1 Short-Range QPF for Flash Flood Prediction and Small Basin Forecasts Prediction Forecasts David Kitzmiller, Yu Zhang, Wanru Wu, Shaorong Wu, Feng Ding 1 Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland 2 June 2010
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Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland 2 June 2010
Short-Range QPF for Flash Flood Prediction and Small Basin Forecasts Prediction Forecasts David Kitzmiller, Yu Zhang , Wanru Wu, Shaorong Wu, Feng Ding. Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland 2 June 2010. 1. 1. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Short-Range QPF for Flash Flood Prediction and Small Basin Forecasts
Office of Hydrologic DevelopmentNOAA National Weather Service
Silver Spring, Maryland
2 June 2010
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Recent performance of the High Resolution Precipitation Nowcaster (HPN) algorithm in 0-1 hour time frame
Detection of precipitation at 25mm h-1 thresholds Verification at 16 km2 grid resolution (4x4 km)
An approach to QPF in the 0-6-hour range Does blending of physical and extrapolation model precipitation
forecasts improve on either one, in the 0-6-hour time frame? HPN was targeted for FFMP application 0-6h QPF targeted primarily for RFC use, but there are
potential applications to Site Specific
In this discussion:
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Based purely on extrapolation of radar echoes Implemented in OB9.0, following implementation of High-
Rainfall rate at 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes 1-hour rainfall total
Forecasts are computed on 4-km grid mesh, output on 1-km grid mesh
Can incorporate gauge/radar bias information from MPE See WDTB flash flood modules:http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/buildTraining/AWIPS_OB9/index.html
HPN Extrapolation Forecastsin the 0-1 Hour Timeframe:
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HPN verification study:September-October 2009
HPN was run in offline mode over the conterminous U.S., during development of 0-6h QPF algorithm
First two hours of the extrapolation forecast are from HPN algorithm
Input from NMQ radar-only precipitation rate algorithm Forecasts verified relative to subsequent NMQ radar-
only precipitation estimates 30 study hours over 15 days, 15 Sep-31 October Verified detection of ≥12.5mm and ≥ 25mm amounts Documented performance relative to persistence
forecast (initial-time rain rates)
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Example HPN Input/Forecast/Verification
Radar Rainrate1845 UTC24 Sep 2009
NMQ Estimate1845-1945 UTC
HPN Forecast1845-1945 UTC
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POD FAR CSI
HPN 25mm Persistence 25mm
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POD FAR CSI
HPN 12.5mm Persistence 12.5mm
HPN verification study: Detection of 4x4km rainfall