Online: Is it the next lily pad? - TNS Canadatnscanada.ca/files/Online-Is-it-the-next-lilly-pad.pdf · Online: Is it the next lily pad? This is not the kind of presentation some of

Online:Is it the next lily pad?

Online:Is it the next lily pad?

This is not the kind of presentation some of you are used to seeing delivered by a research supplier

Sit back, relax and please hold your questions

All major marketing research companies are publically traded

There is a belief that TNS and all private sector suppliers have a vested interest that influences our position and design recommendations

Yes, we have a vested interest, because we want to

keep your business and we need to be profitable

However, the industry has a much bigger stake in the relevance and value of the data we provide

Our reputation is influenced by the quality of decisions that are made with the data we deliver

We have all had experience with shoot the messenger and

we should not not allow ourselves to be gunned down

This means congruence between the method of data

collection and application of the information

Results matterAt a minimum, the data we release have to be internally consistent and

capable of gauging relative change odifference

But, it is sometimes critical for data tobe projectable within known limits

And the currency has

to be STABLE

Your suppliers must have an expressed STRATEGYto stay ahead of the curve.

They must commit to the heavy investment needed to deliver the best data to the task at hand …and in the context of shrinking client budgets and time frames

We must be prepared to SOLVEproblems that

we do not even know are problems yet

And to USE

technologies that do not yet exist

In an environment where CHANGE is taking place

at lightning speed

There are more than 2.9 billion

Google searches a month

The number of text messages sent and received in a single day

exceeds the population of the entire planet

A week’s worth of New York Times has more information than a person was likely to come

across in a lifetime in the 18th century

The new information

generated this year aloneis more than in the previous 5000 years

That’s why marketing research companies have been merging and agglomerating at

break-neck speed over the past several years

And our clients benefit from this depth and breadthof experience

Virtually all major marketing research firms have a global strategy to move

as much work as quickly as possible to the Internet

Today, that is the best way that these publically traded goliaths can deliver the biggest returnto their investors, and guarantee share-price appreciation

That is why suppliers has developed proprietary

panel management TOOLS

Investments in technology and Internet access panels are substantial

And it is clear that the maintenance and development costs needed to remain leading-edge are escalating

Supplier would benefitfrom transitioning clients to

online data collection

Because wewould make more money, and life would be a lot easier

Managing telephone and door-to-door interviewers isHUGELY difficult and HUGELY expensive

It is widely recognizedthat all marketing research

is not the same

There are two general types

of marketing research

First:

broad-brush research that is executed almost routinely for manufacturers and service providers

Broad-brush research is done to gauge consumer reactions and to get a sense of opinion and relative difference

Primarily, to help give direction to marketers of products and services

There could be wide variance on the data gathered,

but the downside is minimal and the results do not have to

be projectable

The consequences are

The second kind is quite different

It includes certain program-evaluation studies, media audience measurement, and precise calibration studies

In all corners of theglobe, sophisticatedtechnical-mindedresearch professionalsare fixated on how toobtain accurate measurement on these types of studies –how to get all of those angels on the head of the pin

Getting it wrong puts clients out of business

The consequences are life threatening

The fundamental difference between how these two general types of research are executed is HUGELYimportant

Precise calibration studies, such as NADbank and PMB audience measurement, use random samples, with known probabilities of selection

They are representative and projectable, and the results tend to be stable over time

Since these studies are replicable – we expect to get the same results if they are repeated

Other forms of research are typically conducted using quota samples, be it in malls, on the phone, by panel, (mail or internet)

These samples are self-selectingconvenience samples with no known probability of selection for participants

They are not necessarily representative or projectable

But studies of this type represent the bulk of the workthat marketing research companies do

SO Internet panels have received a tremendous amount of attention from suppliers and clients alike.

They are bothCHEAP andPROFITABLE

$$$$$

There is incessant buzzabout Internet research

The industry talks about little else

And we get, and contribute to all the buzz

Canada is blessed with a very polite population and random

sampling is relatively easy

Perhaps as a consequence, even within the broad-brush arena panel samples or quota samples were always looked upon as cheap alternatives in Canada

But Canada is greatly influenced by the U.S. where panels have always

been widely used

Since they were so common, it was not a big leap to move from panel based

research to interactive panels

Quota samples are quota samples, after all

Therefore, the buzz is tremendous about interactive panels in the U.S. and it has permeated Canadian airwaves

We all hear, endlessly

Internet surveys are the answer to all our timing and cost problems

And the mediais in on the hoax

Send us your views

Ten minutes later –here are the results of the CBS poll

The consequences are

Internet research solves all survey problems and can be used for all kinds of research in all circumstances

All that buzz is countered byless audible voices from professionals,

who work in major research corporations, and who repeatedly SAY:

Internet research DOES NOT replace research where random

samples are employed and needed

With convenience samples

and Internet panels are convenience samples

the bias is simplynot knowable or understandable

Even in the U.S., Internet panels are not being used

to do precise audience measurement

Internet research is fast and cheap

Telephone sampling is slow and antiquated

Yes, it is becoming increasingly difficult to gain co-operation on the telephone

Yes, cell phones are increasing in popularity and there is some migration away from land lines,especially among youth

Yes, household call screening technology makes it increasingly difficult to cover the population

Many of these difficulties can be overcome while retaining the advantages of probability sampling

…but at a cost$$$$$

Panel samples are quota samples and are not

necessarily representative

For some research purposes, panel response rates, really, cooperation rates

are largely meaningless, since there is no statistical probability of measurement

involved at the outset

There is evidence that some Internet panels do not even match the wired population in general

That is, the differences observed are not just expected differences between those with and without Internet access

This may not matter for many research purposes, but it is important to recognize that

sometimes it does

And it is not because they are not representative of the population in terms of their

age or sex or education or income

Even when we make them look the same demographically,

their consumption patterns, lifestylesand attitudes may be different

And even if these panels were representative

They cannot be used in many markets

That’s because Internet coverage and broadband

access is an issue in many countries and regions

And mixed mode, while possible, is not without another set of issues that have to be addressed

So what does all this mean?

At this point in time…

There are no LILY PADS

There is no PANACEA

We must choose withthought and care