Uno, Nessuno, Centomila Progetti Gaetano Mazzanti @mgaewsj Agile42 One, No One & One Hundred Thousand Projects
Jan 15, 2015
Uno, Nessuno, Centomila Progetti
Gaetano Mazzanti @mgaewsj Agile42
One, No One & One Hundred Thousand Projects
“fare, fare. fare per fare, senza vedere neppure
quello che fate, perché lo fate”
“doing, doing. doing just for the sake of it,
without even seeing what you are doing,
why you are doing it”
L.Pirandello
one product/project
many projects/initiatives
no project (continuous delivery, support, maintenance, …)
same(wrong?)questions, difficult/wrong/no
answers
?!
how much will it cost ?!
how long will it take ?!
who will work on that ?!
what to do next ?!
what options do we have
?!
what will be the value
?!
what is the cost of delay
?!
why ?!the key question
it all boil down to
economic based decisions
should
$$$
however…
he who yells the loudest…
HIPPO
HIghest Paid Person Opinion
EUROPE DEMANDS IT CUSTOMER
AN IMPORTANT
push
build
measure learn
planning fallacy
100% utilization
myth
the end result is…
multitasking
queues
firefighting
failure & frustration
so?
economic based decisions
a transparent mechanism for balancing
demand and supply with a clear
selection mechanism
$$$
if you can’t see it you can’t it manage
understand the system
do you really know where you are? what’s going on?
make work visible
source Pawel Brodzinski
expose dysfunctions
demand
capacity
balance
limit WIP
WIP limits
source David J Anderson
force conver
sations abou
t
what to…
work on now
postpone
drop
service oriented mindset
service delivery
implies flow
let work flow let work flow
pizza delivery
fast delivery
accuracy and quality
predictability
what matters to customers
metrics that matter
matter to customers
no yes
end-to-end
functional
most are
here!
visualize flow
ideas elaborate do delivered validate
B C
D
F E
A
visualize flow
B
C
D
F E
A
ideas elaborate do delivered validate
measure flow
B
C D F
E
A
ideas elaborate do delivered validate
G
H
I
flow efficiency
flow efficiency = touch time / lead time usually really bad (5%-20%) i.e. lead time = 10 days, touch time = 2 days
B
C D F
E
A
ideas elaborate do delivered validate
G
H
I
Z Z Z Z Z
(flawed)flow
Z Z Z Z Z
Z Z Z Z Z
Z Z Z Z Z
decision making in uncertainty
balance:
risk/return
short term/long term
etc.
decisionsrisk
knowledge
time
decisions… when?
keep your options open
pull
selection vs
prioritization
selection
what to do next
what to finish next
?!
Cost of Delay
A
Delay Cost B
A duration
B duration
A CoD
B CoD
Duration Cost of Delay
CoD / T
A 5 3 0.6 B 2 2 1
If CoDA/ TA ≤ CoDB / TB
do B first
Cost of Delay
A
Delay Cost B
A duration
B duration
A CoD
B CoD
B
A Delay Cost
Duration Cost
of Delay
CoD / T
A 5 3 0.6
B 2 2 1
TA* CoDB = 10 TB* CoDA = 6
“fine, but what’s in it for me?”
what about humans?
we decide collaboratively
we share/show progress
we create a safe to fail environment
required
experiment: measure & learn
build
measure learn
many small steps,
some are discarded
others embraced
from
to?
to…
to?
to?
no known destination
sorry, there are
no best practices!
if humans are involved the domain is complex
more in depth…
demand analysis
where does work come from?
how is value assigned (and verified) to initiatives?
is arrival rate predictable? (usually not)
estimating & forecasting
?!
probabilistic forecasting
reduce estimation effort (guesses) using historical data connect risks impact/likelihood to tracking
check Troy Magennis’ work
control chart
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
average cycletime
UCL
LCL
cycle time
knowledge work has high variability
time!
CFD Cumulative Flow Diagram
“Houston…”
monitoring progress
90% complete
remaining 10% could take forever
is usually meaningless
90% of what?
monitoring progress
time
output
cost of delay & classes of service
cost
time
cost
time
cost
time
classes of service, WIP, expedite lane
D
H
J I
F B
A E C
6
M L K 2
1
1
O
Q
N
P
EXPEDITE LANE
G
ideas elaborate do delivered validate
limiting WIP
by # of initiatives (size matters)
by size
by team capacity
by space available
by conversation
…
limiting WIP
by # of initiatives (size matters)
by size
by team capacity
by space available
by conversation
…
limit WIP by team capacity / space available
staff liquidity
no dependencies on specific people allocate people with fewest options first people with most options coach and help others
enough…
ask yourself the right questions
?!
One No One One Hundred Thousand Projects
inspired by Joakim Sunden