OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE UP TO 2030 Manfred Hafner Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie NEEDS Research Stream 1c “New Externalities associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy” NEEDS Forum 2 Energy Supply Security – Present and Future Issues
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OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE UP TO 2030 Manfred Hafner Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie NEEDS Research Stream 1c “New Externalities.
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OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE
UP TO 2030
Manfred HafnerObservatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie
NEEDS Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to
the Extraction and Transport of Energy”
NEEDS Forum 2Energy Supply Security – Present and Future Issues
Krakow, 5-6 July 2007
Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to the extraction
Source: European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004
EU Oil Import scenario (in Mb/d)
Reference Case
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
NORWAY
RUSSIA
AMERICACASPIAN
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004 2010 2020 2030
Source:OME
Imports to Europe
2004: 11.6 Mb/d
AFRICA19%
AMERICA3%
CASPIAN4%
MIDDLE EAST23%NORWAY
20%
RUSSIA31%
2030: 12.6 Mb/d
AFRICA32%
AMERICA0%
CASPIAN11%
MIDDLE EAST26%
NORWAY2%
RUSSIA29%
Seaborne trade to increase
from 85% to 89%
Africa
Export Potential (Mb/d)
AlgeriaLibya
Angola
Nigeria
Other Africa
Egypt02468
10121416
2004 2010 2020 2030
Middle East
Export Potential (Mb/d)
IranIraq
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Turkmenistan Qatar
Other ME
05
1015
2025
3035
2004 2010 2020 2030
Qatar Kuwait
Caspian
Export Potential (Mb/d)
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004 2010 2020 2030
NORWAY
Demand
Export Potential
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2004 2010 2020 2030
RUSSIA
Demand
Export Potential
0123456789
101112
2004 2010 2020 2030
EU Crude Oil Imports by Transport Mode, 2004
North
Med
0
100
200
300
400
500
Ship Pipe Non Specified
Mill
ion
tonn
es
85%
15%
0.2%
EU crude oil imports by transport mode
EU Crude Oil Imports by transport mode (ref. case)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2010 2020 2030
Pipeline
Med. Ports
Atlantic Ports
Future evolution of EU crude oil imports by transport mode
EU Crude Oil Imports Flows – Summary 2004 Base Case (Mt)
N. America
L. America9
13
6
3
0.7
5
3417
4
36
44
35
20 95
22
30
5178
28
14
1074
5
Atlantic Med.Export
Import
Pipeline
256
Other Africa 19
8
79
46A
M
Caspian
10 13
Gulf
60 70
31
0.2
8
0.6
1
139
5675
23
65
54
23 65
25
30
8274
65
12
58
Atlantic Med.Export
Import
Pipeline
3
61
Other Africa 23
16
84
33A
M
Caspian
21 35
Gulf
55 105
3
Major EU Crude Oil Import Routes, 2030 (Mt), Major EU Crude Oil Import Routes, 2030 (Mt), REF CASEREF CASE
14
9
L. America
0.2
1
0.2
EU Oil Imports (2004)
EU Heavy Fuel Imports by Type and Case
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2004 Low Case 2030 High Case 2030
Mt
Pipeline
Mediterranean
Atlantic
European Oil maritime routes
Source: ITOPF
Hot spots: the Ras Tanura –Rotterdam routePrimorsk
Leningrad Oblast (Russia)
Population (2002): 1669205
Area: 84500 kmqFrench Finistére
Bretagne (France)
Population (2004): 3020885
Area: 27208 kmq
Dover Strait
Nord-Pas-de-Calais (France)
Populaion (2004): 4027706
Area: 12414 kmq
South East England
Population (2004): 8095261
Area: 19096 kmq
Spanish Finistere
Galicia (Spain)
Population (2004): 2706126
Area: 29574 kmq
Ras Tanura
Eastern Province (Saudi Arabia)
Population (2004): 3360157
Area: 710000 kmq
Suez Canal
Egypt Regions around the Suez Canal
Population (2004): 1816200
Area: 22321 kmq
Nabeul Governorate
(Tunisia)
Population (2004): 694000
Area: 2788 kmq
Sicily Strait
Sicily
Population (2004): 5013081
Area: 25710 kmq
Tangier-Tétouan
(Morocco)
Population(2005): 2470372
Area: 11570 kmq
Gibraltar Strait
Andalusia (Spain)
Population(2005):7552978
Area: 87599kmq
Hot spots: the Novorossisk – Augusta route
Novorossisk
Kraj di Krasnodar (Russia)
Population (2004): 5125221
Area: 83600 kmq
Bosphorus
Istambul (Turkey)
Populaion (2005):
10018735
Area: 5170 kmq
Kocaeli (Turkey)
Population (2005): 1206085
Area: 3635 kmq
Aegean sea
Northern Aegean
Population (2004): 206000
Area: 3836 kmq
Southern Aegean
Population
(2004): 302000
Area: 5286 kmq
Augusta
Sicily
Population (2004): 5013081
Area: 25710 kmq
Crete
Population (2004): 601000
Area: 8336 kmq
Results of externality values associated to the fuel chain up to the EU border ready by September 2007
Operational externalities (extraction and transport)Accidental/probabilistic externalities (extraction and transport)
The NEEDS project does not specifically target “security of supply” issues, but rather “environmental externalities”
Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to the extractions and transport energy”
WP1. Methodological developmentsDefinition of concepts and general methodology of the project
WP7. Stakeholders consultations and dissemination
WP5. Models and tools by energy source
WP4. Quantitative global models - Long term energy scenarios based on policy lines- Adaptation of the POLES model to include risk assessment- Development of energy risks assessment model (ERA)- Quantitative analysis of policy recommendations
WP3. Long term policy linesQualitative analysis of energy policy
options and scenarios for the EU
WP2. Value of energy security Estimation of consumers’ risk aversion
and willingness to pay for security
WP6. Results and policy recommendations
5.1. Oil
5.2. Natural gas
5.3. Coal
5.4. Nuclear
5.5. Renewable energy sources
5.6. Electricity
5.7. Impact of accidents and terrorist threats
- External supply
- Internal supply
- Geopolitical risks
- Technical risks
- Economic & regulatory risks
5.8. Demand dimension of energy security
SECURE project proposal FP7: Security of Energy
Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications