180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com 1 MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President [email protected]416.960.9603 On Day 1, Conservatives Have Slight Lead On Liberals Toronto, September 11th, – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1001 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, a third (36.3%) say they would support the Conservatives, while a similar proportion (32.4%) say they would support the Liberals. 1 in 10 (11.6%) say they would support the Greens, while a similar proportion (8.6%) say they would support the NDP. About 1 in 20 (4.1%) say they would support the BQ, while a similar proportion would support the PPC (4.9%). Few (2.1%) are supporting another party. If these results were projected into seats, we expect a Conservative Minority with 168 seats to 138 Liberal. The NDP would win 16, the BQ would win 11, and the Green would win 5. The PPC and other parties project to win none. Environment and Economy continue to lead as top issues % Feb 27 - 28, 2019 April 3 - 6, 2019 June 28 - 30, 2019 July 26- 28, 2019 September 11, 2019 Sample 1301 1634 1812 1733 1001 Environment 15 21 26 26 22.8 Economy 26 28 25 25 22.8 Healthcare 17 13 16 14 15 Taxes 12 12 8 8 10.5 Education 8 7 6 7 8.4 Immigration 10 5 8 8 7.7 Housing 4 5 5 5 3.9 Public Safety 3 3 2 2 3.2 Something else 6 6 5 5 5.7 “On Day 1 we see the Conservatives resume their lead, but it's only slight,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The environment and the economy continue to lead as issues foremost to Canadians right now. How the campaign shifts to match these issues, and how the parties address them, will be fascinating to watch."
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On Day 1, Conservatives Have Slight Lead On Liberals · Conservatives resume their lead, leaning, a third (36.3%) say they would support the Conservatives, while a match these issues,
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On Day 1, Conservatives Have Slight Lead On Liberals
Toronto, September 11th, – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by
The Forum Poll™ among 1001 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and
leaning, a third (36.3%) say they would support the Conservatives, while a similar proportion (32.4%) say they would support the Liberals. 1 in 10 (11.6%) say they would support the Greens, while a similar proportion (8.6%) say they would support the NDP. About 1 in 20 (4.1%) say they would support the BQ, while a similar proportion would support the PPC (4.9%). Few (2.1%) are supporting another party. If these results were projected into seats, we expect a Conservative Minority with 168 seats to 138 Liberal. The NDP would win 16, the BQ would win 11, and the Green would win 5. The PPC and other parties project to win none.
Environment and Economy continue to lead as top issues
% Feb 27 - 28, 2019 April 3 - 6, 2019 June 28 - 30, 2019 July 26- 28, 2019 September 11,
“On Day 1 we see the Conservatives resume their lead, but it's only slight,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The environment and the economy continue to lead as issues foremost to Canadians right now. How the campaign shifts to match these issues, and how the parties address them, will be fascinating to watch."
Economy, Healthcare, and Taxes biggest second issues The economy (16.6%), Healthcare (15.7%), and Taxes (14.4%). The environment (11.6%) and no second issue (12.1%) follow behind. Education (9.8%) and immigration (7.3%) are next. Housing (5.5%), public safety (4.1%), and something else (2.8%) bring up the rear. “On Day 1 we see the Conservatives resume their lead, but it's only slight,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The environment and the economy continue to lead as issues foremost to Canadians right now. How the campaign shifts to match these issues, and how the parties address them, will be fascinating to watch."
The Forum Poll™ was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1001 randomly selected Canadians across the country. The poll was conducted on September 11, 2019.
Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20, measured as the average deviation across all response categories. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp
Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data.
This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Actual results depend on the parties’ ability to get their voters out. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto.
With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll™ and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at forumpoll.com. Top2/Btm2 (or 3 or 4 where applicable) refers to the combined results of the most answered positive and negative responses:
Top 3 here collects very satisfied, satisfied, and somewhat satisfied into one category, and Btm 3 collects very dissatisfied, dissatisfied, and somewhat dissatisfied. Due to rounding some numbers may not add up to 100
Decided Leaning If a federal election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time? Age/gender