI 48824, USAbEnvironmental and Natural Resources Economics, Panteion University, Department of Economic and
Regional Development, GreececHellenic Center for Marine Research, Institute of Oceanography, Greece
Table 2 e Comparison between the wastewater in flowinto the Wastewater Treatment Plant for dry (June) andwet (January) months from 2003 to 2007. Data wereobtained from Athens Water Supply and SewerageCompany (2009) and Hellenic National MeteorologicalService (2011).
Year Dry periodinflow (m3)
Wet periodinflow (m3)
Precipitationdry period
(mm)
Precipitationwet period
(mm)
2003 724,810 788,083 0.0 52.9
2004 695,273 905,500 0.4 144.6
wat e r r e s e a r c h x x x ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1e1 6 7
For the purpose of our model, we use a logelog per capita
water demand function. Based on the available data (Athens
Water Supply and Sewerage Company, 2009), the residential
water consumption in the AMA is described according to Eq.
(1):
qw ¼ 0:6941 � 0:231 � pþ 0:443 � GDP (1)
R2 ¼ 0:798
Std: Error of the Estimate ¼ 0:082
The dependent variable is the log of daily per capita water
demand (q), while the weighted average price (p) and per
capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) constitute the indepen-
dent variables. Water price and GDP are expressed in real
terms using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the deflator.
The price elasticity indicates that a 1% price increase will
reduce demand by 0.231% with all else equal. The income
elasticity is high indicating that a 1% increase in income will
result in an increase of demand by 0.443 with all else equal.
Those estimations are in line with the relevant literature
worldwide (Dalhuisen et al., 2003; Polycarpou and
Zachariadis, 2013). Apart from price and income, other vari-
ables may affect the per capita water demand such as pre-
cipitation, lifestyle, temperature, drought periods etc. The
equations for estimating the volume of wastewater are
Fig. 8 e Simulation results for scenario 2 (combined sewer overflows scenario). BODOUT [ biological oxygen demand
Outflow ((mg/l)/day), TSSOUT [ total suspended solids outflow ((mg/l)/day), WWflow [ volume of wastewater (m3/day),
BCL [ Biological Crucial Level, EEI [ ecological evaluation index. The numbers in the plots refer to different parameters.
wat e r r e s e a r c h x x x ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1e1 612
Please cite this article in press as: Mavrommati, G., et al., Operationalizing sustainability in urban coastal systems: A systemdynamics analysis, Water Research (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2013.10.041
wat e r r e s e a r c h x x x ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1e1 6 15
impacts exceeds certain levels, the technology may not be
able to reduce the impact. In our case, the European policies
for aquatic waters set the appropriate framework for man-
aging the pollutant loads discharged into the urban coastal
waters of Athens Metropolitan Area.
Our approach can trace the roots of the causes of change
to key elements of the socioeconomic and ecological sys-
tems in order to inform decision makers in designing
effective policies for attaining sustainability. Policy making
is an endogenous parameter linked to sustainability targets
if one defines the Good Ecological Status as the necessary
condition for sustainability. Further research is needed (i) to
better understand the complexity of decision making pro-
cess and to improve this component in our approach; and (ii)
to integrate water quantity aspects under alternative sce-
narios of climate change in the Mediterranean region.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Dr. M. Baustian, Dr. J. Rose
and Dr. J. Tsao for their support and advice in writing this
manuscript, and two anonymous reviewers for providing
comments on earlier drafts.
r e f e r e n c e s
Athens Water Supply and Sewarage Company, 2010a. Water andSewer Rates and Billing, 1987e2010. Athens.
AthensWater Supply and Sewarage Company, 2010b. Water SalesRevenues, 1994e2010. Athens.
Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company, 2008. Influent andEffluent Data for the Wastewater Treatment Plant of Psitalia2003e2007. Ministry of Environment and Climate Change,Athens.
Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company, 2009. Billed WaterConsumption from 1987 to 2010. Athens.
Bithas, K., 2008. Tracing operational conditions for theecologically sustainable economic development: the Paretooptimality and the preservation of the biological crucial levels.Environ. Develop. Sustain. 10 (3), 373e390.
Bithas, K., Nikjamp, P., 2006. Operationalising ecologicallysustainable development at the microlevel: pareto optimalityand the preservation of biologically crucial levels. Int. J.Environ. Sustain. Develop. 5 (2), 126e146.
Bithas, K.P., Christofakis, M., 2006. Environmentally sustainablecities. Critical review and operational conditions. Sustain.Develop. 14 (3), 177e189.
Please cite this article in press as: Mavrommati, G., et al., Operatdynamics analysis, Water Research (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.10
Chang, Y.C., Hong, F.W., Lee, M.T., 2008. A system dynamic basedDSS for sustainable coral reef management in Kenting coastalzone, Taiwan. Ecol. Model. 211 (1e2), 153e168.
Commission of the European Communities, 2000. Directive of theEuropean Parliament and of the Council Establishing aframework for the Community action in the field of waterpolicy. In: Communities, O.J.o.t.E. (Ed.), p. 72.
Costelloe, J., Nikolaidou, A., 2001. Mapping the pollution gradientof the Saronikos Gulf benthos prior to the operation of theAthens sewage treatment plant, Greece. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 42(12), 1417e1419.
Council of the European Communities, 1991. Council Directiveconcerning urban waste water treatment (91/271/EEC). Off. J.Eur. Commun., 16.
Cummins, V., McKenna, J., 2010. The potential role ofsustainability science in coastal zone management. OceanCoast. Manage. 53 (12), 796e804.
Dalhuisen, J.M., Florax, R.J.G.M., de Groot, H.L.F., Nijkamp, P.,2003. Price and income elasticities of residential waterdemand: a meta-analysis. Land Econ. 79 (2), 292e308.
Dassenakis, M., Scoullos, M., Rapti, K., Pavlidou, A., Tsorova, D.,Paraskevopoulou, V., Rozi, E., Stamateli, A., Siganos, M., 2003.The distribution of copper in Saronicos gulf after the operationof the wastewater treatment plant of Psitalia. Global NEST Int.J. 5, 135e145.
Diaz, R.J., Rosenberg, R., 2008. Spreading dead zones andconsequences for marine ecosystems. Science 321 (5891),926e929.
Ekins, P., Simon, S., 2003. An illustrative application of theCRITINC framework to the UK. Ecol. Econ. 44 (2e3), 255e275.
Ekins, P., Simon, S., Deutsch, L., Folke, C., De Groot, R., 2003. Aframework for the practical application of the concepts ofcritical natural capital and strong sustainability. Ecol. Econ. 44(2e3), 165e185.
Hellenic Statistical Authority, 2011. Population Census 2011.Available online at: http://www.statistics.gr/portal/page/portal/ESYE/PAGE-census2011 (accessed 01.03.13), Athens.
Hellenic National Meteorological Service (Ed.), 2011. Daily RainfallData from 1987 to 2011. Hellenic National MeteorologicalService, Athens.
Hopkins, T.S., Bailly, D., Elmgren, R., Glegg, G., Sandberg, A.,Støttrup, J.G., 2012. A systems approach framework for thetransition to sustainable development: potential value basedon coastal experiments. Ecol. Soc. 17 (3).
Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Flores, F., Moneo, M., 2007. Challenges tomanage the risk of water scarcity and climate change in theMediterranean. Water Resour. Manage. 21 (5), 775e788.
Illge, L., Schwarze, R., 2009. A matter of opiniondhowecological and neoclassical environmental economists andthink about sustainability and economics. Ecol. Econ. 68 (3),594e604.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001. ClimateChange 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of WorkingGroup I to the Third Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In:Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M.,Linden, P.J.v.d., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C.A. (Eds.).Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Kallis, G., 2010. Coevolution in water resource development: thevicious cycle of water supply and demand in Athens, Greece.Ecol. Econ. 69 (4), 796e809.
Karka, P., Lekkas, D., Grigoropoulou, E., Assimacopoulos, D., 2011.Conceptual modelling and data based techniques tounderstand urban water use and wastewater production. J.Environ. Sci. Eng. 5 (6), 753e764.
Kato, T., 2005. Simulation of water quality with the application ofsystem dynamics model for population and land-use changes.Paddy Water Environ. 3 (2), 103e109.
Liu, J., Dietz, T., Carpenter, S.R., Alberti, M., Folke, C., Moran, E.,Pell, A.N., Deadman, P., Kratz, T., Lubchenco, J., Ostrom, E.,Ouyang, Z., Provencher, W., Redman, C.L., Schneider, S.H.,Taylor, W.W., 2007. Complexity of coupled human and naturalsystems. Science 317 (5844), 1513e1516.
Mavrommati, G., Baustian, M., Dreelin, E., 2013. Couplingsocioeconomic and lake systems for sustainability: aconceptual analysis using Lake St. Clair region as a case study.AMBIO: J. Hum. Environ. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0432-4.
Mavrommati, G., Bithas, K., 2013. Ecologically sustainableeconomic development in aquatic ecosystems: from theory toenvironmental policy. Sustain. Develop. 21 (1), 60e72.
Mavrommati, G., Richardson, C., 2012. Experts’ evaluation ofconcepts of Ecologically Sustainable Development applied tocoastal ecosystems. Ocean Coast. Manage. 69, 27e34.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2003. Ecosystems andHuman Well-being: A Framework for Assessment.Washington, DC.
Mirchi, A., Madani, K., Watkins Jr., D., Ahmad, S., 2012. Synthesisof system dynamics tools for holistic conceptualization ofwater resources problems. Water Resour. Manage. 26 (9),2421e2442.
Neumayer, E., 2010. Weak Versus Strong Sustainability. EdwardElgar, Cheltenham, UK.
Newton, A., 2012. A systems approach for sustainabledevelopment in Coastal Zones. Ecol. Soc. 17 (3).
OECD, 1996. Innovative Policies for Sustainable UrbanDevelopment: the Ecological City. OECD, Paris.
Please cite this article in press as: Mavrommati, G., et al., Operadynamics analysis, Water Research (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1
Orfanidis, S., Panayotidis, P., Stamatis, N., 2001a. Ecologicalevaluation of transitional and coastal waters: a marine benthicmacrophytes-based model. Mediter. Mar. Sci. 2 (2), 45e65.
Orfanidis, S., Stamatis, N., Tsiagga, E., Schramm, W., 2001b.Variability of the Characteristics of Seaweed Communities ina Eutrophic Lagoon, Vassova, N. Greece.
Orfanidis, S., Panayotidis, P., Stamatis, N., 2003. An insight tothe ecological evaluation index (EEI). Ecol. Indicat. 3 (1),27e33.
Ostrom, E., Cox, M., 2010. Moving beyond panaceas: a multi-tiereddiagnostic approach for social-ecological analysis. Environ.Conser. 37 (04), 451e463.
Panayiotidis, P., 2009. Long-term Changes of Marine Macroalgaeand Physicochemical Parameters in a MediterraneanEmbayment: Saronikos Gulf, 1997e2008. Institute ofOceanography.
Panayotidis, P., Montesanto, B., Orfanidis, S., 2004. Use of low-budget monitoring of macroalgae to implement the EuropeanWater Framework Directive. J. Appl. Phycol. 16 (1), 49e59.
Polycarpou, A., Zachariadis, T., 2013. An econometric analysis ofresidential water demand in Cyprus. Water Resour. Manage.27 (1), 309e317.
Rehan, R., Knight, M.A., Haas, C.T., Unger, A.J.A., 2011.Application of system dynamics for developing financiallyself-sustaining management policies for water andwastewater systems. Water Res. 45 (16), 4737e4750.
Scoullos, M.J., Sakellari, A., Giannopoulou, K.,Paraskevopoulou, V., Dassenakis, M., 2007. Dissolved andparticulate trace metal levels in the Saronikos Gulf, Greece, in2004. The impact of the primary Wastewater Treatment Plantof Psittalia. Desalination 210, 98e109.
Sterman, J., 2012. Sustaining sustainability: creating a systemsscience in a fragmented academy and polarized world. In:Weinstein, M.P., Turner, R.E. (Eds.), Sustainability Science.Springer, New York, pp. 21e58.
Sterman, J.D., 2000. Business Dynamics. Systems Thinking andModeling for a Complex World. Irwim McGrw-Hill, UnitedStates of America.
Stevenson, J.R., 2011. A revised framework for coupled humanand natural systems, propagating thresholds, and managingenvironmental problems. Phys. Chem. Earth, Parts A/B/C 36(9e11), 342e351.
Swart, R.J., Raskin, P., Robinson, J., 2004. The problem of thefuture: sustainability science and scenario analysis. GlobalEnviron. Change 14 (2), 137e146.
Tibbetts, J., 2005. Combined sewer systems: down, dirty, and outof date. Environ. Health Perspect. 113 (7), A464.
Tsiamis, K., Panayotidis, P., Salomidi, M., Pavlidou, A.,Kleinteich, J., Balanika, K., Kupper, F.C., 2013. Macroalgalcommunity response to re-oligotrophication in SaronikosGulf. Mar. Ecol. Progress Ser. 472, 73e85.
UNEP, 2008. The Blue Plan’s sustainable development outlook forthe Mediterranean. Blue Plan, Sophia Antipolis.
Zalachori, I., Koutsoyiannis, D., Andreadakis, A., 2008. Ainfiltration and inflow in sewer systems: identification andquantification in Greece. Tech. Chron. 28 (1), 43e51.
tionalizing sustainability in urban coastal systems: A system016/j.watres.2013.10.041