Omnium Gatherum Why the death of Hugo is not as big a deal … · 2013-03-07 · Why the death of Hugo is not as big a deal today, as it would have been just a few short years ago.
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Monday, March 04 -- For a third week in a row, ethanol
futures ended a Friday on a cheerful note, but unlike the
prior two weeks, where trading was lower heading into
Friday, last week the market traded with a bullish skew
through the entire week. However, ethanol pricing was
mixed relative to feedstocks. For a third straight week
the contract for April delivery rose against the
corresponding RBOB gasoline contract, while for an eighth
straight week the market for May delivery gained on the
corresponding market for New York sugar. On the other
hand, ethanol for May delivery lost ground on Chicago
corn for the first time in two months.
At the same time, 2013 ethanol RINs continued to surge.
Last week the market finished at a record $0.56/RIN for
corn-based ethanol. In the process, the differential
between 2013/12 RINs more than doubled to minus
$0.100/RIN. Finally, the average physical crush in Illinois
(prompt f.o.b. ethanol in Chicago and DDGs less the bid
for №2 yellow corn) jumped to an eight-month high of
$1.902/bu.
Cash markets were higher last week, with West Coast
ethanol posting the largest week-on-week gain in the
regional market areas. Ethanol out west bounced back by
6½ cents to average ≈$2.588 per gallon while the
Chicago market posted the smallest gain, up 3.44 cents to
a ≈$2.391 per gallon average.
The DOE data for the week ended February 22nd showed
production of conventional gasoline w/ethanol rising 0.6%
to 5.19 MMb/d with the amount of finished gasoline
required to supply the market rising 1.9% to 8.60 MMb/d.
The adjusted moving average for the March 2013 ethanol
futures market rose 0.8% to $2.368.
Meanwhile, last week CBOT corn for March delivery turned
sharply higher last week, thereby signaling a potential
bullish trend. As far as this week goes, we have turned
our focus onto the market for May delivery. In this
respect, bids through 713.25 alert to follow-through
momentum towards our 715.50 upper inflection-point.
Above here we will look for momentum towards out
722.50 weekly limit. On the other hand, offers through
703.75 alerts to further corrective weakness towards our
701.50 lower inflection-point. We will look for offers
below here towards our 694.75 lower weekly limit.
Finally, last week the NYBOT sugar contract for May 2013
delivery traded up to 6 ticks above our 18.53 initial
tipping point on Thursday, but then faded to finish the
week 3 ticks below our 17.78 lower tipping point. As far
as this week goes, offers through 17.57 alerts to follow-
through momentum towards our 17.40 weekly inflection-
point. Below here we will look for offers towards our
16.90 lower week limit. On the other hand, a rebound
through 18.26 clears a path towards our 18.42 upper
weekly inflection-point. We will look for momentum
above here towards our 18.92 upper limit.
COAL
BIOFUELS
WEEKLY OUTLOOK (Mar 04 to 08)
ICE BRENT… strength above the 30-day pivot moving average at 112.04 alerts to follow-through momentum towards our 112.75 weekly inflection point. We will look for bids above here towards our 115.10 weekly limit. On the other hand, offers through last week's 109.82 low print clears a path towards our 108.05 inflection-point. Below here we will look for momentum towards our 105.70 lower limit. NYMEX WTI… strength above last week's 94.46 high print alerts to follow-through momentum towards our 92.67 weekly inflection point. We will look for bids above here towards our 94.66 weekly limit. On the other hand, offers through the 200-day pivot moving average at 90.36 clear a path towards our 88.69 inflection-point. Below here we will look for momentum towards our 86.70 lower limit. NYMEX HEATING OIL… bids through last week's Fibonacci 24% retracement at 297.29 opens the door to our 300.62 weekly inflection point. Above here we look for bids to our 308.24 weekly limit. Then again, offers past 2012's
291.38 midpoint clears a path to our 285.40 lower inflection point. Below here the bears are in position to shoot for our 277.78 lower limit. NYMEX RBOB… strength above the midpoint from w/e 28-Sep at 316.26 alerts to follow-through strength towards our 322.20 weekly inflection point. Above here we will look for momentum towards our 331.53 weekly limit. On the other hand, offers through last week's 306.87 Fibonacci 76% retracement cautions for further weakness towards our 303.52 lower inflection point. Below here we look for offers towards our 294.19 lower limit. ICE GASOIL… a drop below the 901.00 low print from the w/e 14-Dec alerts to weakness towards our 893.5 inflection low. Below here we look to our 866.25 intra-week low. Then again, strength above channel resistance at 946.99 opens the door to our 947.5 inflection high. Through here the bulls look to our 974.75 intra-week high. NYMEX NATURAL GAS… bids through last week's 3.554 high print clear a path towards our 3.623 weekly inflection-point. Above here we will look for momentum towards our 3.790 upper limit. On the other hand, offers through last week's 3.320 low print alert to follow through weakness towards our 3.289 lower inflection point. We will look for weakness below here towards our 3.122 weekly limit.
A note about the Ibis: The Ibis folklore has it that other birds look to the Ibis for leadership. The Ibis uses its
instinct to detect danger. It is the last sign of wildlife to take shelter before a hurricane hits, giving warning that
danger is imminent. As the storm passes the Ibis is the first to reappear, a sign the clear skies are