Open And The Future Of Wireless

Lift 2008.Geneva.Suisse

Workshop,Led by: Thomas Purves

ThomasPurves.comWirelessNorth.ca

1. Why is wireless important?2. Ulterior motives3. Discussion of “open”4. Discussion of “wireless”5. Discussion of “future”6. Group Exercise: choosing perspectives, and

designing a mobile future

The new last mile The future of computing

Ubiquitous connectivity, the last gap for true cloud computing

The network is the computer (finally?)

Public Policy- Connectivity is a key driver of Culture and media distribution

Economic growth (all sectors)

New possibilities New Spectrum

New Wireless technologies

Issues that matter Accessibility

Openness

Infrastructure – and investment

Net neutrality?

Improving recently, but some of worst data rates in the developed world.

A country of Blackberry addicts, but low accessibility to most advanced devices.

Dominated by On-deck content, low accessibility to open content, open services.

High pricing to consumers, lagging wireless penetration, lagging adoption behaviours

New spectrum Auctions has created opportunities for • New wireless policies • New wireless entrants• New / Disruptive Business models

But new wireless opportunities are not unique to Canada• Discussion - what is wireless like where you are from?

Open Source Open Access Open Networks Open Platforms Open Services Open Applications Open or simple rate plans

Open Phone?

Open Phone?

Open Phone?

Open Enough?

Closed platforms Open

1. Value to the centre Value to the edges

2. Return on investment Return on innovation

3. Controlled. Defacto standards. Fragmentation. Open/choice of standards

4. Tight integration Infinitely extensible

5. Things that Just Work Configuration headaches?

6. Easier to use? Loved only by geeks?

7. Protects incumbents (not full protection) Encourages disruption

8. More secure? More secure?

9. Afforded big companies Enables small companies, collaboration

10. Some people like this one better Some people like this one better – cultural and personal context.

11. Proven business models Uncertain business models

12. Bigger piece of smaller pie Smaller piece of a big pie

3G, EVDO HSPA (3.5G)

3.6MBps

7.2MBps

14.4MBps...

LTE (4G) long term evolution

100/50 Mbps for every 20 MHz of spectrum

200 active users in every 5 MHz cell. (i.e., 200 active data clients)

Sub-5ms ping

Wimax

Fixed wireless now

Mobile on the way

Intel/USA pushing wimax

Wifi a/b/g/n/alphabet soup

Poor for wide areas, roaming, sharing

Could get better?

What else? Ultra wideband?

Mesh networks?

Bluetooth

NFC (RFID)

Unique characteristics of mobile Constant connectivity Time shifting Email is now what you catch up on when you are not at your desk

Secure element and trusted data store Mobile wallet Ticketing / transit DRM (unfortunately)

Location Services Lower cost of entry Gestures Sensors, it can see, it can hear Always with you Non-functional factors Style, status, gadget fetish

But: many limitations of mobile form factor too

Voice SMS Emails (Crackberry) Music Video Social media Payments Appliances / Ubicomp Location based Proximity local network applications Identity Games Gambling Virtual world augmented reality Realtime broadcasting/video sharing Video calling Bluetooth dating and local area social applications Security, safety and health alerts Sports and athletics, training Visual search Travel service, bookings, boarding passes

Most Popular HSPA Device

“Like 3G, only useful ...is more-or-less how I explain to people what an HSDPA modem does. 1.8mb, straight out of the sky, to wherever I happen to be. Awesome.” – flickr user Mo Morgan

Mobile or PC?

Non-traditional network devicesThe IntegratedFuture of Wireless

How do you pay for a network?How do you pay for services on the network?

Options: Bill by the minute Bill by the kilobyte Flat rate to the individual Bundle the network with the device Bundle the network with the service Advertising models Public networks

Who will shape the future of wireless?

Wireless operators Big Products/Brands GE

Big Media companies Military / Security

Independent creators Hotspot providers

Software/Internet giants (MSFT, GOOG) Banks

Apple Tourist industry

Device makers Transport and transit

Policy makers, government

Users (consumers,

Wild Card: The developing world

1. Choose a role• A Government - South American• A Media Company - Disney• Wireless Users - Teenagers• An operator - Orange

2. Choose a killer application3. Choose a business model4. What roles do the others play in your

vision of the future?5. How open is your ideal wireless

future?6. How open is likely wireless future?

Role Future

Disney Real value is content, and relationship to consumer (esp. Kids)Communities for kids, and mine for data on kids and future contentMore opportunities for personalization upload pic and star in a Disney filmNot only mobile, but mobile is important. Work with operators, family subs/bundles. Subscription revenues, and merchDevices somewhat open, but controlled formats.

Orange Killer app: location based services. Connect people on interests and intentions and proximity. Build applications and distribute applications and share revenues. Social networks, keep them inside the network. Only as open as it has to be.

Consumers Undecided about killer apps, user generated content connected to place and time, life streaming, better devices, more applications. Believe openness will drive more innovation. Want to have it cheap or free but no ads either .

Public policy / NGO Set up wireless to help poorest people in South America. Make it sustainable through local control, and federated governing organization. Content and usability locally based. Goals mitigate economic destruction and support economic growth, health care, education, democracy. Donorship is the models. Rules, not totally open, reserve capacity forintended uses as opposed to open access to american media say.

Yes 12 Maybe 7 No: 2

Will Save The internet

Will Destroy the internet

Is poorly understood I don’t understand it

Can be used To double the effective capacity of networks Or for evil

Deep packet analysis In use today by many ISPs Mostly for evil

Vested interest problem When those who own the pipes also sell content