-
SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS
17 October 2011
PP16832/01/2012 (029059)
Sector Update 15 April 2013
PP16832/01/2013 (031128)
Page 1 of 2
Malaysia
Oil & Gas FPSO Market: Vibrant and Kicking
Reiterate Overweight. Speakers at the 4th Annual FPSO
Conference
2013 generally conveyed the impression of a vibrant global
operating
environment but also cautioned of the challenges ahead. Bumi
Armada
is our top Malaysian FPSO pick. It has the capability and
balance sheet
to grow on two-fronts: organic and inorganic. Our Malaysian BUYs
in
the small-mid-cap space are Yinson and Perisai Petroleum.
Robust prospects. The global FPSO market is replete with
opportunities, with most projects viable at current oil price
levels. The
count for potential FPSO projects in the planning stage has
risen to 154
now vs. 124 in 2011 and 86 in 2008. Five FPSO contracts have
been
awarded in 2013 to date; the market anticipates the award of
16-26 new
FPSO contracts in 2013 (2012: 14 units). 60% of the new FPSO
orders
are for newbuilds, driven largely by Petrobras; 40% are on a
conversion
basis. The split between leased vs owned FPSOs is about
equal.
Cost, culture effects. While prospects for the global FPSO
industry
are healthy, costs are steadily creeping up. This is a growing
concern,
impacted by: (i) inflation and (ii) the requirement for local
content (e.g.
labour, equipment). Inflation is expected to rise by 5%
annually. At the
same time, domestic regulations for local labour, products and
services,
which will single-handedly drive costs up fast, could affect
the
investment returns of an FPSO charter if not handled
properly.
Credit, competency. Credit spreads are at their lowest since
2011,
implying that it is a good time to raise financing. Project
financing is
largely concentrated in Asia and financiers prefer to fund
tier-1 shipyard
and FPSO operators with sound balance sheets and experience.
The
industry acknowledges that the pool of competent, experienced
staff is
shrinking, and there is thus an urgent need to address the
imbalances.
Consolidation. The FPSO market has not fully recovered from
2008,
when several companies went bust and were bought over; the
industry
anticipates further consolidation. Norwegian companies in
particular are
looking at exit strategies. A handful of Norwegian FPSO
operators like
BW Offshore are more cautious in accepting new orders due to
financial constrains and tighter internal controls. Prospective
buyers
with sound balance sheets will likely capitalise on these
opportunities.
Pricing will dictate the pace of these M&As.
Our view, stock picks. We concur with the views on global
prospects,
costs, credit, and consolidation. Geographically, demand for
FPSOs will
largely be concentrated in the Asia, Africa and Americas (Latin)
regions.
While the number of new awards have picked up, we do not rule
out
contract delays similar to those of 2012. In Malaysia:
We believe Bumi Armada is the likeliest candidate to capitalise
on
the FPSO opportunities worldwide, be they new projects or
M&As.
It is in the running for five FPSO tenders: (i) Kraken (Europe),
(ii)
Madura (Indonesia), (iii) Belud (Malaysia), (iv) Cameia (Angola)
and
(v) Block 15/06 (Angola). And, it has the balance sheet (0.6x
net
Overweight (unchanged)
Liaw Thong Jung [email protected] (603) 2297 8688
Chong Ooi Ming [email protected] (603) 2297 8676
Malaysian FPSO operators: Summary of recommendations
Stock Name Ticker Rec Shr Price @ 12 Apr
TP (MYR)
Bumi Armada BAB MK Buy 3.88 4.40
Perisai PPT MK Buy 1.12 1.40
Yinson YNS MK Buy 2.80 2.88
Source: Maybank KE
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15 April 2013 Page 2 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
Page 1 of 2
gearing as at Dec 2012) to go down the M&A route for
inorganic
growth. Our MYR4.40 TP is sum of parts (SOP) based.
We also do not rule out the possibility of Yinson engaging in
M&A,
as it aims to break into the top 10 FPSO league (by units).
Based
on its financial strength, a strategic partnership would be the
logical
option to optimise its gearing cap (1.5x net gearing as at
Jan-2013).
Our MYR2.88 TP is based on SOP valuations.
We do not foresee Perisai Petroleum embarking on another
FPSO
venture over the next 12 months. It needs to successfully
execute
the deployment of its FPSO for the Kamelia gas field first on
time
(i.e. Jul 2013). This is crucial to building its capability and
reputation
in the market. Notwithstanding that, new FPSO charters in
Malaysia
are few and sporadic in nature. Perisais business is
predominantly
in Malaysia as it capitalises on PETRONAS import
substitution
opportunities. Its immediate focus is to secure charters for its
two
jack-up rigs, which will be delivered in 2014 and 2015
respectively.
Our MYR1.40 TP is based on 11x FY14 EPS.
Oil & Gas FPSO Sector Peer Valuation Summary (by market
capitalisation)
Stock Rec Shr px Mkt cap TP PER (x)
PER (x)
P/B (x)
P/B (x)
ROAE (%)
ROAE (%)
Net yield
(MYR) (MYRm) (MYR) CY13E CY14E CY13E CY14E CY13E CY14E CY13E
Bumi Armada Buy 3.88 11,367.3 4.40 24.3 21.3 2.7 2.4 11.3 11.4
-
Perisai Buy 1.12 1,048.9 1.40 10.6 8.9 1.8 1.6 16.8 18.3 -
Yinson Buy 2.80 561.0 2.88 9.9 6.0 1.7 1.3 17.1 22.1 0.9
Simple average 14.9 12.1 2.1 1.8 15.0 17.3 0.3
(Local) (USDm)
SBM* NA 12.36 3,360.3 NA 8.8 7.0 1.8 1.4 20.0 21.1 0.4
BW Offshore** NA 5.85 703.8 NA 9.3 8.0 0.5 0.5 6.0 7.9 9.2
Fred Olsen** NA 8.55 158.4 NA 25.8 46.5 0.8 NA 1.8 NA -
Modec# NA 2,585.0 1,207.6 NA 17.5 14.2 2.0 1.8 11.1 12.9 1.3
Emas Offshore** NA 2.68 52.0 NA 1.1 NA 0.3 0.3 NA NA -
* in Euro, ** in Norwegian Krone , # in Yen Source: Maybank
KE
FPSO Orders Estimates
Speaker New FPSO Orders
Joachim J Skorge, DnB 2013: 17 units
2014: 20 units
2015: 20 units
David Boggs, Energy Maritime Low case: 17 units p.a.
Base case: 22 units p.a.
High case: 26 units p.a.
Source: Various, Maybank KE
FPSO: Leased Operators by fleet size
11
14
8 8
4 4
1
42
32 2
5
32
2
41 1
1
11
-1
2
5
8
11
14
17
SBM BW Modec Teekay Bumi Armada
Bluewater OSX Maersk Petrofac Fred Olsen
Saipem Omni Offshore Terminals
(Units) Existing Fleet On Orderbook Idle
Source: Maybank KE
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15 April 2013 Page 3 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
Page 1 of 2
Snapshots from the 4th Annual FPSO Conference 2013
Highlights:
Joachim J. Skorge; Regional Head of Asia, Managing Director,
DnB Bank ASA: International Offshore Market Forecast
Forecasts oil price to average USD107/bbl in 2013, a favourable
level for oil companies to continue pursuing
opportunities in the O&G sector.
He expects exploration and production (E&P) spending to grow
by 8% YoY to USD623b. Despite the 8% projected growth, cost
inflation alone drives 50% of 2013s spending increases.
National oil companies (NOCs) will continue to lead spending
(42%), followed by oil majors (28%), large-cap oil companies
(18%) and small-caps/independents (12%).
Segmental class-wise, deepwater offshore operations yield the
highest IRR, presently at 23%, followed by conventional and
offshore projects (14%), heavy oil (13%) and LNG (12%).
Anticipates a robust 5-year outlook for the FPSO market as
projects enter into development phases. Expects new FPSO
orders to pick up to 17 in 2013 (2012: 14), and average 20
new
contracts p.a. in both 2014 and 2015.
Credit spreads are at its lowest since 2011, which makes this
a
good time to raise financing.
Hassan Basma; CEO, Bumi Armada: Global FPSO Outlook
The days of easy oil are over. The O&G market is headed
towards a deeper and harsher E&P environment. While the
NOCs and oil majors are struggling to increase production,
independent and mid-cap operators (e.g. Apache, BG Group,
Anandarko, Tullow Oil, Afren) are coming up with new
reserves
and discoveries. The latter is expected to turn in
production
reserves growth of 7% YoY in in 2013.
The FPSO industry is in a consolidation mode, severely hit by
the 2008 global financial crisis and aggressive expansion in
the
past. Companies like FPSOcean, MPF, Nexus, Petropod and
Songa Floating Production have since gone bankrupt while
Prosafe Production, Seas Production and Sevan Marine were
bought over by BW Offshore, Rubicon and Teekay respectively.
Anticipates the consolidation to persist into 2013 as Norwegian
companies in particular are looking at exit strategies.
Prospective buyers with sound balance sheets will likely
capitalise on these opportunities. Pricing will dictate the pace
of
these potential M&A exercises.
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15 April 2013 Page 4 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
Page 1 of 2
The FPSO market is categorised into two segments: the sub-
USD500m and over-USD500m markets.
o Sub-USD500m. This refers to the cost of the FPSO, be it a
conversion or refurbishment unit. Production capacity tends
to be below 90,000bpd. The characteristics of this market
are as follows:
(i) Contracts are price sensitive and tenures tend to be
short (2-4 years, fixed-term).
(ii) FPSOs are deployed largely to support marginal field
developments (i.e. small reserves).
(iii) Takes 24-36 months to convert and deliver the FPSO.
(iv) New players are emerging, largely to support local
content requirements.
(v) A know who market. Largely located in Asia and Africa.
o Above-USD500m. This refers to the cost of the FPSO,
largely for newbuilds (and to a certain extent, conversions)
with production capacity of >90,000bpd. The
characteristics
of this market are as follows:
(i) The FPSOs deployed are largely newbuilds.
(ii) Takes longer to build and deliver the FPSO (> 5
years).
(iii) Contract tenures tend to be long (> 5 years fixed
term).
(iv) The FPSO is more technical (i.e. engineering intensive)
and complex. Requires a sound know how a high
level of competency. Relevant markets are the North
Sea, Latin America.
(v) Need a strong balance sheet to be in this market.
Costs are on the rise, a growing concern driven by:
o cost inflation and
o local content requirements.
For example, Brazil has a 65% local content requirement,
Indonesia has its cabotage rules etc.. FPSO operators need
to
be culturally savvy (globally driven but with a local mindset)
as
they ventures into countries with such regulatory
requirements.
While the demand outlook for the FPSO market is strong, the
industry lacks a competent workforce. The number of
experienced personnel is declining. There is an urgent need
to
train new staff.
Project financing is largely concentrated in Asia, not
Europe.
Contract extension for FPSO projects are a risk FPSOs are not
likely to be renewed immediately after the firm tenure ends.
FPSO operators should expect a 1-3-year gestation period
once their firm-period FPSO charter expires.
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Oil & Gas - FPSO
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State of industry: Capacity Destruction
Norwegian FPSO (Players in 2009) Norwegian FPSO players
today
Aker Floating Production Last award 2006 (Dhirubhai FPSO)
BW Offshore Bought Prosafe, last award 2010 (TSB and Athena
FPSOs)
FPSOcean Bankrupt
Fred Olsen Production Last award 2008 (Knock Taggart)
MPF Bankrupt
Nexus Bankrupt
PetroPod Bankrupt
Prosafe Production Bought by BW Offshore
Sea Production Bought by Rubicon
Sevan Marine Bought by Teekay
Songa Floating Production Bankrupt
Source: Bumi Armada, Maybank KE
Nick Routledge; VP Field Development; Aibel: FPSO
Contracting & Business Model An Integrated Topside
Fabricator Perspective
FPSO topsides are getting more complex, heavier (in tonnage) and
more expensive (i.e. steel cost on the rise) as the size of
the FPSO rises.
Fabricators need to constantly engage with clients to ensure
timely delivery and minimise last-minute design variations.
Cost comparison and trend analysis of topside construction
Year Tonnage Cost (USD/tonne)
2000 1,000 10m
2005 7,500 27m
2010 20,000 35m
Source: Aibel, Maybank KE
Vilmar Carneiro Barbosa; Production Project Manager, OGX
Brazil: Fast track FPSOs & Localization Strategies to
Monetise
Brazils Rich Offshore Reserves
Shared with the floor OGXs star-gate approach to fast-track
projects in Brazil. This approach basically runs several field
prospects that share similar characteristics (i.e. water depth,
oil
characteristics, well etc.) simultaneously. Conventional
methods undertook the development of each field separately
(i.e. silo basis).
Once these fields have been identified, the screening and
selection process goes through three star-gates in terms of:
(i) opportunity study and selection,
(ii) development and definition and
(iii) detailing and execution.
The Tubarao Azul project was highlighted as a case study,
taking just two years to bring planning to first oil
production.
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15 April 2013 Page 6 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
Page 1 of 2
Star-gate processes
Star-gate Details
Opportunity identification and portfolio update Wildcat
drilling, Formation test
Opportunity study and selection Reservoir studies start,
Appraisal well testing
Projects development and definition FPSO Nexus-1 acquired, Final
wells location plan
Production detailing and execution Decision to use the FPSO
OSX-1 on the Waimea field, start of OSX-1 customization at Keppel
yard
First production well drilling and completion, mooring system
installation, first oil pull-in to FPSO OSX-1, hook-up and
commissioning, first oil
Source: OGX, Maybank KE
Brazilian E&P concession contracts contain a clause
requiring
operators to purchase a certain percentage of goods and
services from locally-established service providers.
Local contents required for OGXs bid blocks
Qualification Phase Minimum Maximum
Shallow water Exploration 51% 60%
Shallow water Development 63% 70%
Source: OGX, Maybank KE
Peter Zeilinger, CEO OMV: New Zealands Maari field
developments and the Raroa FPSO case study
Showcased the Maari field project the challenges faced (i.e.
harsh offshore environment, field characteristics, weather
conditions, construction delays), development (selection of
type
of well-head platform, leased FPSO) and highlighted the
change of its contract and strategy for O&M services once
it
decided to buy out the FPSO after four years of operations.
The new O&M cost model adopts a cost-sharing model. It has a
minimum and maximum payment, whereby cost and benefits
are shared between field operator and FPSO charterer.
Lars Odeskaug, COO Sevan Marine: Introducing Green
FPSO for operations under Arctic conditions
Highlighted its unorthodox cylindrically-shaped FPSO as
opposed to the conventional ship-shaped FPSO.
Benefits of cylindrical hull design:
o Less bending stress from lower roll motions as it reduces
typical wave-induced fatigue loads
o Minimal hull deflection, simplifying topside design
o Cheaper. Saves on cost from low steel weight and absence
of turret.
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15 April 2013 Page 7 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
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K.C. Gupta; General Manager, Omni Offshore Terminals: The
FPSO lease and operate model as the right choice for Asias
offshore E&P challenges
Sees FPSOs as the lowest regret cost solutions in case of
subsurface surprises, as FPSOs can be relocated to other
fields, with some modifications.
Sees FPSOs, especially the converted type, as a means for field
operators to monetise field production in a relatively short
time (2-3 years).
Risks to the FPSO operator:
o Delivery risk: construction (i.e. delay, cost overruns),
equipment (non-performance) and acceptance (regulatory,
E&P specifications)
o Schedule risk: cashflow not starting as envisaged
o Operational risk: uptime, capacity, maintenance
o Contractual risk
Suggests that an FPSO operator needs payment assurances from the
field operator to recover its investment in a firm lease
period. Also recommends that field operators part-fund the
construction/conversion of FPSO to share risk.
David Boggs; Managing Director, Energy Maritime Associates:
FPSO Investment Opportunities
Expects the outlook for the FPSO market to be robust. 44 FPSOs
are currently on order, comprising 18 newbuilds and 26
conversions. 173 FPSOs are currently in operation globally.
The count for potential FPSO projects in the planning stage
as
at Mar 2013 stands at 154 versus 124 in 2011 and 86 in 2008.
Expects new FPSO orders to average 110 units over the next
five years (2013-17) versus 76 units five years ago
(2008-12).
o Low case: 86 units (average: 17 units p.a.)
o Base case: 110 units (average: 22 units p.a.)
o Best case: 154 units (average: 26 units p.a.)
60% of the new orders will likely be on a leased basis, the
rest
will be owned.
Potential FPSO projects in planning stage
Year 2008 2011 2013
Unit 86 124 154
Source: International Maritime Associates, Maybank KE
FPSO orders over the last 10 years
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Unit 11 9 20 21 14 14 7 26 14 14
Source: International Maritime Associates, Maybank KE
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15 April 2013 Page 8 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
Page 1 of 2
Maartan Van Aller; COO, Petrofac Floating Production:
Contracting Trends in the FPSO Market
NOCs will see new challenges over the next decade, with giant
fields in decline and average development discovery
decreasing. The complexity of securing new supplies is also
rising, as E&P moves into harsher, deeper environments.
O&G replenishment rates are falling. Of the total daily oil
production of 80m bpd, 50-60m bpd come from mature fields
aged over 10 years. Close to 40% of global production comes
from fields producing less than 100,000 bpd. The decline in
mature fields is more pronounced at the smaller fields.
International oil companies (IOCs) are spending a third of costs
on R&D and are more aggressive in bringing technology and
capability to frontier plays, such as marginal field
development.
The current oil price environment supports marginal field
development.
IOCs are not seeking to own oil and gas blocks. Instead,
they
are keener on the asset-light approach, developing marginal
fields and sharing profits based on performance.
Other findings on FPSO Leasing vs. Ownership
The FPSO market is still healthy with most FPSO projects viable
at current oil price levels. Five contracts have been
awarded to date for this year. Expectations are for 16 new
FPSO projects for 2013. Geographically, the Asia Pacific and
Brazilian markets are the major driving forces.
Conversion-type FPSOs dominate industrys preference to-date, for
they are quicker and cheaper to construct. Newbuild
FPSOs are deployed mainly to large fields with huge
hydrocarbon resources.
Most of the existing FPSOs are still leased but the number of
owned units is on the rise. Leased FPSO operators are a tightly
held. SBM, BW Offshore, Teekay and Modec control 52% of
the FPSO leased market.
While demand for leasing projects is still strong, companies
like BW Offshore are turning more cautious in accepting new
orders
(for financial reasons and due to tighter internal
controls).
Operationally, 18 FPSOs are coming off their current contracts.
Of that, 7 units are without contract extensions. Elsewhere, 7
FPSOs are currently sitting idle without a contract.
Speculative
FPSOs are scarce due to the high capex outlay.
Cost-wise, inflation and local content (e.g. labour, equipment)
requirements are expected to drive up conversion and newbuild
costs. The former is expected to go up by 5% annually.
Financially, the FPSO operators were enjoying better fortunes
than the yard operators prior to 2008. Post 2008, the situation
has reversed. Yard operators are now faring better vis--vis
the
FPSO operators, for the latter is inundated with increased
competition, cost mismanagement (overruns), aggressive
pursuit of ill-conceived ventures and financing issues.
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15 April 2013 15 April 2013 Page 9 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
FPSO contracts awarded YTD from 2009
Award
date
Company Field Water
depth (m)
Oil Company Country Ownership Construction type Shipyard
Contract terms
(Charter years or EPC)
2009 SBM Offshore Aseng 1,000 Nobel Guinea Leased Conversion
Keppel 15 yrs + 5 yrs
2009 BWO Papa-Terra 1,200 Petrobras Brazil Owned Conversion
Cosco Dalian EPC
2009 EOC Chim Sao 95 Premier Oil Vietnam Leased Conversion
Keppel 6yrs + 6yrs
2009 Bumi Armada TGT 43 Hoang Long Vietnam Leased Conversion
Keppel 7yrs + 8 yrs
2009 Saipem Aquila 815 ENI Italy Leased Conversion Dubai
DryDocks 20yrs
2009 Bluewater Nan Hai 115 CNOOC China Leased Redeployment Batam
1yr -1.5 yrs
2009 SBM Offshore Baleia Azul 1,200 Petrobras Brazil Leased
Redeployment Keppel 18yrs
2010 Bluewater Kitan 344 ENI Australia/ Timor Leste Leased
Redeployment Jurong 5yrs + 5yrs
2010 Modec Guara-Sapinho Pilot 2,140 Petrobras Brazil Leased
Conversion Cosco Dalian 20yrs
2010 OSX Waimea 130 OGX Brazil Owned Conversion Samsung EPCI
2010 BWO TSB 100 Kangean Energy Indonesia Leased Conversion
Jurong 10yrs + 4 yrs
2010 BWO Athena 130 Ithaca UK Leased Redeployment Dubai DryDocks
3yrs + 5 yrs
2010 SBM Offshore Lula Nordeste 2,131 Petrobras Brazil Leased
Conversion Keppel 20yrs
2010 Hyundai Goliat 340 ENI Norway Owned Newbuild Hyundai
EPC
2010 Sevan Huntington 120 E.ON UK Leased Redeployment Nymo
5yrs
2010 BLT Pagerungan 75 Kangean Indonesia Leased Redeployment
Jurong 4yrs
2010 Petrofac Cendor Ph.2 70 Petrofac Malaysia Owned Conversion
SapuraKencana EPC
2010 Daewoo CLOV 1,290 Total Angola Owned Newbuild Daewoo
EPCC
2010 Teekay Bauna/Piracaba 277 Petrobras Brazil Leased
Conversion Jurong 9yrs + 6yrs
2010 Teekay Aruana 980 Petrobras Brazil Leased Redeployment
Aibel 2yrs
2010 Sembcorp (Jurong)
Roncador 1,600 Petrobras Brazil Owned Conversion Jurong EPC
2010 Keppel Parque das Baleias 1,400 Petrobras Brazil Owned
Conversion Keppel EPC
2010 Petrobras
(Engivix/GVA/ COSCO) *
Pre-salt fields 1,500 Petrobras Brazil Owned Newbuild Rio Grande
Sul
shipyard
EPCC for 8 units
2011 SBM Offshore Waimea 130 OGX Brazil Owned Conversion Keppel
EPCI
2011 Petrofac Berantai 75 Petrofac/
Petronas
Malaysia Lease/
Owned
Redeployment Keppel 7yrs
2011 Hyundai Quad 204 424 BP UK Owned Newbuild Hyundai EPC
2011 Modec Cernambi Sul 2,300 Petrobras Brazil Leased Conversion
Cosco Dalian 20yrs
2011 Modec Waikiki Pero Inga (OSX 3)
110 OSX Brazil Owned Conversion Jurong EPCI
2011 OSX Campos Basin TBD OGX Brazil Owned Conversion TBD
EPCI
2011 OSX Campos Basin TBD OGX Brazil Owned Conversion TBD
EPCI
2011 McDermott Crux liquids TBD Nexus Energy Australia Owned
Newbuild TBD EPC
2011 SBM Offshore Block 15/06 - Ngoma 1,421 ENI/Sonangol Angola
Leased Redeployment Keppel 12yrs
2011 SBM Offshore Lula Nordeste 2,100 Petrobras Brazil Leased
Conversion Keppel 20yrs
2011 Teekay Knarr 410 BG Norway Leased Newbuild Samsung 6yrs+14
or 10yrs+10
2011 Bumi Armada Balnaves 150 Apache Australia Leased
Redeployment Keppel 4yrs+4
2011 Bumi Armada D1 85 ONGC India Leased Conversion Keppel 7yrs
+ 6yrs
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15 April 2013 15 April 2013 Page 10 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
Sources: International Maritime Associates Inc, Upstream,
Maybank KE *a single order comprising 8 hulls, ** a single order
comprising 4 hulls, ***** a single order comprising 2 hulls
FPSO contracts awarded YTD from 2009 (continued)
Award date
Company Field Water depth (m)
Oil Company Country Ownership Construction type Shipyard
Contract terms (Charter years or EPC)
2012 Daewoo Ichthys 250 Inpex Australia Owned Newbuild Daewoo
EPC
2012 Blue Marine Mexican GOM TBD Sea Production Gulf of Mexico
Leased Redeployment Keppel 3+1+1yrs
2012 Blue Water Alma/Galia 150 Enquest UK Owned Redeployment
Blohm & Voss EPC
2012 PTSC/Yinson Thang Long/ Dong DO
65 PetroVietnam/Petronas
Vietnam Leased Conversion Keppel 7+3yrs
2012 SBM Offshore Sapinho North
(FPSO Cidade de Ilhabela)
2,300 Petrobras Brazil Leased Conversion China State
Shipbuilding
20yrs
2012 Odebrecht/UTC/
OAS**
Franco/Transfer of
Rights pre-salt area
TBD Petrobras Brazil Owned Conversion Inhauma Shipyard EPC
2012 COSCO Western Isles (U.K.) 160 Dana Petroleum UK Owned
Newbuild Cosco Qidong EPC
2012 Roc Oil, Dialog, PETRONAS
Balai Cluster Roc Oil, Dialog, PETRONAS
Malaysia Owned Newbuild Keppel EPC
2012 EOC/ Perisai PM 301 EPS (Kamelia)
55 Hess Malaysia Leased Redeployment Keppel 3+3yrs
2012 M3nery Bukit Tua 100 Petronas Indonesia Leased Conversion
Keppel 5+2yrs
2013 Bumi Armada C7 90 ONGC India Leased Conversion Keppel
9+7yrs
2013 SBM
Offshore***
Lula Alto and Lula
Central
2,300 Petrobras Brazil Leased Conversion NA 21yrs
2013 EPOM (PETRONAS)
Bertam 75 Lundin Malaysia Owned Redeployment NA 10yrs
(O&M)
2013 Hyundai Rosebank 1,100 Chevron UK Owned Newbuild Hyundai
EPC
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15 April 2013 15 April 2013 Page 11 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
RESEARCH OFFICES REGIONAL
P K BASU Regional Head, Research & Economics
(65) 6432 1821 [email protected]
WONG Chew Hann, CA Acting Regional Head of Institutional
Research
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[email protected]
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Philippines | Indonesia (63) 2 849 8836
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(852) 2268 0632 [email protected] Banking & Finance
Ivan CHEUNG, CFA (852) 2268 0634 [email protected] HK
Property Industrial Jacqueline KO, CFA (852) 2268 0633
[email protected]
Consumer Andy POON (852) 2268 0645 [email protected]
Telecom & equipment Alex YEUNG (852) 2268 0636
[email protected]
Industrial Warren LAU
(852) 2268 0644 [email protected] Technology - Regional
Karen KWAN
(852) 2268 0640 [email protected] China Property Jeremy
TAN
(852) 2268 0635 [email protected] Gaming
INDIA Jigar SHAH Head of Research
(91) 22 6623 2601 [email protected] Oil & Gas
Automobile Cement Anubhav GUPTA (91) 22 6623 2605
[email protected]
Metal & Mining Capital goods Property Urmil SHAH (91) 22
6623 2606 [email protected]
Technology Media Varun VARMA
(91) 226623 2611 [email protected] Banking
SINGAPORE Gregory YAP Head of Research
(65) 6432 1450 [email protected] Technology &
Manufacturing Telcos - Regional Wilson LIEW (65) 6432 1454
[email protected]
Hotel & Resort Property & Construction James KOH
(65) 6432 1431 [email protected] Logistics Resources
Consumer Small & Mid Caps YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6432 1460
[email protected] Offshore & Marine Alison FOK
(65) 6432 1447 [email protected] Services S-chips Bernard
CHIN (65) 6432 1446 [email protected]
Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation) ONG Kian Lin (65) 6432
1470 [email protected]
REITs / Property Wei Bin
(65) 6432 1455 [email protected] S-chips Small & Mid
Caps
INDONESA Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research
(62) 21 2557 1125 [email protected] Consumer
Strategy Telcos Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA
(62) 21 2557 1127 [email protected] Base metals
Mining Oil & Gas Wholesale Rahmi MARINA
(62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected] Banking
Multifinance Pandu ANUGRAH (62) 21 2557 1137
[email protected] Automotive Heavy equipment
Plantation Toll road Adi N. WICAKSONO (62) 21 2557 1128
[email protected]
Generalist Anthony YUNUS (62) 21 2557 1139
[email protected]
Cement Infrastructure Property Arwani PRANADJAYA (62) 21 2557
1129 [email protected] Technicals
PILIPPIES Luz LORENZO Head of Research
(63) 2 849 8836 [email protected] Strategy Laura
DY-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected]
Utilities Conglomerates Telcos Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841
[email protected] Consumer Media Cement Kenneth
NERECINA
(63) 2 849 8839 [email protected] Conglomerates
Property Ports/ Logistics Katherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843
[email protected]
Banks Construction Ramon ADVIENTO
(63) 2 849 8845 [email protected] Mining
THAILAD Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Research
(66) 2658 6300 ext 5090
[email protected]
Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research
Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399
[email protected]
Consumer/ Big Caps
Andrew STOTZ Strategist
(66) 2658 6300 ext 5091 [email protected]
Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440
[email protected] Strategy
Suttatip PEERASUB
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 [email protected] Media
Commerce Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400
[email protected] Energy Petrochem Termporn
TANTIVIVAT
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 [email protected] Property
Woraphon WIROONSRI
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1560 [email protected] Banking
& Finance Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected]
Transportation Small cap. Chatchai JINDARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1401
[email protected] Electronics Pongrat RATANATAVANANANDA
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1398 [email protected] Services/ Small
Caps
VIETNAM Michael KOKALARI, CFA Head of Research
(84) 838 38 66 47 [email protected]
Strategy Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen
(84) 844 55 58 88 x 8081 [email protected] Food
and Beverage Oil and Gas Ngo Bich Van (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8084
[email protected] Banking Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 844
55 58 88 x 8242 [email protected]
Technology Utilities Construction Dang Thi Kim Thoa (84) 844 55
58 88 x 8083 [email protected] Consumer Nguyen Trung
Hoa +84 844 55 58 88 x 8088 [email protected] Steel
Sugar Resources
-
15 April 2013 15 April 2013 Page 12 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND
DISCLOSURES
DISCLAIMERS
This research report is prepared for general circulation and for
information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be
considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an
offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should
note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that
each securitys price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or
recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings
and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from
fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different
methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related
information extracted from the relevant jurisdictions stock
exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors returns may
be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not
intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take
into account the specific investment objectives, the financial
situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or
read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal
and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any
securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in
this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources
believed to be reliable but such sources have not been
independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its
subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, MKE) and consequently no
representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this
report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such.
Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associat es,
connected parties and/or employees (collectively, Representatives)
shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential
losses or damages that may ar ise from the use or reliance of this
report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained
herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are
often but not always identified by the use of words such as ant
icipate, believe, estimate, intend, plan, expect, forecast, predict
and project and statements that an event or result may, will, can,
should, could or might occur or be achieved and other similar
expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on
assumptions made and information currently available to us and are
subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the
actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any
forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place
undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly
disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward
looking statements to reflect new information, events or
circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the
occurrence of unanticipated events.
MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons
involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the
extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in
financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities
mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business
from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other
material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or
options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition,
it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material
presented in this report. MKE may, to the extent permitted by law,
act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research
or analysis on which they are based, before the material is
published. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE
may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in
this report.
This report is prepared for the use of MKEs clients and may not
be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or
distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or
manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and
its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions
of third parties in this respect.
This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to
or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or
located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where
such distribution, publication, availability or use would be
contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only
under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all
juri sdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without
prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional
disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on
geographical location of the person or entity receiving this
report.
Malaysia
Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of
technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may
differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply
different methodologies and are purely based on price and
volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities
Berhad in the equity analysis.
Singapore
This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the
information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng
Research Pte. Ltd. (Maybank KERPL) in Singapore has no obligation
to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in
Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL
in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in
connection with, this report. If the recipient of th is report is
not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional
investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities
and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the
contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the
extent (if any) as permitted by law.
Thailand
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of
Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made
pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange
Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a
company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for
Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be
accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is
from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of
operation and is not based on inside information.The survey result
is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of
Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after
that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company
Limited (MBKET) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such
survey result.
Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation
may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior
written permission of MBKET. MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever
for the actions of third parties in this respect.
US
This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the
United States (US) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined
in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as
amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (Maybank
KESUSA), a broker -dealer registered in the US (registered under
Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All
responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank
KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting
transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a
registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at
you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or
regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You
should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is
permitted to provide research material concerning investments to
you under relevant legislation and regulations.
UK
This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities
(London) Ltd (Maybank KESL) which is authorized and regulated, by
the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes
only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone
defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets
Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for
the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take
any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to
such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report
should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax
advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult
with their own independent tax advisers.
-
15 April 2013 15 April 2013 Page 13 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
DISCLOSURES
Legal Entities Disclosures
Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by
Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating
Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital
Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in
Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in
Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is
regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim
Eng Securities (PTKES) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of
the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK.
Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock
Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance
and the Securities and Exchange Commission.Philippines:MATRKES
(Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock
Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange
Commission. Vietnam: Kim Eng Vietnam Securities Company (KEVS)
(License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) is licensed under the
StateSecuritiesCommission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central
Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures
Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (KESI)
is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited
(Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No.
INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange
Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1
Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a
member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA Broker ID
27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and
regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have
positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to
herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an
underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also
perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory
and other services for or relating to those companies.
Singapore: As of 15 April 2013, Maybank KERPL and the covering
analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in
this research report.
Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may
possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities
/compani es mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors
should exercise their own judgment before making any investment
decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties
and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or
underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this
report.
Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an
issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the
requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of
Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities
and Futures Commission.
As of 15 April 2013, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have
any interest in any companies recommended in this research
report.
MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or
co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may
make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities
mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided
within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment
services in relation to the investment concerned or a related
investment.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect
the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject
securities or issuers; and no part of the research analysts
compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to
the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Reminder
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve
a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to
sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and
assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured
security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and
political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward
interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions
and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference
issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product
should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its
own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a
purchase.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or
duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the
prior consent of MKE.
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system:
BUY Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12
months (excluding dividends)
HOLD Total return is expected to be between -10% to +10% in the
next 12 months (excluding dividends)
SELL Total return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12
months (excluding dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks,
the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investm ent
ratings are only
applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage
universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage
do not carry investment ratings
as we do not actively follow developments in these
companies.
Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they
appear):
Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price
Earnings
BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth
CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER =
PE Ratio
Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ =
Quarter-On-Quarter
CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On
Asset
DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On
Equity DPS = Dividend Per Share
NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders Funds
EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC =
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum
YoY = Year-On-Year
EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD =
Year-To-Date
EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax
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15 April 2013 15 April 2013 Page 14 of 14
Oil & Gas - FPSO
Malaysia Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (A Participating
Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor,
Menara Maybank,
100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888;
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Research Pte Ltd 9 Temasek Boulevard #39-00 Suntec Tower 2
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Level 30, Three Pacific Place, 1 Queens Road East, Hong Kong
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