October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 1
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October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 1
Wind energy market from the perspective of a major sub-supplier
Presented at EWEC 2009
Stefan Karlsson
Global Segment Manager – Renewable Energy
Marseille 2009-03-19
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 3
The dynamic wind energy market
1
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 4
Demographic Dynamics
Resource Scarcity Environmental Focus
Main reasons behind massive growth in wind energy
Growth in energy demand Security of energy supplyReduction of CO2-emission
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 5
Wind energy market size almost tripled in 5 years
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
250.0%
300.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Market 2002 as index=100%
Key challenges on supply chain;• Speed of growth – capacity constrains• Rapid globalisation – logistic challenges• Expanding turbine sizes – new & larger components• Lack of predictive maintenance – stock management
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 6
Wind industry technology challenges
Industry Key Issues• Wind gearbox technology• Pitch system technology• Testing of key-components• Offshore reliability• Cold climate applications• System for early detection of failures• Windfarm asset management• Lifetime return on investment
The SKF test-rig for the large mainshaft ”Nautilus” bearing.
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 7
Supply Chain Constrains - limiting market growth
Source: BTM-Supply Chain Assessment, August 2008
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 8
2SKF, a driving force in wind energy
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 9
SKF – a truly global company
Established: 1907
Sales 2008: SEK 63,361 million (~6 B€)
Employees: 44,799
Production sites: 110 in 28 countries
SKF presence: in over 130 countries
Distributors/dealers: 15,000 locations
Global certificates: ISO 14001
OHSAS 18001 certification
SKF group vision; ”To equip the world with SKF-
knowledge”
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 10
It is being present and active in:
What is SKF knowledge?
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 11
Pitch bearings
Yaw bearingMainshaft housingsand locknuts
Condition Monitoring WindCon/WebCon
Couplings
Automatic distributedlubrication system
Monitoring and diagnosticsservices
Mechanical repairs &refurbishment
Sealing solutions
Bolt tensioning toolsTower alignment services
EngineeringConsultancyServices
Plain bearings
Maintenance tools and grease
SKF contribution to wind turbine technology
Gearbox bearingsTRB/CRB/SRB/CARB/DRTRB
Generator bearingsDGBB/InsoCoated/Hybrid
Mainshaft bearing(s)SRB/CARB/TRB/DRTRB
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 12
Market growth vs. SKF growth in wind energy
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Wind market growth in MW SKF deliveries to Wind energy industry Index; Year 2002=100%
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 13
Capacity Development of SKF Large Size Bearings
•Complete new factory built in Dalian China 2006, expanded with additional capacity/range 2009.
• Complete new factory built in Ahmadabad, India will initate deliveries during 2009.
• New manufacturing channel for pitch & yaw-bearings built in Avallon, France 2006.
• New manufacturing channel for XXL-bearings in Göteborg, Sweden at present under construction.
• Capacity expansion at Hannover plant, USA, and at Schweinfurt plant, Germany
Capacity development;
2010 / 2005 +350%
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 14
SKF Large Size Bearing Capacity Development
SKF develops manufacturing capacity in line with plans from our key-customers in wind energy business community.
Being a truly global company, SKF is prepared to develop manufacturing capacity in new emerging markets, when justified.
Development of new manufacturing capacity has a long leadtime; For elimination of bottlenecks (new machinery leadtimes); 12-30
months To build a complete new manufacturing line; 18-30 months For a new greenfield manufacturing unit; 2-6 years (local
variations)
Need to focus on customer forecasts and capacity requirements 2011-2012.
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 15
3Predicting the future of wind….
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The growth has just started………..
Ten years ago, wind energy contributed to 0,1% of the worlds total generation of electricity.
Today, wind energy contribute to 1% of global electricity.
Ten years from now, predictions estimate that wind energy will contribute to 6% of global electricity supply.
Over the last 5 years, over 30% of all new installed electricity generating capacity in EU has been in form of wind energy.
The EU-Committment of 20-2020 will require 12-15% of Europes electricity to be powered by wind by 2020.
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 17
Source: BTM report November 2008
“Exploding” China stretching supply chain further
Installed capacity in China
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
MW
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Cu
mu
lati
ve M
W
MW Cumulative MWInstalled MWForecast
National targets
2020
2010
already passed during 2007
Most likely passed during 2011
2030
100.000 MWMost likely passed before 2020
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 18
Annual Wind Power DevelopmentActual 1990-2007 & Forecast 2008-2012
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 1995 2000 2007 2012
MW
Europe USA Asia Rest of World ExistingSource: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
BTM-report 2004
Predicting the future of wind energy business…..
Most likely Scenario ?
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 19
SKF
The Knowledge
Engineering Company
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