SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008 Ron Strykowsky - page 1 Office of Science NCSX Project Review of NCSX April 8-10, 2008 Cost and Schedule Ron Strykowsky
Jan 12, 2016
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 1
Office of Science NCSX Project Review
of
NCSX
April 8-10, 2008
Cost and Schedule
Ron Strykowsky
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 2
Topics
• Baseline Formulation Process
• Basis and Assumptions
• Results•Cost
•Contingency
•Schedule
•Staffing
• Project Control Processes
• EIR Summary Assessments
• Summary
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 3
Baseline Formulation Process
• Job Managers Reviewed and Updated WAF’s (realistic not best case)•Additional scope per August Lehman review recommendations•Critically reviewed all job estimates to reflect current design maturity & experiences to date
• Internal Engineering Department Review for Critical and Large Job Estimates• Assigned labor resources to tasks • Updated overhead and labor rates• Updated resource Loaded Schedule
•Focus on critical path optimization•Off critical path scope (maximize free float)•Fit Program funding targets
• Expanded and quantified project risks• Contingency analysis process (probabilistic approach)• March 13-14 PU Review• Submit New Baseline Proposal to OFES March 26• Office of Science Review April 8-10• Submit Baseline Change Proposal to OECM April 21• External Independent Review May 20-22
•The WAF’s are the basis of all estimates•The resource loaded schedule is the master schedule and cost estimate data base
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 4
Work scope organized and documented in the Work Breakdown Structure
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 5
The WAF is the basis of all estimates
Work Authorization Forms (WAF’s)– Disciplined and uniform approach for all work – Excel based spreadsheet including;
• Table 0 – Work scope description and approvals• Table I – Design Labor (usually in man-hours or FTEs) – (priced in
Primavera)• Table II – Materials and supplies - usually direct procurements of materials
and components (direct dollars) (priced in Primavera) • Table III – Fabrication and assembly operations (combination of labor hours
and material and supplies needed to support these operations)• Table IV – Estimate uncertainty and Risk
– Job Manager assessment of design maturity/complexity and identification of residual risks that should be included in the Risk Register
• Basis of estimate categorized and summarized in each WAFCATEGORIZATION CODES:
1 - National Standards2 - Engineering Judgement/Experience3 - Estimates/Data from External Sources (e.g., W7X, ATF, etc.)4 - Previous PPPL/ORNL Experieince (e.g., TFTR, NSTX, PLT, etc.)5 - Prototype Data/Test Results6 - Catelogue Price/Vendor Quote7 - Placed Contracts8 - Actual experience for NCSX Work9 - Other
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 6
Key Planning Basis and Assumptions
• ETC forward from February 1st, 2008• Cost Incurred from April 1, 2003 (MIE project inception)
• Every Job Reviewed, most re-estimated• GPP and Infrastructure not part of MIE project. (Shown in the resource
loaded schedule. Progress coordinated and tracked by Erik Perry)
• Program BA constraints • Institutional Overhead Rates (CAS Compliant)
• Standard work week 8hrs/day 5 days/ week (Exceptions; Field period assy (sta3
FPA#3, station 5, and Final Machine assy make use of select 2 shift operations). No overtime or
Saturday work planned. Overtime and Saturday used to maintain schedule.
• Holidays• Contingency Allocation by fiscal year (commensurate with risk & cost
uncertainty)
• Task durations - more detail on critical path and near term
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 7
• Based on deliverables and/or tasks identified by the job managers• Input varied from resource loaded schedules to deliverables and resource
estimate only
• Established tasks, internal milestones (PDR’s, FDR’s, contract awards)
• Task durations based on realistic resource loadings & crew sizes• Logically linked (2,170 tasks, 2700 links, 2900 individual resource
loadings)• Non-critical path tasks scheduled within BA constraints with free
float to critical path• Schedule iterated based on
• Optimizing the critical path. (use of 2 shift operations, floor space for
assembly tasks, crane utilization studies)• Maximizing free float for non critical path tasks (ie procurements)• Front end loading system designs • Annual contingency set-asides• Resource leveling exercises to optimize techs and key engineers (did not
impact critical path or cost)
Scheduling - Process
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 8
Cost Basis - Resource types and Rates
• Resource Types, labor and overhead rates
Overhead and escalation rates
Labor Skills (hourly rates)
Non-Labor Resource
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 9
Contingency - Process
• Structured process - probabilistic risk analysis based (Monte Carlo Analysis)
• Objective was to assess and analyze all areas of uncertainty and risk that
might affect the cost and schedule estimates
• Project Risk Registry key input (grown from 36 to 88 risks & monitored monthly)
• Job Manager and Project Team input
• Cost and schedule contingencies quantified
• Contingency Allowance Range – 95%, 90% and 80% confidence levels
analyzed
Chris Gruber to provide comprehensive analysis
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 10
Contingency – Results
95% Confidence 90% Confidence 80% Confidence
Base Schedule ETC 47 months
Schedule Contingency 21.1 mos. 19.0 mos. 16.3 mos.
Base ETC Cost = $61.8 M
Cost Contingency $24.4 M $22.4 M $20.0 M
39% 36% 32%
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 11
Results – Cost ReconciliationNCSX Project TEC Budget
WBS
Baseline (ECP-31 DOE Directed re-baseline
April 2005) Cost to Date (1/31/08) ETC from 2/1/08Proposed Baseline EAC
MARCH 2008 Increase
12 Vacuum Vessel $9,531 $9,743 $1,429 $11,172 $1,641 17%13 Conventional Coils $4,790 $3,830 $4,256 $8,086 $3,296 69%14 Modular Coils $28,091 $38,172 $2,563 $40,735 $12,643 45%15 Structures $1,413 $550 $1,528 $2,078 $665 47%16 Coil Services $1,140 $3 $1,085 $1,088 -$52 -5%17 Cryostat & Base Support Structure $1,361 $489 $1,497 $1,986 $625 46%18 Field Period Assembly $5,430 $5,540 $14,412 $19,952 $14,522 267%19 Stellarator Core Mgmt & Integr $2,752 $2,317 $2,255 $4,572 $1,820 66%
1 Stellarator Core $54,508 $60,644 $29,024 $89,668 $35,160 65%
2 Auxiliary Systems $783 $348 $1,018 $1,366 $582 74%
3 Diagnostics $1,143 $1,131 $811 $1,942 $798 70%
4 Electrical Power Systems $3,301 $615 $2,718 $3,334 $32 1%
5 I&C Systems $2,050 $33 $2,099 $2,132 $81 4%
6 Facility Systems $691 $24 $2,423 $2,447 $1,756 254%
7 Test Cell Prep & Machine Assy
$4,413 $708 $8,577 $9,285 $4,871 110%81 Project Management and Oversight $4,509 $4,025 $4,814 $8,839 $4,331 96%82 Project Engineering $4,885 $6,500 $7,608 $14,107 $9,223 189%84 Project Physics $470 $470 $470 $0 0%85 Integrated Systems Testing $1,189 $0 $795 $795 -$394 -33%
8 Project Oversight & Support $11,052 $10,995 $13,216 $24,211 $13,159 119%
Allocations $1,577 $1,792 $1,928 $3,720 $2,143 136%
Subtotal $79,521 $76,290 $61,814 $138,104 $58,582 74%
Contingency $12,804 $22,410DCMA $75 $75 $75
TOTAL $92,401 $76,365 $61,814 $160,589 $68,188 74%
Planned Finish = Feb-09 Jan-12 35 mo. IncreaseCD-4 = Jul-09 Aug-13 49 mo. IncreaseSchedule Contingency = 5 mo. 19 mo.
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 12
Results – Cost Detail by Job
JOB ETC (bottoms-up) from 2/1/08
JOB ETC (bottoms-up) from 2/1/08
Job: 1204 - VV Sys Procurements (nonVVSA)-DUDEK 221 Job: 2101 - Fueling Systems-BLANCHARD 338
Job: 1260 NB Transition Ducts- GORANSON 567 Job: 2201 - Vacuum Pumping Systems-BLANCHARD 679
Job: 1270 - Heater Control System-GORANSON 642 Job: 3101 - Magnetic Diagnostics-STRATTON 411
Job: 1302 - PF Design -KALISH 91 Job: 3601 - Edge Divertor Diagnostics-STRATTON 30
Job: 1352 - PF Coil Procurement-CHRZANOWSKI 1,638 Job: 3801 - Electron Beam Mapping-STRATTON 258
Job: 1353 - CS Structure Procurement-DAHLGREN 357 Job: 3901 - Diagnostics sys Integration-STRATTON 112
Job: 1354 - Trim Coil Design &Procurement-KALISH 1,433 Job: 4101 - AC Power-RAMAKRISHNAN 154
Job: 1355 - WBS 13 I&C Proc and Coil Assy-KALISH 110 Job: 4301 - DC Systems-RAMAKRISHNAN 579
Job: 1361 - TF Fabrication-KALISH 628 Job: 4401 - Control & Protection-RAMAKRISHNAN 1,080
Job: 1408 - MC Winding Supplies-CHRZANOWSKI 124 Job: 4501 - Power Sys Dsn & Integr-RAMAKRISHNAN 905
Job: 1416 - Mod Coil Type AB Fnl Dsn-WILLIAMSON 140 Job: 5101 - Network and Fiber-SICHTA 221
Job: 1421 - Mod Coil Interface Design-WILLIAMSON 28 Job: 5201 - I&C Systems-SICHTA 412
Job: 1429 - MC Interface R&D-DUDEK 4 Job: 5301 - Data Acquisition-SICHTA 166
Job: 1431 - Mod. Coil Interface Hardware-DUDEK 1,074 Job: 5401 - Facility Timing -SICHTA 358
Job: 1451 - Mod Coil Winding-CHRZANOWSKI 909 Job: 5501 - Real Time Control -SICHTA 502
Job: 1459 - Mod Coil Fabr.Punch List-CHRZANOWSKI 283 Job: 5601 - Central Safety &Interlock Sys-SICHTA 372
Job: 1501 - Coil Structures Design-DAHLGREN 89 Job: 5801 - Central I&C Integr& Oversight-SICHTA 67
Job: 1550 - Coil Struct. Procurement -DAHLGREN 1,439 Job: 6101 - Water Systems-DUDEK 112
Job: 1601 - Coil Services Design-GORANSON 1,085 Job: 6201 - Cryogenic Syst-RAFTOPOLOUS 1,568
Job: 1701 - Cryostat Design-RAFTOPOLOUS 578 Job: 6301 - Utility Systems-DUDEK 109
Job: 1751 - Cryostat Procurement-RAFTOPOLOUS 550 Job: 6401 - PFC/VV Htng/Cooling(bakeout)- KALISH 634
Job: 1702 - Base Support Struct Design-DAHLGREN 139 Job: 7301 - Platform Design -PERRY 213
Job: 1752 - Base Support Proc-DAHLGREN 230 Job: 7401 - TC Prep & Mach Assy Planning-PERRY 2,323
Job: 1802 - FP Assy Oversight&Support-VIOLA 3,826 Job: 7501 - Construction Support Crew-PERRY 1,325
Job: 1803/1805- FPA Tooling/Constr-BROWN/DUDEK 994 Job: 7503 - Machine Assembly (station 6)-PERRY 4,317
Job: 1806 - FP Assembly specs-COLE 360 Job: 7601 - Tooling Design & Fabrication-PERRY 399
Job:1810-Field Period Assy -Station 1 2 3 VIOLA 7,343 Job: 8101 - Project Management &Control-REJ 4,160
Job: 1815 - Field Period Assy Station 5 1,888 Job: 8102 - NCSX MIE Management ORNL-HARRIS 654
Job: 1901 - Stellarator Core Mngtt&Integr-COLE 2,255 Job: 8202 - Engr Mgmt & Sys Eng Support-HEITZENROEDER 3,254
Job: 8203 - Design Integration-BROWN 2,581
Job: 8204 - Systems Analysis-BROOKS 1,032
Job: 8205 - Dimensional Control Coordin-ELLIS 542
Job: 8215 Plant Design-PERRY 200
Job: 8501 - Integrated Systems Testing-GENTILE 795
Job: 8998 - Allocations-STRYKOWSKY 1,928
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 13
Results – Cost/Percent CompletionDesign Completion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 - StellaratorCore
2 - AuxiliarySystems
3 - Diagnostics 4 - ElectricalPower
Systems
5 - I&CSystems
6 - FacilitySystems
Design Completion
0%
10%20%
30%
40%50%
60%
70%
80%90%
100%
12 - VacuumVessel
13 -Conventional
Coils
14 - ModularCoils
15 -Structures
16 - CoilServices
17 - Cryostat& BaseSupport
Structure
18 - FieldPeriod
Assembly
Project Completion Analysis
Design R&D Procure Fab & AssyMgt &
Oversight TOTAL
12 Vacuum Vessel Spent $k) $1,641 $1,787 $6,315 $0 $9,743Total ($k) $1,864 $1,787 $7,305 $216 $11,172
13 Conventional Coils Spent $k) $1,278 $0 $2,016 $536 $3,830Total ($k) $1,665 $0 $5,670 $751 $8,086
14 Modular Coils Spent $k) $6,297 $5,454 $12,938 $13,483 $38,172Total ($k) $6,461 $5,456 $13,963 $14,855 $40,735
15 Structures Spent $k) $550 $0 $0 $0 $550Total ($k) $639 $0 $1,427 $12 $2,0784
16 Coil Services Spent $k) $3 $0 $0 $0 $3Total ($k) $392 $24 $493 $179 $1,088
17 Cryostat & Base Support Structure Spent $k) $489 $0 $0 $0 $489Total ($k) $1,206 $0 $780 $0 $1,986
18 Field Period Assembly Spent $k) $1,439 $0 $7 $4,094 $5,540Total ($k) $2,520 $0 $362 $17,070 $19,952
1 Stellarator Core Spent $k) $11,697 $7,241 $21,276 $18,113 $58,327Total ($k) $14,747 $7,267 $30,000 $33,083 $85,097
79% 100% 71% 55% 69%
2 Auxiliary Systems Spent $k) $348 $0 $0 $0 $348Total ($k) $784 $0 $215 $367 $1,366
44% - 0% 0% 25%
3 Diagnostics Spent $k) $565 $0 $0 $566 $1,131Total ($k) $938 $0 $68 $936 $1,942
60% - 0% 60% 58%
4 Electrical Power Systems Spent $k) $615 $0 $0 $0 $615Total ($k) $1,369 $0 $216 $1,749 $3,334
45% - 0% 0% 18%
5 I&C Systems Spent $k) $33 $0 $0 $0 $33Total ($k) $818 $0 $624 $690 $2,132
4% - 0% 0% 2%
6 Facility Systems Spent $k) $24 $0 $0 $0 $24Total ($k) $896 $104 $722 $725 $2,447
3% 0% 0% 0% 1%
7 Test Cell Prep & Machine Assy Spent $k) $0 $0 $0 $708 $708Total ($k) $0 $0 $367 $8,918 $9,285
- - - 8% 8%Sub-TOTAL Spent $k) $13,282 $7,241 $21,276 $19,387 $61,186
Total ($k) $19,552 $7,371 $32,212 $46,468 $105,603
% complete 68% 98% 66% 42% 58%
19 & 8Stellarator Core Mgnt/Integration & Project management & Engr Spent $k) $0 $0 $0 $0 $15,179 $15,179
Total ($k) $0 $0 $0 $0 $32,578 $32,578
Grand Total Spent $k) $13,282 $7,241 $21,276 $19,387 $15,179 $76,365Total ($k) $19,552 $7,371 $32,212 $46,468 $32,578 $138,179
% complete 68% 98% 66% 42% 55%
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 14
Results – Program BA Profile
•Delayed research start•Contingency distribution tempered by maximizing non-critical path free float (i.e. provide margin for vendor delays)
FUNDING PROFILE2003-07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
TOTAL PROGRAM 16.6 20.3 20.8 38.7 52.3 52.8
Research,Ops, & upgrades 0.7 0.7 0.7 16.6 43.7 52.8
MIE Project 74.2 15.9 19.6 20.1 22.1 8.6 -
MIE Project by Institution 72.5 15.9 19.6 20.1 22.1 8.6 - (contingency included in PPPL, ORNL lines) - 2.7 3.0 10.1 6.5
(contingency as % of BCWS) 16% 18% 84% 318%
PPPL 1.6 14.1 18.1 19.1 21.2 8.3 - ORNL 0.2 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.3
carryover
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 15
Results – Schedule (Summary)
•Critical path through field period assembly, final machine assembly and start-up operations•Major procurement of components as well as ancillary system have ample schedule margin (months off critical path)
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 16
Critical Procurements Well Off Critical Path
Stellarator Core Critical Procurements Schedule Margin
job ProcurementEstimated Fabr
Lead Time (mos.)Months off critical path schedule margin
1260 Neutral Beam Transition Ducts 12 8.3 + 69%
1361 TF Coils (10 left) 6.5 23.2 357%
1352 PF Coils 16 14.5 91%
1354 Trim Coils 6 12 200%
1353 Central Solenoid Support structure 6 7.3 + 122%
1550 Coil Support Structure 5 8.7 + 174%
1451 Last Modular Coil (3 reminaining) 5 4.4 88%
1601 Coil Services -Lead stubs & LN manifolds 4.3 11 256%
1601 Coil Services -Cables 6 16 267%
1752 Base Support Structure 8 8.4 + 105%
1751 Cryostat 13.8 5.5 40%
1803 Station 5 Fixtures 5 11.4 228%
1803 Station 6 Fixtures 7 9.3 133%
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 17
Results – Milestones
• Milestones provide good metric of schedule progress• Distribution of milestones reasonable
Milestone
Number P3 id Activity description Early finish
DOE MILESTONE
34 TRIM-101 ** Trim Coil PDR ** 12-Mar-08 Mar-0835 TRIM-221 ** Trim Coil + Structure FDR ** 28-Apr-08 Jun-0836 1702-525M Base Support Structure FDR 30-Apr-08 Jul-0837 141-036 PF Coils Awarded 30-May-08 Aug-0838 TRIM-250 AWARD TRIM COIL PROCUREMENT 10-Jun-08 Sep-0839 P3-171VM COMPLETE VPI OF 18th MOD COIL 28-Aug-08 Nov-0840 451-2-3 Power system - PDR 22-Sep-08 Dec-0841 1351-195X ALL TF COILS DELIVERED 15-Oct-08 Jan-0942 162-036.9 Award Coil Support Structure 2-Oct-08 Feb-0943 1803-605M Station 6 Specification & Assy Drawings Complete 2-Oct-08 Mar-0944 S21-11.07M Complete 1st MCHP Assy (Sta 2) 4-Nov-08 May-0945 TRIM-270M Trim Coils for FPA #1 Delivered 8-Dec-08 Jun-0946 1701-100M Cryostat- CDR 23-Dec-08 Jul-0947 2-3-11.09M Complete 3rd MCHP Assy (Sta.2) 30-Mar-09 Oct-0948 162-037M Deliver Coil Structure components 4-Mar-09 Oct-0949 1352-145M PF 5&6 Lower Delivered 23-Mar-09 Dec-0950 S31-10.02M Complete 1st MC-VV Assy (Sta 3) 22-May-09 Jan-1051 S51-14.03M Complete 1st Field Period Assy (Sat. 5) 12-Nov-09 May-1052 451-202.2 Power systems C-Site - FDR 27-Oct-09 Aug-1053 S32-10.02M Complete 2nd MC-VV Assy (Sta 3) 5-Jan-10 Sep-1054 1701-141 Cryostat- FDR 18-Dec-09 Oct-1055 S33-10.02M Complete 3rd MC-VV Assy (Sta 3) 24-Mar-10 Dec-1056 7501-10.4M Complete Base Support Structure Assembly 18-Mar-10 Feb-1157 S52-14.03M Complete 2nd Field Period Assy. (Sta.5) 18-Jun-10 Mar-1158 7503-150 FPA-3 Installed on sleds 16-Aug-10 Jun-1159 431-275M C-site DC Systems Installed 3-Aug-10 Jun-1160 380-135M E-beam mapping apparatus ready for Installation 12-Jan-11 Oct-1161 7503-412M Move FPA's & spacers together/chk fitup complete 12-Jan-11 Nov-1162 R56-70M Compl Central Safety&Interlock Sys Pre-ops Tests 17-Feb-11 Feb-1263 S-6-15.04M Vacuum Vessel Welding complete (3 FP's) 22-Apr-11 Jul-1264 7503-250 Begin Vac Vsl Pumpdown 8-Jul-11 Oct-1265 S-6-22.11M ALL PF Coils Installed 17-Aug-11 Dec-1266 7503-330 Begin Cryostat Installation 23-Sep-11 Feb-1367 730.125 PSO Operational Readiness Assessment 7-Nov-11 Apr-1368 8501-304 Begin Start-up Testing 14-Nov-11 May-1369 730.8200M Cooldown of Machine 21-Nov-11 May-1370 8501-110 NCSX Startup Complete 5-Jan-12 Aug-13
1-Mar-0831-Mar-0830-Apr-08
31-May-0830-Jun-0831-Jul-08
30-Aug-0829-Sep-0830-Oct-0829-Nov-0830-Dec-0829-Jan-091-Mar-09
31-Mar-0930-Apr-09
31-May-0930-Jun-0931-Jul-09
30-Aug-0929-Sep-0930-Oct-0929-Nov-0930-Dec-0929-Jan-101-Mar-10
31-Mar-1030-Apr-10
31-May-1030-Jun-1031-Jul-10
30-Aug-1029-Sep-1030-Oct-1029-Nov-1030-Dec-1029-Jan-111-Mar-11
31-Mar-1130-Apr-11
31-May-1130-Jun-1131-Jul-11
30-Aug-1129-Sep-1130-Oct-1129-Nov-1130-Dec-1129-Jan-1229-Feb-1230-Mar-1229-Apr-12
30-May-1229-Jun-1230-Jul-12
29-Aug-1228-Sep-1229-Oct-1228-Nov-1229-Dec-1228-Jan-1328-Feb-1330-Mar-1329-Apr-13
30-May-1329-Jun-1330-Jul-13
29-Aug-13
34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
Milestone Number
Mo
nth
Early finish
DOE MILESTONE
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 18
Results – Resource Loaded Schedule
Resource skill and hours (from
WAF)
Cost (= hours x rates)
Total float in working days (~1 month = 21 days)Planning assumption: 1
shift per day or 2 shifts per day
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 19
Technician Requirements
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Computer Technicians
Electrical Technicians
Mechancial Technicians
Total Technicians
Staffing Requirements- Technicians
• Staffing requirements achievable and being satisfied
TFTR D&D manpower profile for comparison
Current level
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 20
Staffing Requirements- Engrs & Designers
TOTAL DESIGNERS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
current staff = 10
staff as of August 2007 = 8
TOTAL Electrical ENGINEERS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19current staff = 19
staff as of August 2007 = 18
TOTAL EA Engineers
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18current staff = 18
staff as of August 2007 = 16
TOTAL FO&M ENGINEERS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
current staff = 17
staff as of August 2007 = 14
Needs being met with new hires to provide depth & backup
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 21
Staffing Requirements- ORNL & Metrology
ORNL Management/Engrs/Designers
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
PPPL Metrology Staff
0
2
4
6
8
10
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 22
Project Controls Systems Implemented
• August 2007 Proposed Baseline used as interim baseline for tracking• Weekly Project Meeting
– Safety– Weekly look-ahead schedule (RLM led discussion)– Follow-up actions
• Monthly Project performance assessment meetings─ Schedule progress─ Level 2 & 3 milestones─ Cost and Staffing─ Issues─ Risk Registry─ ETC changes
• Monthly Reporting– Management summary overview– Cost performance (EVMS) reports
– Variance analysis at job level– Risk Registry– Trending (performance, contingency, ETC)– Milestones– Critical Path– RLM Prepared variance analysis (with help of Job Managers)
• Monthly Director's Office and Princeton University Review• Customer meetings (IPT, Weekly, Quarterly)• 6-month bottoms-up ETC• Change Control
– Engineering Change Proposals (ECP) – 5 processed since August 2008 (technical only)
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 23
EIR Summary Assessments
1. Resource loaded Schedule• Organized by WBS (refer to WBS and WBS Dictionary)• Resource estimate loading based on detail WAF (see detailed
WAF packages).• Estimates basis; National Standards, Engineering Judgement/Experience,
Estimates/Data from External Sources (e.g., W7X, ATF, etc.), Previous PPPL/ORNL Experience (e.g., TFTR, NSTX, PLT, etc.), Prototype Data/Test Results, Catalogue Price/Vendor Quote, Placed Contracts, Actual experience for NCSX Work
• Task durations based on realistic manpower loadings and crew sizes. Balance of task durations based on reasonable loadings Schedule detail commensurate with schedule criticality (e.g. wbs 18 job 1810. minimum task duration 1 day).
• Proposed baseline BCWS and contingency profile consistent with anticipated funding levels.
• Shows estimate detail and priced cost estimate (see resource loaded schedule)
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 24
EIR Summary Assessments (continued)
2. Key Project Cost and Schedule Assumptions
• Standard 8 hour/day 5 day/week work assumed except where 2 shift operations called out in resource loaded schedule. (see slide 10 & 11)
• Institutional overhead and labor rates utilized (see slide 12)• Contingency quantified based on estimate uncertainty and risk
using Monte Carlo simulation plus a subjective increment based on project management experience. (see slides 13 & 14 and detailed contingency analysis)
• Contingency distributed annually consistent with needs.
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 25
EIR Summary Assessments (continued)
3. Critical Path
• See critical path plot on wall • See detail Primavera predecessor & successor report for logic
linkages
4. Funding Profile
• Project proposed baseline consistent with preliminary guidance (see slide 20)
5. Work Breakdown Structure
• Resource loaded schedule is organized by WBS (see WBS and WBS Dictionary)
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 26
SUMMARY
• Project has followed a disciplined path for updating its ETC
highlighted by;• Formal & consistent basis of estimate
• Independent reviews by PPPL engineering and PU
• Focus on obtaining realistic estimates from job managers
• Project has followed a methodical process for quantifying cost as
well as schedule contingency.
• Project has expanded its risk registry and incorporated into monthly
status review meetings
• Project has proposed a sound baseline cost estimate backed-up by
a resource loaded schedule and detailed estimate basis.
• Project is monitoring, reporting and communicating performance to
stake holders.
SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 27
DETAILED STAFFING BACKUP
Name Job FEB FY08
MAR FY08
APR FY08
MAY FY08
JUN FY08
JUL FY08
AUG FY08
SEP FY08
OCT FY09
NOV FY09
DEC FY09
JAN FY09
FEB FY09
MAR FY09
APR FY09
MAY FY09
JUN FY09
JUL FY09
AUG FY09
SEP FY09
OCT FY10
NOV FY10
DEC FY10
BLANCHARD Job: 2101 - Fueling Systems-BLANCHARD 1.38 0.16 0.17 0.28 0.29 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01BLANCHARD Job: 2201 - Vacuum Pumping Systems-BLANCHARD 3.74 0.33 0.26 0.25 0.3 0.33 0.4 0.4 0.37 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03
BLANCHARD subtotal = 5.1 - - - - - - - - 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 DUDEK Job: 6301 - Utility Systems-DUDEK 0.86DUDEK Job: 6101 - Water Systems-DUDEK 0.99DUDEK Job: 8202 - Engr Mgmt & Sys Eng Sprt-HEITZENROED34.34 0.83 0.83 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.67 0.63 0.78 0.74 0.81 0.81 0.74 0.81 0.81 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.66 0.56
DUDEK subtotal = 36.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 GENTILE Job: 8501 - Integrated Systems Testing-GENTILE 7.61 0.48 0.71 0.64 0.53 0.45 0.59 0.53 0.59 0.52 0.49 0.56 0.59 0.31 0.43
GENTILE subtotal = 7.6 - - - - - - - - - 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 LABIK Job: 3601 - Edge Divertor Diagnostics-STRATTON 0.26 0.07 0.06LABIK Job: 3801 - Electron Beam Mapping-STRATTON 1.07 0.22 0.21 0.2 0.17LABIK Job: 3101 - Magnetic Diagnostics-STRATTON 5.25 0.96 0.69 0.66 0.21 0.11 0.12 0.16 0.17 1.18 0.1 0.27 0.16 0.05 0.07 0.06
LABIK subtotal = 6.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 LANGISH Job: 1451 - Mod Coil Winding-CHRZANOWSKI 3.64 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.45 0.45
LANGISH subtotal = 3.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PERRY Job: 1752 - Base Support Proc-PERRY 0.29 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0PERRY Job: 1550 - Coil Struct. Procurement -PERRY 0.51 0.09 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.08PERRY Job: 7601 - Tooling Design & Fabrication-PERRY 0.55PERRY Job: 7301 - Platform Design & 0.8 0.06 0.15 0.27 0.23 0.09PERRY Job: 8215 Plant Design 2.15 0.31 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04PERRY Job: 7401 - TC Prep & Mach Assy Planning-PERRY 31.49 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.46 0.46 0.51 0.4 0.37 0.46 0.44 0.48 0.48 0.44 0.48 0.48 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.46 0.51
PERRY subtotal = 35.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 SANDS Job: 1802 - FP Assy Oversight&Support-VIOLA 20.09 0.1 0.69 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.75 0.59 0.56 0.69 0.65 0.72 0.72 0.65 0.72 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.72 0.62 0.52
SANDS subtotal = 20.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 SMITH Job: 1803/1805- FPA Tooling/Constr-BROWN/DUDEK 3.2 1.46 0.94 0.13 0.4 0.18 0.09SMITH Job: 7401 - TC Prep & Mach Assy Planning-PERRY 4.47SMITH Job: 8205 - Dimensional Control Coordin-ELLIS 6.42 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.29 0.29 0.26 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.3 0.25 0.2SMITH Job: 1802 - FP Assy Oversight&Support-VIOLA 10.78 0.65 0.65 0.68 0.65 0.65 0.32 0.25 0.24 0.29 0.28 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.31 0.31 0.29 0.29 0.36 0.31 0.26SMITH Job: 8203 - Design Integration-BROWN 14.05 0.41 0.32 0.3 0.37 0.35 0.39 0.39 0.35 0.39 0.39 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.34 0.28
SMITH subtotal = 38.9 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 VIOLA Job: 1802 - FP Assy Oversight&Support-VIOLA 27.02 0.92 0.92 0.96 0.92 0.92 0.96 0.92 0.92 1.01 0.79 0.75 0.92 0.88 0.97 0.97 0.88 0.97 0.97 0.92 0.92 0.97 0.84 0.7
VIOLA subtotal = 27.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 unassigned Job: 1421 - Mod Coil Interface Design-WILLIAMSON0.17 0.17 unassigned Job: 7601 - Tooling Design & Fabrication-PERRY 0.2 unassigned Job: 1601 - Coil Services Design-GORANSON 0.51 0.07 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.01 unassigned Job: 7503 - Machine Assembly (station 6)-PERRY 0.66 unassigned Job: 1810 - Field Period AssyStation 1 2 3 VIOLA 1.84 0.64 0.36 0.42 0.14 0.01 0.27 unassigned Job: 8501 - Integrated Systems Testing-GENTILE 2.07 unassigned Job: 1815 - Field Period Assy 3.67 0.32 0.44 0.57 unassigned Job: 7401 - TC Prep & Mach Assy Planning-PERRY 9.33
unassigned subtotal = 18.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 - - 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 - - - - - 0.3 0.4 0.6 -
TOTAL FO&M ENGINEERS = 199.4 6.4 5.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.6 5.7 4.5 4.4 5.2 4.7 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.2 4.6 4.4 5.1 5.5 4.7 3.6
Assigned = 91%
Job FEB FY08
MAR FY08
APR FY08
MAY FY08
JUN FY08
JUL FY08
Job: 2101 - Fueling Systems-BLANCHARD 1.38Job: 2201 - Vacuum Pumping Systems-BLANCHARD 3.74
BLANCHARD subtotal = 5.1 - - - - - - Job: 6301 - Utility Systems-DUDEK 0.86Job: 6101 - Water Systems-DUDEK 0.99Job: 8202 - Engr Mgmt & Sys Eng Sprt-HEITZENROED34.34 0.83 0.83 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.87
DUDEK subtotal = 36.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 Job: 8501 - Integrated Systems Testing-GENTILE 7.61
GENTILE subtotal = 7.6 - - - - - - Job: 3601 - Edge Divertor Diagnostics-STRATTON 0.26Job: 3801 - Electron Beam Mapping-STRATTON 1.07Job: 3101 - Magnetic Diagnostics-STRATTON 5.25 0.96 0.69 0.66 0.21 0.11 0.12
LABIK subtotal = 6.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 Job: 1451 - Mod Coil Winding-CHRZANOWSKI 3.64 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.45 0.45 0.47
LANGISH subtotal = 3.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5