Theories of change Session 3 PMAP 8521: Program evaluation Andrew Young School of Policy Studies 1 / 26
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Theories of change
Session 3PMAP 8521: Program evaluation
Andrew Young School of Policy Studies1 / 26
Plan for today
Reproducibility
Program theories
Logic models & results chains
2 / 26
Reproducibility
3 / 26
Why am I making you learn R?
More powerful
Free and open source
Reproducibility
4 / 26
Debt:GDP ratio 90%+ → −0.1% growth Paul Ryan's 2013 House budget resolution
Austerity and Excel
5 / 26
Thomas Herndon From Paul Krugman, "The Excel Depression"
Austerity and Excel
6 / 26
Austerity and Excel
Debt:GDP ratio = 90%+ → 2.2% growth (!!)7 / 26
Septin 2 Membrane-Associated RingFinger (C3HC4) 1
2310009E13
Genes and Excel
20% of genetics papers between 2005–2015 (!!!)8 / 26
General guidelines
Don't touch the raw dataIf you do, explain what you did!
Use self-documenting, reproducible codeR Markdown!
Use open formatsUse .csv, not .xlsx
9 / 26
Airbnb, ggplot, and rmarkdown
The UK's reproducible analysis pipeline
R Markdown in real life
10 / 26
Program theories
11 / 26
InputsThings that go into an activity; money, people,
time, etc.
ActivitiesActions that convert inputs to outputs; things
that the program does
OutputsTangible goods and services produced by
activities; you have control over these
OutcomesWhat happens when the target population usesthe outputs; you don't have control over these
Elements of a program
Inputs → Activities → Outputs → Outcomes
12 / 26
Program theory
How and why an intervention causes change
A sequence of events that connects inputs to activities to outputs to outcomes
Why you think inputs → activities → outputs → outcomes
13 / 26
Impact theory
Causes (activities) linked to effects (outcomes)
14 / 26
One Laptop Per Child (OLPC)
15 / 26
Nov 16, 2005: The One Laptop perNov 16, 2005: The One Laptop per……
Adi Robertson, "OLPC's $100 laptop was going to change the world—then it all went wrong"
OLPC
16 / 26
PlayPumps
17 / 26
Implicit theoryWhat program designers think or
assume is going to happen, and why
Assumed
Articulated theoryWhat program designers officially
claim and predict, and why
Written down
Why theorize?
Should all social programs be rooted in explicit articulated theory?
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Impact theoryEnsure that the theory linking activities to the outcomes is sound!
21 / 26
Logic models & results chains
22 / 26
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Impact theory vs. logic model
25 / 26
MPA/MPP at GSU
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