Office of Coast Survey Overview of the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System for the Pacific Jesse Feyen and Jiangtao Xu National Ocean.

Office of Coast Survey

Overview of the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast

System for the Pacific

Jesse Feyen and Jiangtao XuNational Ocean Service/Office of Coast Survey/

Coast Survey Development Laboratory


ESTOFS Overview– Operational guidance for extratropical surge and tides

• Large scale prediction of coastal water levels• Insufficient TC resolution and lacks hurricane forcing

– Provide surge+tide boundary conditions for NWS’s Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS)

• Mimics WAVEWATCHIII® (WW3) set-up– Operational for Atlantic since Oct 2012

Historically extreme surge event in Pacific

(Astoria OR 2/4/2006)

West Coast WLs tend to be dominated by tide range versus surge


Model design considerations• Ocean boundary location

– Selected to cover West Coast and Hawaii while avoiding complex tidal amphidromes

• Land boundary– MHW shoreline; cannot predict overland inundation– 2-3 km resolution to maintain large domain efficiency but limits capacity to resolve bays and estuaries– Limits accuracy of tidal prediction in complex and dynamic estuaries

• Water level accuracy goal of 0.20 cm RMSE or 20% of tide range, if larger


ESTOFS Operational Set-up

• Run cycle – 4 times per day during 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z cycles– 6-hr nowcast followed by 180-hr forecast– Global Forecast System (GFS) forcing: 10 m winds

and sea level pressure fields input every 3 hours– Approximately 120 min run time– Runs a tidal simulation followed by tide+wind driven

simulation; the surge signal is isolated by subtracting tide predictions from surge+tide predicted water level


ESTOFS Output

• Delivers three types of water level– Combined Water Level (CWL): Surge + tides– Harmonic Tidal Prediction (HTP): Astronomical tides– Subtidal Water Level (SWL): SWL = CWL – HTP =

“surge”

• Provides both fields (hourly) and points (6 min)• Generates output on native unstructured grid

(NetCDF) and NDFD structured grid (GRIB2)– http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/estofs/prod– http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/– GRIB2 will be eventually available via SBN for AWIPS


M2

Domain Boundary Location SelectionK1

Tested two boundaries; the black dashed line indicates final boundary from TPXO8 forcing with a 20% increase in M2 amp.

Office of Coast SurveySlide 7

ESTOFS-Pacific Evaluation Webinar

ESTOFS-Pac Model Grid132630 Nodes

Size ranges: 850 m - 60 km



ESTOFS-Pac Model GridCook Inlet

Hawaiian Islands

Puget Sound

Columbia River

San Francisco Bay


ESTOFS-Pacific Water Level Fields

ESTOFS-Pacific grid (NetCDF) NDFD CONUS-2.5km, Alaska-6km, and Hawaii-2.5 km grids (GRIB2)

-200 -180 -160 -140 -120 -100 -800

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


ESTOFS Animationshttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_pacific_surge_info.shtml

CWL animations also available


ESTOFS Hydrographs

NWS/MDL has created a mirror of

its ET-Surge website to display ESTOFS Pacific in the same manner people are

used to viewing ETSS in the Pacific

NWS/MDL has created a mirror of

its ET-Surge website to display ESTOFS Pacific in the same manner people are

used to viewing ETSS in the Pacific

http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/


Hindcast Validation Study (Dec. 2004-Feb. 2006)

GFS analysis 6 hourly 1° x 1° fields provides forcing•10 m winds and pressure at MSL

Water levels exceeded the 10% annual exceedance probability levels (i.e. 1 in 10-year event) for 3 storms:•1/7-1/11 2005: San Diego; La Jolla; Los Angeles; Santa Monica; Port San Luis; Monterey; San Francisco; Alameda; Point Reyes•12/30/2005-1/1/2006: Crescent City, CA; San Francisco, CA; Alameda, CA; Astoria, OR; South Beach, OR; Charleston, OR; Neah Bay, WA; Port Angeles, WA•2/4/2006: Astoria, OR; Toke Point, WA; Cherry Point, WA; Friday Harbor, WA; Port Angeles, WA


Water Level Skill Assessment - Combined WL

-123 -122.5 -12237.2

37.4

37.6

37.8

38

38.2

38.4

Longitude

Latit

ude

Combined WL RMSE (m)

9415144

9437540

9440569

9440910

9444090 9444900

9446484

9447130

9449424

9449880

9450460

9452210

9452400

9454050

9454240

9455500

9455760

9455920

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-126 -124 -122

45

46

47

48

49

50

Longitude

Latit

ude


9415144

9437540

9440569

9440910

94440909444900

9446484

9447130

94494249449880

9450460

9452210

9452400

9454050

9454240

9455500

9455760

9455920

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-155 -150 -145

54

56

58

60

62

64

Longitude

Latit

ude


9415144

94375409440569

9440910

94440909444900

94464849447130

94494249449880

9450460

9452210

9452400

94540509454240

9455500

94557609455920

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-180 -160 -140 -120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Longitude

Latit

ude


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-140 -135 -130

52

54

56

58

60

62

Longitude

Latit

ude


9415144

9437540

94405699440910

94440909444900

94464849447130

94494249449880

9450460

9452210

9452400

94540509454240

9455500

94557609455920

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Largest errors are located well inside complex estuaries


ESTOFS-Pac Hindcast Water Level Skill Assessment

Stations

CA OR WA AK HI

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

9411

340

9414

523

9416

841

9435

380

9442

396

9447

130

9452

210

9454

240

9457

292

1612

480

CombinedTidalSurge

Cook I

nlet

Port C

hicag

o

Anchora

ge

Port C

hicag

o

Accuracy benchmark

Errors exceeding accuracy benchmark driven by challenging tidal dynamics or locations far inside complex estuaries


ESTOFS-Pac Hindcast Water Level Skill Assessment (RMSE relative to mean tidal range (MN))

Stations

CA OR WA AK HI

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

CombinedTidalSurge

Co

ok

Inle

t

Port C

hicag

o

Anc

ho

rag

e

Port C

hicag

o

Accuracy benchmark

Errors exceeding accuracy benchmark relative to mean tide range limited to few locations far inside complex estuaries


-123.5 -123 -122.5 -122 -121.5 -121

36.5

37

37.5

38

9413450

01/01/05 04/01/05 07/01/05 10/01/05 01/01/06-2

-1

0

1

2

01/01/05 04/01/05 07/01/05 10/01/05 01/01/06-0.5

0

0.5

Obs.

Model

Monterey, CA

Surge WL

Combined WL

-190 -180 -170 -160 -150 -140 -130 -120 -110 -1000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


9413450

01/01/05

-1

0

1

01/01/05

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

Obs.

Model

Monterey, CA

Surge WL

Combined WL


9418767

01/01/05 04/01/05 07/01/05 10/01/05 01/01/06-2

-1

0

1

2

01/01/05 04/01/05 07/01/05 10/01/05 01/01/06-0.5

0

0.5

1

Obs.

Model

Humbolt Bay, CA

Surge WL

Combined WL

-200 -180 -160 -140 -120 -1000

20

40

60

80

-124.4 -124.3 -124.2 -124.1

40.65

40.7

40.75

40.8

40.85

40.9


9418767

12/24/04 12/29/04 01/03/05 01/08/05 01/13/05 01/18/05 01/23/05 01/28/05 02/02/05-2

-1

0

1

2

12/24/04 12/29/04 01/03/05 01/08/05 01/13/05 01/18/05 01/23/05 01/28/05 02/02/05-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Obs.

Model

Humbolt Bay, CA

Surge WL

Combined WL

-200 -180 -160 -140 -120 -1000

20

40

60

80

-124.4 -124.3 -124.2 -124.1

40.65

40.7

40.75

40.8

40.85

40.9


Neah Bay, WA9443090

01/01/05 04/01/05 07/01/05 10/01/05 01/01/06-4

-2

0

2

4

01/01/05 04/01/05 07/01/05 10/01/05 01/01/06-0.5

0

0.5

1

Obs.

Model

Surge WL

Combined WL

-126 -125 -124 -123 -122

47

48

49

50

-200 -180 -160 -140 -120 -1000

20

40

60

80


9443090

01/01/06 02/01/06

-1

0

1

2

01/01/06 02/01/06

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Obs.

Model

Neah Bay, WA

Surge WL

Combined WL

-126 -125 -124 -123 -122

47

48

49

50

-200 -180 -160 -140 -120 -1000

20

40

60

80


9447130

01/01/05 04/01/05 07/01/05 10/01/05 01/01/06-4

-2

0

2

4

01/01/05 04/01/05 07/01/05 10/01/05 01/01/06-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

Obs.

Model

Seattle, WA

Surge WL

Combined WL

-200 -180 -160 -140 -120 -1000

20

40

60

80

-123.5 -123 -122.5 -122

47.2

47.4

47.6

47.8

48

48.2


9447130

12/04/05 12/14/05 12/24/05 01/03/06 01/13/06 01/23/06 02/02/06-4

-2

0

2

4

12/04/05 12/14/05 12/24/05 01/03/06 01/13/06 01/23/06 02/02/06

-0.5

0

0.5

Obs.

Model

Seattle, WA

Surge WL

Combined WL

-200 -180 -160 -140 -120 -1000

20

40

60

80

-123.5 -123 -122.5 -122

47.2

47.4

47.6

47.8

48

48.2



ESTOFS-Pacific Real-Time Simulation Skills

• Surface Forcing:• GFS 3 hourly 0.5º x 0.5º prediction

fields (10 m winds and pressure at MSL)

• 05/06 - 06/05/2014 real-time test


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

H00-h00H06-h06H12-h12H18-h18H24-h24H30-h30H36-h36H42-h42H48-h48H54-h54H60-h60H66-h66H72-h72H78-h78H84-h84H90-h90H96-h96

ESTOFS-Pac Forecast Total Water Level Skill Assessment

Stations

CA OR WA AK HI

Port

Chi

cago

, CA


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

9411

340

9414

523

9415

102

9431

647

9439

040

9443

090

9449

424

9452

210

9454

240

9457

292

1612

480

ESTOFS-Pac Forecast Total Water Level Skill Assessment (RMSE relative to mean tidal range (MN))

Stations

CA OR WA AK HI

Co

ok

Inle

t

Port C

hicag

o

Port

Chi

cago

, CA


ESTOFS Development Team

• NOS/OCS/CSDL/Marine Modeling and Analysis Programs– Jesse Feyen, Yuji Funakoshi, Jiangtao Xu, Frank Aikman,

Mary Erickson• NWS/NCEP/EMC/Marine Modeling and Analysis

Branch– Andre van der Westhuysen, Hendrik Tolman

• NWS/NCEP/NCEP Central Operations– Steven Earle, Kit M, Chris Caruso Magee, Becky

Cosgrove, Boi Vong• NWS/NCEP/OPC

– Joe Sienkiewicz, Robert Daniels

Office of Coast Survey Overview of the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System for the Pacific Jesse Feyen and Jiangtao Xu National Ocean.

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