Ojoyi: Integrated scenario approach in addressing climate change uncertainties in Wami Ruvu Catchment, Tanzania

Supervisors

Prof GPW Jewitt

Prof H. Mahoo

Integrated Scenario Approach in addressing climate change uncertainties

in Wami Ruvu Catchment, Tanzania

Mercy Mwanikah Ojoyi

• IntroductionIntroduction•Goal & ObjectivesGoal & Objectives

•MethodsMethods•Data AnalysisData Analysis

•ResultsResults•DiscussionsDiscussions•ConclusionsConclusions

•AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Outline of Research Paper

IntroductionIntroduction

• Climate change is recognized as a risk to Climate change is recognized as a risk to peoples’ livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa peoples’ livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa (IPCC 2007)(IPCC 2007)

• Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing significant Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing significant variability in temperature, rainfall, LGP variability in temperature, rainfall, LGP resulting to frequent floods & droughts resulting to frequent floods & droughts (Thornton et al. 2006)(Thornton et al. 2006)

• Some of the sectors affected include: Some of the sectors affected include: agriculture, water catchments & natural agriculture, water catchments & natural ecosystem functions (NAPA 2007)ecosystem functions (NAPA 2007)

• Pressure is exerted on land leading to Pressure is exerted on land leading to negative rapid changes on resources thus negative rapid changes on resources thus affecting people’s livelihoodsaffecting people’s livelihoods

Climate Change Projections Climate Change Projections

• By 2080, approx. 1300 million exposed to By 2080, approx. 1300 million exposed to hunger scenarioshunger scenarios

• Africa, will be heavily compromised by CC Africa, will be heavily compromised by CC ImpactsImpacts

• Decrease in LGPsDecrease in LGPs

• Reduction in yields by 2020Reduction in yields by 2020

• Decrease in crop net revenues by 90% by Decrease in crop net revenues by 90% by 21002100

• Impacts of CC will be strongest in North and Impacts of CC will be strongest in North and South for Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth for Sub-Saharan Africa

(Source: IPCC 2007, Parry (Source: IPCC 2007, Parry et alet al, 2004), 2004)

Definition of ScenariosDefinition of Scenarios

Scenarios Scenarios present a series of pictures or images present a series of pictures or images of how the world could look like under of how the world could look like under different conditions different conditions

Source: (Alcamo 2001; Kemp-Benedict, 2004; Source: (Alcamo 2001; Kemp-Benedict, 2004; IPCC 2007)IPCC 2007)

Scenario applications: Physical, Social & Scenario applications: Physical, Social & EconomicEconomic•Frazier et al., 2010: balance creation between

community growth & resilience to natural

hazards

•Enfors et al., 2008: water management

strategies in Pangani

•Biggs et al., 2007: platforms for sharing new

knowledge

•Davis, 2002 : identification of opportunities &

risks

•Peterson et. al., 2003: identify solutions to

complex threats

•Alcamo 2001: addressing complex issues

•Wollenberg et al., 2000: decision making for

community forests

JustificationJustification

• Climate change related problems are having Climate change related problems are having major impacts on water, land and natural major impacts on water, land and natural resources; which eventually affects resources; which eventually affects livelihoods. livelihoods.

• However, there exists a huge gap on how to However, there exists a huge gap on how to bridge sectoral gaps on local knowledge with bridge sectoral gaps on local knowledge with current technology into an informed decision current technology into an informed decision

with the emerging climatic impacts felt with the emerging climatic impacts felt

• How can we strengthen trust into local‘s How can we strengthen trust into local‘s validity? validity?

Key Goal of Research PaperKey Goal of Research Paper

Addressing uncertainties in Wami/Ruvu Addressing uncertainties in Wami/Ruvu catchment using scenario planningcatchment using scenario planning

Assessment of major driving forcesAssessment of major driving forces

Scenario planning used to create avenues of Scenario planning used to create avenues of change for increased productivity through change for increased productivity through integrated processes integrated processes

Specific ObjectivesSpecific Objectives

Map showing river/lake basins in Tanzania and 7 catchments of Wami/Ruvu Basin 

Study AreaStudy Area

Dar es salaam

Arusha

Study Area descriptionStudy Area description Temperatures in Tanzania range between 24°C - 34°C Temperatures in Tanzania range between 24°C - 34°C

Mean annual rainfall varies from below 500 mm to over Mean annual rainfall varies from below 500 mm to over 2500 mm annually2500 mm annually

The region faces major climatic impacts e.g. frequent The region faces major climatic impacts e.g. frequent floods, increased dry spells, changing rain fall seasonsfloods, increased dry spells, changing rain fall seasons

This influences length of growing seasons affecting food This influences length of growing seasons affecting food security that consequently affects people’s livelihoodssecurity that consequently affects people’s livelihoods

Participatory approach can enhance effective use and Participatory approach can enhance effective use and management of resources within the catchment, while management of resources within the catchment, while providing a window for positive change through providing a window for positive change through resilienceresilience

Target GroupTarget Group

6 Villages chosen upstream, downstream & 6 Villages chosen upstream, downstream & middle streammiddle stream

199 Household surveys conducted for key 199 Household surveys conducted for key

themes themes

84 farmers and their agricultural village 84 farmers and their agricultural village experts selected for the scenario procedureexperts selected for the scenario procedure

Participatory Scenario ProcedureParticipatory Scenario Procedure Participatory Scenario ProcedureParticipatory Scenario Procedure

Establish scenario team Team proposes goals & outlines

Team quantifies driving forces

Ranks driving forces

Revision of outline and storylines

Team revises storylines

General review of scenarios

Team revises scenarios

Presentation

Repetition of steps

Adopted from SCENES (Story and Simulation Approach to scenario development, Alcamo

2001)

Data Analysis ToolsData Analysis Tools

• Statistical Packages Analyses for Quantitative Statistical Packages Analyses for Quantitative datadata

• Content Analysis-Qualitative surveysContent Analysis-Qualitative surveys

• SAS (Story & Simulation Approach-Alcamo SAS (Story & Simulation Approach-Alcamo 2001 Adopted)2001 Adopted)

Outline of ResultsOutline of Results

• Trends in water resources, land and farm Trends in water resources, land and farm productivityproductivity

• Statistics of relationships between climate Statistics of relationships between climate change and main actorschange and main actors

• Major driving actors from scenario proceduresMajor driving actors from scenario procedures

• Highly ranked actorsHighly ranked actors

• Scenario categories Scenario categories

• Interpretation & applicationsInterpretation & applications

• Follow-up activities proposedFollow-up activities proposed

• ConclusionsConclusions

• Trends in water resources, land and farm Trends in water resources, land and farm productivityproductivity

• Statistics of relationships between climate Statistics of relationships between climate change and main actorschange and main actors

• Major driving actors from scenario proceduresMajor driving actors from scenario procedures

• Highly ranked actorsHighly ranked actors

• Scenario categories Scenario categories

• Interpretation & applicationsInterpretation & applications

• Follow-up activities proposedFollow-up activities proposed

• ConclusionsConclusions

Water resources/Land uses/ Productivity Water resources/Land uses/ Productivity

• Decline in water levels in Wami & Ruvu river Decline in water levels in Wami & Ruvu river SystemsSystems

• Increased dry spells : short lived ‘Increased dry spells : short lived ‘masika’masika’ rains; rains;

fewer or lack of ‘fewer or lack of ‘vuli’vuli’ rainsrains

• Population statistics have increased over the Population statistics have increased over the years: exerting pressure on water resourcesyears: exerting pressure on water resources

• The frequency of floods and droughts has risenThe frequency of floods and droughts has risen

• Rapid Change in land uses realizedRapid Change in land uses realized

• Decrease in food security for the region due to Decrease in food security for the region due to changes in seasonality (unreliable ‘vuli’ rains, changes in seasonality (unreliable ‘vuli’ rains, fewer ‘masika’ rains)fewer ‘masika’ rains)

Sources:Sources: NAPA 2006, United Republic of Tanzania NAPA 2006, United Republic of Tanzania Government reports, Shongwe et al.,2009, Government reports, Shongwe et al.,2009, Paavola 2008Paavola 2008

• Decline in water levels in Wami & Ruvu river Decline in water levels in Wami & Ruvu river SystemsSystems

• Increased dry spells : short lived ‘Increased dry spells : short lived ‘masika’masika’ rains; rains;

fewer or lack of ‘fewer or lack of ‘vuli’vuli’ rainsrains

• Population statistics have increased over the Population statistics have increased over the years: exerting pressure on water resourcesyears: exerting pressure on water resources

• The frequency of floods and droughts has risenThe frequency of floods and droughts has risen

• Rapid Change in land uses realizedRapid Change in land uses realized

• Decrease in food security for the region due to Decrease in food security for the region due to changes in seasonality (unreliable ‘vuli’ rains, changes in seasonality (unreliable ‘vuli’ rains, fewer ‘masika’ rains)fewer ‘masika’ rains)

Sources:Sources: NAPA 2006, United Republic of Tanzania NAPA 2006, United Republic of Tanzania Government reports, Shongwe et al.,2009, Government reports, Shongwe et al.,2009, Paavola 2008Paavola 2008

SPSS AnalysesSPSS Analyses

Relationship between climate change & main actors/drivers of change

•Pearson chi-square tests: P Value =0.000: shows high level of significance Drivers of change: Human activities

Natural Factors Culture & Traditions

Major Driving Actors from Scenario Major Driving Actors from Scenario ProcedureProcedure

Driving force Better Moderate Worse

Finances 72 0 12

Drought 42 36 6

Climate change 78 6 0

Hand hoe use6

1466

Agricultural inputs 72 012

Knowledge and extension services66

0 18

Changes in planting seasonality 24 6 54

Seed usage and availability 72 0 12

Irrigation 18 0 66

III. Driving forces highly ranked by scenario III. Driving forces highly ranked by scenario participantsparticipants

Driving forces Worse (%) Moderate(%) Better(%)

Drought 18 54 0

Knowledge and extension services 0 42 36

Agricultural practice 18 48 12

Environmental protection 0 36 42

Financial constraints 6 30 42

Categories of Scenarios 2030 DevelopedCategories of Scenarios 2030 DevelopedCategories of Scenarios 2030 DevelopedCategories of Scenarios 2030 Developed

Actors/ Factors Status of Actors/Factors State of stagnation In transition Managing thro’

Experience

State of

Stability

Drought Increase/decrease Increase Increase Decrease Decrease

Knowledge and

accessibility

to technology

High level of

awareness/low level

of awareness

Low Low Relatively

high

Very high

Agricultural

productivity

High/Low High Low High High

Environmental

Conservation

Weak environmental

conservation/advance

d environmental

conservation

Weak Weak Advanced Advanced

Economics Stable/low low low better Stable

Scenario Interpretation & SignificanceScenario Interpretation & SignificanceScenario Interpretation & SignificanceScenario Interpretation & Significance

• Explanation for each of the scenarios Explanation for each of the scenarios storylines developed and what it meant for storylines developed and what it meant for the participantsthe participants

• Relevance of scenarios to climate change Relevance of scenarios to climate change resilience for Wami Ruvu Catchmentresilience for Wami Ruvu Catchment

• Significance of Scenario approach used for Significance of Scenario approach used for the communitythe community

• Scenarios and Resilience developmentScenarios and Resilience development

Applications Applications

1.1.Management of risks and uncertaintiesManagement of risks and uncertainties

2.2.Future Planning: development, budget Future Planning: development, budget planning, resource distribution, e.t.c.planning, resource distribution, e.t.c.

3.3.Development pathways proposed Development pathways proposed

Sustainable Follow-up Activities by Sustainable Follow-up Activities by participantsparticipants

Sustainable Follow-up Activities by Sustainable Follow-up Activities by participantsparticipants

ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusions• Major relationships identified between changing land uses, Major relationships identified between changing land uses,

water resources, climate change and agricultural water resources, climate change and agricultural productivityproductivity

• Scenario as a tool was very practical in identification of Scenario as a tool was very practical in identification of major factors influencing changes in the agro-landscapemajor factors influencing changes in the agro-landscape

• SAS approach used was helpful in integration of SAS approach used was helpful in integration of stakeholder ideas at all stages of the scenario development stakeholder ideas at all stages of the scenario development processprocess

• The four scenario categories identified uncertainties in The four scenario categories identified uncertainties in each category and helped in developing a development each category and helped in developing a development pathway for the future of Wami Ruvu Catchmentpathway for the future of Wami Ruvu Catchment

• The results of the scenario process provided useful The results of the scenario process provided useful windows for positive change in the catchmentwindows for positive change in the catchment

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements UnUniversity of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa-iversity of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa-

TrainingTraining

Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania-Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania-TrainingTraining

Wami Ruvu Basin Water Office, Tanzania-Wami Ruvu Basin Water Office, Tanzania-

Financial Financial

Collaborative Research for East Africa Territorial Collaborative Research for East Africa Territorial Integration; -Research Financial supportIntegration; -Research Financial support

UNESCO-IHE for Study Financial supportUNESCO-IHE for Study Financial support

AfricaAdapt- Travel support to the meeting AfricaAdapt- Travel support to the meeting

Thanks!