On the Nature of Global Change Professor John Harrington, Jr. ([email protected]) Department of Geography, Kansas State University Planet Under Pressure Mar 2012 London International Conference on Adaptation May 2012 Tucson Climate Change: Impacts & Responses Jul 2012 Seattle
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On the Nature of Global Change Professor John Harrington, Jr. ([email protected]) Department of Geography, Kansas State University Planet Under Pressure.
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Unprecedented Types, Rates, Scales, Combinations, and the
Magnitude of ChangePlanetary Destabilization
“… the Earth system is now operating
in a ‘no-analogue state’.”
2004
Symptoms of human induced global changeSymptoms of human induced global change::- warming- rapid change in surface appearance (LUCC)- changes in chemical indicators (nitrogen)- change in gaseous composition (atmos)- loss of key biotic components - new organisms have been introduced - rapid depletion of stored reserves (water)- rapid depletion of stored reserves (energy)- the rate of change is increasing
1973 1999
Climate change is part of something
bigger
Global Change– Global climate change (CO2 & global weirding)– Air pollution (gross insults & micro toxicity)– Shrinking glaciers & loss of Arctic sea ice– Population growth and resource consumption– Land use change – deforestation for agric.– Water resources (reservoirs & irrigation)– Ocean acidification, sea level rise, coral reefs– Loss of biodiversity (major extinction event)– New ideas to hopefully change the conversation
• Ecological Footprints and Overshoot (1.5 Earths)• Ecosystem services (externalities and “the commons”)• Sustainability Science Vulnerability, Resilience• Planetary Boundaries The Anthropocene• Planetary Stewardship The Wildland Garden• Earth Hour (late March)
The more you read in this subject area, the more you understand the multiple connections, the
complexity, and just how hard it will be to make the changes needed for a sustainable transition
Oxfam2012
Annual cycle – drivenby summer vegetation greenup in the Northern Hemisphere
Lower values at theend of the growingseason
CO2 levels are now at 394 ppm (up 39.6%)CO2 levels were at
315ppm at the start of
the Mauna Loa record.
The CO2 level for
pre-industrial times
was 280 ppm.
Understanding the Earth system (feedbacks and response times)
indicates that there is more to come
• Warmer areas on Earth will emit slightly shorter wavelengths and water vapor is the main GHG
• Cooler areas on Earth will emit slightly longer wavelength energy and CO2 is the main GHG
Global pattern of temperature anomalies for 2000-2009 compared with the 1950-1980
base period.More CO2 and cold places warm up.
Images of change in alpine glacial ice from Africa and North AmericaImages of change in alpine glacial ice from Africa and North America
Mount Kilimanjaro
Glacier National Park
The loss of Arctic Sea ice.
The loss of Arctic Sea ice.
Human Dimensions of Global ChangeLand Use ChangeLand Use Change
More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850.
Cultivated Systems in 2000 cover 25% of the terrestrial surface
Unprecedented Change: Biomes
Land use change different directions in different regions
Rates of ecosystem conversion remain high or are increasing for specific ecosystems and regions
Ecosystems in some regions are returning to conditions similar to their pre-conversion states
“The Human Footprint and the Last of the Wild”
E. Sanderson et al. 2002 BioScience
Last Child in the Woods
There is a human footprint on 83%
of the land.
Anthropogenic Biomes of the WorldUrban & dense settlements
*Mosaic: >25% tree cover mixed with > 25% pasture and/or cropland
Croplands 31 Residential irrigated cropland
32 Residential rainfed mosaic
33 Populated irrigated cropland
34 Populated rainfed cropland 35 Remote croplands
Rangelands 41 Residential rangelands
42 Populated rangelands
43 Remote rangelands
Wildlands 61 Wild forests
62 Sparse trees
63 Barren
Forested 51 Populated forests
52 Remote forests
*
Ellis & Ramankutty
– 5 to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term accessible supplies (low to medium certainty)
– 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty)
Changes in Water ResourcesChanges in Water Resources
A period of rapid and unprecedented global change
The Green Revolution:genetics, fertilizer, tractors, & irrigation
“turning oil into food”
The pace of growth is slowing
Made it in Oct 2011
How do we feed the next 2 billion?
Consilience = a fancy way to describe how science is changing
• E.O. Wilson’s 1999 book, Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge - provided a powerful restatement of the importance of linking major areas of scholarly thought
• C.P Snow’s 1959 lecture: The Two Cultures - major thesis was: that the breakdown in communication between the sciences and the humanities was a major barrier to solving the world's problems
Four cultures: new synergies for engaging society, MC Nisbet et al., 2010, Frontiers in Ecology. Vol 8(6): 329-331.
Consilience: Biocomplexity
• Biocomplexity = the study of complex structures and behaviors that arise from nonlinear
interactions of biotic agents and abiotic factors, across multiple scales
• Biocomplexity was introduced as a new initiative at NSF for funding integrative projects in
the late 1990s by Rita Colwell• Rita Colwell was NSF Director from 1998 – 2004
The role of women in scientific discourse is critically important
Reciprocal Effects & Feedback LoopsNonlinearity and ThresholdsSurprisesLegacy Effects and Time LagsResilienceHeterogeneity
New framings and new questions
NSF now has SEES
• Achieving a sustainable human future in the face of both gradual and abrupt environmental change is one of the most significant challenges facing humanity
• All eleven NSF Directorates and Offices have joined together to support Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability (SEES)
• Requests for proposals in: “sustainable chemistry”
Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability
“… sole authors did produce the papers of singular distinction in science and engineering and social science in the 1950s, but the mantle of extraordinarily cited work has passed to teams by 2000.” (p. 1038)
It takes about a year of working together to establish a good team
life supporting
resources
declining
consumption of life supporting
resources
rising
we are in what E.O. Wilson
(in 2002) referred to as “the bottleneck”
Can global leaders find a way to addressa long-term and global problem?
Two ‘imperatives’ work against a solution
The imperative of the present Topophilia = love of place; we need geophilia or gaiaphilia
The imperative of the local
“The relative indifference to the environment springs, I believe, from deep within human nature. The human
brain evidently evolved to commit itself emotionally only to a small piece of geography, a limited band of kinsmen,
and two or three generations into the future.” E.O. Wilson 2002
Science and engineering enable new technologies that accompany change
There is a need to move toward sustainability
“To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
Buckminster Fuller
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.”