G C Rieber Climate Institute Nansen Center, Bergen, Norway On the climate challenge and north- south technology collaboration Helge Drange [email protected] www.bjerknes.uib.no
Mar 23, 2020
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
On the climate challenge and north-south technology collaborationHelge [email protected]
www.bjerknes.uib.no
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Outline
1) Global climate: Status
2) Climate change → adaptation
3) Examples – Typhoons & hurricanes– Rain / drought – Heatwaves – Sea level rise – Ocean acidification
4) Technology collaboration
5) Summary
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Today
(Ensemble Mean IPCC 4AR, Scenario A2)
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
1 – Mitigation
2 – Adaptation
3 – Responsibility
4 – Opportunities
Today
(Ensemble Mean IPCC 4AR, Scenario A2)
3 mill yr
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Observed global change in temperature (1870-2007)
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
Why warming?The 12 warmest years have all occurred during the last
13 years
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
CO2 (ppm)
0°C
-8°C
280 ppm
200 ppm
5.8°C
1.4°C
960 ppm
550 ppm
Temperatur (oC)
CO2 (ppm)
0°C
-8°C
280 ppm
200 ppm
5.8°C
1.4°C
960 ppm
550 ppm
Temperatur (oC)
650,000 år 1850 2008 2100850,000 år 1850
Observed and projected atmospheric CO2
• Today: Highest level in 850.000 years
• 2100: Likely highest level in 20 million years
The main reason for the increase is burning of coal, oil and gas (2/3rds), and deforestration (1/3rd)
850,000 år
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Solar irradiance and cosmic radiation cannot explain the observed warming during the recent decades, increased
GHGs can
But solar irradiance, the distance between the Earth and Sun, and the tilt of the Earth´s rotation
axis govern climate variations in the past
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Observed global change in temperature (1870-2007)
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
Future?
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
IPCC temperature scenarios
IPCC 2007
Requires >50% reduced GLOBAL emissions by 2050, and much larger reductions thereafter
+ 3 ºC: Irreversible changes
+ 2 ºC wrt to 1850: EU-target
+4 ºC: With todays emissions
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
(GtC
y-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010:
A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61
Observed2000-2006 3.3%
20062005
Em
issi
ons
Gt-C
per
yr
www.globalcarbonproject.org
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
SRES B1: Ca. 50%
reduction by 2050
IPCC Temperature scenarios, 2090-99 vs 1980-99
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
SRES B1: Ca. 50%
reduction by 2050
SRES A2: Business-as-usual
IPCC Temperature scenarios, 2090-99 vs 1980-99
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Outline
1) Global climate: Status
2) Climate change → adaptation
3) Examples – Typhoons & hurricanes– Rain / drought – Heatwaves – Sea level rise – Ocean acidification
4) Technology collaboration
5) Summary
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Global temperature, IPCC AR4
Multiple stresses
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Comined effect: Population↑ + Exisiting infrastructure + T↑ + P↑↓ + Glaciers↓ + SLH↑ + ...
Variability↑↓ hhh(frequency, intensity, duration)
Food/water availability/quality
Are climate / human society / ecosystems heading towards thresholds?
Multiple stresses
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Stable situation = known climate
Unstable situationUnstable, often unknown and possibly irreversible situation
A new climate state: Regime shift
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Outline
1) Global climate: Status
2) Climate change → adaptation
3) Examples – Typhoons & hurricanes– Rain / drought – Heatwaves – Sea level rise – Ocean acidification
4) Technology collaboration
5) Summary
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
1 Sep 2005: Typhoon Talim (Isang), Force 4
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
6 Sep 2005: Super Typhoon Nabi (Jolina), Force 5
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
11 Sep 2005: Typhoon Khanun (Kiko), Force 4
Western Norway, 14 September 2005
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
14 Sep 2005
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Slides in Norway on 14 November, 2005
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Expected change in rainfall (SRES A1B)
Wetter DryerDryer
Trigger conflicts, influence food production and supply
Climate refugees
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Heat wave in south and
central Europe, August 2003
London
Paris
Madrid
Rome
Oslo
Lasted for two weeks
∼30.000 fatalities
Failure in power supply
Excessive melting of mountain glaciers
Loss: 100 billion RMB
Naturally occurring every ∼400 year
What about the future?
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y (1
961-
1990
) (°C
)
Year
Stott et al. (2004)
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway Year
Stott et al. (2004)Te
mpe
ratu
re a
nom
aly
(196
1-19
90) (
°C) Are we prepared?
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Major Rivers in China are oriented East-West, as are the major weather systems
Yellow River
Yangtze River
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Dried-up days observed in Li-Jin Station of the Yellow River (1972-1997)
from www.yellowriver.org
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995I I I I I
“君不见黄河之水天上来,奔流到海不复回”(李白)Source: Tianjun Zhou
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Foto: Jan M. Lillebø, Bergens Tidende
Sea level
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Muir Glacier, AlaskaAugust 1941 August 2004
Many examples
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Glacier in the Khangschung walley E of Mt Everest, Tibet Photo 25 July 2005 by Harry Jans (from John Birks)
Glaciers as fresh water source
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Estimated global mean sea level change (cm)
Based on Rahmstorf (2006)
A2A1BB1
IPCC (2007): Up to 50+ cm
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Estimated global mean sea level change (cm)
Based on Rahmstorf (2006)
A2A1BB1
Between 55-110 cm
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Sea level
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
283
Gt C
• Ocean uptake of CO2 leads to reduced pH-value -throughout the world oceans - and particularly in cold waters• Poorly known - but potentially severe - implications for the marine ecosystems• Lowered pH will last >1000 years
58 %
42 %
Oceanic uptake of man-made CO2
(for 1800-1994)
Marland et al, 2003 og Sabine et al., 2004
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Outline
1) Global climate: Status
2) Climate change → adaptation
3) Examples – Typhoons & hurricanes– Rain / drought – Heatwaves – Sea level rise – Ocean acidification
4) Technology collaboration
5) Summary
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Technology transfer north/south
1. Mitigation technologies (reduced emissions both in north and south)
2. Adaptation technologies1. Is a part of the Kyoto protocol and Kyoto process
2. May become part of the post-Kyoto negotiations in Copenhagen, December 2009 (e.g. China)
70% of accumulated GHG emissions originate from N-America + Europe + Japan
Major emitters have a major responsibility
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Technology transfer north/south
2. Mitigation technologies
Reduced emissions absolutely needed – both in developed and developing countries – to limit global warming
Leap-frogging; developing countries can base new system on lessons learned in developed countries
Business opportunities; build-up climate friendly knowledge and technology for a global market
Major challenge: Governmental and corporate collaboration (technology may exisit, but may not be used)
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
Technology transfer north/south
2. Adaptation technologiesWater availability and qualityFood availability and security
Societal security, extreme weather Roads, buildings, communication, crops,
slides, flooding, ....Mapping Prevention Monitoring Forecasting Warning Rescuing Rebuilding
G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway
SummaryHuman activities do change climate
Climate will continue to change irrespective of mitigation measures – adaptation needed
It´s a climate catastrophy if China, India, Brazil and Mexico reach the fossil fuel-based energy consumption of
N-America, Europe and Japan
It´s a climate catastrophy if the GHG-emissions from N-America, Europe and Japan continue without big reductions
50% global cut by 2050 is required to meet the two-degrees target; possibly 70-80% cut in the GHG emissions from developed countries
Global emissions need to point down in 5-10 years from now