Op Forager Presentation

PREDICTIVE POLICINGThe Optimal Forager and the Missing Dimension

ERIC HALFORD MA

Origin of ThesisNecessity - CSR and funding formulaEfficiency - Drive Towards Evidence Based Policing- How do you apply science to policing to Enhance Use of ResourcesEffectiveness – How to Continue or Maintain Unprecedented Reductions in CrimeEconomy – Better Value for Money Comprehensive performance management literature review

The Literatureo Criminology, Psychology, Policing

o Problem Orientated Policing – Reduction In NHPTs – All But Ceased

o Hotspot Policing – Effective But Need To Evolve

o Intelligence Led Policing – 75% Reduction In Intelligence Sees Framework Collapse

o Predictive Policing – Evolution Not Revolution

o Absence Of Literature On Predictive Policing

o A Lack Of Operational Empirical Literature Across Policing Academia

Predictive Policing

Increased Efficiency and Value For Money:“With predictive policing, we have the tools to put cops at the right place at the right time or bring other services to impact crime, and we can do so with less” (Gascon, 2009).

Predictive PolicingDisparate Attempts to Introduce Across The UKSome Software Centric Approaches – i.e. PredPolPredominately Adopted in The Form of Optimal Forager/Near Repeat Victimisation 9 Potential Case Studies Identified

Predictive PolicingHow The Research Was Done:

3 Wholesale Case Studies20 + Interviews of Practitioners And AnalystsAccess to Crime RecordsQuestionnairesHundreds of Pages of Quantitative Analytical Reports

*Caveat - Access Denied To Study Pilots Using Software Approaches I.E. PredPol Which May Impact on Conclusions

The Optimal Forager• Optimal Forager And Near Repeat – Same

Principles• Pretext Is Simple – Criminals Behave As

Foraging Animals• Foraging Animals Target Areas Low In Risk,

High in Reward – Food is Their Target• Criminals Act in The Same Manner –

Realisable Property is Their Target

The Foraging AnimalRisk =

Energy expenditureTravel Time DistanceProcessing Time

The Foraging CriminalThe Assumption is Criminals Behave As Optimal Foragers

Risk = Travel, Distance, Victim Availability, Time To Sell Stolen Property

BUTHow Do The Police Fit in? Capable GuardianFails to Adequately Address Serial Offending

Op Forager is Fundamentally Flawed

Research Shows That All UK Implementations of Op Forager Assumes a Two Tier InteractionThe Criminal is The PredatorThe Victim is The Prey

Ecology Literature However Identifies It as a Three Tier Interaction (Hugie, 1994 And Sih, 1998)Predator (Police) – Prey (Criminal) – Resource (Victim) Why is This Important?

What Ecology SaysIts OK, Even They Forgot About The Predators!!The Impact of Increased Predation Risk is Consistently Overlooked (Lima, 2005)Increased Predation on Foraging Animals Shows That it Does Not Reduce Or Stop The Animals Foraging (Verdolin, 2005)It Forces The Forager To Alter Their Behaviour In a Number of Ways (Lima, 2002)

Changes in Behaviour1. The Forager Will Alter Their Selected Resource, 2. They Will Reduce The Handling Time3. They Will Increase Their Vigilance In Response To Increased Predation,

Particularly On The Periphery Of Previously Foraged Areas (Kelley Et Al, 2001)

4. Higher ‘Giving Up’ Rate By The Forager Before Ultimately Seeking A New Foraging Patch (Kelly Et Al, 2001).

5. Forager May Also Choose To Begin Searching In Groups Which Provides Additional Security And Early Detection Of Predators (Berkley, 2000)

6. They Will Switch The Foraging Patch (Engelhart And Muller-schwarze 1995; Epple Et Al. 1993; Pfister Et Al. 1990; Sullivan And Crump 1984)

Key Assumption

If It is Accepted That There is a Proven Assumption That the Criminal Operates as a Forager Then Within the Context of Policing the Behavioural Changes of the Criminal Should Manifest Itself in a Number Of Specific Ways (Halford, 2015)

Criminal Behavioural Manifestations1. The Criminal May Change The Type Of Target I.E. From

Dwellings To Business2. Items That They Seek May Change To Ones That Have A Lower

Handling Time 3. The Criminal Will Become More Aware of Increased Police

Presence. As Such the ‘Giving Up’ Rate May Increase 4. Particularly Prevalent at the Edge of Patches or in This Context,

The Predicted 400m Prediction Zones. 5. They May Recruit Assistance – Social Contagion6. Most Significantly, the Criminal Will Simply Change Patch and

Switch Their Activity From One Area to Another

The ResultMinimal, If Any, ‘Overall’ Crime Reduction Or PreventionIf Crime Reduction or Prevention Does Occur it is Only Likely to Be Small, Short Term And Geo-SpecificSignificant Levels of Crime Displacement OccursCan in Fact Increase Overall Crime if Implemented Ineffectively

How to Combat Behavioural Change?

It is Not a One Way InteractionThere Are Behavioural Changes That The Predator Can Make

When A Predator Can Move Between The Area Of The Preys Resource And Natural Habitat, It Directly Impacts On The Prey’s Mortality And Negates Any Antipredator Benefits Of Moving Beyond Their Habitat

(Werner and Gilliam, 1984 and Bouskilla, 1998)

What Does That Mean?If The Police (Predator) Can Operate In Both The Area of the Criminal’s (Prey) Home Or Base (Natural Habitat) And The Area The Criminal Commits Crime (The Foraging Patch) And Seeks Their Victims (Resource)……..……They Stand A Significantly Greater Chance Of Apprehending Or Deterring Them Completely (Increased Mortality)

How Can We Do That?• Traditional Hotspot Policing AKA – Crime

Spikes• The Standalone Optimal Forager Predictive

Approach• The Wider Hotspot ‘PredPol’ Approach• Or, Something Entirely New?• A Combined Predictive Model

TRADITIONAL OR PREDICTED HOTSPOT APPROACH

Traditional Hot-spot or Predicted Forager Locality

Traditional or Predicted Hotspot Approach

Both Cause Crime DisplacementBoth Rely on Intelligence to Operate within the ‘Natural Habitat’However, some UK forces have experienced up to a 75% reduction in intel 2005-2015

Both End Up ‘Rounding Up the Usual Suspects’Is the Current NIM Framework Even Effective Anymore?

THE WIDER ‘PREDPOL’ HOTSPOT

The Wider ‘PredPol’ Hotspot• Refers To Crime Displacement as a Myth• Operates On The Assumption That There Are

Two Types of Crime Hot Spots That React Differently to Increased Policing

• One That Relocates (Due To Crime Displacement)

• Another That Dissolves (Super Critical Hotspot)

……”You can’t just go and suppress all those small spikes in crime; you’re going to suppress the big hot spot……the small spikes in crime

that are out there in the environment are ready to nucleate into a new one.. However, the larger,

subcritical hot spots do not re-emerge after increased policing”

(Brantingham, 2006)

Translated = Unpalatable. You Probably Need a Big Budget And Lots of Resources Dedicated to Patrol Saturation

A Combined Predictive Model

EVOLUTION NOT REVOLUTIONPredicts Locality of Both Crime and Offender

Optimal Forager Crime Location Predictions Geographical Profiling to Predict the Serial Offenders Likely Home or Base

Purely Evidence Based and Scientific

GEOGRAPHICAL PROFILING DEFINITION

“An investigative technique used to

determine the most likely location of a

criminal’s residence based upon the

geographic location of crime sites”

(Prof. David L. Wiesenthal, 2012)

THE COMBINED PREDICTIVE MODEL

The StepsOffences Committed

Crime Linkage Analysis Identifies Serial Offending and Linked Crimes

Geographically Profile Linked Offences – Predict Offenders Habitat

Optimal Forager Analysis – Predict Future Crime Area

Traditional Policing Techniques – Subsequent Use of Resources To Target the Profiled Area and Suspects

The Predicted ResultEnhanced Focus on T&C of Finite ResourcesEvidence Basis for Target SelectionEvidence Basis for Priority Offender ManagementGreater ‘Overall’ Crime Reduction and Prevention Potential

The Potential BlockersTraining is Key – Staff Must Understand the TheoryThe Human Factor – Staff Must ‘Buy In’ for SuccessSenior Managers – Attitude and Support Will Make it Stand or Fall

The FutureMore Effective Ways to Link Crimes

Better Use of Big Data and Predictive Analytics

Predict Offenders Before They Offend

Intervention Pathways

SIMPLE'S!ANY QUESTIONS?